The surface temperatures of Earth: steps towards integrated understanding of variability and change

Surface temperature is a key aspect of weather and climate, but the term may refer to different quantities that play interconnected roles and are observed by different means. In a community-based activity in June 2012, the EarthTemp Network brought together 55 researchers from five continents to improve the interaction between scientific communities who focus on surface temperature in particular domains, to exploit the strengths of different observing systems and to better meet the needs of different communities. The workshop identified key needs for progress towards meeting scientific and societal requirements for surface temperature understanding and information, which are presented in this community paper. A "whole-Earth" perspective is required with more integrated, collaborative approaches to observing and understanding Earth's various surface temperatures. It is necessary to build understanding of the relationships between different surface temperatures, where presently inadequate, and undertake large-scale systematic intercomparisons. Datasets need to be easier to obtain and exploit for a wide constituency of users, with the differences and complementarities communicated in readily understood terms, and realistic and consistent uncertainty information provided. Steps were also recommended to curate and make available data that are presently inaccessible, develop new observing systems and build capacities to accelerate progress in the accuracy and usability of surface temperature datasets.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

Cultural models of healing and health: An ethnography of professional nurses and healers

Cultural models of the domains healing and health are important in how people understand health and their behavior regarding it. The biomedicine model has been predominant in Western society. Recent popularity of holistic health and alternative healing modalities contrasts with the biomedical model and the assumptions upon which that model has been practiced. The holistic health movement characterizes an effort by health care providers and others such as nurses to expand the biomedical model and has often incorporated alternative modalities. This research described and compared the cultural models of healing of professional nurses and alternative healers. A group of nursing faculty who promote a holistic model were compared to a group of healers using healing touch. Ethnographic methods of participant observation, free listing and pile sort were used. Theoretical sampling in the free listings reached saturation at 18 in the group of nurses and 21 in the group of healers. Categories consistent for both groups emerged from the data. These were: physical, mental, attitude, relationships, spiritual, self management, and health seeking including biomedical and alternative resources. The healers had little differentiation between the concepts health and healing. The nurses, however, had more elements in self management for health and in health seeking for healing. This reflects the nurse's role in facilitating the shift in locus of responsibility between health and healing. The healers provided more specific information regarding alternative resources. The healer's conceptualization of health was embedded in a spiritual belief system and contrasted dramatically with that of biomedicine. The healer's models also contrasted with holistic health in the areas of holism, locus of responsibility, and dealing with uncertainty. The similarity between the groups and their dissimilarity to biomedicine suggest a larger cultural shift in beliefs regarding health care. ^

Mouse models and quantitative trait loci of susceptibility to bleomycin- and radiation-induced pulmonary fibrosis

Radiotherapy involving the thoracic cavity and chemotherapy with the drug bleomycin are both dose limited by the development of pulmonary fibrosis. From evidence that there is variation in the population in susceptibility to pulmonary fibrosis, and animal data, it was hypothesized that individual variation in susceptibility to bleomycin-induced, or radiation-induced, pulmonary fibrosis is, in part, genetically controlled. In this thesis a three generation mouse genetic model of C57BL/6J (fibrosis prone) and C3Hf/Kam (fibrosis resistant) mouse strains and F1 and F2 (F1 intercross) progeny derived from the parental strains was developed to investigate the genetic basis of susceptibility to fibrosis. In the bleomycin studies the mice received 100 mg/kg (125 for females) of bleomycin, via mini osmotic pump. The animals were sacrificed at eight weeks following treatment or when their breathing rate indicated respiratory distress. In the radiation studies the mice were given a single dose of 14 or 16 Gy (Co$\sp{60})$ to the whole thorax and were sacrificed when moribund. The phenotype was defined as the percent of fibrosis area in the left lung as quantified with image analysis of histological sections. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping was used to identify the chromosomal location of genes which contribute to susceptibility to bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis in C57BL/6J mice compared to C3Hf/Kam mice and to determine if the QTL's which influence susceptibility to bleomycin-induced lung fibrosis in these progenitor strains could be implicated in susceptibility to radiation-induced lung fibrosis. For bleomycin, a genome wide scan revealed QTL's on chromosome 17, at the MHC, (LOD = 11.7 for males and 7.2 for females) accounting for approximately 21% of the phenotypic variance, and on chromosome 11 (LOD = 4.9), in male mice only, adding 8% of phenotypic variance. The bleomycin QTL on chromosome 17 was also implicated for susceptibility to radiation-induced fibrosis (LOD = 5.0) and contributes 7% of the phenotypic variance in the radiation study. In conclusion, susceptibility to both bleomycin-induced and radiation-induced pulmonary fibrosis are heritable traits, and are influenced by a genetic factor which maps to a genomic region containing the MHC. ^

Patient information leaflets: informing or frightening? A focus group study exploring patients' emotional reactions and subsequent behavior towards package leaflets of commonly prescribed medications in family practices.

