Using social network analysis to identify key stakeholders in agricultural biodiversity governance and related land-use decisions at regional and local level

In 2013 the European Commission launched its new green infrastructure strategy to make another attempt to stop and possibly reverse the loss of biodiversity until 2020, by connecting habitats in the wider landscape. This means that conservation would go beyond current practices to include landscapes that are dominated by conventional agriculture, where biodiversity conservation plays a minor role at best. The green infrastructure strategy aims at bottom-up rather than top-down implementation, and suggests including local and regional stakeholders. Therefore, it is important to know which stakeholders influence land-use decisions concerning green infrastructure at the local and regional level. The research presented in this paper served to select stakeholders in preparation for a participatory scenario development process to analyze consequences of different implementation options of the European green infrastructure strategy. We used a mix of qualitative and quantitative social network analysis (SNA) methods to combine actors’ attributes, especially concerning their perceived influence, with structural and relational measures. Further, our analysis provides information on institutional backgrounds and governance settings for green infrastructure and agricultural policy. The investigation started with key informant interviews at the regional level in administrative units responsible for relevant policies and procedures such as regional planners, representatives of federal ministries, and continued at the local level with farmers and other members of the community. The analysis revealed the importance of information flows and regulations but also of social pressure, considerably influencing biodiversity governance with respect to green infrastructure and biodiversity.

Predicting bee community responses to land-use changes: Effects of geographic and taxonomic biases

Land-use change and intensification threaten bee populations worldwide, imperilling pollination services. Global models are needed to better characterise, project, and mitigate bees' responses to these human impacts. The available data are, however, geographically and taxonomically unrepresentative; most data are from North America and Western Europe, overrepresenting bumblebees and raising concerns that model results may not be generalizable to other regions and taxa. To assess whether the geographic and taxonomic biases of data could undermine effectiveness of models for conservation policy, we have collated from the published literature a global dataset of bee diversity at sites facing land-use change and intensification, and assess whether bee responses to these pressures vary across 11 regions (Western, Northern, Eastern and Southern Europe; North, Central and South America; Australia and New Zealand; South East Asia; Middle and Southern Africa) and between bumblebees and other bees. Our analyses highlight strong regionally-based responses of total abundance, species richness and Simpson's diversity to land use, caused by variation in the sensitivity of species and potentially in the nature of threats. These results suggest that global extrapolation of models based on geographically and taxonomically restricted data may underestimate the true uncertainty, increasing the risk of ecological surprises.

Estimates of global sources and sinks of carbon from land cover and land use changes

The distribution of sources and sinks of carbon over the land surface is dominated by changes in land use such as deforestation, reforestation, and agricultural management. Despite, the importance of land-use change in dominating long-term net terrestrial fluxes of carbon, estimates of the annual flux are uncertain relative to other terms in the global carbon budget. The interaction of the nitrogen cycle via atmospheric N inputs and N limitation with the carbon cycle contributes to the uncertain effect of land use change on terrestrial carbon uptake. This study uses two different land use datasets to force the geographically explicit terrestrial carbon-nitrogen coupled component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) to examine the response of terrestrial carbon stocks to historical LCLUC (cropland, pastureland and wood harvest) while accounting for changes in N deposition, atmospheric CO2 and climate. One of the land use datasets is based on satellite data (SAGE) while the other uses population density maps (HYDE), which allows this study to investigate how global LCLUC data construction can affect model estimated emissions. The timeline chosen for this study starts before the Industrial Revolution in 1765 to the year 2000 because of the influence of rising population and economic development on regional LCLUC. Additionally, this study evaluates the impact that resulting secondary forests may have on terrestrial carbon uptake. The ISAM model simulations indicate that uncertainties in net terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 1990s are largely due to uncertainties in regional LCLUC data. Also results show that secondary forests increase the terrestrial carbon sink but secondary tropical forests carbon uptake are constrained due to nutrient limitation.

Previous land use and climate influence differences in soil organic carbon following reforestation of agricultural land with mixed-species plantings

