Assisting decision-making in Queensland barley production through chance constrained programming

A chance constrained programming model is developed to assist Queensland barley growers make varietal and agronomic decisions in the face of changing product demands and volatile production conditions. Unsuitable or overlooked in many risk programming applications, the chance constrained programming approach nonetheless aptly captures the single-stage decision problem faced by barley growers of whether to plant lower-yielding but potentially higher-priced malting varieties, given a particular expectation of meeting malting grade standards. Different expectations greatly affect the optimal mix of malting and feed barley activities. The analysis highlights the suitability of chance constrained programming to this specific class of farm decision problem.

Triggers of subarachnoid hemorrhage - Role of physical exertion, smoking, and alcohol in the Australasian Cooperative Research on Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Study (ACROSS)

Background and Purpose - Unaccustomed strenuous physical exertion can trigger myocardial infarction, but little is known about the mechanisms precipitating subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods - We identified all cases of first-ever SAH among the combined populations (2.8 million) of 4 urban centers in Australia and New Zealand. Information on the type, time, and intensity of exposures in the 26 hours before the onset of SAH was ascertained by structured interviews. We used the case-crossover technique to assess the risk of SAH associated with transient exposures of moderate to extreme physical exertion, heavy cigarette smoking, and binge alcohol consumption. Results - We registered 432 first-ever cases of SAH (62% women; mean age, 56.5 years). A definite time of onset of SAH was established for 393 patients (91%), and information on the levels of physical activity in the preceding 26 hours was obtained in 338 ( 78%). Of these patients, 19% engaged in moderate to extreme exertion (greater than or equal to5 metabolic equivalents) in the 2 hours before SAH, which was associated with a tripling in the risk of SAH (odds ratio [OR], 2.7; 95% CI, 1.6 to 4.6). There was no evidence of any association between heavy cigarette smoking or binge drinking and risk of SAH in the subsequent 2 hours ( OR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.4 to 3.7; and OR, 0.41; 95% CI, -infinity to 5.3). Habitual exercise did not appear to alter the risk of SAH associated with moderate to extreme exertion. Conclusions - Moderate to extreme physical exertion tripled the risk of SAH, but there was no association between transient heavy smoking or binge drinking and risk of SAH. These data suggest that heavy physical activity may trigger SAH.

Extrinsic versus intrinsic factors in the decline and extinction of Australian marsupials

Recent attempts to explain the susceptibility of vertebrates to declines worldwide have largely focused on intrinsic factors such as body size, reproductive potential, ecological specialization, geographical range and phylogenetic longevity. Here, we use a database of 145 Australian marsupial species to test the effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors in a multivariate comparative approach. We model five intrinsic (body size, habitat specialization, diet, reproductive rate and range size) and four extrinsic (climate and range overlap with introduced foxes, sheep and rabbits) factors. We use quantitative measures of geographical range contraction as indices of decline. We also develop a new modelling approach of phylogenetically independent contrasts combined with imputation of missing values to deal simultaneously with phylogenetic structuring and missing data. One extrinsic variable-geographical range overlap with sheep-was the only consistent predictor of declines. Habitat specialization was independently but less consistently associated with declines. This suggests that extrinsic factors largely determine interspecific variation in extinction risk among Australian marsupials, and that the intrinsic factors that are consistently associated with extinction risk in other vertebrates are less important in this group. We conclude that recent anthropogenic changes have been profound enough to affect species on a continent-wide scale, regardless of their intrinsic biology.

Activity of the medial prefrontal cortex and amygdala underlies one-trial tolerance of rats in the elevated plus-maze

The anxiolytic effects of benzodiazepines are reduced after a single exposure of rats to elevated plus-maze test (EPM). Midazolam showed an anxioselective profile in animals submitted to one session (T1) but did not change the usual exploratory behavior of rats exposed twice (T2) to the EPM. In this study we examined further the one-trial tolerance by performing a factor analysis of the exploratory behavior of rats injected with saline before both trials as well as an immunohistochemistry study for quantification of Fos expression in encephalic structures after these sessions. Factor analysis of all behavioral categories revealed that factor I consisted of anxiety-related categories in T1 whereas these same behavioral categories loaded on factor 2 in T2. Risk assessment was also dissociated as it loaded stronger on T2 (factor 3) than on T1 (factor 4). Locomotor activity in T1 loaded on factor 5. Immunohistochemistry analyses showed that Fos expression predominated in limbic structures in T1 group. The medial prefrontal cortex and amygdala were the main areas activated in T2 group. These data suggest that anxiety and risk assessment behaviors change their valence across the EPM sessions. T2 is characterized by the emergence of a fear factor, more powerful risk assessment and medial prefrontal cortex activation. The amygdala functions as a switch between the anxiety-like patterns of T1 to the cognitive control of fear prevalent in T2. The EPM retest session is proposed as a tool for assessing the cognitive activity of rodents in the control of fear. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tooth loss in Brazilian middle-aged adults: multilevel effects

