Do derivatives have a role in the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers?

In this paper we examine the extent to which derivatives are used to affect the risk-shifting behaviour of Australian equity fund managers. We find, after periods of good and poor performance, the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers is different between derivative users and non-users. Our results support the gaming and active competition hypotheses but there is little support for the cash flow hypothesis. The study also allows for a complex reporting environment by analysing data across three alternate time periods: the calendar year, financial year and quarterly frames. Given that our results are not consistent across time periods for users and non-users of derivatives, some caution in interpretation is required.

Caregivers' beliefs about practice in infant child care programmes

Infant caregivers in centre-based child care were videotaped as they interacted with the children during routine and non-routine activities. During a subsequent interview, the video provided a stimulus for discussion and reflection on practices. Caregivers were also asked to write about their beliefs on good practice in caring for infants. Transcripts of the interviews and the written statements were then analysed for evidence of nave and informed beliefs about caregiving. Most caregivers held nave beliefs and only one caregiver had an informed understanding of professional practice with infants. The usefulness of the analytical framework used in this research is discussed as a means for understanding caregiving practices. It has important implications for approaches to initial professional education of early childhood teachers and for professional development programmes.

Legal aspects of Web 2.0 activities : management of legal risk associated with use of YouTube, MySpace and Second Life

This Report, prepared for Smart Service Queensland (“SSQ”), addresses legal issues, areas of risk and other factors associated with activities conducted on three popular online platforms—YouTube, MySpace and Second Life (which are referred to throughout this Report as the “Platforms”). The Platforms exemplify online participatory spaces and behaviours, including blogging and networking, multimedia sharing, and immersive virtual environments.

Stroke education : promising effects on the health beliefs of those at risk

Background: The effect of patient education on reducing stroke has had mixed effects, raising questions about how to achieve optimal benefit. Because past evaluations have typically lacked an appropriate theoretical base, the design of past research may have missed important effects. --------- Method: This study used a social cognitive framework to identify variables that might change in response to education. A mixed design was used to evaluate two approaches to an intervention, both of which included education. Fifty seniors completed a measure of stroke knowledge and beliefs twice: before and after an intervention that was either standard (educational brochure plus activities that were not about stroke) or enhanced (educational brochure plus activities designed to enhance beliefs about stroke). Outcome measures were health beliefs, intention to exercise to reduce stroke, and stroke knowledge. --------- Results: Selected beliefs changed significantly over time but not differentially across conditions. Beliefs that changed were (a) perceived susceptibility to stroke and (b) perceived benefit of exercise to reduce risk. Benefit beliefs, in particular, were strongly and positively associated with intention to exercise. -------- Conclusion: Findings suggest that basic approaches to patient education may influence health beliefs. More effective stroke prevention programs may result from continued consideration of the role of health beliefs in such programs.

Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Can book-to-market and size be risk factors that predict economic growth in Asia's emerging economies?

We investigate whether the two 2 zero cost portfolios, SMB and HML, have the ability to predict economic growth for markets investigated in this paper. Our findings show that there are only a limited number of cases when the coefficients are positive and significance is achieved in an even more limited number of cases. Our results are in stark contrast to Liew and Vassalou (2000) who find coefficients to be generally positive and of a similar magnitude. We go a step further and also employ the methodology of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994) and once again fail to support the risk-based hypothesis of Liew and Vassalou (2000). In sum, we argue that search for a robust economic explanation for firm size and book-to-market equity effects needs sustained effort as these two zero cost portfolios do not represent economically relevant risk.

Education reform for at-risk youth : a social capital approach

Using the Education Queensland Reform Agenda to illustrate examples and approaches to education reform, this article discusses education reform for at-risk youth. It argues that the characteristics of modernity, the rise of Mode 2 Society, and the power asymmetries associated with the emergence of the politico-economic will contain the reform ambitions of the Education Queensland and other education reform agendas. It is proposed that the State adopt a transgressive and complimentary set of reform strategies including the adoption of distributed governance, making available meaningful school performance data, encouraging experimentation and facilitating broad stakeholder, community and neighbourhood engagement in school planning and operations. The article argues that measures such as these will assist to mobilize trust, minimise social fragmentation, generate and regenerate community resources, build cohesion, foster the socio-cultural-self-identities of 'at-risk' youth and will assist youth to achieve full participation in a robust and vibrant democracy.

Willingness to buy GM food products : the role of uncertainty orientation, consumer risk perceptions and information search in consumers from Australia

Genetically modified (GM) food products are the source of much controversy and in the context of consumer behaviour, the way in which consumers perceive such food products is of paramount importance both theoretically and practically. Despite this, relatively little research has focused on GM food products from a consumer perspective, and as such, this study seeks to better understand what effects consumer willingness to buy GM food products in Australian consumers.

