Comparing and validating hypothesis test procedures: Graphical and numerical tools

When the behaviour of a specific hypothesis test statistic is studied by aMonte Carlo experiment, the usual way to describe its quality is by givingthe empirical level of the test. As an alternative to this procedure, we usethe empirical distribution of the obtained \emph{p-}values and exploit itsinformation both graphically and numerically.

IRELAND AND LATIN AMERICA: A CULTURAL HISTORY

According to Declan Kiberd, “postcolonial writing does not begin only when the occupier withdraws: rather it is initiated at that very moment when a native writer formulates a text committed to cultural resistance.” The Irish in Latin America – a continent emerging from indigenous cultures, colonisation, and migrations – may be regarded as colonised in Ireland and as colonisers in their new home. They are a counterexample to the standard pattern of identities in the major English-speaking destinations of the Irish Diaspora. Using literary sources, the press, correspondence, music, sports, and other cultural representations, in this thesis I search the attitudes and shared values signifying identities among the immigrants and their families. Their fragmentary and wide-ranging cultures provide a rich context to study the protean process of adaptation to, or rejection of, the new countries. Evolving from oppressed to oppressors, the Irish in Latin America swiftly became ingleses. Subsequently, in order to join the local middle classes they became vaqueros, llaneros, huasos, and gauchos so they could show signs of their effective integration to the native culture, as seen by the Latin American elites. Eventually, some Irish groups separated from the English mainstream culture and shaped their own community negotiating among Irishness, Englishness, and local identities in Brazil, Uruguay, Peru, Cuba, and other places in the region. These identities were not only unmoored in the emigrants’ minds but also manoeuvred by the political needs of community and religious leaders. After reviewing the major steps and patterns of Irish migration to Latin America, the thesis analyses texts from selected works, offers a version of how the settlers became Latin Americans or not, and elucidates the processes by which a new Irish-Latin American hybrid was created.

Stable isotope and trace element stratigraphy across the Permian-Triassic transition: A redefinition of the boundary in the Velebit Mountain, Croatia

Stable isotopes of carbonates (delta(13)C(carb), delta(18)O(carb)), organic matter (delta(13)C(org), delta(15)N(org)) and major, trace and rare earth element (REE) compositions of marine carbonate rocks of Late Permian to Early Triassic age were used to establish the position of the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) at two continuous sections in the Velebit Mountain, Croatia. The chosen sections - Rizvanusa and Brezimenjaca - are composed of two lithostratigraphic units, the Upper Permian Transitional Dolomite and the overlying Sandy Dolomite. The contact between these units, characterized by the erosional features and sudden occurrence of ooids and siliciclastic grains, was previously considered as the chronostratigraphic PTB. The Sandy Dolomite is characterized by high content of non-carbonate material (up to similar to 30 wt.% insoluble residue), originated from erosion of the uplifted hinterland. A relatively rich assemblage of Permian fossils (including Geinitzina, Globivalvulina, Hemigordius, bioclasts of gastropods, ostracods and brachiopods) was found for the first time in Sandy Dolomite, 5 m above the lithologic boundary in the Rizvanusa section. A rather abrupt negative delta(13)C(carb) excursion in both sections appears in rocks showing no recognizable facies change within the Sandy Dolomite, -2 parts per thousand at Rizvanusa and -1.2 parts per thousand at Brezimenjaca, 11 m and 0.2 m above the lithologic contact, respectively. This level within the lower part of the Sandy Dolomite is proposed as the chemostratigraphic PTB. In the Rizvanusa section, the delta(13)C(org) values decline gradually from similar to-25 parts per thousand in the Upper Permian to similar to-29 parts per thousand in the Lower Triassic. The first negative delta(13)C(org) excursion occurs above the lithologic contact, within the uppermost Permian deposits, and appears to be related to the input of terrigenous material. The release of isotopically light microbial soil-biomass into the shallow-marine water may explain this sudden decrease of delta(13)C(org) values below the PTB. This would support the hypothesis that in the western Tethyan realm the land extinction, triggering a sudden drop of woody vegetation and related land erosion, preceded the marine extinction. The relatively low delta(15)N(org) values at the Permian-Triassic (P-Tr) transition level, close to approximate to 0 parts per thousand, and a secondary negative delta(13)C(org) excursion of -0.5 parts per thousand point to significant terrestrial input and primary contribution of cyanobacteria. The profiles of the concentrations of redox-sensitive elements (Ce, Mn, Fe, V), biogenic or biogenic-scavenged elements (P, Ba, Zn, V), Ce/Ce* values, and normalized trace elements, including Ba/Al, Ba/Fe, Ti/Al, Al/(Al + Fe + Mn) and Mn/Ti show clear excursions at the Transitional Dolomite-Sandy Dolomite lithologic boundary and the chemostratigraphic P-Tr boundary. The stratigraphic variations indicate a major regression phase marking the lithologic boundary, transgressive phases in the latest Permian and a gradual change into shallow/stagnant anoxic marine environment towards the P-Tr boundary level and during the earliest Triassic. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Triiodothyronine stimulation of oligodendroglial differentiation and myelination. A developmental study.