Objective. To examine the link between tooth loss and multilevel factors in a national sample of middle-aged adults in Brazil. Material and methods. Analyses were based on the 2003 cross-sectional national epidemiological survey of the oral health of the Brazilian population, which covered 13 431 individuals (age 35-44 years). Multistage cluster sampling was used. The dependent variable was tooth loss and the independent variables were classified according to the individual or contextual level. A multilevel negative binomial regression model was adopted. Results. The average tooth loss was 14 (standard deviation 9.5) teeth. Half of the individuals had lost 12 teeth. The contextual variables showed independent effects on tooth loss. It was found that having 9 years or more of schooling was associated with protection against tooth loss (means ratio range 0.68-0.76). Not having visited the dentist and not having visited in the last >= 3 years accounted for increases of 33.5% and 21.3%, respectively, in the risk of tooth loss (P < 0.05). The increase in tooth extraction ratio showed a strong contextual effect on increased risk of tooth loss, besides changing the effect of protective variables. Conclusions. Tooth loss in middle-aged adults has important associations with social determinants of health. This study points to the importance of the social context as the main cause of oral health injuries suffered by most middle-aged Brazilian adults.

Myocardial scintigraphy and clinical stratification as predictors of events in renal transplant candidates

Background: We tested the hypothesis that the universal application of myocardial scanning with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) would result in better risk stratification in renal transplant candidates (RTC) compared with SPECT being restricted to patients who, in addition to renal disease, had other clinical risk factors. Methods: RTCs (n=363) underwent SPECT and clinical risk stratification according to the American Society of Transplantation (AST) algorithm and were followed up until a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) or death. Results: Of the 363 patients, 79 patients (22%) had an abnormal SPECT scan and 270 (74%) were classified as high risk. Both methods correctly identified patients with increased probability of MACE. However, clinical stratification performed better (sensitivity and negative predictive value 99% and 99% vs. 25% and 87%, respectively). High-risk patients with an abnormal SPECT scan had a modest increased risk of events (log-rank = 0.03; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.37; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.02-1.82). Eighty-six patients underwent coronary angiography, and coronary artery disease (CAD) was found in 60%. High-risk patients with CAD had an increased incidence of events (log-rank = 0.008; HR=3.85; 95% CI, 1.46-13.22), but in those with an abnormal SPECT scan, the incidence of events was not influenced by CAD (log-rank = 0.23). Forty-six patients died. Clinical stratification, but not SPECT, correlated with the probability of death (log-rank = 0.02; HR=3.25; 95% CI, 1.31-10.82). Conclusion: SPECT should be restricted to high-risk patients. Moreover, in contrast to SPECT, the AST algorithm was also useful for predicting death by any cause in RTCs and for selecting patients for invasive coronary testing.

Cardiovascular risk factors associated with migraine among the elderly with a low income: The Sao Paulo Ageing & Health Study (SPAH)

Background: To investigate the association between cardiovascular risk-factor profile and migraine in the elderly, we evaluated a population sample of ageing men and women (65 years or more) living in a low-income area in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Patients and Methods: We investigated migraine status and cardiovascular profile from a baseline of 1450 participants (65-102 years of age) of the Sao Paulo Ageing & Health Study (SPAH), a longitudinal population-based study with low-income elderly in Brazil. The following age and sex-adjusted cardiovascular risk factors were analyzed: blood pressure, pulse pressure, serum total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index, smoking, history of hypertension, diabetes and the 10-year risk of myocardial infarction or coronary heart disease death based on the Framingham Risk Score. Results: The overall prevalence of migraine was 11.4%, and it was 3 times more frequent among women than men (15.3% vs 5.4%; P < 0.0001). Migraineurs were younger than non-migraineurs (mean age 70.6 years vs 72.1 years; P = 0.001, respectively). There was no statistically significant difference regarding the cardiovascular risk-factor profile after adjustment for age and sex among migraineurs and non-migraineurs. Only a decrease in the risk of hypertension among women (OR 0.58; 95% CI 0.38-0.90; P = 0.01) was also observed even after adjustment for age. Conclusions: Overall, we did not find a worse cardiovascular risk profile among elderly migraineurs. An inverse association between hypertension and migraine in women warrants further investigation.

