Impacts of climate change and management responses in tropical forests depend on complex frugivore-mediated seed dispersal

AimBiodiversity outcomes under global change will be influenced by a range of ecological processes, and these processes are increasingly being considered in models of biodiversity change. However, the level of model complexity required to adequately account for important ecological processes often remains unclear. Here we assess how considering realistically complex frugivore-mediated seed dispersal influences the projected climate change outcomes for plant diversity in the Australian Wet Tropics (all 4313 species). LocationThe Australian Wet Tropics, Queensland, Australia. MethodsWe applied a metacommunity model (M-SET) to project biodiversity outcomes using seed dispersal models that varied in complexity, combined with alternative climate change scenarios and habitat restoration scenarios. ResultsWe found that the complexity of the dispersal model had a larger effect on projected biodiversity outcomes than did dramatically different climate change scenarios. Applying a simple dispersal model that ignored spatial, temporal and taxonomic variation due to frugivore-mediated seed dispersal underestimated the reduction in the area of occurrence of plant species under climate change and overestimated the loss of diversity in fragmented tropical forest remnants. The complexity of the dispersal model also changed the habitat restoration approach identified as the best for promoting persistence of biodiversity under climate change. Main conclusionsThe consideration of complex processes such as frugivore-mediated seed dispersal can make an important difference in how we understand and respond to the influence of climate change on biodiversity.

PICES Press, Vol. 7, No. 1, January 1999

Taking stock and looking to the future - note from former PICES Chairman The state of the western North Pacific in the first half of 1998 The status of the Bering Sea in the first eight month of 1998 The state of the eastern North Pacific since February 1998 Highlights of PICES VII, review of SB activities and future workplan The second PICES Workshop on the Okhotsk Sea and ajacent area PICES-GLOBEC Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program: A report from PICES VII Data management for the CCCC Program Report on GOOS Living Marine Resource Panel Meeting Photos from PICES VII Vjatcheslav Petrovich Shuntov GLOBEC Canada: Who we are, what we’ve been doing and where we’re headed The Ocean Carrying Capacity Research Program (OCC) at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Auke Bay Laboratory, Juneau, Alaska JAMSTEC research activities in the northern North Pacific People and events

Vertical transport and exchange of materials in the upper waters of the oceans (VERTEX): introduction to the program, hydrographic conditions and major component fluxes during VERTEX I

This paper introduces VERTEX, a multi-disciplinary research program dealing with various aspects of particle transport in the upper, high-energy layers (0-2000 m) of the ocean. Background information is presented on hydrography, biological composition of trapped particulates, and major component fluxes observed on a cruise off central California (VERTEX I). Organic C fluxes measured with two trap systems are compared with several other estimates taken from the literature. The intent of this overview paper is to provide a common setting in an economical manner, and avoid undue repetition of background and ancillary information in subsequent publications. (PDF is 43 pages).

Fecundity of the anchoveta (Cetengraulis mysticetus) in the Gulf of Panama

ENGLISH: One aspect of the work of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission is to investigate the biology, life history, and ecology of the anchoveta (Cetengraulis mysticetus) to make possible an understanding of the effects of the fishery on this species. While the catch per standard day's baiting has been used as a measure of the apparent abundance of anchovetas in the Gulf of Panama (Alverson and Shimada, 1957), it would be desirable to have an independent measure of population abundance. One such estimate can be obtained by a knowledge of the fecundity and sex ratio, together with the total annual egg production of this species. This method is one of those used routinely by the U. S. Bureau of Commercial Fisheries to estimate the size of the spawning population of the Pacific sardine, Sardinops caerulea (California Cooperative Research Program, Progress Report, 1 January 1951 to 30 June 1952). While the purpose of the present paper is to provide information about the fecundity of the anchoveta, nothing is known yet of the total annual egg production of this species although Simpson (1959) has provided much of the information (identification of the anchoveta egg, time of spawning, delimitation of the spawning area) which would be necessary as a basis for enumerating anchoveta eggs in the spawning area of the Gulf of Panama. SPANISH: Un aspecto del trabajo de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical es la investigación de la biología, historia natural y ecología de la anchoveta (Cetengraulis mysticetus) para que sea posible entender los efectos de la pesquería sobre esta especie. Aunque se ha venido usando la pesca de carnada por día estándar de actividad como una medida de la abundancia aparente de las anchovetas en el Golfo de Panamá (Alverson y Shimada, 1957), sería deseable tener una medida independiente de la abundancia de la población. Una estimación de esta naturaleza puede obtenerse por el conocimiento de la fecundidad de la razón de los sexos, junto con la producción total anual de huevos de esta especie. Este método es uno de los empleados rutinariamente por el Bureau of Commercial Fisheries de los Estados Unidos para estimar el tamaño de la población reproductora de la sardina del Pacífico, Sardinops caerulea (California Cooperative Research Program, Progress Report, 1 January 1951 to 30 June 1952). Aunque el propósito del presente trabajo es el de proveer información sobre la fecundidad de la anchoveta, nada se sabe todavía sobre la producción total anual de huevos de esta especie, a pesar de que Simpson (1959) ha proporcionado abundante información identificación del huevo de la anchoveta, tiempo del desove, delimitación de las áreas de desove) necesaria como una base para medir la producción de huevos de la anchoveta en el área de desove del Golfo de Panamá.