Case-control study of early childhood caries in Australia

The aim of this case-control study of 617 children was to investigate early childhood caries (ECC) risk indicators in a non-fluoridated region in Australia. ECC cases were recruited from childcare facilities, public hospitals and private specialist clinics to source children from different socioeconomic backgrounds. Non-ECC controls were recruited from the same childcare facilities. A multinomial logistic modelling approach was used for statistical analysis. The results showed that a large percentage of children tested positive for Streptococcus mutans if their mothers also tested positive. A common risk indicator found in ECC children from childcare facilities and public hospitals was visible plaque (OR 4.1, 95% CI 1.0-15.9, and OR 8.7, 95% CI 2.3-32.9, respectively). Compared to ECC-free controls, the risk indicators specific to childcare cases were enamel hypoplasia (OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.0-18.3), difficulty in cleaning child's teeth (OR 6.6, 95% CI 2.2-19.8), presence of S. mutans (OR 4.8, 95% CI 0.7-32.6), sweetened drinks (OR 4.0, 95% CI 1.2-13.6) and maternal anxiety (OR 5.1, 95% CI 1.1-25.0). Risk indicators specific to public hospital cases were S. mutans presence in child (OR 7.7, 95% CI 1.3-44.6) or mother (OR 8.1, 95% CI 0.9-72.4), ethnicity (OR 5.6, 95% CI 1.4-22.1), and access of mother to pension or health care card (OR 20.5, 95% CI 3.5-119.9). By contrast, a history of chronic ear infections was found to be protective for ECC in childcare children (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.09-0.82). The biological, socioeconomic and maternal risk indicators demonstrated in the present study can be employed in models of ECC that can be usefully applied for future longitudinal studies.

Teachers reporting child sexual abuse : towards evidence-based reform of law, policy and practice

This report presents the results of the largest study ever conducted into the law, policy and practice of primary school teachers’ reporting of child sexual abuse in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. The study included the largest Australian survey of teachers about reporting sexual abuse, in both government and non-government schools (n=470). Our research has produced evidence-based findings to enhance law, policy and practice about teachers’ reporting of child sexual abuse. The major benefits of our findings and recommendations are to: • Show how the legislation in each State can be improved; • Show how the policies in government and non-government school sectors can be improved; and • Show how teacher training can be improved. These improvements can enhance the already valuable contribution that teachers are making to identify cases of child sexual abuse. Based on the findings of our research, this report proposes solutions to issues in seven key areas of law, policy and practice. These solutions are relevant for State Parliaments, government and non-government educational authorities, and child protection departments. The solutions in each State are practicable, low-cost, and align with current government policy approaches. Implementing these solutions will: • protect more children from sexual abuse; • save cost to governments and society; • develop a professional teacher workforce better equipped for their child protection role; and • protect government and school authorities from legal liability.

Teachers’ attitudes toward reporting child sexual abuse : problems with existing research leading to new scale development

This paper details a systematic literature review identifying problems in extant research relating to teachers’ attitudes towards reporting child sexual abuse, and offers a model for new attitude scale development and testing. Scale development comprised a five-phase process grounded in contemporary attitude theories including: a) developing the initial item pool; b) conducting a panel review; c) refining the scale via an expert focus group; d) building content validity through cognitive interviews; e) assessing internal consistency via field testing. The resulting 21-item scale displayed construct validity in preliminary testing. The scale may prove useful as a research tool, given the theoretical supposition that attitudes may be changed with time, context, experience, and education. Further investigation with a larger sample is warranted.

Parental beliefs about supervising children when crossing roads and cycling

Pedestrian and cyclist injuries are significant public health issues together accounting for 11-30% of road deaths in highly motorised countries. Children are particularly at risk. In Australia in 2009 children 0-16 years comprised 11.4% of pedestrian deaths and 6.4% of cyclist deaths. Parental attitudes and level of supervision are important to children’s road safety. Results from a telephone survey with parents of children 5-9 years (N=147) are reported. Questions addressed beliefs about preventability of injury, appropriate ages for children to cross the road or cycle independently, and the frequency of holding 5-9 year old children’s hands while crossing the road. Results suggest that parents believe most injuries are preventable and that they personally can act to improve their own safety in the home, on the road, at work, as well as in or on the water. Most parents (68%) indicated children should be 10 years or older before crossing the road or cycling independently. Parents were more likely to report holding younger children’s hands (5-6 years) when crossing the road and less likely to do so for 7-9 year olds. There was a small effect of child gender, with parents more likely to hold boy’s hand than a girl’s.

Combining the parts to make the whole : integrated child and family services in Queensland

Over the past decade, the promotion of 'integrated child and family services' has emerged as a strong and consistent theme within Australian early childhood policy. Fuelling this trend is the belief that integrated service provision is more responsive to holistic family needs, offering better support to parents and thereby promoting better outcomes for young children. Adding further strength is the prevention and early intervention literature, and suggested social and economic benefits of 'effective' early years services and supports. States and territories are introducing new integrated child and family service models and Reflections is continuing to profile these. In this edition, we look at directions and new service models in Queensland, in particular, the new Early Years Centre service model.

Promoting child protection : early childhood education and care services playing their part

Over recent years, there has been a shift in government social policy in Australia toward interest and investment in family support, prevention and early intervention. Central to this new approach to supporting families and promoting better outcomes for children is the development of a continuum of services able to respond to different and changing family needs. This continuum or integrated service system seeks to better connect key human services, such as health, child care, education and family support. This paper explores the role of early childhood education and care (ECEC) services in promoting child protection and strengthening the safety and wellbeing of children.

The problem child in Australian patent law : "fair" basing

The concept of "fair basing" is widely acknowledged as a difficult area of patent law. This article maps the development of fair basing law to demonstrate how some of the difficulties have arisen. Part I of the article traces the development of the branches of patent law that were swept under the nomenclature of "fair basing" by British legislation in 1949. It looks at the early courts' approach to patent construction, examines the early origin of fair basing and what it was intended to achiever. Part II of the article considers the modern interpretation of fair basing, which provides a striking contrast to its historical context. Without any consistent judicial approach to construction the doctrine has developed inappropriately, giving rise to both over-strict and over-generous approaches.