Treatment with trastuzumab for 1 year after adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer: a 4-year follow-up of a randomised controlled trial

Background Treatment with adjuvant trastuzumab for 1 year improves disease-free survival and overall survival in patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive early breast cancer. We aimed to assess disease-free survival and overall survival after a median follow-up of 4 years for patients enrolled on the Herceptin Adjuvant (HERA) trial. Methods The HERA trial is an international, multicentre, randomised, open-label, phase 3 trial comparing treatment with trastuzumab for 1 and 2 years with observation after standard neoadjuvant, adjuvant chemotherapy, or both in patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer. The primary endpoint was disease-free survival. After a positive first interim analysis at a median follow-up of 1 year for the comparison of treatment with trastuzumab for 1 year with observation, event-free patients in the observation group were allowed to cross over to receive trastuzumab. We report trial outcomes for the 1-year trastuzumab and observation groups at a median follow-up of 48.4 months (IQR 42.0-56.5) and assess the effect of the extensive crossover to trastuzumab. Our analysis was by intention-to-treat. The HERA trial is registered with the European Clinical Trials Database, number 2005-002385-11. Findings The HERA trial population comprised 1698 patients randomly assigned to the observation group and 1703 to the 1-year trastuzumab group. Intention-to-treat analysis of disease-free survival showed a significant benefit in favour of patients in the 1-year trastuzumab group (4-year disease-free survival 78.6%) compared with the observation group (4-year disease-free survival 72.2%; hazard ratio [HR] 0.76; 95% CI 0.66-0.87; p<0.0001). Intention-to-treat analysis of overall survival showed no significant difference in the risk of death (4-year overall survival 89.3% vs 87.7%, respectively; HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.70-1.04; p=0.11). Overall, 885 patients (52%) of the 1698 patients in the observation group crossed over to receive trastuzumab, and began treatment at median 22.8 months (range 4.5-52.7) from randomisation. In a non-randomised comparison, patients in the selective-crossover cohort had fewer disease-free survival events than patients remaining in the observation group (adjusted HR 0.68; 95% CI 0.51-0.90; p=0.0077). Higher incidences of grade 3-4 and fatal adverse events were noted on 1-year trastuzumab than in the observation group. The most common grade 3 or 4 adverse events, each in less than 1% of patients, were congestive cardiac failure, hypertension, arthralgia, back pain, central-line infection, hot flush, headache, and diarrhoea. Interpretation Treatment with adjuvant trastuzumab for 1 year after chemotherapy is associated with significant clinical benefit at 4-year median follow-up. The substantial selective crossover of patients in the observation group to trastuzumab was associated with improved outcomes for this cohort.

Asthma mortality in Australia 1920-94: Age, period, and cohort effects

Study objective-To investigate asthma mortality during 1920-94 in Australia in order to assess the relative role of period and birth cohort effects. Design-Asthma mortality (both sexes) was age standardised and examined for changes over time. The data were also examined for age, period, and cohort (APC) effects using Poisson regression modelling. Setting-National Australian mortality data. Participants-Population (both sexes) aged 15-34 years, 1920-94. Main results-Age adjusted period rates indicate an increase in asthma mortality during the 1950s, and increases and subsequent falls (epidemics) during the mid 1960s and late 1980s. APC modelling suggested an increasing cohort effect (adjusted for both age and period) from the birth cohort 1950-54 onwards. Period effects (adjusted for age and cohort) are characterised by an increase in the 1950s (possibly due to changes in diagnostic labelling), minimal or no increases in the mid 1960s and late 1980s (where period peaks had been noted when data were adjusted for age only), and declines in mortality risk subsequent to the periods where age-period analysis had noted increases. Thus, in Australia, some of the mid 1960s epidemic in asthma deaths, and all of the late 1980s mortality increase, seem to be attributable to cohort effects. Conclusions-The increase in asthma mortality cohort effect is consistent with empirical evidence of recent increases in prevalence (and presumably incidence) of asthma in Australia, and suggests the need for more research into the underlying environmental aetiology of this condition.

