The hierarchical model of branch planning with random coefficients

We consider the management branch model where the random resources of the subsystem are given by the exponential distributions. The determinate equivalent is a block structure problem of quadratic programming. It is solved effectively by means of the decomposition method, which is based on iterative aggregation. The aggregation problem of the upper level is resolved analytically. This overcomes all difficulties concerning the large dimension of the main problem.

Implementação de um sistema Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment em uma grande rede de fast food por meio de um prestador de serviços logísticos

A gestão colaborativa é, atualmente, um elemento-chave no contexto da gestão da cadeia de suprimentos. Neste artigo, o tema é abordado mediante a análise de um caso real, em que uma grande rede mundial de fast-food e seu prestador de serviço logístico (PSL) trabalharam conjuntamente no Brasil em um projeto-piloto para a implementação de um collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR). O trabalho faz uso de uma metodologia de pesquisa-ação e apresenta as principais variáveis que influenciaram o projeto, abordando os processos necessários para a implementação e os pontos que favorecem o CPFR. Com base no caso estudado, o trabalho apresenta um conjunto de propostas sobre o papel dos agentes da cadeia em projetos dessa natureza. A gestão da cadeia de suprimentos por intermédio da coordenação direta de um PSL também permite demonstrar as possibilidades e dificuldades desse sistema, contribuindo com a visão colaborativa na cadeia de suprimentos a partir da relação entre seus agentes.

Weather-based prediction of anthracnose severity using artificial neural network models

Data were collected and analysed from seven field sites in Australia, Brazil and Colombia on weather conditions and the severity of anthracnose disease of the tropical pasture legume Stylosanthes scabra caused by Colletotrichum gloeosporioides. Disease severity and weather data were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN) models developed using data from some or all field sites in Australia and/or South America to predict severity at other sites. Three series of models were developed using different weather summaries. of these, ANN models with weather for the day of disease assessment and the previous 24 h period had the highest prediction success, and models trained on data from all sites within one continent correctly predicted disease severity in the other continent on more than 75% of days; the overall prediction error was 21.9% for the Australian and 22.1% for the South American model. of the six cross-continent ANN models trained on pooled data for five sites from two continents to predict severity for the remaining sixth site, the model developed without data from Planaltina in Brazil was the most accurate, with >85% prediction success, and the model without Carimagua in Colombia was the least accurate, with only 54% success. In common with multiple regression models, moisture-related variables such as rain, leaf surface wetness and variables that influence moisture availability such as radiation and wind on the day of disease severity assessment or the day before assessment were the most important weather variables in all ANN models. A set of weights from the ANN models was used to calculate the overall risk of anthracnose for the various sites. Sites with high and low anthracnose risk are present in both continents, and weather conditions at centres of diversity in Brazil and Colombia do not appear to be more conducive than conditions in Australia to serious anthracnose development.

A heuristic method for reactive power planning

An approach for solving reactive power planning problems is presented, which is based on binary search techniques and the use of a special heuristic to obtain a discrete solution. Two versions were developed, one to run on conventional (sequential) computers and the other to run on a distributed memory (hypercube) machine. This latter parallel processing version employs an asynchronous programming model. Once the set of candidate buses has been defined, the program gives the location and size of the reactive sources needed(if any) in keeping with operating and security constraints.

