Assessement of Malaria Transmission in an Area with Very Low Mosquito Density

The increase in world travel in recent years, especially to and from areas where vector-borne diseases are endemic, has resulted in a substantial rise in imported cases of those diseases. In particular, malaria is a cause of concern. In those countries at the edge of its distribution, it can be difficult to distinguish between autochthonous and imported cases. However, distinguishing between the two is important because of the different allocation of resources to combat the disease that each requires. In general, observation of the various stages of parasite development in wild-caught female mosquitoes is considered evidence of autochthonous transmission. Observation of oocysts in the mosquito mid-gut testifies that mosquitoes are susceptible to infection but conclusions cannot be reached about their ability to complete the transmission cycle. Perhaps the best indication of autochthonous transmission is microscopic observation of sporozoites in mosquito salivary glands, since this detects parasites ready to be inoculated (BELER et al., 1990). Detection of circumsporozoite protein (CSP)(BURKOT, WILLIAMS & SCHNEIDER, 1984) in dry mosquito thoraxes, by Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) is also widely used to determine transmission, especially when large numbers of mosquitoes need to be processed. Such assays provide information about the parasite species infecting the mosquito (BURKOT & WIRTZ, 1986; WIRTZ et al., 1987; BELER et al., 1990).

La transmission intergénérationnelle de l'orientation idéologique en Suisse dans les familles à plusieurs générations

Ce texte est consacré à la transmission à court terme de l'orientation idéologique gauche- droite entre parents et enfants; il utilise les données du Panel suisse de ménages (www.swisspanel.ch), qui permet de mener des analyses dans les ménages à plusieurs générations. Les résultats confirment qu'il existe bien une transmission de l'orientation idéologique gauche-droite entre parents et enfants, qui se fait différemment selon le sexe des parents et des enfants. A court terme, cette transmission se fait plus facilement dans les milieux éduqués, aisés et politisés, ce qui signifie paradoxalement que parmi les jeunes électeurs, ce sont ceux issus de milieux défavorisés ou non intéressés à la politique qui ont la probabilité la plus élevée de changer l'équilibre des forces politiques en présence.

On the cultural transmission of corruption

We provide a cultural explanation to the phenomenon of corruption in the framework of an overlapping generations model with intergenerational transmissionof values. We show that the economy has two steady states with different levels of corruption. The driving force in the equilibrium selection process is the education effort exerted by parents which depends on the distribution of ethics in the population and on expectations about future policies. We propose some policy interventions which via parents' efforts have long-lasting effects on corruption and show the success of intensive education campaigns. Educating the young is a key element in reducing corruption successfully.

Sources and propagation of international cycles: Common shocks or transmission?

This paper studies the generation and transmission of international cycles in a multi-country model with production and consumption interdependencies. Two sources of disturbance are considered and three channels of propagation are compared. In the short run the contemporaneous correlation of disturbances determines the main features of the transmission. In the medium run production interdependencies account for the transmission of technology shocks and consumption interdependencies account for the transmission of government shocks. Technology disturbances, which are mildly correlated across countries, are more successful than government expenditure disturbances in reproducing actual data. The model also accounts for the low cross country consumption correlations observed in the data.

Monetary policy shocks and transmission in Italy: A VAR analysis

This paper provides updated empirical evidence about the real and nominal effects of monetary policy in Italy, by using structural VAR analysis. We discuss different empirical approaches that have been used in order to identify monetary policy exogenous shocks. We argue that the data support the view that the Bank of Italy, at least in the recent past, has been targeting the rate on overnight interbank loans. Therefore, we interpret shocks to the overnight rate as purely exogenous monetary policy shocks and study how different macroeconomic variables react to such shocks.

The transmission of US shocks to Latin America

I study whether and how US shocks are transmitted to eight Latin American countries. US shocks are identified using sign restrictions and treated as exogenous with respect to Latin American economies. Posterior estimates for individual and average effects are constructed. US monetary shocks produce significant fluctuations in Latin America, but real demand and supply shocks do not. Floaters and currency boarders display similar output but different inflation and interest rate responses. The financial channel plays a crucial role in the transmission. US disturbances explain important portions of the variability of LatinAmerican macrovariables, producing continental cyclical fluctuations and, in two episodes, destabilizing nominal exchange rate effects. Policy implications are discussed.

Optimal information transmission in organizations: Search and congestion

We propose a stylized model of a problem-solving organization whoseinternal communication structure is given by a fixed network. Problemsarrive randomly anywhere in this network and must find their way to theirrespective specialized solvers by relying on local information alone.The organization handles multiple problems simultaneously. For this reason,the process may be subject to congestion. We provide a characterization ofthe threshold of collapse of the network and of the stock of foatingproblems (or average delay) that prevails below that threshold. We buildupon this characterization to address a design problem: the determinationof what kind of network architecture optimizes performance for any givenproblem arrival rate. We conclude that, for low arrival rates, the optimalnetwork is very polarized (i.e. star-like or centralized ), whereas it islargely homogenous (or decentralized ) for high arrival rates. We also showthat, if an auxiliary assumption holds, the transition between these twoopposite structures is sharp and they are the only ones to ever qualify asoptimal.

Comparison of human chromosome 21 conserved nongenic sequences (CNGs) with the mouse and dog genomes shows that their selective constraint is independent of their genic environment.

The analysis of conservation between the human and mouse genomes resulted in the identification of a large number of conserved nongenic sequences (CNGs). The functional significance of this nongenic conservation remains unknown, however. The availability of the sequence of a third mammalian genome, the dog, allows for a large-scale analysis of evolutionary attributes of CNGs in mammals. We have aligned 1638 previously identified CNGs and 976 conserved exons (CODs) from human chromosome 21 (Hsa21) with their orthologous sequences in mouse and dog. Attributes of selective constraint, such as sequence conservation, clustering, and direction of substitutions were compared between CNGs and CODs, showing a clear distinction between the two classes. We subsequently performed a chromosome-wide analysis of CNGs by correlating selective constraint metrics with their position on the chromosome and relative to their distance from genes. We found that CNGs appear to be randomly arranged in intergenic regions, with no bias to be closer or farther from genes. Moreover, conservation and clustering of substitutions of CNGs appear to be completely independent of their distance from genes. These results suggest that the majority of CNGs are not typical of previously described regulatory elements in terms of their location. We propose models for a global role of CNGs in genome function and regulation, through long-distance cis or trans chromosomal interactions.

Synaptic transmission with the glia.

For decades, scientists thought that all of the missing secrets of brain function resided in neurons. However, a wave of new findings indicates that glial cells, formerly considered mere supporters and subordinate to neurons, participate actively in synaptic integration and processing of information in the brain.

Is bank debt special for the transmission of monetary policy? Evidence from the stock market

We combine existing balance sheet and stock market data with two new datasets to studywhether, how much, and why bank lending to firms matters for the transmission of monetarypolicy. The first new dataset enables us to quantify the bank dependence of firms precisely,as the ratio of bank debt to total assets. We show that a two standard deviation increase inthe bank dependence of a firm makes its stock price about 25% more responsive to monetarypolicy shocks. We explore the channels through which this effect occurs, and find that thestock prices of bank-dependent firms that borrow from financially weaker banks display astronger sensitivity to monetary policy shocks. This finding is consistent with the banklending channel, a theory according to which the strength of bank balance sheets mattersfor monetary policy transmission. We construct a new database of hedging activities andshow that the stock prices of bank-dependent firms that hedge against interest rate riskdisplay a lower sensitivity to monetary policy shocks. This finding is consistent with aninterest rate pass-through channel that operates via the direct transmission of policy ratesto lending rates associated with the widespread use of floating-rates in bank loans and creditline agreements.

The role of migration and domestic transmission in the spread of HIV-1 non-B subtypes in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: By analyzing human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) pol sequences from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), we explored whether the prevalence of non-B subtypes reflects domestic transmission or migration patterns. METHODS: Swiss non-B sequences and sequences collected abroad were pooled to construct maximum likelihood trees, which were analyzed for Swiss-specific subepidemics, (subtrees including ≥80% Swiss sequences, bootstrap >70%; macroscale analysis) or evidence for domestic transmission (sequence pairs with genetic distance <1.5%, bootstrap ≥98%; microscale analysis). RESULTS: Of 8287 SHCS participants, 1732 (21%) were infected with non-B subtypes, of which A (n = 328), C (n = 272), CRF01_AE (n = 258), and CRF02_AG (n = 285) were studied further. The macroscale analysis revealed that 21% (A), 16% (C), 24% (CRF01_AE), and 28% (CRF02_AG) belonged to Swiss-specific subepidemics. The microscale analysis identified 26 possible transmission pairs: 3 (12%) including only homosexual Swiss men of white ethnicity; 3 (12%) including homosexual white men from Switzerland and partners from foreign countries; and 10 (38%) involving heterosexual white Swiss men and females of different nationality and predominantly nonwhite ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Of all non-B infections diagnosed in Switzerland, <25% could be prevented by domestic interventions. Awareness should be raised among immigrants and Swiss individuals with partners from high prevalence countries to contain the spread of non-B subtypes.