XPC polymorphisms play a role in tissue-specific carcinogenesis: a meta-analysis

XPC participates in the initial recognition of DNA damage during the DNA nucleotide excision repair process in global genomic repair. Polymorphisms in XPC gene have been analyzed in case-control studies to assess the cancer risk attributed to these variants, but results are conflicting. To clarify the impact of XPC polymorphisms in cancer risk, we performed a meta-analysis that included 33 published case-control studies. Polymorphisms analyzed were Lys939Gln and Ala499Val. The overall summary odds ratio (OR) for the associations of the 939Gln/Gln genotype with risk of cancer was 1.01 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.94-1.09), but there were statistically significant associations for lung cancer, observed for the recessive genetic model (Lys/Lys + Lys/Gln vs Gln/Gln), (OR 1.30; 95% CI: 1.113-1.53), whereas for breast cancer a reduced but nonsignificant risk was observed for the same model (OR 0.87; 95% CI: 0.74-1.01). The results for Ala499Val showed a significant overall increase in cancer risk (OR 1.15; 95% CI: 1.02-1.31), and for bladder cancer in both the simple genetic model (Ala/Ala vs Val/Val) (OR 1.30; 95% CI: 1.04-1.61) and the recessive genetic model (Ala/Ala + Ala/Val vs Val/Val) (OR 1.32; 95% CI: 1.06-1.63). Our meta-analysis supports that polymorphisms in XPC may represent low-penetrance susceptibility gene variants for breast, bladder, head and neck, and lung cancer. XPC is a good candidate for large-scale epidemiological case-control studies that may lead to improvement in the management of highly prevalent cancers.

Screening Anal Dysplasia in HIV-Infected Patients: Is There an Agreement Between Anal Pap Smear and High-Resolution Anoscopy-Guided Biopsy?

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to analyze the agreement between anal Pap smear and high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsy in diagnosing anal dysplasia in HIV-infected patients. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional analysis of HIV-infected patients receiving anal dysplasia screening as part of routine care. Agreement between measures was estimated by weighted kappa statistics, using a three-tiered cytologic and histologic grading system (normal, low-grade dysplasia, and high-grade dysplasia). Estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were calculated using a two-tiered cytologic and histologic grading system (""without dysplasia"" and ""with dysplasia of any grade""). Estimates were also calculated for the detection of high-grade dysplasia. RESULTS: During a one-year period, 222 patients underwent 330 anal Pap smears followed by high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsies. There were 311 satisfactory Pap smears with concurrent biopsies. Considering histology the standard, the frequency of anal dysplasia was 46%. Kappa agreement between anal Pap smear and biopsy was 0.20. For detection of anal dysplasia of any grade, anal Pap smear showed sensitivity of 61%, specificity of 60%, positive predictive value of 56%, and negative predictive value of 64%. For high-grade dysplasia, anal Pap smear showed sensitivity of 16% and specificity of 97%. CONCLUSION: Anal Pap smears alone were not sensitive enough to rule out anal dysplasia. We recommend that high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsy be incorporated as a complementary screening test for anal dysplasia in high-risk patients. Following baseline high-resolution anoscopy, these individuals could be followed with serial anal cytology to dictate the need for future high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsies.

Sexual behavior and knowledge of sexually transmitted infections among university students in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objective: To investigate the sexual behavior and knowledge about sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among undergraduate students in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Self-reported questionnaires were used. Results: Most of the 447 students in the study were single (97.3%), in their first year of university (87.7%), and the mean ages were 20.4 years (males) and 19.8 years (females). Vaginal intercourse was practiced by 69.7% of males and 48.4% of females, oral sex by 64.5% of males and 43.7% of females, and anal sex by 18.4% of males and 14.1% of females. Use of a condom during vaginal sex was practiced by 80.4% of males and 74.8% of females and during anal sex by 47.8% of males and 30.0% of females. Knowledge of transmission of STIs was greater than 90% for HIV, syphilis, genital herpes, and gonorrhea; 63%-76% for HPV and genital warts; 30%-34% for Trichomonas and only 16% for Chlamydia. Only 25%-34% knew that HIV was transmitted by breastfeeding; 56%-60% knew that HIV was transmitted by anal sex. Conclusion: Many students engage in high-risk sexual behavior with multiple partners and use condoms inconsistently. Knowledge of the acquisition and modes of sexual and vertical transmission of HIV are strikingly deficient. (C) 2010 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Latin America: A case-crossover study in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Santiago, Chile and Mexico City, Mexico