Short-range-order effects on intrinsic plasticity of metallic glasses

Through a systematical analysis of the elastic moduli for 137 metallic glasses (MGs) and 56 polycrystalline metals, we use a simple model developed by Knuyt et al. [J. Phys. F: Met. Phys. 16 (1986) p.1989; Phil. Mag. B 64 (1991) p.299] based on a Gaussian distribution for the first-neighbor distance to reveal the short-range-order (SRO) structural conditions for plasticity of MGs. It is found that the SRO structure with dense atomic packing, large packing dispersion and a significant anharmonicity of atomic interaction within an MG is favorable for its global plasticity. Although these conditions seem paradoxical, their perfect matching is believed to be a key for designing large plastic bulk MGs not only in compression but also in tension.

What is coastal climate?

Historical definitions of what determines whether one lives in a coastal area or not have varied over time. According to Culliton (1998), a “coastal county” is defined as a county with at least 15% of its total land area located within a nation’s coastal watershed. This emphasizes the land areas within which water flows into the ocean or Great Lakes, but may be better suited for ecosystems or water quality research (Crowell et al. 2007). Some Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) documents suggest that “coastal” includes shoreline-adjacent coastal counties, and perhaps even counties impacted by flooding from coastal storms. An accurate definition of “coastal” is critical in this regard since FEMA uses such definitions to revise and modernize their Flood Insurance Rate Maps (Crowell et al. 2007). A recent map published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Coastal Services Center for the Coastal Change Analysis Program shows that the “coastal” boundary covers the entire state of New York and Michigan, while nearly all of South Carolina is considered “coastal.” The definition of “coastal” one chooses can have major implications, including a simple count of coastal population and the influence of local or state coastal policies. There is, however, one aspect of defining what is “coastal” that has often been overlooked; using atmospheric long-term climate variables to define the inland extent of the coastal zone. This definition, which incorporates temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity, is furthermore scalable and globally applicable - even in the face of shifting shorelines. A robust definition using common climate variables should condense the large broad definition often associated with “coastal” such that completely landlocked locations would no longer be considered “coastal.” Moreover, the resulting definition, “coastal climate” or “climatology of the coast”, will help coastal resource managers make better-informed decisions on a wide range of climatologically-influenced issues. The following sections outline the methodology employed to derive some new maps of coastal boundaries in the United States. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Economics of Energy and Climate Change: Origins, Developments and Growth

27 p.

Aquatic Agricultural Systems: Annual report

The program on aquatic agricultural systems (AAS) aims to change the way the CGIAR engages with aquatic agricultural systems and the poor and vulnerable communities who depend upon them. To do so the program has focused on three primary lines of work in its first six months: (i) preparing for implementation of the program in focal countries and geographical hubs; (ii) harnessing the best of earlier and ongoing research that contributes to the science themes of the program and which we wish to see expanded and integrated into the program as it develops; (iii) establishing innovative governance and management arrangements that will guide and implement the program. This report summaries the achievements and reviews the progress of the AAS program.