Reforestation of agricultural land with mixed-species environmental plantings (native trees and shrubs) can contribute to mitigation of climate change through sequestration of carbon. Although soil carbon sequestration following reforestation has been investigated at site- and regional-scales, there are few studies across regions where the impact of a broad range of site conditions and management practices can be assessed. We collated new and existing data on soil organic carbon (SOC, 0–30 cm depth, N = 117 sites) and litter (N = 106 sites) under mixed-species plantings and an agricultural pair or baseline across southern and eastern Australia. Sites covered a range of previous land uses, initial SOC stocks, climatic conditions and management types. Differences in total SOC stocks following reforestation were significant at 52% of sites, with a mean rate of increase of 0.57 ± 0.06 Mg C ha−1 y−1. Increases were largely in the particulate fraction, which increased significantly at 46% of sites compared with increases at 27% of sites for the humus fraction. Although relative increase was highest in the particulate fraction, the humus fraction was the largest proportion of total SOC and so absolute differences in both fractions were similar. Accumulation rates of carbon in litter were 0.39 ± 0.02 Mg C ha−1 y−1, increasing the total (soil + litter) annual rate of carbon sequestration by 68%. Previously-cropped sites accumulated more SOC than previously-grazed sites. The explained variance differed widely among empirical models of differences in SOC stocks following reforestation according to SOC fraction and depth for previously-grazed (R2 = 0.18–0.51) and previously-cropped (R2 = 0.14–0.60) sites. For previously-grazed sites, differences in SOC following reforestation were negatively related to total SOC in the pasture. By comparison, for previously-cropped sites, differences in SOC were positively related to mean annual rainfall. This improved broad-scale understanding of the magnitude and predictors of changes in stocks of soil and litter C following reforestation is valuable for the development of policy on carbon markets and the establishment of future mixed-species environmental plantings.

Land use and zoning map, Jackson Brook watershed, Morris County, New Jersey /

Shows "1988 land use."

High spatial resolution land use and land cover mapping of the Brazilian Legal Amazon in 2008 using Landsat-5/TM and MODIS data.

Understanding spatial patterns of land use and land cover is essential for studies addressing biodiversity, climate change and environmental modeling as well as for the design and monitoring of land use policies. The aim of this study was to create a detailed map of land use land cover of the deforested areas of the Brazilian Legal Amazon up to 2008. Deforestation data from and uses were mapped with Landsat-5/TM images analysed with techniques, such as linear spectral mixture model, threshold slicing and visual interpretation, aided by temporal information extracted from NDVI MODIS time series. The result is a high spatial resolution of land use and land cover map of the entire Brazilian Legal Amazon for the year 2008 and corresponding calculation of area occupied by different land use classes. The results showed that the four classes of Pasture covered 62% of the deforested areas of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, followed by Secondary Vegetation with 21%. The area occupied by Annual Agriculture covered less than 5% of deforested areas; the remaining areas were distributed among six other land use classes. The maps generated from this project ? called TerraClass - are available at INPE?s web site (http://www.inpe.br/cra/projetos_pesquisas/terraclass2008.php)

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Analysis of Land Use Change as a Method of Predicting Water Demands in an Urbanizing Environment: Redland, Miami-Dade County, Florida

The fluctuation in water demand in the Redland community of Miami-Dade County was examined using land use data from 2001 and 2011 and water estimation techniques provided by local and state agencies. The data was converted to 30 m mosaicked raster grids that indicated land use change, and associated water demand measured in gallons per day per acre. The results indicate that, first, despite an increase in population, water demand decreased overall in Redland from 2001 to 2011. Second, conversion of agricultural lands to residential lands actually caused a decrease in water demand in most cases while acquisition of farmland by public agencies also caused a sharp decline. Third, conversion of row crops and groves to nurseries was substantial and resulted in a significant increase in water demand in all such areas converted. Finally, estimating water demand based on land use, rather than population, is a more accurate approach.

Climate, Land Use and Hydrologic Sensitivities of Stormwater Quantity and Quality in Complex Coastal Urban Watersheds

The study analyzed hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff and quality in the complex coastal urban watershed of Miami River Basin, Florida by developing a Storm Water Management Model (EPA SWMM 5). Regression-based empirical models were also developed to explain stream water quality in relation to internal (land uses and hydrology) and external (upstream contribution, seawater) sources and drivers in six highly urbanized canal basins of Southeast Florida. Stormwater runoff and quality were most sensitive to rainfall, imperviousness, and conversion of open lands/parks to residential, commercial and industrial areas. In-stream dissolved oxygen and total phosphorus in the watersheds were dictated by internal stressors while external stressors were dominant for total nitrogen and specific conductance. The research findings and tools will be useful for proactive monitoring and management of storm runoff and urban stream water quality under the changing climate and environment in South Florida and around the world.

Land use change from rainforests to oil palm plantations and food gardens in Papua New Guinea: Effects on soil properties and S fractions

Changes in soil sulfur (S) fractions were assessed in oil palm and food garden land use systems developed on forest vegetation in humid tropical areas of Popondetta in northern Province. The study tested a hypothesis that S in food gardens are limiting nutrient factor and are significantly lower than in plantations and forests. Subsistence food gardens are under long-term slash and burn practice of cropping and such practice is expected to accelerate loss of biomass S from the ecosystem. From each land use, surface soil (0–15 cm) samples were characterised and further pseudocomplete fractionated for S. Conversion of forest to oil palm production decreased (p<0.001) soil pH and electrical conductivity values. The reserve S fraction in soil increased significantly (p<0.05) due to oil palm production ( 28 %) and food gardening activity (∼ 54 %). However, plant available SO42--S was below 15 mg kg^(−1) in the food garden soils and foliar samples of sweet potato crop indicating deficiency of plant available S. Soil organic carbon content (OC) was positively and significantly correlated to total S content (r=0.533; p<0.001) among the land use systems. Thus, crop management practices that affect OC status of the soils would potentially affect the S availability in soils. The possible changes in the chemical nature of mineralisable organic S compounds leading to enhanced mineralisation and leaching losses could be the reasons for the deficiency of S in the food garden soils. The results of this study conclude that long-term subsistence food gardening activity enriched top soils with reserve S or total S content at the expense of soluble S fraction. The subsistence cropping practices such as biomass burning in food gardens and reduced fallow periods are apparently threatening food security of oil palm households. Improved soil OC management strategies such as avoiding burning of fallow vegetation, improved fallows, mulching with fallow biomass, use of manures and S containing fertilisers must be promoted to sustain food security in smallholder oil palm system.

