Are mortgage lenders guilty of the housing bubble? A UK perspective

Existing theoretical models of house prices and credit rely on continuous rationality of consumers, an assumption that has been frequently questioned in recent years. Meanwhile, empirical investigations of the relationship between prices and credit are often based on national-level data, which is then tested for structural breaks and asymmetric responses, usually with subsamples. Earlier author argues that local markets are structurally different from one another and so the coefficients of any estimated housing market model should vary from region to region. We investigate differences in the price–credit relationship for 12 regions of the UK. Markov-switching is introduced to capture asymmetric market behaviours and turning points. Results show that credit abundance had a large impact on house prices in Greater London and nearby regions alongside a strong positive feedback effect from past house price movements. This impact is even larger in Greater London and the South East of England when house prices are falling, which are the only instances where the credit effect is more prominent than the positive feedback effect. A strong positive feedback effect from past lending activity is also present in the loan dynamics. Furthermore, bubble probabilities extracted using a discrete Kalman filter neatly capture market turning points.

COMPARISONS OF THE INTERSTELLAR MAGNETIC FIELD DIRECTIONS OBTAINED FROM THE IBEX RIBBON AND INTERSTELLAR POLARIZATIONS

Variations in the spatial configuration of the interstellar magnetic field (ISMF) near the Sun can be constrained by comparing the ISMF direction at the heliosphere found from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) spacecraft observations of a ""Ribbon"" of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs), with the ISMF direction derived from optical polarization data for stars within similar to 40 pc. Using interstellar polarization observations toward similar to 30 nearby stars within similar to 90 degrees of the heliosphere nose, we find that the best fits to the polarization position angles are obtained for a magnetic pole directed toward ecliptic coordinates of lambda, beta similar to 263 degrees, 37 degrees (or galactic coordinates of l, b similar to 38 degrees, 23 degrees), with uncertainties of +/- 35 degrees based on the broad minimum of the best fits and the range of data quality. This magnetic pole is 33 degrees from the magnetic pole that is defined by the center of the arc of the ENA Ribbon. The IBEX ENA ribbon is seen in sight lines that are perpendicular to the ISMF as it drapes over the heliosphere. The similarity of the polarization and Ribbon directions for the local ISMF suggests that the local field is coherent over scale sizes of tens of parsecs. The ISMF vector direction is nearly perpendicular to the flow of local interstellar material (ISM) through the local standard of rest, supporting a possible local ISM origin related to an evolved expanding magnetized shell. The local ISMF direction is found to have a curious geometry with respect to the cosmic microwave background dipole moment.

Contrasting phylogenetic signals and evolutionary rates in floral traits of Neotropical lianas

The diversity of floral forms has long been considered a prime example of radiation through natural selection. However, little is still known about the evolution of floral traits, a critical piece of evidence for the understanding of the processes that may have driven flower evolution. We studied the pattern of evolution of quantitative floral traits in a group of Neotropical lianas (Bignonieae, Bignoniaceae) and used a time-calibrated phylogeny as basis to: (1) test for phylogenetic signal in 16 continuous floral traits; (2) evaluate the rate of evolution in those traits; and (3) reconstruct the ancestral state of the individual traits. Variation in floral traits among extant species of Bignonieae was highly explained by their phylogenetic history. However, opposite signals were found in floral traits associated with the attraction of pollinators (calyx and corolla) and pollen transfer (androecium and gynoecium), suggesting a differential role of selection in different floral whorls. Phylogenetic independent contrasts indicate that traits evolved at different rates, whereas ancestral character state reconstructions indicate that the ancestral size of most flower traits was larger than the mean observed sizes of the same traits in extant species. The implications of these patterns for the reproductive biology of Bignonieae are discussed. (C) 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 102, 378-390.