The biochemical development of rotation-mediated aggregating brain cell cultures was studied in a serum-free chemically defined medium in the presence (complete medium) or the absence of triiodothyronine (T3). The expression of 2',3'-cyclic nucleotide 3'-phosphodiesterase (CNP) and myelin basic protein (MBP), two myelin components, was temporally dissociated in brain cell aggregating cultures grown in a complete medium. CNP increased from day 8 and reached a plateau around day 25. MBP accumulated rapidly from the third until the fourth week in culture. The total protein content increased gradually until day 25. The activity of ornithine decarboxylase (ODC) used as an index of cell growth and differentiation, showed two well-defined peaks of activity. The first peak reached a maximum at day 6 and correlated with both the highest DNA content and the peak of [3H]-thymidine incorporation. The second peak of ODC activity (from day 19 to 35) coincided with the differentiation of oligodendrocytes. These results confirm that aggregating fetal rat brain cells cultured in a serum-free chemically defined medium undergo extensive differentiation. Addition of T3 to the culture medium doubled the CNP activity by day 16. In contrast, MBP was only slightly increased by day 16, reaching at 25 and 35 days 8 to 10-fold higher values than the untreated cultures. When T3 was removed between day 16 and 25, CNP decreased almost to control values and MBP failed to accumulate. Moreover, when T3 was reintroduced into the medium (between day 25 and 35), CNP activity was restored and MBP content was partially corrected. T3 treatment produced a concentration-dependent increase in ODC activity which was observed only around day 19. The first peak of ODC activity observed at culture day 6 was independent of the presence of T3. These results obtained in brain cell cultures emphasize the direct effect of T3 on myelination.

Changes over time in risk factors for cardiovascular disease and use of lipid-lowering drugs in HIV-infected individuals and impact on myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Because of the known relationship between exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy and cardiovascular disease (CVD), it has become increasingly important to intervene against risk of CVD in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients. We evaluated changes in risk factors for CVD and the use of lipid-lowering therapy in HIV-infected individuals and assessed the impact of any changes on the incidence of myocardial infarction. METHODS: The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs Study is a collaboration of 11 cohorts of HIV-infected patients that included follow-up for 33,389 HIV-infected patients from December 1999 through February 2006. RESULTS: The proportion of patients at high risk of CVD increased from 35.3% during 1999-2000 to 41.3% during 2005-2006. Of 28,985 patients, 2801 (9.7%) initiated lipid-lowering therapy; initiation of lipid-lowering therapy was more common for those with abnormal lipid values and those with traditional risk factors for CVD (male sex, older age, higher body mass index [calculated as the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters], family and personal history of CVD, and diabetes mellitus). After controlling for these, use of lipid-lowering drugs became relatively less common over time. The incidence of myocardial infarction (0.32 cases per 100 person-years [PY]; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29-0.35 cases per 100 PY) appeared to remain stable. However, after controlling for changes in risk factors for CVD, the rate decreased over time (relative rate in 2003 [compared with 1999-2000], 0.73 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.50-1.05 cases per 100 PY]; in 2004, 0.64 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.44-0.94 cases per 100 PY]; in 2005-2006, 0.36 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.24-0.56 cases per 100 PY]). Further adjustment for lipid levels attenuated the relative rates towards unity (relative rate in 2003 [compared with 1999-2000], 1.06 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.63-1.77 cases per 100 PY]; in 2004, 1.02 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.61-1.71 cases per 100 PY]; in 2005-2006, 0.63 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.36-1.09 cases per 100 PY]). CONCLUSIONS: Although the CVD risk profile among patients in the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs Study has decreased since 1999, rates have remained relatively stable, possibly as a result of a more aggressive approach towards managing the risk of CVD.