Diagnosis and environmental planning for Paranagud - PR - Brazil

The main goal of this study was to identify and analyse environmental problems related to human occupation at the south part of the city of Paranagua PR, Brazil, aiming the diagnosis and conceptual evaluation of landscape use. For landscape use assessments and degradation diagnosis purposes, the environment was classified considering mainly geological and geomorphologic characteristics, such as declivity and sediment origin. The identification of potential environmental impacts was made by aerial photographs, Landsat-TM images, photographic records, surface sediment samples, water-column samples, and mainly observation visits to each classified unit. Surface sediment samples were taken with a Petit-Ponar sampler, in 13 station located in Paranagua Bay. In order to characterize the contamination level on sediments, the concentration of the following elements were analysed: arsenic (As), copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni), lead (Ph) e zinc (Zn). For the extraction of these elements, samples were treated with HCl 0.1N for 12 hours. This method has the advantage of determining contaminants which are weakly bind to the sediment, thus more available to the system. Analysis were performed by atomic absorption spectroscopy. According to the adopted criteria, sectors were classified as hills, mangroves, continental sediments and beach ridges urban and port industrial. Water quality and concentrations of metallic elements were determined at three sectors one control and two with the influence of urban and port/industrial activities, respectively the major upland impacts found were: deforestation due to disordered occupation, and solid waste emission through domestic and industrial sewage. The diagnosis of the actual situation was used as a basis for a management plan, once it allows the identification of impacts, and consequent environmental irregularities. Based on this considerations, suggestions for land use and management were presented, which offers a better approach for recuperation and protection of the studied ecosystem.

Aggregation-based decomposition for multi-divisional models

The aggregation theory of mathematical programming is used to study decentralization in convex programming models. A two-level organization is considered and a aggregation-disaggregation scheme is applied to such a divisionally organized enterprise. In contrast to the known aggregation techniques, where the decision variables/production planes are aggregated, it is proposed to aggregate resources allocated by the central planning department among the divisions. This approach results in a decomposition procedure, in which the central unit has no optimization problem to solve and should only average local information provided by the divisions.

Is your vision consistent? A method for checking, based on scenario concepts

Common sense tells us that the future is an essential element in any strategy. In addition, there is a good deal of literature on scenario planning, which is an important tool in considering the future in terms of strategy. However, in many organizations there is serious resistance to the development of scenarios, and they are not broadly implemented by companies. But even organizations that do not rely heavily on the development of scenarios do, in fact, construct visions to guide their strategies. But it might be asked, what happens when this vision is not consistent with the future? To address this problem, the present article proposes a method for checking the content and consistency of an organization's vision of the future, no matter how it was conceived. The proposed method is grounded on theoretical concepts from the field of future studies, which are described in this article. This study was motivated by the search for developing new ways of improving and using scenario techniques as a method for making strategic decisions. The method was then tested on a company in the field of information technology in order to check its operational feasibility. The test showed that the proposed method is, in fact, operationally feasible and was capable of analyzing the vision of the company being studied, indicating both its shortcomings and points of inconsistency. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ENERGY GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING MODEL CONSIDERING EMISSIONS CONSTRAINTS

The generation expansion planning (GEP) problem consists in determining the type of technology, size, location and time at which new generation units must be integrated to the system, over a given planning horizon, to satisfy the forecasted energy demand. Over the past few years, due to an increasing awareness of environmental issues, different approaches to solve the GEP problem have included some sort of environmental policy, typically based on emission constraints. This paper presents a linear model in a dynamic version to solve the GEP problem. The main difference between the proposed model and most of the works presented in the specialized literature is the way the environmental policy is envisaged. Such policy includes: i) the taxation of CO(2) emissions, ii) an annual Emissions Reduction Rate (ERR) in the overall system, and iii) the gradual retirement of old inefficient generation plants. The proposed model is applied in an 11-region to design the most cost-effective and sustainable 10-technology US energy portfolio for the next 20 years.

An implementation of modified scatter search algorithm to transmission expansion planning

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The first case study of a thunderstorm in South Africa based on dual- Doppler radar observations

On 27 March 1991, an isolated thunderstorm passed between the two CSIR Doppler radars, spaced about 45km apart. Both radars simultaneously recorded Doppler data of the storm, and a detailed case study during an 11-min period is presented. Air motions synthesized from these data provide the first three-dimensional display of Doppler-derived wind fields within a multicell storm on the Transvaal Highveld. Regions of high divergence values (10 -2s -1) at low levels were found mostly in close proximity to reflectivity maxima (45-51 dBZ), which is consistent with findings from North America, that gravitational loading by the precipitation plays a key role in the initiation and maintenance of downdraughts. -from Authors