BACKGROUND The purpose of patient information leaflets (PILs) is to inform patients about the administration, precautions and potential side effects of their prescribed medication. Despite European Commission guidelines aiming at increasing readability and comprehension of PILs little is known about the potential risk information has on patients. This article explores patients' reactions and subsequent behavior towards risk information conveyed in PILs of commonly prescribed drugs by general practitioners (GPs) for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes, hypertension or hypercholesterolemia; the most frequent cause for consultations in family practices in Germany. METHODS We conducted six focus groups comprising 35 patients which were recruited in GP practices. Transcripts were read and coded for themes; categories were created by abstracting data and further refined into a coding framework. RESULTS Three interrelated categories are presented: (i) The vast amount of side effects and drug interactions commonly described in PILs provoke various emotional reactions in patients which (ii) lead to specific patient behavior of which (iii) consulting the GP for assistance is among the most common. Findings show that current description of potential risk information caused feelings of fear and anxiety in the reader resulting in undesirable behavioral reactions. CONCLUSIONS Future PILs need to convey potential risk information in a language that is less frightening while retaining the information content required to make informed decisions about the prescribed medication. Thus, during the production process greater emphasis needs to be placed on testing the degree of emotional arousal provoked in patients when reading risk information to allow them to undertake a benefit-risk-assessment of their medication that is based on rational rather than emotional (fearful) reactions.

Factors influencing the attitudes of cattle veterinarians, farmers, and claw trimmers towards the pain associated with the treatment of sole ulcers and the sensitivity to pain of dairy cows

This study assessed the attitudes of personnel involved in therapeutic claw trimming of dairy cattle in Switzerland towards pain associated with sole ulcers and their treatment. Data from 77 farmers, 32 claw trimmers, and 137 cattle veterinarians were used. A large range of factors were associated with whether the respondents thought that anaesthesia during the treatment of sole ulcers was beneficial; these included year of graduation, work experience, attitude to costs of analgesia, perception of competition between veterinarians and claw trimmers, estimation of pain level associated with treatment, estimated sensitivity of dairy cows to pain, knowledge of the obligation to provide analgesia, and whether the respondent thought lesion size and occurrence of defensive behaviour by the cow were important. Respondents' estimation of the pain level associated with sole ulcer treatment was linked to frequency of therapeutic claw trimming, age, farmers' income, estimated knowledge of the benefits of analgesia, and estimated sensitivity of dairy cows to pain. The latter factor was associated with profession, frequency of therapeutic claw trimming, capability of pain recognition, opinion on the benefits of analgesia, knowledge of the obligation to provide analgesia, and self-estimation of the ability to recognise pain. Improving the knowledge of personnel involved in therapeutic claw trimming with regard to pain in dairy cows and how to alleviate it is crucial if management of pain associated with treatment of sole ulcer and the welfare of lame cows are to be optimised.

Knowledge in software-maintenance outsourcing projects: beyond integration of business and technical knowledge

Knowledge processes are critical to outsourced software projects. According to outsourcing research, outsourced software projects succeed if they manage to integrate the client’s business knowledge and the vendor’s technical knowledge. In this paper, we submit that this view may not be wrong, but incomplete in a significant part of outsourced software work, which is software maintenance. Data from six software-maintenance outsourcing transitions indicate that more important than business or technical knowledge can be application knowledge, which vendor engineers acquire over time during practice. Application knowledge was the dominant knowledge during knowledge transfer activities and its acquisition enabled vendor staff to solve maintenance tasks. We discuss implications for widespread assumptions in outsourcing research.

Treatment of echinococcosis: albendazole and mebendazole - what else?

