Strategie di sviluppo sostenibile: studio e applicazione della metodologia di analisi degli scenari in campo agro-ambientale

L’obiettivo del lavoro svolto nell’ambito del ciclo di dottorato è stato quello dell’applicazione della metodologia di analisi degli scenari, nell’ottica dello studio e applicazione di un metodo di analisi integrato e multidisciplinare che consenta individuare strategie di sviluppo sostenibile in relazione alla questione indagata. Lo studio sviluppato nel corso del dottorato è stato impostato su presupposti forniti dalla Regione Toscana (in entrambi i casi di studio trattati), che ha finanziato, attraverso la sua Agenzia Regionale per lo Sviluppo e Innovazione in ambito Agricolo (ARSIA), due Progetti di ricerca volti all’individuazione di strategie di sviluppo sostenibile concernenti due tematiche di particolare interesse in ambito regionale: lo sviluppo di coltivazioni non-food (biocarburanti, biomasse da energia, biopolimeri, biolubrificanti, fibre vegetali, coloranti naturali, fitofarmaci di origine vegetale) e la valutazione della possibilità di coesistenza tra colture convenzionali (non Geneticamente Modificate) e colture GM, in relazione alla Raccomandazione della Commissione 2003/556/CE che afferma che deve essere garantita la coesistenza tra colture transgeniche, convenzionali e biologiche, ovvero che devono essere presenti le condizioni per cui ciascun metodo di coltivazione possa poter essere adottato e praticato in UE. La sostenibilità delle situazioni studiate è stata valutata fornendo informazioni non solo per la situazioni attuali, ma anche per possibili evoluzioni future, così come richiesto dai principi dello sviluppo sostenibile. A tal proposito, occorre applicare metodologie di analisi che consentano di poter identificare obiettivi strategici in funzione dei cambiamenti che potrebbero essere registrati, in corrispondenza dell’evolversi delle diverse situazioni nel tempo. La metodologia di analisi in grado di soddisfare questi requisiti può essere identificata nell’analisi di scenario (scenario analysis), che si configura come uno strumento di analisi strategica in grado di riassumere numerose informazioni e dati riferiti agli attori, agli obiettivi, agli strumenti, alle cause ed agli effetti indotti da un cambiamento che potrebbe essere provocato da uno o più fattori contemplati nel corso dell’analisi. Questo metodo di analisi rappresenta un’importante strumento di ausilio alla definizione di politiche e strategie, che si rende particolarmente utile nel campo della public choice, come dimostrato dalle applicazioni presentate nel corso del lavoro.

Metamorfismo ercinico di bassa-pressione: evoluzione tettonico-metamorfica del complesso di mandatoriccio (massiccio della Sila - Calabria)

