Occupational futures? Divesting real estate and corporate PFI

Property ownership can tie up large amounts of capital and management energy that business could employ more productively elsewhere. Competitive pressures, accounting changes and increasingly sophisticated occupier requirements are building demand for new and innovative ways to satisfy corporate occupation needs. The investment climate is also changing. Falling interest rates and falling inflation can be expected to undermine returns from the traditional FRI lease. In future, investment returns will be more dependent on active and innovative management geared to the needs of occupiers on whom income depends. Occupier and investor interests, therefore, look set to coincide, but unlocking the potential for both parties will depend on developing new finance and investment vehicles that align their respective needs. In the UK, examples include PFI in the public sector and off-balance sheet financing in the private sector. In the USA, “synthetic lease” structures have also become popular. Growing investment market experience in assessing risks and returns suggests scope for further innovative arrangements in the corporate sector. But how can such arrangements be structured? What are the risks, drivers and barriers?

Bias or rationality? The case of UK commercial real estate investment

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis that investment decision making in the UK direct property market does not conform to the assumption of economic rationality underpinning portfolio theory. Design/methodology/approach – The developing behavioural real estate paradigm is used to challenge the idea that investor “man” is able to perform with economic rationality, specifically with reference to the analysis of the spatial dispersion of the entire UK “investible stock” and “investible locations” against observed spatial patterns of institutional investment. Location quotients are derived, combining different data sets. Findings – Considerably greater variation in institutional property holdings is found across the UK than would be expected given the economic and stock characteristics of local areas. This appears to provide evidence of irrationality (in the strict traditional economic sense) in the behaviour of institutional investors, with possible herding underpinning levels of investment that cannot be explained otherwise. Research limitations/implications – Over time a lack of distinction has developed between the cause and effect of comparatively low levels of development and institutional property investment across the regions. A critical examination of decision making and behaviour in practice could break this cycle, and could in turn promote regional economic growth. Originality/value – The entire “population” of observations is used to demonstrate the relationships between economic theory and investor performance exploring, for the first time, stock and local area characteristics.

Cross-country effects of regulatory capital arbitrage

One reason for the recent asset price bubbles in many developed countries could be regulatory capital arbitrage. Regulatory and legal changes can help traditional banks to move their assets off their balance sheets into the lightly regulated shadows and thus enable regulatory arbitrage through the securitized sector. This paper adopts a global vector autoregression (GVAR) methodology to assess the effects of regulatory capital arbitrage on equity prices, house prices and economic activity across 11 OECD countries/ regions. A counterfactual experiment disentangles the effects of regulatory arbitrage following a change in the net capital rule for investment banks in April 2004 and the adoption of the Basel II Accord in June 2004. The results provide evidence for the existence of an international finance multiplier, with about half of the countries overshooting U.S. impulse responses. The counterfactual shows that regulatory arbitrage via the U.S. securitized sector may enhance the cross-country reallocation of capital from housing markets towards equity markets.

Residential investment and sustainable communities

This research examines the scope for more private rented housing as part of securing housing choice and affordability. A comprehensive review covers the current UK planning, housing and investment framework. It examines UK valuation practice and draws lessons from the Netherlands and Canada. UK case studies illustrate how private companies and social organisations are challenging commonly perceived barriers to mixed-use, mixed-tenure and rented housing through imaginative developments and investments. Additionally, the case studies incorporate financial appraisals of actual schemes and illustrate the reasons for different approaches by private and social organisations to assessing financial feasibility, based on their individual objectives. The report provides a practical resource for property professionals, investors and developers as well as an aid to policy makers in understanding property and investment market responses. The research was funded through the Pat Allsop Education Trust.

A word of caution on calculating market-based minimum capital risk requirements

This paper demonstrates that the use of GARCH-type models for the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements (MCRRs) may lead to the production of inaccurate and therefore inefficient capital requirements. We show that this inaccuracy stems from the fact that GARCH models typically overstate the degree of persistence in return volatility. A simple modification to the model is found to improve the accuracy of MCRR estimates in both back- and out-of-sample tests. Given that internal risk management models are currently in widespread usage in some parts of the world (most notably the USA), and will soon be permitted for EC banks and investment firms, we believe that our paper should serve as a valuable caution to risk management practitioners who are using, or intend to use this popular class of models.