Tenacity and silk investment of two orb weavers: considerations about diversification of the Araneoidea

Orbiculariae consists of two major clades: the cribellate Deinopidea and the much more diverse ecribellate Araneoidea. It has been hypothesized that the higher diversity of Araneoidea is a consequence of the superiority of the viscid orb web. However, this explanation seems incomplete: for example, cribellate silk may perform better than viscid silk in some contexts. Here, we consider the hypothesis that the diversification of Araneoidea was facilitated by changes in microhabitat occupation behavior due to the cheaper viscid orb web. In the present work we investigate the idea that the reduction in site tenacity caused by the emergence of the viscid orb web has led to an increase in the exploration of different resources and to a greater diversification of the Arancoidea through the evolutionary time. To test this idea, we evaluated the response of one cribellate orb web spider (Zosis geniculata Olivier 1789, Uloboridae) and one ecribellate orb web spider (Metazygia rogenhoferi Keyserling 1878, Arancidae) to abrupt prey absence. The changes in site tenacity and the day-to-day investment in web silk were evaluated. Spiders with three-dimensional webs tend to exhibit greater site tenacity than spiders making orb webs. Zosis geniculata and M. rogenhoferi show similar site tenacity when prey is ample. When prey is unavailable, the tenacity of the cribellate species increases while the tenacity of the ecribellate remains unchanged, and the silk investment of both species decreases. However, this decrease in silk investment is more extensive in Z. geniculata. These results coincide with the idea that a less costly ecribellate orb web leads to a lower tenacity and suggest that more frequent microhabitat abandonment in a context of insect radiation (Neiptera) leads to more diverse and opportunistic exploration of microhabitats that, in the long term, may be one explanation for the greater Araneoidea diversification.

First evidence of insect attraction by a Southern Hemisphere Splachnaceae: The case of Tayloria dubyi Broth. in the Reserve Biosphere Cape Horn, Chile

The moss Tayloria dubyi (Splachnaceae) is endemic to the subantarctic Magallanes ecoregion where it grows exclusively on bird dung and perhaps only on feces of the goose Chloephaga picta, a unique habitat among Splachnaceae. Some species of Splachnaceae from the Northern Hemisphere are known to recruit coprophilous flies as a vector to disperse their spores by releasing intense odors mimicking fresh clung or decaying corpses. The flies land on the capsule, and may get in contact with the protruding mass of spores that stick to the insect body. The dispersal strategy relies on the spores falling off when the insect reaches fresh droppings or carrion. Germination is thought to be rapid and a new population is quickly established over the entire substrate. The objectives of this investigation were to determine whether the coprophilous T. dubyi attracts flies and to assess the taxonomic diversity of the flies visiting this moss. For this, fly traps were set up above mature sporophyte bearing populations in two peatlands on Navarino Island. We captured 64 flies belonging to the Muscidae (Palpibracus chilensis), Tachinidae (Dasyuromyia sp) and Sarcophagidae (not identified to species) above sporophytes of T. dubyi, whereas no flies were captured in control traps set up above Sphagnum mats nearby.

Voluntary action and causality in temporal binding

Previous studies have documented temporal attraction in perceived times of actions and their effects. While some authors argue that voluntary action is a necessary condition for this phenomenon, others claim that the causal relationship between action and effect is the crucial ingredient. In the present study, we investigate voluntary action and causality as the necessary and sufficient conditions for temporal binding. We used a variation of the launching effect proposed by Michotte, in which participants controlled the launch stimulus in some blocks. Volunteers reported causality ratings and estimated the interval between the two events. Our results show dissociations between causality ratings and temporal estimation. While causality ratings are not affected by voluntary action, temporal bindings were only found in the presence of both voluntary action and high causality. Our results indicate that voluntary action and causality are both necessary for the emergence of temporal binding.

The relation between action, predictability and temporal contiguity in temporal binding

Previous studies have documented a subjective temporal attraction between actions and their effects. This finding, named intentional binding, is thought to be the result of a cognitive function that links actions to their consequences. Although several studies have tried to outline the necessary and sufficient conditions for intentional binding, a quantitative comparison between the roles of temporal contiguity, predictability and voluntary action and the evaluation of their interactions is difficult due to the high variability of the temporal binding measurements. In the present study, we used a novel methodology to investigate the properties of intentional binding. Subjects judged whether an auditory stimulus, which could either be triggered by a voluntary finger lift or be presented after a visual temporal marker unrelated to any action, was presented synchronously with a reference stimulus. In three experiments, the predictability, the interval between action and consequence and the presence of action itself were manipulated. The results indicate that (1) action is a necessary condition for temporal binding; (2) a fixed interval between the two events is not sufficient to cause the effect and (3) only in the presence of voluntary action do temporal predictability and contiguity play a significant role in modulating the effect.These findings are discussed in the context of the relationship between intentional binding and temporal expectation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inhibition of Trypanosoma brucei glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase by human steroids and their effects on the viability of cultured parasites