Low-pressure/high-temperature (LP/HT) metamorphic belts are characterised by rocks that experienced abnormal heat flow in shallow crustal levels (T > 600 °C; P < 4 kbar) resulting in anomalous geothermal gradients (60-150 °C/km). The abnormal amount of heat has been related to crustal underplating of mantle-derived basic magmas or to thermal perturbation linked to intrusion of large volumes of granitoids in the intermediate crust. In particular, in this latter context, magmatic or aqueous fluids are able to transport relevant amounts of heat by advection, thus favouring regional LP/HT metamorphism. However, the thermal perturbation consequent to heat released by cooling magmas is responsible also for contact metamorphic effects. A first problem is that time and space relationships between regional LP/HT metamorphism and contact metamorphism are usually unclear. A second problem is related to the high temperature conditions reached at different crustal levels. These, in some cases, can completely erase the previous metamorphic history. Notwithstanding this problem is very marked in lower crustal levels, petrologic and geochronologic studies usually concentrate in these attractive portions of the crust. However, only in the intermediate/upper-crustal levels of a LP/HT metamorphic belt the tectono-metamorphic events preceding the temperature peak, usually not preserved in the lower crustal portions, can be readily unravelled. The Hercynian Orogen of Western Europe is a well-documented example of a continental collision zone with widespread LP/HT metamorphism, intense crustal anatexis and granite magmatism. Owing to the exposure of a nearly continuous cross-section of the Hercynian continental crust, the Sila massif (northern Calabria) represents a favourable area to understand large-scale relationships between granitoids and LP/HT metamorphic rocks, and to discriminate regional LP/HT metamorphic events from contact metamorphic effects. Granulite-facies rocks of the lower crust and greenschist- to amphibolite-facies rocks of the intermediate-upper crust are separated by granitoids emplaced into the intermediate level during the late stages of the Hercynian orogeny. Up to now, advanced petrologic studies have been focused mostly in understanding P-T evolution of deeper crustal levels and magmatic bodies, whereas the metamorphic history of the shallower crustal levels is poorly constrained. The Hercynian upper crust exposed in Sila has been subdivided in two different metamorphic complexes by previous authors: the low- to very low-grade Bocchigliero complex and the greenschist- to amphibolite-facies Mandatoriccio complex. The latter contains favourable mineral assemblages in order to unravel the tectono-metamorphic evolution of the Hercynian upper crust. The Mandatoriccio complex consists mainly of metapelites, meta-arenites, acid metavolcanites and metabasites with rare intercalations of marbles and orthogneisses. Siliciclastic metasediments show a static porphyroblastic growth mainly of biotite, garnet, andalusite, staurolite and muscovite, whereas cordierite and fibrolite are less common. U-Pb ages and internal features of zircons suggest that the protoliths of the Mandatoriccio complex formed in a sedimentary basin filled by Cambrian to Silurian magmatic products as well as by siliciclastic sediments derived from older igneous and metamorphic rocks. In some localities, metamorphic rocks are injected by numerous aplite/pegmatite veins. Small granite bodies are also present and are always associated to spotted schists with large porphyroblasts. They occur along a NW-SE trending transcurrent cataclastic fault zone, which represents the tectonic contact between the Bocchigliero and the Mandatoriccio complexes. This cataclastic fault zone shows evidence of activity at least from middle-Miocene to Recent, indicating that brittle deformation post-dated the Hercynian orogeny. P-T pseudosections show that micaschists and paragneisses of the Mandatoriccio complex followed a clockwise P-T path characterised by four main prograde phases: thickening, peak-pressure condition, decompression and peak-temperature condition. During the thickening phase, garnet blastesis started up with spessartine-rich syntectonic core developed within micaschists and paragneisses. Coevally (340 ± 9.6 Ma), mafic sills and dykes injected the upper crustal volcaniclastic sedimentary sequence of the Mandatoriccio complex. After reaching the peak-pressure condition (≈4 kbar), the upper crust experienced a period of deformation quiescence marked by the static overgrowths of S2 by Almandine-rich-garnet rims and by porphyroblasts of biotite and staurolite. Probably, this metamorphic phase is related to isotherms relaxation after the thickening episode recorder by the Rb/Sr isotopic system (326 ± 6 Ma isochron age). The post-collisional period was mainly characterised by decompression with increasing temperature. This stage is documented by the andalusite+biotite coronas overgrown on staurolite porphyroblasts and represents a critical point of the metamorphic history, since metamorphic rocks begin to record a significant thermal perturbation. Peak-temperature conditions (≈620 °C) were reached at the end of this stage. They are well constrained by some reaction textures and mineral assemblages observed almost exclusively within paragneisses. The later appearance of fibrolitic sillimanite documents a small excursion of the P-T path across the And-Sil boundary due to the heating. Stephanian U-Pb ages of monazite crystals from the paragneiss, can be related to this heating phase. Similar monazite U-Pb ages from the micaschist combined with the lack of fibrolitic sillimanite suggest that, during the same thermal perturbation, micaschists recorded temperatures slightly lower than those reached by paragneisses. The metamorphic history ended with the crystallisation of cordierite mainly at the expense of andalusite. Consequently, the Ms+Bt+St+And+Sill+Crd mineral assemblage observed in the paragneisses is the result of a polyphasic evolution and is characterised by the metastable persistence of the staurolite in the stability fields of the cordierite. Geologic, geochronologic and petrographic data suggest that the thermal peak recorded by the intermediate/upper crust could be strictly connected with the emplacement of large amounts of granitoid magmas in the middle crust. Probably, the lithospheric extension in the relatively heated crust favoured ascent and emplacement of granitoids and further exhumation of metamorphic rocks. After a comparison among the tectono-metamorphic evolutions of the different Hercynian crustal levels exposed in Sila, it is concluded that the intermediate/upper crustal level offers the possibility to reconstruct a more detailed tectono-metamorphic history. The P-T paths proposed for the lower crustal levels probably underestimate the amount of the decompression. Apart from these considerations, the comparative analysis indicates that P-T paths at various crustal levels in the Sila cross section are well compatible with a unique geologic scenario, characterized by post-collisional extensional tectonics and magmas ascent.

Difesa idraulica delle aree di pianura dalle piene al limite della prevedibilità: asta medio inferiore del Fiume Po

La Tesi si occupa dello studio della gestione delle piene al limite della prevedibilità nel tratto medio inferiore del Fiume Po attraverso una laminazione controllata in Fascia C, in linea con le linee strategiche dell'AdB-Po. A tal fine è stato realizzato un modello numerico idraulico quasi-bidimensionale del tratto studiato del Fiume con il software HEC-RAS, comprendente le Fasce A, B e C, calibrato per un tempo di ritorno di 500 anni. Sono state condotte delle simulazioni sotto l'ipotesi di argini erodibili con conseguente formazione di brecce nei punti soggetti a tracimazione (situazione attuale), e sotto l'ipotesi di argini inerodibili (teorico intervento di rivestimento e consolidamento dei tratti arginali interessati da sormonto); attraverso il confronto dei risultati si è dimostrata l'utilità della laminazione controllata in Fascia C e l'auspicabilità di nuovi studi volti all'individuazione di aree poco sensibili in cui convogliare i volumi idrici esondati.