Beyond the environmentalist's paradox and the debate on weak versus strong sustainability

Environmentalists generally argue that ecological damage will (eventually) lead to declines in human well-being. From this perspective, the recent introduction of the “environmentalist’s paradox” in BioScience by Raudsepp-Hearne and colleagues (2010) is particularly significant. In essence, Raudsepp-Hearne and colleagues (2010) claimed that although ecosystem services have been degraded, human well-being—paradoxically—has increased. In this article, we show that this debate is in fact rooted in a broader discussion on weak sustainability versus strong sustainability(the substitutability of human-made capital for natural capital). We warn against the reductive nature of focusing only on a stock–flow framework in which a natural-capital stock produces ecosystem services. Concretely, we recommend a holistic approach in which the complexity, irreversibility, uncertainty, and ethical predicaments intrinsic to the natural environment and its connections to humanity are also considered.

Gender, race, and heterogeneous effects of epidemic malaria on human capital and income

This article investigates the impact of exposure to a serious, unusual, and unforeseen malaria epidemic in northeast Brazil in 1938–40 on subsequent human capital attainment and income. Arguing the event was exogenous, the article exploits cohort and regional heterogeneity in exposure to identify effects. Results are consistent with differential mortality rates according to gender and socioeconomic status, such that heterogeneous selection and scarring effects are observed. Analyzing by gender alone, positive (selection) effects are found for men, and mixed (positive and negative) effects for women. Allowing for heterogeneity by race, selection effects persist for men. In contrast, positive (selection) effects are observed for nonwhite women, and negative (scarring) effects for white women. Results contribute to evidence suggesting that exposure to negative environmental shocks affects human capital attainment, while also suggesting it heterogeneously affects cohort composition.

State ownership, bank loans, and corporate investment

We study the effect of bank loans on Chinese publicly listed firms' investment decisions based on the underinvestment and overinvestment theories of leverage. Evidence from China is of particular importance because China is the world's largest emerging and transitional economy. At first we show that there is a negative relationship between bank loan ratios and investment for Chinese publicly listed firms. And this negative relationship is much stronger for firms with low growth than firms with high growth. Secondly, we find that both short-term and long-term loan ratios are negatively correlated with investment. However, the higher the long-term loan ratios are, the weaker the negative relationship between long-term loan ratios and investment is. Thirdly, firm ownership only matters to the effect of short-term bank loans on investment in our sample. That is, the negative relationship between short-term loan ratios and investment is weaker for SOEs than for non-SOEs. Lastly, we show that the reform of China's banking system in 2003 has not strengthened the negative relationship between bank loans and investment. Our findings suggest that although Chinese state-owned banks are severely intervened by government policies, they still have a disciplining role on firms' investment, especially in firms with low growth.

The career competencies of self-initiated and assigned expatriates: assessing the development of career capital over time

Building on a modern careers approach, we assess the effects of working abroad on individuals’ career capital. Given the dearth of longitudinal studies, we return to a sample of economics graduates in Finland eight years later. We measure changes in three dimensions of career capital; ‘knowing how’, ‘knowing whom’, ‘knowing why’ and find that company assigned expatriates learn more than self-initiated expatriates. All three career capital areas benefit from international experience and all are increasingly valued over time. Based on our findings we conclude that a dynamic notion of career capital acquisition and use is needed. Managerial implications include the need for a wider view of talent management for international businesses.

Mercados internos de capital: uma questão de sobrevivência

Procuramos apresentar neste trabalho a importância e os efeitos dos mercados internos de capitais, e as conseqüências quando da sua aplicação. Para isso, aplicamos inicialmente um modelo básico de mercados internos de capitais, avaliando os pontos atingidos e algumas idéias não abrangidas por ele. Exemplificamos com uma situação de aplicação de recursos entre divisões de uma pequena empresa diversificada e seu fracasso devido à má alocação desses recursos. Na seqüência, identificamos modelos que, quando aplicados às situações em que os mercados internos de capitais não funcionaram, foram capazes de apontar o porquê, indicando possíveis interferências e impedimentos. Por fim, aplicamos um modelo que permite comprovar a ineficiência na transferência de recursos quando esses vão na direção das divisões com as piores oportunidades de investimento.