Soil fertility, organic carbon and fractions of the organic matter at different distances from eucalyptus stumps

Knowledge on variations in vertical, horizontal and temporal characteristics of the soil chemical properties under eucalyptus stumps left in the soil is of fundamental importance for the management of subsequent crops. The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of eucalyptus stumps (ES) left after cutting on the spatial variability of chemical characteristics in a dystrophic Yellow Argisol in the eastern coastal plain region of Brazil. For this purpose, ES left for 31 and 54 months were selected in two experimental areas with similar characteristics, to assess the decomposition effects of the stumps on soil chemical attributes. Soil samples were collected directly around these ES, and at distances of 30, 60, 90, 120 and 150 cm away from them, in the layers 0-10, 10-20 and 20-40 cm along the row of ES, which is in-between the rows of eucalyptus trees of a new plantation, grown at a spacing of 3 x 3 m. The soil was sampled in five replications in plots of 900 m² each and the samples analyzed for pH, available P and K (Mehlich-1), exchangeable Al, Ca and Mg, total organic carbon (TOC) and C content in humic substances (HS) and in the free light fraction. The pH values and P, K, Ca2+, Mg2+ and Al3+ contents varied between the soil layers with increasing distance from the 31 and 54-monthold stumps. The highest pH, P, K, Ca2+ and Mg2+ values and the lowest Al3+ content were found in the surface soil layer. The TOC of the various fractions of soil organic matter decreased with increasing distance from the 31 and 54-month-old ES in the 0-10 and 10-20 cm layers, indicating that the root (and stump) cycling and rhizodeposition contribute to maintain soil organic matter. The C contents of the free light fraction, of the HS and TOC fractions were higher in the topsoil layer under the ES left for 31 months due to the higher clay levels of this layer, than in those found under the 54-month-old stumps. However, highest C levels of the different fractions of soil organic matter in the topsoil layer reflect the deposition and maintenance of forest residues on the soil surface, mainly after forest harvest.

Cardiovascular and metabolic responses during isokinetic shoulder rotators strength testing in healthy subjects

Background: Although there have been many studies on isokinetic shoulder exercises in evaluation and rehabilitation programs, the cardiovascular and metabolic responses of those modes of muscle strength exercises have been poorly investigated. Objective: To analyze cardiovascular and metabolic responses during a standardized test used to study the internal (IR) and external (ER) rotators maximal isokinetic strength. Methods: Four days after an incremental exercise test on cycle ergometer, ten healthy subjects performed an isokinetic shoulder strength evaluation with cardiovascular (Heart rate, HR) and metabolic gas exchange (&Vdot;O_{2}) analysis. The IR and ER isokinetic strength, measured in seated position with 45° of shoulder abduction in scapular plane, was evaluated concentrically at 60, 120 and 240°/s and eccentrically at 60°/s, for both shoulder sides. An endurance test with 30 repetitions at 240°/s was performed at the end of each shoulder side testing. Results: There was a significant increase of mean HR with isokinetic exercise (P< 0.05). Increases of HR was 42-71% over the resting values. During endurance testing, increases of HR was 77-105% over the resting values, and corresponded to 85-86% of the maximal HR during incremental test. Increase of &Vdot;O_{2} during isokinetic exercises was from 6-11 ml/min/kg to 20-43 ml/min/kg. Conclusion: This study performed significant cardiovascular and metabolic responses to isokinetic exercise of rotators shoulder muscles. A warm-up should be performed before maximal high-intensity isokinetic shoulder testing. Our results indicated that observation and supervision are important during testing and/or training sessions, especially in subjects with risk for cardiovascular disorders.

Association between white-coat effect and blunted dipping of nocturnal blood pressure.