Background Factors affecting vulnerability to heat-related mortality are not well understood. Identifying susceptible populations is of particular importance given anticipated rising temperatures from climatic change. Methods We investigated heat-related mortality for three Latin American cities (Mexico City, Mexico; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Santiago, Chile) using a case-crossover approach for 754 291 deaths from 1998 to 2002. We considered lagged exposures, confounding by air pollution, cause of death and susceptibilities by educational attainment, age and sex. Results Same and previous day apparent temperature were most strongly associated with mortality risk. Effect estimates remained positive though lowered after adjustment for ozone or PM(10). Susceptibility increased with age in all cities. The increase in mortality risk for those >= 65 comparing the 95th and 75th percentiles of same-day apparent temperature was 2.69% (95% CI: -2.06 to 7.88%) for Santiago, 6.51% (95% CI: 3.57-9.52%) for Sao Paulo and 3.22% (95% CI: 0.93-5.57%) for Mexico City. Patterns of vulnerability by education and sex differed across communities. Effect estimates were higher for women than men in Mexico City, and higher for men elsewhere, although results by sex were not appreciably different for any city. In Sao Paulo, those with less education were more susceptible, whereas no distinct patterns by education were observed in the other cities. Conclusions Elevated temperatures are associated with mortality risk in these Latin American cities, with the strongest associations in So Paulo, the hottest city. The elderly are an important population for targeted prevention measures, but vulnerability by sex and education differed by city.

Neither Molecular Diversity of the Envelope, Immunosuppression Status, Nor Proviral Load Causes Indeterminate HTLV Western Blot Profiles in Samples From Human T-Cell Lymphotropic Virus Type 2 (HTLV-2)-Infected Individuals

Although human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 2 (HTLV-2) is considered of low pathogenicity, serological diagnosis is important for counseling and monitoring. The confirmatory tests most used are Western blot (WB) and PCR. However, in high-risk populations, about 50% of the indeterminate WB were HTLV-2 positives by PCR. The insensitivity of the WB might be due to the use of recombinant proteins of strains that do not circulate in our country. Another possibility may be a high level of immunosuppression, which could lead to low production of virus, resulting in low stimulation of antibody. We found one mutation, proline to serine in the envelope region in the position 184, presented at least 1/3 of the samples, independent the indeterminate WB profile. In conclusion, we found no correlation of immune state, HTLV-2 proviral load, or env diversity in the K55 region and WB indeterminate results. We believe that the only WB kit available in the market is probably more accurate to detect HTLV-1 antibodies, and some improvement for HTLV-2 detection should be done in the future, especially among high-risk population. J. Med. Virol. 82:837-842,2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Risk Score to Predict the Outcome of Patients with Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis

Background: Around 15% of patients die or become dependent after cerebral vein and dural sinus thrombosis (CVT). Method: We used the International Study on Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis (ISCVT) sample (624 patients, with a median follow-up time of 478 days) to develop a Cox proportional hazards regression model to predict outcome, dichotomised by a modified Rankin Scale score > 2. From the model hazard ratios, a risk score was derived and a cut-off point selected. The model and the score were tested in 2 validation samples: (1) the prospective Cerebral Venous Thrombosis Portuguese Collaborative Study Group (VENO-PORT) sample with 91 patients; (2) a sample of 169 consecutive CVT patients admitted to 5 ISCVT centres after the end of the ISCVT recruitment period. Sensitivity, specificity, c statistics and overall efficiency to predict outcome at 6 months were calculated. Results: The model (hazard ratios: malignancy 4.53; coma 4.19; thrombosis of the deep venous system 3.03; mental status disturbance 2.18; male gender 1.60; intracranial haemorrhage 1.42) had overall efficiencies of 85.1, 84.4 and 90.0%, in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Using the risk score (range from 0 to 9) with a cut-off of 6 3 points, overall efficiency was 85.4, 84.4 and 90.1% in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity in the combined samples were 96.1 and 13.6%, respectively. Conclusions: The CVT risk score has a good estimated overall rate of correct classifications in both validation samples, but its specificity is low. It can be used to avoid unnecessary or dangerous interventions in low-risk patients, and may help to identify high-risk CVT patients. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel