A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Clinical practice guidelines in Portugal : quantitative and qualitative evaluation

RESUMO: Introdução As normas de orientação clínica são ferramentas úteis na translação de conhecimentos desde a investigação para a prática clínica diária. Estratégias ativas de implementação de normas de orientação clínica requerem elevado esforço organizacional e financeiro. Quando os recursos são escassos, as estratégias passivas podem ser a única opção de disseminação. Desde 2011 a Direção Geral da Saúde publicou cento e cinquenta e nove normas de orientação clínica. Nesta Tese é feita uma avaliação do impacto que estratégias de disseminação de normas de orientação clínica têm no padrão de prescrição dos médicos e uma avaliação qualitativa do processo das normas de orientação clínica em Portugal. Métodos: O primeiro artigo é um estudo quasi experimental usando uma série de análises temporais interrompida para comparar os níveis observados e esperados de prescrição de inibidores da ciclooxigenasa-2, antes e depois da publicação da norma de orientação clínica sobre a utilização de anti-inflamatórios não esteroides. O segundo estudo é um artigo de opinião e debate no qual numa primeira parte contextualiza o processo das normas da Direcção Geral da Saúde, na segunda parte aponta virtudes e defeitos no processo e a terceira parte constitui uma contribuição com vista à melhoria do processo. Discussão A produção de normas de orientação clínica requer metodologia rigorosa e complexa. A literatura médica revela que a translação de conhecimento é uma tarefa árdua. Estratégias de implementação ativas requerem recursos financeiros e organizacionais sólidos. Estratégias de implementação passivas podem representar uma solução aceitável se os recursos financeiros e organizacionais escasseiam. Pouco é conhecido sobre a eficácia destas estratégias fora do contexto de investigação. Com esta Tese pretendo contribuir para a clarificação desta resposta, outros países e instituições podem ver utilidade nesta informação, bem como pretendo contribuir para a discussão e melhoria do processo das normas de orientação clínica em Portugal. ------------------ ABSTRACT: Introduction Clinical practice guidelines can help address the failure to translate research findings into clinical practice. Active clinical practice guidelines implementation strategies require active efforts from organizations and are resource and financially demanding. Passive implementation strategies may represent the only option if resources are scarce. Out of research environment, real world efficacy of passive implementation strategies is still undetermined. Since 2011 the Portuguese General Health Directorate published one hundred and fifty nine guidelines. In this Thesis I evaluate the impact of passive dissemination of clinical practice guideline in clinician’s prescription behavior and review, from a qualitative point of view, the Portuguese clinical practice guideline process. Methods The first study is a quasi-experimental study using a retrospective interrupted time-series analysis design to compare the observed and expected prescription of cyclooxygenase-2 before and after the non steroidal antiinflammatory guideline publication. The second study is an opinion and debate article in which I firstly review the General Health Directorate guideline process. The second part states positive and negative aspects in the process and the third part is a contribution aimed at improving the process in the future. Discussion Clinical practice guidelines production demands a rigorous and complex methodology. medical iterature reveals that knowledge translation is a difficult task. Active implementation strategies demand solid financial and organizational resources. Passive implementation strategies may represent an acceptable solution if financial and organizational resources are scarce. Little is known about the efficacy of these strategies out of the research context. With this Thesis I intend to contribute to clarify this question, other countries and institutions with similar conditions may find this information useful, and also to contribute for the discussion and general improvement of national clinical practice guidelines process.

Estudo de viabilidade de paralelização de códigos de análise de dados em PROOF

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Informática

Spatial-temporal modellization of the NO2 concentration data through geostatistical tools

The nitrogen dioxide is a primary pollutant, regarded for the estimation of the air quality index, whose excessive presence may cause significant environmental and health problems. In the current work, we suggest characterizing the evolution of NO2 levels, by using geostatisti- cal approaches that deal with both the space and time coordinates. To develop our proposal, a first exploratory analysis was carried out on daily values of the target variable, daily measured in Portugal from 2004 to 2012, which led to identify three influential covariates (type of site, environment and month of measurement). In a second step, appropriate geostatistical tools were applied to model the trend and the space-time variability, thus enabling us to use the kriging techniques for prediction, without requiring data from a dense monitoring network. This method- ology has valuable applications, as it can provide accurate assessment of the nitrogen dioxide concentrations at sites where either data have been lost or there is no monitoring station nearby.