In this study, we assessed whether the white-coat effect (difference between office and daytime blood pressure (BP)) is associated with nondipping (absence of BP decrease at night). Data were available in 371 individuals of African descent from 74 families selected from a population-based hypertension register in the Seychelles Islands and in 295 Caucasian individuals randomly selected from a population-based study in Switzerland. We used standard multiple linear regression in the Swiss data and generalized estimating equations to account for familial correlations in the Seychelles data. The prevalence of systolic and diastolic nondipping (<10% nocturnal BP decrease) and white-coat hypertension (WCH) was respectively 51, 46, and 4% in blacks and 33, 37, and 7% in whites. When white coat effect and nocturnal dipping were taken as continuous variables (mm Hg), systolic (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) dipping were associated inversely and independently with white-coat effect (P < 0.05) in both populations. Analogously, the difference between office and daytime heart rate was inversely associated with the difference between daytime and night-time heart rate in the two populations. These results did not change after adjustment for potential confounders. The white-coat effect is associated with BP nondipping. The similar associations between office-daytime values and daytime-night-time values for both BP and heart rate suggest that the sympathetic nervous system might play a role. Our findings also further stress the interest, for clinicians, of assessing the presence of a white-coat effect as a means to further identify patients at increased cardiovascular risk and guide treatment accordingly.

Psychometric properties of the french translation of the constructive thinking inventory in a sample of adolescents and young adults

The Constructive Thinking Inventory (CTI) measures cognitive coping strategies used in everyday problem solving. The main objective of this study was to assess the factorial structure, the internal consistency, the correspondence with the American normative values, and the discriminant validity of the French translation. A community sample of 777 students aged 12 to 26 years, recruited from schools, colleges and universities, answered the 108item selfreport CTI questionnaire during a class period. A sample of 60 male adolescent offenders aged 13 to 18 years, recruited from two institutions for juvenile offenders, answered the CTI during an individual interview. Results show that the French translation of the CTI follows an identical factorial structure as the Epstein's American version in both adolescents and young adults, and that its internal consistency is satisfactory. Differences in Constructive Thinking profiles according to gender and age and between Swiss and American samples, are discussed. Juvenile offenders differed from community youths on most of the scales, speaking for a good discriminant validity of the CTI. In conclusion, the French translation of the CTI appears to preserve the original version's psychometric properties. The present study provides normative values from a community sample of Swiss adolescents and young adults.

BIO-INSPIRED COMPUTATIONAL TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO THE CLUSTERING AND VISUALIZATION OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL GEOSPATIAL DATA

The coverage and volume of geo-referenced datasets are extensive and incessantly¦growing. The systematic capture of geo-referenced information generates large volumes¦of spatio-temporal data to be analyzed. Clustering and visualization play a key¦role in the exploratory data analysis and the extraction of knowledge embedded in¦these data. However, new challenges in visualization and clustering are posed when¦dealing with the special characteristics of this data. For instance, its complex structures,¦large quantity of samples, variables involved in a temporal context, high dimensionality¦and large variability in cluster shapes.¦The central aim of my thesis is to propose new algorithms and methodologies for¦clustering and visualization, in order to assist the knowledge extraction from spatiotemporal¦geo-referenced data, thus improving making decision processes.¦I present two original algorithms, one for clustering: the Fuzzy Growing Hierarchical¦Self-Organizing Networks (FGHSON), and the second for exploratory visual data analysis:¦the Tree-structured Self-organizing Maps Component Planes. In addition, I present¦methodologies that combined with FGHSON and the Tree-structured SOM Component¦Planes allow the integration of space and time seamlessly and simultaneously in¦order to extract knowledge embedded in a temporal context.¦The originality of the FGHSON lies in its capability to reflect the underlying structure¦of a dataset in a hierarchical fuzzy way. A hierarchical fuzzy representation of¦clusters is crucial when data include complex structures with large variability of cluster¦shapes, variances, densities and number of clusters. The most important characteristics¦of the FGHSON include: (1) It does not require an a-priori setup of the number¦of clusters. (2) The algorithm executes several self-organizing processes in parallel.¦Hence, when dealing with large datasets the processes can be distributed reducing the¦computational cost. (3) Only three parameters are necessary to set up the algorithm.¦In the case of the Tree-structured SOM Component Planes, the novelty of this algorithm¦lies in its ability to create a structure that allows the visual exploratory data analysis¦of large high-dimensional datasets. This algorithm creates a hierarchical structure¦of Self-Organizing Map Component Planes, arranging similar variables' projections in¦the same branches of the tree. Hence, similarities on variables' behavior can be easily¦detected (e.g. local correlations, maximal and minimal values and outliers).¦Both FGHSON and the Tree-structured SOM Component Planes were applied in¦several agroecological problems proving to be very efficient in the exploratory analysis¦and clustering of spatio-temporal datasets.¦In this thesis I also tested three soft competitive learning algorithms. Two of them¦well-known non supervised soft competitive algorithms, namely the Self-Organizing¦Maps (SOMs) and the Growing Hierarchical Self-Organizing Maps (GHSOMs); and the¦third was our original contribution, the FGHSON. Although the algorithms presented¦here have been used in several areas, to my knowledge there is not any work applying¦and comparing the performance of those techniques when dealing with spatiotemporal¦geospatial data, as it is presented in this thesis.¦I propose original methodologies to explore spatio-temporal geo-referenced datasets¦through time. Our approach uses time windows to capture temporal similarities and¦variations by using the FGHSON clustering algorithm. The developed methodologies¦are used in two case studies. In the first, the objective was to find similar agroecozones¦through time and in the second one it was to find similar environmental patterns¦shifted in time.¦Several results presented in this thesis have led to new contributions to agroecological¦knowledge, for instance, in sugar cane, and blackberry production.¦Finally, in the framework of this thesis we developed several software tools: (1)¦a Matlab toolbox that implements the FGHSON algorithm, and (2) a program called¦BIS (Bio-inspired Identification of Similar agroecozones) an interactive graphical user¦interface tool which integrates the FGHSON algorithm with Google Earth in order to¦show zones with similar agroecological characteristics.

O-chromosome lethal frequencies in Serbian and Montenegrin Drosophila subobscura populations

Lethal chromosomal frequencies were obtained from three Drosophila subobscura samples from the Mt. Avala (Serbia) population in September 2003 (0.218), June 2004 (0.204) and September 2004 (0.250). These values and those from other Balkan populations studied previously (Petnica, Kamariste, Zanjic and Djerdap) were used to analyze the possible effect of population, year, month and altitude above sea level on lethal chromosomal frequencies. According to ANOVAS no effect were observed. Furthermore, the lethal frequencies of the Balkan populations did not vary according to latitude. This is probably due to the relative proximity and high gene flow between these populations. From a joint study of all the Palearctic D. subobscura populations so far analyzed, it can be deduced that the Balkan populations are located in the central area of the species distribution. Finally, it seems that lethal chromosomal frequencies are a consequence of the genetic structure of the populations.

Nitrous oxide and methane fluxes in south Brazilian gleysol as affected by nitrogen fertilizers

Nitrogen fertilizers increase the nitrous oxide (N2O) emission and can reduce the methane (CH4) oxidation from agricultural soils. However, the magnitude of this effect is unknown in Southern Brazilian edaphoclimatic conditions, as well as the potential of different sources of mineral N fertilizers in such an effect. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of different mineral N sources (urea, ammonium sulphate, calcium nitrate, ammonium nitrate, Uran, controlled- release N fertilizer, and urea with urease inhibitor) on N2O and CH4 fluxes from Gleysol in the South of Brazil (Porto Alegre, RS), in comparison to a control treatment without a N application. The experiment was arranged in a randomized block with three replications, and the N fertilizer was applied to corn at the V5 growth stage. Air samples were collected from a static chambers for 15 days after the N application and the N2O and CH4 concentration were determined by gas chromatography. The topmost emissions occurred three days after the N fertilizer application and ranged from 187.8 to 8587.4 µg m-2 h-1 N. The greatest emissions were observed for N-nitric based fertilizers, while N sources with a urease inhibitor and controlled release N presented the smallest values and the N-ammonium and amidic were intermediate. This peak of N2O emissions was related to soil NO3--N (R² = 0.56, p < 0.08) when the soil water-filled pore space was up to 70 % and it indicated that N2O was predominantly produced by a denitrification process in the soil. Soil CH4 fluxes ranged from -30.1 µg m-2 h-1 C (absorption) to +32.5 µg m-2 h-1 C (emission), and the accumulated emission in the period was related to the soil NH4+-N concentration (R² = 0.82, p < 0.001), probably due to enzymatic competition between nitrification and metanotrophy processes. Despite both of the gas fluxes being affected by N fertilizers, in the average of the treatments, the impact on CH4 emission (0.2 kg ha-1 equivalent CO2-C ) was a hundredfold minor than for N2O (132.8 kg ha-1 equivalent CO2-C). Accounting for the N2O and CH4 emissions plus energetic costs of N fertilizers of 1.3 kg CO2-C kg-1 N regarding the manufacture, transport and application, we estimated an environmental impact of N sources ranging from 220.4 to 664.5 kg ha-1 CO2 -C , which can only be partially offset by C sequestration in the soil, as no study in South Brazil reported an annual net soil C accumulation rate larger than 160 kg ha-1 C due to N fertilization. The N2O mitigation can be obtained by the replacement of N-nitric sources by ammonium and amidic fertilizers. Controlled release N fertilizers and urea with urease inhibitor are also potential alternatives to N2O emission mitigation to atmospheric and systematic studies are necessary to quantify their potential in Brazilian agroecosystems.