Dehydroepiandrosterone ( DHEA) is known as an intermediate in the synthesis of mammalian steroids and a potent uncompetitive inhibitor of mammalian glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDH), but not the enzyme from plants and lower eukaryotes. G6PDH catalyzes the first step of the pentose-phosphate pathway supplying cells with ribose 5-phosphate, a precursor of nucleic acid synthesis, and NADPH for biosynthetic processes and protection against oxidative stress. In this paper we demonstrate that also G6PDH of the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma brucei is uncompetitively inhibited by DHEA and epiandrosterone (EA), with K(i) values in the lower micromolar range. A viability assay confirmed the toxic effect of both steroids on cultured T. brucei bloodstream form cells. Additionally, RNAi mediated reduction of the G6PDH level in T. brucei bloodstream forms validated this enzyme as a drug target against Human African Trypanosomiasis. Together these findings show that inhibition of G6PDH by DHEA derivatives may lead to the development of a new class of anti-trypanosomatid compounds. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the localization of water-soluble porphyrins in micellar systems evaluated by static and time-resolved frequency-domain fluorescence techniques

Fluorescence quenching of meso-tetrakis-4-sulfonatophenyl (TPPS4) and meso-tetrakis-4-N-methylpyridil (TMPyP) porphyrins is studied in aqueous solution and upon addition of micelles of sodium dodecylsulfate (SDS), cetyltrimethylammonium chloride (CTAC), N-hexadecyl-N,N-dimethyl-3-ammonio-1-propanesulfonate (HPS) and t-octylphenoxypolyethoxyethanol (Triton X-100). Potassium iodide (KI) was used as quencher. Steady-state Stern-Volmer plots were best fitted by a quadratic equation, including dynamic (K-D) and static (K-s) quenching. Ks was significantly smaller than K-D. Frequency-domain fluorescence lifetimes allowed estimating bimolecular quenching constants, k(q). At 25 degrees C, in aqueous solution, TMPyP shows k(q), values a factor of 2-3 higher than the diffusional limit. TPPS4 shows collisional quenching with pH dependent k(q) values. For TMPyP quenching results are consistent with reported binding constants: a significant reduction of quenching takes place for SDS, a moderate reduction is observed for H PS and almost no change is seen for Triton X-100. Similar data were obtained at 50 C. For CTAC-TPPS4 system an enhancement of quenching was observed as compared to pure buffer. This is probably associated to accumulation of iodide at the cationic micellar interface. The attraction between CTAC headgroups and 1(-), and repulsion between SDS and 1(-), enhances and reduces the fluorescence quenching, respectively, of porphyrins located at the micellar interface. The small quenching of TPPS4 in Triton X-100 is consistent with strong binding as reported in the literature. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the motion under focal attraction in a rotating medium

New results are established here on the phase portraits and bifurcations of the kinematic model in system (1), first presented by H.K. Wilson in [3], and by him attributed to L. Markus (unpublished). A new, self-sufficient, study which extends that of [3] and allows an essential conclusion for the applicability of the model is reported here.

Protein Adsorption onto Polyelectrolyte Layers: Effects of Protein Hydrophobicity and Charge Anisotropy

Ellipsometry was used to investigate the influence of ionic strength (I) and pH on the adsorption of bovine serum albumin (BSA) or beta-lactoglobulin (BLG) onto preabsorbed layers of two polycations: poly(diallyldimethylammonium chloride) (PDADMAC) or poly(4-vinylpyridine bromide) quaternized with linear aliphatic chains of two (QPVP-C2) or five (QPVP-C5) carbons. Comparisons among results for the three polycations reveal hydrophobic interactions, while comparisons between BSA and BLG-proteins of very similar isoelectric points (pI)-indicate the importance of protein charge anisotropy. At pH close to pI, the ionic strength dependence of the adsorbed amount of protein (Gamma) displayed maxima in the range 10 < I < 25 mM corresponding to Debye lengths close to the protein radii. Visualization of protein charge by Delphi suggested that these ionic strength conditions corresponded to suppression of long-range repulsion between polycations and protein positive domains, without diminution of short-range attraction between polycation segments and locally negative protein domains, in a manner similar to the behavior of PE-protein complexes in solution.(1-4) This description was consistent with the disappearance of the maxima at pH either above or below pI. In the former case, Gamma values decrease exponentially with I(1/2), due to screening of attractions, while in the latter case adsorption of both proteins decreased at low I due to strong repulsion. Close to or below pI both proteins adsorbed more strongly onto QPVP-C5 than onto QPVP-C2 or PDADMAC due to hydrophobic interactions with the longer alkyl group. Above pI, the adsorption was more pronounced with PDADMAC because these chains may assume more loosely bound layers due to lower linear charge density.