Transmission of HIV-1 drug resistance in Switzerland: a 10-year molecular epidemiology survey.

OBJECTIVES: Representative prevalence data of transmitted drug-resistant HIV-1 are essential to establish accurate guidelines addressing resistance testing and first-line treatments. METHODS: Systematic resistance testing was carried out in individuals in Switzerland with documented HIV-1 seroconversion during 1996-2005 and available samples with RNA > 1000 copies/ml obtained within 1 year of estimated seroconversion. Resistance interpretation used the Stanford list of mutations for surveillance of transmitted drug resistance and the French National Agency for AIDS Research algorithm. RESULTS: Viral sequences from 822 individuals were available. Risk groups were men having sex with men (42%), heterosexual contacts (32%) and intravenous drug users (20%); 30% were infected with non-B subtype viruses. Overall, prevalence of transmitted resistance was 7.7% [95% confidence interval (CI), 5.9-9.5] for any drug, 5.5% (95% CI, 3.9-7.1) for nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, 1.9% (95% CI, 1.0-2.8) for non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and 2.7% (95% CI, 1.6-3.8) for protease inhibitors. Dual- or triple-class resistance was observed in 2% (95% CI, 0.8-2.5). No significant trend in prevalence of transmitted resistance was observed over years. There were no differences according to ethnicity, risk groups or gender, but prevalence of transmitted resistance was highest among individuals infected with subtype B virus. CONCLUSIONS: The transmission rate of drug-resistant HIV-1 has been stable since 1996, with very rare transmission of dual- or triple-class resistance. These data suggest that transmission of drug resistance in the setting of easy access to antiretroviral treatment can remain stable and be kept at a low level.

Discovery of the faithfulness gene: a model of transmission and transformation of scientific information.

The purpose of this paper is to study the diffusion and transformation of scientific information in everyday discussions. Based on rumour models and social representations theory, the impact of interpersonal communication and pre-existing beliefs on transmission of the content of a scientific discovery was analysed. In three experiments, a communication chain was simulated to investigate how laypeople make sense of a genetic discovery first published in a scientific outlet, then reported in a mainstream newspaper and finally discussed in groups. Study 1 (N=40) demonstrated a transformation of information when the scientific discovery moved along the communication chain. During successive narratives, scientific expert terminology disappeared while scientific information associated with lay terminology persisted. Moreover, the idea of a discovery of a faithfulness gene emerged. Study 2 (N=70) revealed that transmission of the scientific message varied as a function of attitudes towards genetic explanations of behaviour (pro-genetics vs. anti-genetics). Pro-genetics employed more scientific terminology than anti-genetics. Study 3 (N=75) showed that endorsement of genetic explanations was related to descriptive accounts of the scientific information, whereas rejection of genetic explanations was related to evaluative accounts of the information.

Infrequent transmission of HIV-1 drug-resistant variants.

Transmission of drug-resistant variants is influenced by several factors, including the prevalence of drug resistance in the population of HIV-1-infected patients, HIV-1 RNA levels and transmission by recently infected patients. In order to evaluate the impact of these factors on the transmission of drug-resistant variants, we have defined the population of potential transmitters and compared their resistance profiles to those of newly infected patients. Sequencing of pol gene was performed in 220 recently infected patients and in 373 chronically infected patients with HIV-1 RNA >1000 copies/ml. Minimal and maximal drug-resistance profiles of potential transmitters were estimated by weighting resistance profiles of chronically infected patients with estimates of the Swiss HIV-1-infected population, the prevalence of exposure to antiviral drugs and the proportion of infections attributed to primary HIV infections. The drug-resistance prevalence in recently infected patients was 10.5% (one class drug resistance: 9.1%; two classes: 1.4%; three classes: 0%). Phylogenetic analysis revealed significant clustering for 30% of recent infections. The drug-resistance prevalence in chronically infected patients was 72.4% (one class: 29%; two classes: 27.6%; three classes: 15.8%). After adjustment, the risk of transmission relative to wild-type was reduced both for one class drug resistance (minimal and maximal estimates: odds ratio: 0.39, P<0.001; and odds ratio: 0.55, P=0.011, respectively), and for two to three class drug resistance (odds ratios: 0.05 and 0.07, respectively, P<0.001). Neither sexual behaviour nor HIV-1 RNA levels explained the low transmission of drug-resistant variants. These data suggest that drug-resistant variants and in particular multidrug-resistant variants have a substantially reduced transmission capacity.