The search for novel therapeutic options to cure alveolar echinococcosis (AE), due to the metacestode of Echinococcus multilocularis, is ongoing, and these developments could also have a profound impact on the treatment of cystic echinococcosis (CE), caused by the closely related Echinococcus granulosus s.l. Several options are being explored. A viable strategy for the identification of novel chemotherapeutically valuable compounds includes whole-organism drug screening, employing large-scale in vitro metacestode cultures and, upon identification of promising compounds, verification of drug efficacy in small laboratory animals. Clearly, the current focus is targeted towards broad-spectrum anti-parasitic or anti-cancer drugs and compound classes that are already marketed, or that are in development for other applications. The availability of comprehensive Echinococcus genome information and gene expression data, as well as significant progress on the molecular level, has now opened the door for a more targeted drug discovery approach, which allows exploitation of defined pathways and enzymes that are essential for the parasite. In addition, current in vitro and in vivo models that are used to assess drug efficacy should be optimized and complemented by methods that give more detailed information on the host-parasite interactions that occur during drug treatments. The key to success is to identify, target and exploit those parasite molecules that orchestrate activities essential to parasite survival.

Perception of critical situations involving football fans: dynamics of conflict escalation and de-escalation

Title: The perception of critical situations involving football fans – how conflicts escalate or de-escalate Authors: Brechbühl, A.1, Schumacher, A.1 & Seiler, R.1 1Institute of Sport Science, University of Bern, Switzerland Abstract: Introduction: Fan violence in the context of football matches is a prominent issue in today’s western societies and Switzerland presents no exception. A lot of research has been conducted on reasons for fan violence, mostly with fans of national teams. A prominent model is the Elaborated Social Identity Model (ESIM; Drury & Reicher, 2000): ESIM highlights the importance of interactions between the involved groups and their effect on the development of social identities. Another model is the aggravation mitigation model (AM model; Hylander & Guvå, 2010) which illustrates factors that can contribute towards an escalation or non-escalation of group violence, such as the “categorization” of the opponent group. Despite these models, research about the individual perceptions, and in particular, what factors distinguish between an escalation versus a non-escalation of a potentially violent situation in domestic football, is as yet scarce. This explorative study examines perceptions of critical situations in the domestic football fan context in Switzerland. Methods: An explorative qualitative design was employed to gather data about critical situations (CS) around football matches of two clubs of the Raiffeisen Super League. A CS is defined as a setting in or around the football stadium where violence between football fans and another group could occur. Eight CS were identified and analysed. Fifty-nine narrative interviews with individuals involved in a CS, e.g. fans, police officers or security personnel, were conducted. Interviews were analysed using interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA). Results: The involved opposing groups expressed group-specific perceptions. Furthermore a strong tendency to negatively stereotype the opponent group was observed. Provocative symbols, such as balaclavas or riot-gear uniforms, were considered as highly relevant for the interpretation of the situation. Successful communication and sufficient distance between opponent groups supported the appeasement of a CS. These findings also underline the importance of knowledge about the local fan culture. This culture serves as basis for the perception of legitimacy, which was assessed to be essential for a de-escalation of a CS by fans. Discussion/Conclusion: This study improves the understanding of fan violence in the domestic football context in Switzerland. Based on the results it is suggested to deploy security or police forces without riot gear but with the goal of seeking dialogue with the fans to increase the likelihood of a peaceful ending in a CS. The findings also support the applicability of the ESIM (Drury & Reicher, 2000) and the AM model (Hylander & Guvå, 2010) in the context of domestic fan violence. Due to possible differences in the local fan cultures in Switzerland, research in this area should be continued. References: Drury, J., & Reicher, S. (2000). Collective action and psychological change: The emergence of new social identities. British Journal of Social Psychology, 39, 579-604. Hylander, I., & Guvå, G. (2010). Misunderstanding of out-group behaviour: Different interpretations of the same crowd events among police officers and demonstrators. Nordic Psychology, 62, 25-47.

Towards an analysis of tonal patterns in Amawaka, a Panoan language of Peru and Brazil

Amawaka ([ɑmɨ̃ˈwɐkɑ]) is a highly endangered and underdocumented tonal language of the Headwaters (Fleck 2011) subgroup of the Panoan family in the Southwest Amazon Basin, spoken by approximately 200 people. Undocumented phonetic and phonological phenomena of Amawaka include its tonal structure, both in terms of surface realizations and the patterns underlying these realizations. Original audiovisual data from the author’s fieldwork in various Amawaka communities at the Peru-Brazil border will illuminate the as-yet obscure tonal systematicity of the language. Unlike other elements, monosyllabic bimoraic phonological nominal words with long vowels display variation in their surface realization. All the words with the open back unrounded /ɑ/, like /ˈkɑ̀:/ (a traditional Amazonian dish), /ˈnɑ̀:/ “mestizo” etc. [with the exception of /ˈtɑ:/ “reed”, which surfaces with either a H or L tone] bear a low tone in isolation. This realization contrasts with all the encountered nominal monosyllables with vowels from the close and close-mid front and central spectrum /i, ɘ, ɨ, ɨ̃/, which clearly surface as high tone words in isolation, for example /ˈmɨ̃́:/ (a clay-lick for animals), /ˈwí:/ “Anopheles, spp. mosquito”. Monosyllables with close-mid back rounded /o/ have a less restrictive pitch that varies among speakers from low to high realizations, and sometimes even across the speech tokens from an individual speaker, e.g. /wó:/ or /wō:/ “hair”, /ɧō:/ or /ɧò:/ (a type of tarantula). Phrasal tonal phonology is more complex, when these three kinds of monosyllables appear in larger noun phrases. Some retain the same surface tones as their isolation form, while others seem to vary freely in their surface realization, e.g. /ˈtɘ́:.nɑ̀:/ or /ˈtɘ́:.nɑ́:/ ‘one mestizo’. Yet other monosyllables, e.g. /mɑ̀:/, exhibit a falling tone when preceded by a H syllable, suggesting probably latent tone sandhi phenomena, e.g /ˈtɘ́:.mɑ̂:/ (one clay-lick for parrots). In disyllabic, trisyllabic and quadrisyllabic nouns, tonal and stress patterns generally seem to be more consistent and tend to be retained both in isolation and in larger intonational phrases. Disyllabic nouns, for instance, surface as L-H or L-L when a glottal stop is in coda position. The association of L with a glottal stop is a feature that occurs in other Panoan languages as well, like Capanahua (Loos 1969), and more generally it is an areal feature, found in other parts of Amazonia (Hyman 2010). So, tone has significant interactions with the glottal stop and glottalization, which generally co-occurs with L. The data above suggest that the underlying tonal system of Amawaka is much more complex than the privative one-tone analysis (/H/ vs. Ø, i.e. lack of tone) that was proposed by Russell and Russell (1959). Evidence from field data suggests either an equipollent (Hyman 2010) two-tone opposition between /H/ and /L/, or a hybrid system, with both equipollent and privative features; that is, /H/ vs. /L/ vs. either Ø or /M/. This first systematic description of Amawaka tone, in conjunction with ongoing research, is poised to address broader questions concerning interrelationships between surface/underlying tone and other suprasegmental features, such as nasality, metrical stress, and intonation. References Fleck, David W. 2011. Panoan languages and linguistics. In Javier Ruedas and David W. Fleck (Eds.), Panoan Histories and Interethnic Identities, To appear. Hyman, Larry. 2010. Amazonia and the typology of tone systems. Presented at the conference Amazonicas III: The structure of the Amazonian languages. Bogotá. Loos, Eugene E. 1969. The phonology of Capanahua and its grammatical basis. Norman: SIL and U. Oklahoma. Russell, Robert & Dolores. 1959. Syntactotonemics in Amahuaca (Pano). Série Lingüistica Especial, 128-167. Publicaçoes do Museu Nacional, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.

Comparison of 3D kinetic and hydrodynamic models to ROSINA-COPS measurements of the neutral coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P) is a Jupiter-family comet and the object of investigation of the European Space Agency mission Rosetta. This report presents the first full 3D simulation results of 67P’s neutral gas coma. In this study we include results from a direct simulation Monte Carlo method, a hydrodynamic code, and a purely geometric calculation which computes the total illuminated surface area on the nucleus. All models include the triangulated 3D shape model of 67P as well as realistic illumination and shadowing conditions. The basic concept is the assumption that these illumination conditions on the nucleus are the main driver for the gas activity of the comet. As a consequence, the total production rate of 67P varies as a function of solar insolation. The best agreement between the model and the data is achieved when gas fluxes on the night side are in the range of 7% to 10% of the maximum flux, accounting for contributions from the most volatile components. To validate the output of our numerical simulations we compare the results of all three models to in situ gas number density measurements from the ROSINA COPS instrument. We are able to reproduce the overall features of these local neutral number density measurements of ROSINA COPS for the time period between early August 2014 and January 1 2015 with all three models. Some details in the measurements are not reproduced and warrant further investigation and refinement of the models. However, the overall assumption that illumination conditions on the nucleus are at least an important driver of the gas activity is validated by the models. According to our simulation results we find the total production rate of 67P to be constant between August and November 2014 with a value of about 1 × 10²⁶ molecules s⁻¹.