Cost effectiveness and cost utility of risedronate for osteoporosis treatment and fracture prevention in women: a Swiss perspective.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of risedronate compared to no intervention in postmenopausal osteoporotic women in a Swiss perspective. METHODS: A previously validated Markov model was populated with epidemiological and cost data specific to Switzerland and published utility values, and run on a population of 1,000 women of 70 years with established osteoporosis and previous vertebral fracture, treated over 5 years with risedronate 35 mg weekly or no intervention (base case), and five cohorts (according to age at therapy start) with eight risk factor distributions and three lengths of residual effects. RESULTS: In the base case population, the ICER of averting a hip fracture and the ICUR per quality-adjusted life year gained were both dominant. In the presence of a previous vertebral fracture, the ICUR was below euro45,000 (pound30,000) in all the scenarios. For all osteoporotic women>or=70 years of age with at least one risk factor, the ICUR was below euro45,000 or the intervention may even be cost saving. Age at the start of therapy and the fracture risk profile had a significant impact on results. CONCLUSION: Assuming a 2-year residual effect, that ICUR of risedronate in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis is below accepted thresholds from the age of 65 and even cost saving above the age of 70 with at least one risk factor.

Linear relation between deuteron matter radius and the scattering length

We explain the empirical linear relations between the triplet scattering length, or the asymptotic normalization constant, and the deuteron matter radius using the effective range expansion in a manner similar to a recent paper by Bhaduri et al. We emphasize the corrections due to the finite force range and to shape dependence. The discrepancy between the experimental values and the empirical line shows the need for a larger value of the wound extension, a parameter which we introduce here. Short-distance nonlocality of the n-p interaction is a plausible explanation for the discrepancy.

Effects of age, birth cohort and period of death on Swiss cancer mortality, 1951-1984.

Swiss death certification data over the period 1951-1984 for total cancer mortality and 30 major cancer sites in the population aged 25 to 74 years were analysed using a log-linear Poisson model with arbitrary constraints on the parameters to isolate the effects of birth cohort, calendar period of death and age. The overall pattern of total cancer mortality in males was stable for period values and showed some moderate decreases in cohort values restricted to the generations born after 1930. Cancer mortality trends were more favourable in females, with steady, though moderate, declines in both cohort and period values. According to the estimates from the model, the worst affected generation for male lung cancer was that born around 1910, and a flattening of trends or some moderate decline was observed for more recent cohorts, although this decline was considerably more limited than in other European countries. There were decreases in cohort and period values for stomach, intestine and oesophageal cancer in both sexes and (cervix) uteri in females. Increases were observed in both cohort and period trends for pancreas and liver in males and for several other neoplasms, including prostate, brain, leukaemias and lymphomas, restricted, however, for the latter sites, to the earlier cohorts and hence partly attributable to improved diagnosis and certification in the elderly. Although age values for lung cancer in females were around 10-times lower than in males, upward trends in female lung cancer cohort values were observed in subsequent cohorts and for period values from the late 1960's onwards. Therefore, future trends in female lung cancer mortality should continue to be monitored. The application of these age/period/cohort models thus provides a summary guide for the reading and interpretation of cancer mortality trends, although it cannot replace careful inspection of single age-specific rates.