Spectroscopic and theoretical studies of some N,N-diethyl-2-[(4 `-substituted)phenylsulfonyl]acetamides

The analysis of the IR carbonyl band of the N,N-diethyl-2-[(4`-substituted)phenylsulfonyl]acetamides Et(2)NC(O)CH(2)S(O)(2)-C(6)H(4)-Y (Y = OMe 1, Me 2,1-13, Cl 4, Br 5, NO(2) 6) supported by B3LYP/6-31G(d,p) calculations for 3, indicated the existence of three pairs (anti and syn) of cis (c) and gauche (g(1) and g(2)) conformers in the gas phase, being the gauche conformers significantly more stable than the cis ones. The anti geometry is more stable than the syn one, for each pair of cis and gauche conformers. The summing up of the orbital (NBO analysis) and electrostatic interactions justifies quite well the populations and the v(CO) frequencies of the anti and syn pairs of c, g(1) and g(2) conformers. The IR higher carbonyl frequency component whose population is ca. 10%, in CCl(4), may be ascribed to the least stable and most polar cis conformer pair (in the gas phase) and the lower frequency component whose population is ca. 90%, to the summing up of the populations of the two most stable and least polar gauche conformer pairs (g(1) and g(2)) (in the gas phase). The reversal of the cis(c)/gauche (g(1) + g(2)) population ratio observed in chloroform ca. 60% (cis)/40% (gauche) and the occurrence of the most polar cis(c) conformer only, in acetonitrile, strongly suggests the coalescence of the two gauche components in a unique carbonyl band in solution. A further support to this rationalization is given by the single point PCM solvation model performed by HF/6-31G(d,p) method, which showed a progressive increase of the c/(g(1) + g(2)) ratio going from gas to CCl(4), to CHCl(3) and to CH(3)CN. X-ray single crystal analysis of 4 indicates that this compound assumes, in the solid state, the syn-clinal (gauche) conformation with respect to the [O=C-CH(2)-S] moiety, and the most stable anti geometry relative to the [C(O)N(CH(2)CH(3))(2)] fragment. In order to obtain larger energy gain from the crystal packing the molecules of 4 are linked in centrosymmetric dimers through two C-H center dot center dot center dot O interactions (C-H([O-Ph])center dot center dot center dot O([SO2])) forming a step ladder. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble?

A forte alta dos imóveis no Brasil nos últimos anos iniciou um debate sobre a possível existência de uma bolha especulativa. Dada a recente crise do crédito nos Estados Unidos, é factível questionar se a situação atual no Brasil pode ser comparada à crise americana. Considerando argumentos quantitativos e fundamentais, examina-se o contexto imobiliário brasileiro e questiona-se a sustentabilidade em um futuro próximo. Primeiramente, analisou-se a taxa de aluguel e o nível de acesso aos imóveis e também utilizou-se um modelo do custo real para ver se o mercado está em equilíbrio o não. Depois examinou-se alguns fatores fundamentais que afetam o preço dos imóveis – oferta e demanda, crédito e regulação, fatores culturais – para encontrar evidências que justificam o aumento dos preços dos imóveis. A partir dessas observações tentou-se chegar a uma conclusão sobre a evolução dos preços no mercado imobiliário brasileiro. Enquanto os dados sugerem que os preços dos imóveis estão supervalorizados em comparação ao preço dos aluguéis, há evidências de uma legítima demanda por novos imóveis na emergente classe média brasileira. Um risco maior pode estar no mercado de crédito, altamente alavancado em relação ao consumidor brasileiro. No entanto, não se encontrou evidências que sugerem mais do que uma temporária estabilização ou correção no preço dos imóveis.