Ex-ante impact evaluation: case studies from Malawi, Bangladesh and Ghana

This document presents ex-ante impact evaluations of research for development projects related to aquaculture in Bangladesh, Malawi and Ghana. The Ghana chapter also includes an ex-ante evaluation of a fisheries project. The case studies utilized preliminary versions of guidelines developed specifically for ex-ante evaluations of aquaculture and fisheries projects. The guidelines, found in A Practical Guide for Ex-Ante Impact Evaluations in Fisheries and Aquaculture, are designed to provide an approach for a qualitative examination of the potential for a project to deliver impacts. Using a conceptual framework based on the outcome focus of results-based management, the guidelines stress careful examination of the setting, internal consistency, a sound theory of change, and an examination of stakeholders’ interests and potential partnerships. The case study reports illustrate the variability with which the guidelines may be interpreted and applied. The different teams, operating with limited time and budget that constrained the collection of new data, were forced to utilize existing secondary data and information and consult with key stakeholders to complete their analyses. The varying levels of reporting reflect the differences among the cases in the amounts of existing information and variety of stakeholders potentially involved in the projects being examined.

Research in development: the approach of AAS

The CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) is pursuing a Research in Development approach that emphasizes the importance of embedding research in the development context. Reflecting this emphasis the six elements of this approach are a commitment to people and place, participatory action research, gender transformative research, learning and networking, partnerships, and capacity building. It is through the careful pursuit of these six elements that we believe that the program will achieve the development outcomes we aspire to, and do so at scale.

Solomon Islands: Malaita Hub scoping report

The CGIAR Research Program (CRP) Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) will target five countries, including Solomon Islands. The proposed hubs for Solomon Islands were to cover most provinces, referencing the Western, Central and Eastern regions. Scoping of the initial ‘Central’ hub was undertaken in Guadalcanal, Malaita and Central Islands provinces and this report details findings from all three. As scoping progressed however, it was agreed that, based on the AAS context and priority needs of each province and the Program���s capacity for full implementation, the Central Hub would be restricted to Malaita Province only and renamed “Malaita Hub”. Consistent in each AAS country, there are four steps in the program rollout: planning, scoping, diagnosis and design. Rollout of the Program in Solomon Islands began with a five month planning phase between August and December 2011, and scoping of the first hub began in January 2012. This report, the second to be produced during rollout, describes the findings from the scoping process between January and June 2012. This report marks the transition from the scoping phase to the diagnosis phase in which output from scoping was used to develop a hub level theory of change for identifying research opportunities. Subsequent reports detail in-depth analyses of gender, governance, nutrition and partner activities and discuss Program engagement with community members to identify grass-roots demand for research.

2012 Annual report

The CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems is a multi-year research initiative launched in July 2011. It is designed to pursue community-based approaches to agricultural research and development that target the poorest and most vulnerable rural households in aquatic agricultural systems. Led by WorldFish, a member of the CGIAR Consortium, the program is partnering with diverse organizations working at local, national and global levels to help achieve impacts at scale.

Solomon Islands Aquatic Agricultural Systems Program design document

WorldFish is leading the CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems together with two other CGIAR Centers; the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and Bioversity. In 2012 and 2013 the AAS Program rolled out in Solomon Islands, Zambia, Bangladesh, Cambodia and the Philippines. Aquatic Agricultural Systems are places where farming and fishing in freshwater and/or coastal ecosystems contribute significantly to household income and food security. The program goal is to improve the well-being of AAS-dependent people. A hub is a geographic location that provides a focus for learning, innovation and impact through participatory action research. In Solomon Islands AAS works in Malaita Hub (Malaita Province) and Western Hub (Western Province). In each hub we identify a ‘Development Challenge’ that the Program will address to give us focus and motivation.

Solomon Islands: Western Hub scoping report

Aquatic agricultural systems (AAS) are places where farming and fishing in freshwater and/or coastal ecosystems contribute significantly to household income and food security. Globally, the livelihoods of many poor and vulnerable people are dependent on these systems. In recognition of the importance of AAS, the CGIAR Research Program (CRP) is undertaking a new generation of global agricultural research programs on key issues affecting global food security and rural development. The overall goal of the research program is to improve the well-being of people dependent on these systems. Solomon Islands is one of five priority countries in the AAS program, led by WorldFish. In Solomon Islands, the AAS program operates in the Malaita Hub (Malaita Province) and the Western Hub (Western Province). This program and its scoping activities are summarized in this report.