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data-constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere midlatitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses, and the free-running climate Max Planck Institute–Earth System Model–Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral dom ains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15–20 days. At shorter time scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

A survey of the implementation status of environmental management systems in U.S. colleges and universities, and, An environmental management system implementation model for U.S. colleges and universities

A census of 925 U.S. colleges and universities offering masters and doctorate degrees was conducted in order to study the number of elements of an environmental management system as defined by ISO 14001 possessed by small, medium and large institutions. A 30% response rate was received with 273 responses included in the final data analysis. Overall, the number of ISO 14001 elements implemented among the 273 institutions ranged from 0 to 16, with a median of 12. There was no significant association between the number of elements implemented among institutions and the size of the institution (p = 0.18; Kruskal-Wallis test) or among USEPA regions (p = 0.12; Kruskal-Wallis test). The proportion of U.S. colleges and universities that reported having implemented a structured, comprehensive environmental management system, defined by answering yes to all 16 elements, was 10% (95% C.I. 6.6%–14.1%); however 38% (95% C.I. 32.0%–43.8%) reported that they had implemented a structured, comprehensive environmental management system, while 30.0% (95% C.I. 24.7%–35.9%) are planning to implement a comprehensive environmental management system within the next five years. Stratified analyses were performed by institution size, Carnegie Classification and job title. ^ The Osnabruck model, and another under development by the South Carolina Sustainable Universities Initiative, are the only two environmental management system models that have been proposed specifically for colleges and universities, although several guides are now available. The Environmental Management System Implementation Model for U.S. Colleges and Universities developed is an adaptation of the ISO 14001 standard and USEPA recommendations and has been tailored to U.S. colleges and universities for use in streamlining the implementation process. In using this implementation model created for the U.S. research and academic setting, it is hoped that these highly specialized institutions will be provided with a clearer and more cost-effective path towards the implementation of an EMS and greater compliance with local, state and federal environmental legislation. ^

Selection bias and the cross-validation of regression models for prediction

Strategies are compared for the development of a linear regression model with stochastic (multivariate normal) regressor variables and the subsequent assessment of its predictive ability. Bias and mean squared error of four estimators of predictive performance are evaluated in simulated samples of 32 population correlation matrices. Models including all of the available predictors are compared with those obtained using selected subsets. The subset selection procedures investigated include two stopping rules, C$\sb{\rm p}$ and S$\sb{\rm p}$, each combined with an 'all possible subsets' or 'forward selection' of variables. The estimators of performance utilized include parametric (MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$) and non-parametric (PRESS) assessments in the entire sample, and two data splitting estimates restricted to a random or balanced (Snee's DUPLEX) 'validation' half sample. The simulations were performed as a designed experiment, with population correlation matrices representing a broad range of data structures.^ The techniques examined for subset selection do not generally result in improved predictions relative to the full model. Approaches using 'forward selection' result in slightly smaller prediction errors and less biased estimators of predictive accuracy than 'all possible subsets' approaches but no differences are detected between the performances of C$\sb{\rm p}$ and S$\sb{\rm p}$. In every case, prediction errors of models obtained by subset selection in either of the half splits exceed those obtained using all predictors and the entire sample.^ Only the random split estimator is conditionally (on $\\beta$) unbiased, however MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$ is unbiased on average and PRESS is nearly so in unselected (fixed form) models. When subset selection techniques are used, MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$ and PRESS always underestimate prediction errors, by as much as 27 percent (on average) in small samples. Despite their bias, the mean squared errors (MSE) of these estimators are at least 30 percent less than that of the unbiased random split estimator. The DUPLEX split estimator suffers from large MSE as well as bias, and seems of little value within the context of stochastic regressor variables.^ To maximize predictive accuracy while retaining a reliable estimate of that accuracy, it is recommended that the entire sample be used for model development, and a leave-one-out statistic (e.g. PRESS) be used for assessment. ^