Debt composition and exchange rate balance sheet effects in Brazil: A firm level analysis

In this paper we study the interaction between macroeconomic environment and firms’ balance sheet effects in Brazil during the 1990’s. We start by assessing the influence of macroeconomic conditions on firms’ debt composition in Brazil. We found that larger firms tend to change debt currency composition more in response to a change in the exchange rate risk than small firms. We then proceed to investigate if and how exchange rate balance sheet effects affected the firms’ investment decisions. We test directly the exchange rate balance sheet effect on investment. Contrary to earlier findings (Bleakley and Cowan, 2002), we found that firms more indebted in foreign currency tend to invest less when there is an exchange rate devaluation. We tried different controls for the competitiveness effect. First, we control directly for the effect of the exchange rate on exports and imported inputs. We then pursue an alternative investigation strategy, inspired by the credit channel literature. According to this perspective, Tobin’s q can provide an adequate control for the competitiveness effect on investment. Our results provide supporting evidence for imperfect capital markets, and for a negative exchange rate balance sheet effect in Brazil. The results concerning the exchange rate balance sheet effect on investment are statistically significant and robust across the different specifications. We tested the results across different periods, classified according to the macroeconomic environment. Our findings suggest that the negative exchange rate balance sheet effect we found in the whole sample is due to the floating exchange rate period. We also found that exchange rate devaluations have important negative impact on both cash flows and sales of indebted firms. Furthermore, the impact of exchange rate variations is asymmetric, and the significant effect detected when no asymmetry is imposed is engendered by exchange rate devaluations.

Mandatory profit sharing, entrepreneurial incentives and capital accumulation

The impact of a mandatory tax on profits which is transferred to workers is analyzed in a general equilibrium entrepreneurial model. In the short run, this distortion reduces the number of firms and the aggregate output. In the long run, if capital and labor are bad substitutes, it fosters capital accumulation and increases the aggregate output. In a small open economy with free movement of capital, it improves the welfare of the economy's average individual. One concludes that the benefits of sharing schemes may go beyond the short run employment-stabilization goal focused by the profit sharing literature.

Environmental protection and economic growth

This paper explores the link between environmental policy and economic growth by employing an extension of the AK Growth Model. We include a state equation for renewable natural resources. We assume that the change in environmental regulations induces costs and that economic agents also derive some utility from capital stock accumulation vis-`a-vis the environment. Using the Hopf bifurcation theorem, we show that cyclical environmental policy strategies are optimal, providing theoretical support for the Environmental Kuznets Curve.

Efeitos dinâmicos de programas de estabilização

Com o emprego do modelo de dois setores de acumulação ótima de capital em economia aberta, determina-se o impacto sobre a trajetória do câmbio, dos salários, do investimento, da poupança e, portanto, da dívida externa e do estoque de capital, de uma elevação permanente e não antecipada da produtividade da economia. Em geral, após um choque positivo permanente de produtividade há redução da poupança, piora do balanço de pagamentos em transações correntes e valorização do câmbio. Todos fenômenos que do ponto de vista do modelo são de equilíbrio intertemporal, conseqüência da elevação da renda permanente e do excesso de demanda por bens domésticos que sucede o ganho de produtividade. Supondo que os programas de estabilização elevaram a produtividade da economia é possível com a estrutura analítica construída racionalizar qualitativamente os fenômenos observados após estes planos.

Os impactos dos investimentos estrangeiros diretos na evolução da balança comercial brasileira no período pós-real

The purpose of the present study is to discuss the eventual relationship between foreign direct investment in Brazil and trade balance, considering the period after the beginning of "Plano Real" on 1994, which presented a new currency regime and a new profile of Brazilian macroeconomy. It is important to state that there is a controversial debate around the question, since those investments are seen as positive to receiving countries by some authors and negative by other ones. Those who are favorable, argue that the recent attitude assumed by a lot of companies towards internalization is changing the modus operandi in some markets, providing a much more competitive framework. It is also remarkable - they also mention - the potential advantages brought by these new strategies. On the other hand, some authors defend that it increases the exposure of the country that receives such resources, since the subsidiaries of those companies operate under marketing strategies of profit maximization, considered the competitive environment they face. We will go over these opinions troughout the study, trying also to capture the reasons that usually motivate foreign companies to look for new markets and branches and also the effects on receiving country's Balance of Payments. Besides that point, the approach presented will try to answer if the increase of foreign capital stock in Brazil helps to explain some positive response from the country's trade balance, and more, on Balance of Payments. It is also important to mention that the considered period is extremely representative, mainly when considered the huge amounts involved and the increasing liberalization verified in brazilian's external policies since 1990. There is special concern, troughout the study, to define the pattern of such investments, and more, the impacts that those resources brought to public budget. The present study will focus on official data, published by Central Bank of Brazil, mainly those ones regarding Census of Foreign Capitals, as well as the referable to the evolution of Balance of Payments. Finally, based on statistical procedures, it will be provided multiple regressions on available data that will help the reader to capture the effects of some selected variables, which will bring a much more oriented analysis to the discussion.