Asset float and speculative bubbles

We model the relationship between ftoat (the tradeable shares of an asset) and stock price bubbles. Investors trade a stock that initiaUy has a limited ftoat because of insider lock-up restrictions but the tradeable shares of which increase over time as these restrictions expire. A speculative bubble arises because investors, with heterogeneous beliefs due to overconfidence and facing short-sales constraints, anticipate the option to reseU the stock to buyers with even higher valuations. With limited risk absorption capacity, this resale option depends on ftoat as investors anticipate the change in asset supply over time and speculate over the degree of insider selling. Our model yields implications consistent with the behavior of internet stock prices during the late nineties, such as the bubble, share turnover and volatility decreasing with ftoat and stock prices tending to drop on the lock-up expiration date though it is known to aU in advance.

Differences in the perception of interest representation: a comparision of Brasília and Brussels lobbying activity

The research topic of this paper is focused on the analysis of how trade associations perceive lobbying in Brussels and in Brasília. The analysis will be centered on business associations located in Brasília and Brussels as the two core centers of decision-making and as an attraction for the lobbying practice. The underlying principles behind the comparison between Brussels and Brasilia are two. Firstof all because the European Union and Brazil have maintained diplomatic relations since 1960. Through these relations they have built up close historical, cultural, economic and political ties. Their bilateral political relations culminated in 2007 with the establishment of a Strategic Partnership (EEAS website,n.d.). Over the years, Brazil has become a key interlocutor for the EU and it is the most important market for the EU in Latin America (European Commission, 2007). Taking into account the relations between EU and Brazil, this research could contribute to the reciprocal knowledge about the perception of lobby in the respective systems and the importance of the non-market strategy when conducting business. Second both EU and Brazilian systems have a multi-level governance structure: 28 Member States in the EU and 26 Member States in Brazil; in both systems there are three main institutions targeted by lobbying practice. The objective is to compare how differences in the institutional environments affect the perception and practice of lobbying, where institutions are defined as ‘‘regulative, normative, and cognitive structures and activities that provide stability and meaning to social behavior’’ (Peng et al., 2009). Brussels, the self-proclaimed "Capital of Europe”, is the headquarters of the European Union and has one of the highest concentrations of political power in the world. Four of the seven Institutions of the European Union are based in Brussels: the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council and the European Commission (EU website, n.d.). As the power of the EU institutions has grown, Brussels has become a magnet for lobbyists, with the latest estimates ranging from between 15,000 and 30,000 professionals representing companies, industry sectors, farmers, civil society groups, unions etc. (Burson Marsteller, 2013). Brasília is the capital of Brazil and the seat of government of the Federal District and the three branches of the federal government of Brazilian legislative, executive and judiciary. The 4 city also hosts 124 foreign embassies. The presence of the formal representations of companies and trade associations in Brasília is very limited, but the governmental interests remain there and the professionals dealing with government affairs commute there. In the European Union, Brussels has established a Transparency Register that allows the interactions between the European institutions and citizen’s associations, NGOs, businesses, trade and professional organizations, trade unions and think tanks. The register provides citizens with a direct and single access to information about who is engaged in This process is important for the quality of democracy, and for its capacity to deliver adequate policies, matching activities aimed at influencing the EU decision-making process, which interests are being pursued and what level of resources are invested in these activities (Celgene, n.d). It offers a single code of conduct, binding all organizations and self-employed individuals who accept to “play by the rules” in full respect of ethical principles (EC website, n.d). A complaints and sanctions mechanism ensures the enforcement of the rules and addresses suspected breaches of the code. In Brazil, there is no specific legislation regulating lobbying. The National Congress is currently discussing dozens of bills that address regulation of lobbying and the action of interest groups (De Aragão, 2012), but none of them has been enacted for the moment. This work will focus on class lobbying (Oliveira, 2004), which refers to the performance of the federation of national labour or industrial unions, like CNI (National Industry Confederation) in Brazil and the European Banking Federation (EBF) in Brussels. Their performance aims to influence the Executive and Legislative branches in order to defend the interests of their affiliates. When representing unions and federations, class entities cover a wide range of different and, more often than not, conflicting interests. That is why they are limited to defending the consensual and majority interest of their affiliates (Oliveira, 2004). The basic assumption of this work is that institutions matter (Peng et al, 2009) and that the trade associations and their affiliates, when doing business, have to take into account the institutional and regulatory framework where they do business.