Planning accelerated life tests under Exponentiated-Weibull-Arrhenius model

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to present designs for an accelerated life test (ALT). Design/methodology/approach - Bayesian methods and simulation Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) methods were used. Findings - In the paper a Bayesian method based on MCMC for ALT under EW distribution (for life time) and Arrhenius models (relating the stress variable and parameters) was proposed. The paper can conclude that it is a reasonable alternative to the classical statistical methods since the implementation of the proposed method is simple, not requiring advanced computational understanding and inferences on the parameters can be made easily. By the predictive density of a future observation, a procedure was developed to plan ALT and also to verify if the conformance fraction of the manufactured process reaches some desired level of quality. This procedure is useful for statistical process control in many industrial applications. Research limitations/implications - The results may be applied in a semiconductor manufacturer. Originality/value - The Exponentiated-Weibull-Arrhenius model has never before been used to plan an ALT. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Planning nursing teaching: Educational purposes and clinical competence

Thinking about nursing education implies articulating this issue with the expressions of theoretical frameworks, from the perspective of a pedagogical aspect that includes both constructivism and competencies. The objective was to characterize, from a longitudinal view, the construction of care competencies that exist in the teaching plans of nursing undergraduate programs. This exploratory-descriptive study used a qualitative approach. Documentary analysis was performed on the nine teaching plans of undergraduate care subjects. The ethical-legal aspects were guaranteed, so that data was collected only after the study had been approved by the Research Ethics Committee. The data evidenced a curriculum organization centered on subjects, maintaining internal rationales that seem to resist summative organizations. Signs emerge of hardly substantial links between any previous knowledge and the strengthening of critical judgment and clinical reasoning. As proposed, the study contributed with reconsiderations for the teachinglearning process and showed the influence of constructivism on the proposal of clinical competencies.

Integrated planning of electric power distribution networks

In this work, a heuristic model for integrated planning of primary distribution network and secondary distribution circuits is proposed. A Tabu Search (TS) algorithm is employed to solve the planning of primary distribution networks. Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) are used to solve the planning model of secondary networks. The planning integration of both networks is carried out by means a constructive heuristic taking into account a set of integration alternatives between these networks. These integration alternatives are treated in a hierarchical way. The planning of primary networks and secondary distribution circuits is carried out based on assessment of the effects of the alternative solutions in the expansion costs of both networks simultaneously. In order to evaluate this methodology, tests were performed for a real-life distribution system taking into account the primary and secondary networks.

Specialized genetic algorithm for transmission network expansion planning considering reliability

This paper presents a methodology to solve the transmission network expansion planning problem (TNEP) considering reliability and uncertainty in the demand. The proposed methodology provides an optimal expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately with an acceptable level of reliability and in an enviroment with uncertainness. The reliability criterion limits the expected value of the reliability index (LOLE - Loss Of Load Expectation) of the expanded system. The reliability is evaluated for the transmission system using an analytical technique based in enumeration. The mathematical model is solved, in a efficient way, using a specialized genetic algorithm of Chu-Beasley modified. Detailed results from an illustrative example are presented and discussed. © 2009 IEEE.

Multi-area decentralized optimal VAr planning using the Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition principle

This paper presents a new methodology for solving the optimal VAr planning problem in multi-area electric power systems, using the Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition. The original multi-area problem is decomposed into subproblems (one for each area) and a master problem (coordinator). The solution of the VAr planning problem in each area is based on the application of successive linear programming, and the coordination scheme is based on the reactive power marginal costs in the border bus. The aim of the model is to provide coordinated mechanisms to carry out the VAr planning studies maximizing autonomy and confidentiality for each area, assuring global economy to the whole system. Using the mathematical model and computational implementation of the proposed methodology, numerical results are presented for two interconnected systems, each of them composed of three equal subsystems formed by IEEE30 and IEEE118 test systems. © 2011 IEEE.