A VEP study in sleeping and awake one-month-old infants and its relation with social behavior

With the present study we aimed to analyze the relationship between infants' behavior and their visual evoked-potential (VEPs) response. Specifically, we want to verify differences regarding the VEP response in sleeping and awake infants and if an association between VEP components, in both groups, with neurobehavioral outcome could be identified. To do so, thirty-two full-term and healthy infants, approximately 1-month of age, were assessed through a VEP unpatterned flashlight stimuli paradigm, offered in two different intensities, and were assessed using a neurobehavioral scale. However, only 18 infants have both assessments, and therefore, these is the total included in both analysis. Infants displayed a mature neurobehavioral outcome, expected for their age. We observed that P2 and N3 components were present in both sleeping and awake infants. Differences between intensities were found regarding the P2 amplitude, but only in awake infants. Regression analysis showed that N3 amplitude predicted an adequate social interactive and internal regulatory behavior in infants who were awake during the stimuli presentation. Taking into account that social orientation and regulatory behaviors are fundamental keys for social-like behavior in 1-month-old infants, this study provides an important approach for assessing physiological biomarkers (VEPs) and its relation with social behavior, very early in postnatal development. Moreover, we evidence the importance of the infant's state when studying differences regarding visual threshold processing and its association with behavioral outcome.

Seismic behavior of concrete block masonry buildings

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Civil

Estudo de revestimentos ativos para o isolamento térmico de edifícios

Dissertação de mestrado em Sustentabilidade do Ambiente Construído

Soziale Repräsentationen des anthropogenen Klimawandels auf Sylt : eine explorative Analyse lokal kontextualisierter Vorstellungen von Schlüsselpersonen

Climate change, Sylt, key persons, participating groups, perception, social representations, semistructured open interview, analysis of frequency, analysis of homogenety, contextualization

Empiricism in ecological economics: a perspective from complex systems theory

Economies are open complex adaptive systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium, and neo-classical environmental economics seems not to be the best way to describe the behaviour of such systems. Standard econometric analysis (i.e. time series) takes a deterministic and predictive approach, which encourages the search for predictive policy to ‘correct’ environmental problems. Rather, it seems that, because of the characteristics of economic systems, an ex-post analysis is more appropriate, which describes the emergence of such systems’ properties, and which sees policy as a social steering mechanism. With this background, some of the recent empirical work published in the field of ecological economics that follows the approach defended here is presented. Finally, the conclusion is reached that a predictive use of econometrics (i.e. time series analysis) in ecological economics should be limited to cases in which uncertainty decreases, which is not the normal situation when analysing the evolution of economic systems. However, that does not mean we should not use empirical analysis. On the contrary, this is to be encouraged, but from a structural and ex-post point of view.

The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long-run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination which includes the relative labor productivity, the real interest rates and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate VAR model.

Functional sphere profiling reveals the complexity of neuroblastoma tumor-initiating cell model.

Neuroblastoma (NB) is a neural crest-derived childhood tumor characterized by a remarkable phenotypic diversity, ranging from spontaneous regression to fatal metastatic disease. Although the cancer stem cell (CSC) model provides a trail to characterize the cells responsible for tumor onset, the NB tumor-initiating cell (TIC) has not been identified. In this study, the relevance of the CSC model in NB was investigated by taking advantage of typical functional stem cell characteristics. A predictive association was established between self-renewal, as assessed by serial sphere formation, and clinical aggressiveness in primary tumors. Moreover, cell subsets gradually selected during serial sphere culture harbored increased in vivo tumorigenicity, only highlighted in an orthotopic microenvironment. A microarray time course analysis of serial spheres passages from metastatic cells allowed us to specifically "profile" the NB stem cell-like phenotype and to identify CD133, ABC transporter, and WNT and NOTCH genes as spheres markers. On the basis of combined sphere markers expression, at least two distinct tumorigenic cell subpopulations were identified, also shown to preexist in primary NB. However, sphere markers-mediated cell sorting of parental tumor failed to recapitulate the TIC phenotype in the orthotopic model, highlighting the complexity of the CSC model. Our data support the NB stem-like cells as a dynamic and heterogeneous cell population strongly dependent on microenvironmental signals and add novel candidate genes as potential therapeutic targets in the control of high-risk NB.