Land use and environmental factors affecting red-legged partridge (Alectoris rufa) hunting yields in southern Spain

The red-legged partridge is a small game species widely hunted in southern Spain. Its commercial use has important socioeconomic effects in rural areas where other agrarian uses are of marginal importance. The aims of the present work were to identify areas in Andalusia (southern Spain) where game yields for the red-legged partridge reach high values and to establish the environmental and land use factors that determine them. We analysed 32,134 annual hunting reports (HRs) produced by 6,049 game estates during the hunting seasons 1993/1994 to 2001/2002 to estimate the average hunting yields of red-legged partridge in each Andalusian municipality (n=771). We modelled the favourability for obtaining good hunting yields using stepwise logistic regression on a set of climatic, topographical, land use and vegetation variables that were available as digital coverages or tabular data applied to municipalities. Good hunting yields occur mainly in plain areas located in the Guadalquivir valley, at the bottom of Betic Range and in the Betic depressions. Favourable areas are related to highly mechanised, lowelevation areas mainly dedicated to intensive dry crops. The most favourable areas predicted by our model are mainly located in the Guadalquivir valley.

Direct nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes from soils under different land use in Brazil: a critical review.

Brazil typifies the land use changes happening in South America, where natural vegetation is continuously converted into agriculturally used lands, such as cattle pastures and croplands. Such changes in land use are always associated with changes in the soil nutrient cycles and result in altered greenhouse gas fluxes from the soil to the atmosphere. In this study, we analyzed literature values to extract patterns of direct nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from soils of different ecosystems in Brazil. Fluxes from natural ecosystems exhibited a wide range: whereas median annual flux rates were highest in Amazonian and Atlantic rainforests (2.42 and 0.88 kg N ha-1), emissions from cerrado soils were close to zero. The decrease in emissions from pastures with increasing time after conversion was associated with pasture degradation. We found comparatively low N2O-N fluxes from croplands (-0.07 to 4.26 kg N ha-1 yr-1 , median 0.80 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and a low response to N fertilization. Contrary to the assumptions, soil parameters, such as pH, Corg, and clay content emerged as poor predictors for N2O fluxes. This could be a result of the formation of micro-aggregates, which strongly affect the hydraulic properties of the soil, and consequently define nitrification and denitrification potentials. Since data from croplands mainly derived from areas that had been under natural cerrado vegetation before, it could explain the low emissions under agriculture. Measurements must be more frequent and regionally spread in order to enable sound national estimates.

Supporting land use change modelling with automated monitoring of land use dynamics in the La Plata River Basin.

2008

Sensor TTC - the La Plata River basin application: policy cases, main land use change drivers and case studies.

2008

Carbon sequestration associated to the land-use and land-cover changes in the forestry sector in Southern Brazil.

We studied the Paraíba do Sul river watershed , São Paulo state (PSWSP), Southeastern Brazil, in order to assess the land use and cover (LULC) and their implication s to the amount of carbon (C) stored in the forest cover between the years 1985 and 2015. Th e region covers a n area of 1,395,975 ha . We used images made by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) sensor (OLI/Landsat - 8) to produce mappings , and image segmentation techniques to produce vectors with homogeneous characteristics. The training samples and the samples used for classification and validation were collected from the segmented image. To quantify the C stocked in aboveground live biomass (AGLB) , we used an indirect method and applied literature - based reference values. The recovery of 205,690 ha of a secondary Native Forest (NF) after 1985 sequestered 9.7 Tg (Teragram) of C . Considering the whole NF area (455,232 ha), the amount of C accumulated al ong the whole watershed was 3 5 .5 Tg , and the whole Eucalyptus crop (EU) area (113,600 ha) sequester ed 4. 4 Tg of C. Thus, the total amount of C sequestered in the whole watershed (NF + EU) was 3 9 . 9 Tg of C or 1 45 . 6 Tg of CO 2 , and the NF areas were responsible for the large st C stock at the watershed (8 9 %). Therefore , the increase of the NF cover contribut es positively to the reduction of CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere, and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD + ) may become one of the most promising compensation mechanisms for the farmers who increased forest cover at their farms.