Establishing an association between a peri-operative perfusion score system (PerfSCORE) and post-operative patient morbidity/mortality during CPB cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: To date, there is no quality assurance program that correlates patient outcome to perfusion service provided during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). A score was devised, incorporating objective parameters that would reflect the likelihood to influence patient outcome. The purpose was to create a new method for evaluating the quality of care the perfusionist provides during CPB procedures and to deduce whether it predicts patient morbidity and mortality. METHODS: We analysed 295 consecutive elective patients. We chose 10 parameters: fluid balance, blood transfused, Hct, ACT, PaO2, PaCO2, pH, BE, potassium and CPB time. Distribution analysis was performed using the Shapiro-Wilcoxon test. This made up the PerfSCORE and we tried to find a correlation to mortality rate, patient stay in the ICU and length of mechanical ventilation. Univariate analysis (UA) using linear regression was established for each parameter. Statistical significance was established when p < 0.05. Multivariate analysis (MA) was performed with the same parameters. RESULTS: The mean age was 63.8 +/- 12.6 years with 70% males. There were 180 CABG, 88 valves, and 27 combined CABG/valve procedures. The PerfSCORE of 6.6 +/- 2.4 (0-20), mortality of 2.7% (8/295), CPB time 100 +/- 41 min (19-313), ICU stay 52 +/- 62 hrs (7-564) and mechanical ventilation of 10.5 +/- 14.8 hrs (0-564) was calculated. CPB time, fluid balance, PaO2, PerfSCORE and blood transfused were significantly correlated to mortality (UA, p < 0.05). Also, CPB time, blood transfused and PaO2 were parameters predicting mortality (MA, p < 0.01). Only pH was significantly correlated for predicting ICU stay (UA). Ultrafiltration (UF) and CPB time were significantly correlated (UA, p < 0.01) while UF (p < 0.05) was the only parameter predicting mechanical ventilation duration (MA). CONCLUSIONS: CPB time, blood transfused and PaO2 are independent risk factors of mortality. Fluid balance, blood transfusion, PaO2, PerfSCORE and CPB time are independent parameters for predicting morbidity. PerfSCORE is a quality of perfusion measure that objectively quantifies perfusion performance.

Forecast of acute respiratory infections: expected nonepidemic mobidity in Cuba

A forecast of nonepidemic morbidity due to acute respiratory infections were carry out by using time series analysis. The data consisted of the weekly reports of medical patient consultation from ambulatory facilities from the whole country. A version of regression model was fitted to the data. Using this approach, we were able to detect the starting data of the epidemic under routine surveillance conditions for various age groups. It will be necessary to improve the data reporting system in order to introduce these procedures at the local health center level, as well as on the provincial level.

Simultaneous Evaluation of Intact Glucosinolates and Phenolic Compounds by UPLC-DAD-MS/MS in Brassica oleracea L. var. botrytis

A method for the simultaneous determination of intact glucosinolates and main phenolic compounds (flavonoids and sinapic acid derivatives) in Brassica oleracea L. var. botrytis was proposed. A simplified sample extraction procedure and a UPLC separation were carried out to reduce the total time of analysis. Brassica oleracea samples were added with internal standards (glucotropaeolin and rutin), and extracted with boiling methanol. Crude extracts were evaporated under nitrogen, redissolved in mobile phase and analyzed by UPLC with double detection (ESI--MRM for glucosinolates and flavonoids, and DAD for main sinapic acid derivatives). The proposed method allowed a satisfactory quantification of main native sinapic acid derivatives, flavonoids and glucosinolates with a reduced time of analysis.

Schistosomiasis control in the State of São Paulo

The program of schistosomiasis control for the State of São Paulo, where only low endemicity areas occur, is discussed in this paper. Inclusion of schistosomiasis among the diseases due to obligatory notification is considered as a measure of great importance. Accordingly the search for passive cases conducted by the public health system acquired major importance in the disease surveillance. As from 1981 to 1992 only 11% of the detected cases were considered as autochthonous. The main transmission areas are located at the Litoral and Paraiba Valley regions. In the period of time under analysis, the epidemiological surveillance data suggest a decrease in the morbidity and in the autochthony tendency in the State of São Paulo.