Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

Two-dimensional mesh optimization in the finite element method

The solution to the problem of finding the optimum mesh design in the finite element method with the restriction of a given number of degrees of freedom, is an interesting problem, particularly in the applications method. At present, the usual procedures introduce new degrees of freedom (remeshing) in a given mesh in order to obtain a more adequate one, from the point of view of the calculation results (errors uniformity). However, from the solution of the optimum mesh problem with a specific number of degrees of freedom some useful recommendations and criteria for the mesh construction may be drawn. For 1-D problems, namely for the simple truss and beam elements, analytical solutions have been found and they are given in this paper. For the more complex 2-D problems (plane stress and plane strain) numerical methods to obtain the optimum mesh, based on optimization procedures have to be used. The objective function, used in the minimization process, has been the total potential energy. Some examples are presented. Finally some conclusions and hints about the possible new developments of these techniques are also given.

A short critical history of the application of genomics to animal breeding

Two scientific schools have been in coexistence from the beginning of genetics, one of them searching for factors of inheritance and the other one applying biometrical models to study the relationships between relatives. With the development of molecular genetics, the possibilities of detecting genes having a noticeable effect in traits augmented. Some genes with large or medium effects were localized in animals, although the most common result was to detect markers linked to these genes, allowing the possibility of assisting selection programs with markers. When a large amount of simple and inexpensive markers were available, the SNPs, new possibilities were opened since they did not need the presence of genes of large or medium effect controlling a trait, because the whole genome was scanned. Using a large amount of SNPs permits having a prediction of the breeding value at birth accurate enough to be used in some cases, like dairy cattle, to halve its generation interval. In other animal breeding programs, the implementation of genomic selection is less clear and the way in which it can be useful should be carefully studied. The need for large populations for associating phenotypic data and markers, plus the need for repeating the process continuously, complicates its application in some cases. The implementation of the information provided by the SNPs in current genetic programs has led to the development of complex statistical tools, joining the efforts of the two schools, factorial and biometrical, that nowadays work closely related.

Efficiency of DNA replication in the polymerase chain reaction

A detailed quantitative kinetic model for the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is developed, which allows us to predict the probability of replication of a DNA molecule in terms of the physical parameters involved in the system. The important issue of the determination of the number of PCR cycles during which this probability can be considered to be a constant is solved within the framework of the model. New phenomena of multimodality and scaling behavior in the distribution of the number of molecules after a given number of PCR cycles are presented. The relevance of the model for quantitative PCR is discussed, and a novel quantitative PCR technique is proposed.

Inducible expression of exogenous genes in Dictyostelium discoideum using the ribonucleotide reductase promoter

We report here the development of a regulated gene expression system for Dictyostelium discoideum based on the DNA-damage inducibility of the rnrB gene. rnrB, which codes for the small subunit of the enzyme ribonucleotide reductase, responds to DNA-damaging agents at all stages of the D.discoideum life cycle. Doses that have little effect on development have previously been shown to increase the level of the rnrB transcript by up to 15-fold. Here we show that all elements necessary for DNA-damage induction are contained in a 450 bp promoter fragment. We used a fusion of the rnrB promoter with the gene encoding GFP to demonstrate an up to 10-fold induction at the RNA level, which appears in all aspects similar to induction of the endogenous rnrB transcript. Using a fusion with the lacZ gene we observed an up to 7-fold induction at the protein level. These results indicate that the rnrB promoter can be used to regulate the expression of specific genes in D.discoideum. This controllable gene expression system provides the following new characteristics: the induction is rapid, taking place in the order of minutes, and the promoter is responsive at all stages of the D.discoideum life cycle.

HUNT: launch of a full-length cDNA database from the Helix Research Institute

The Helix Research Institute (HRI) in Japan is releasing 4356 HUman Novel Transcripts and related information in the newly established HUNT database. The institute is a joint research project principally funded by the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry, and the clones were sequenced in the governmental New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) Human cDNA Sequencing Project. The HUNT database contains an extensive amount of annotation from advanced analysis and represents an essential bioinformatics contribution towards understanding of the gene function. The HRI human cDNA clones were obtained from full-length enriched cDNA libraries constructed with the oligo-capping method and have resulted in novel full-length cDNA sequences. A large fraction has little similarity to any proteins of known function and to obtain clues about possible function we have developed original analysis procedures. Any putative function deduced here can be validated or refuted by complementary analysis results. The user can also extract information from specific categories like PROSITE patterns, PFAM domains, PSORT localization, transmembrane helices and clones with GENIUS structure assignments. The HUNT database can be accessed at http://www.hri.co.jp/HUNT.

Nesting In The Clouds: Evaluating And Predicting Sea Turtle Nesting Beach Parameters From Lidar Data

Humans' desire for knowledge regarding animal species and their interactions with the natural world have spurred centuries of studies. The relatively new development of remote sensing systems using satellite or aircraft-borne sensors has opened up a wide field of research, which unfortunately largely remains dependent on coarse-scale image spatial resolution, particularly for habitat modeling. For habitat-specialized species, such data may not be sufficient to successfully capture the nuances of their preferred areas. Of particular concern are those species for which topographic feature attributes are a main limiting factor for habitat use. Coarse spatial resolution data can smooth over details that may be essential for habitat characterization. Three studies focusing on sea turtle nesting beaches were completed to serve as an example of how topography can be a main deciding factor for certain species. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data were used to illustrate that fine spatial scale data can provide information not readily captured by either field work or coarser spatial scale sources. The variables extracted from the LiDAR data could successfully model nesting density for loggerhead (Caretta caretta), green (Chelonia mydas), and leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) sea turtle species using morphological beach characteristics, highlight beach changes over time and their correlations with nesting success, and provide comparisons for nesting density models across large geographic areas. Comparisons between the LiDAR dataset and other digital elevation models (DEMs) confirmed that fine spatial scale data sources provide more similar habitat information than those with coarser spatial scales. Although these studies focused solely on sea turtles, the underlying principles are applicable for many other wildlife species whose range and behavior may be influenced by topographic features.

A memetic algorithm for the delineation of local labour markets

Given a territory composed of basic geographical units, the delineation of local labour market areas (LLMAs) can be seen as a problem in which those units are grouped subject to multiple constraints. In previous research, standard genetic algorithms were not able to find valid solutions, and a specific evolutionary algorithm was developed. The inclusion of multiple ad hoc operators allowed the algorithm to find better solutions than those of a widely-used greedy method. However, the percentage of invalid solutions was still very high. In this paper we improve that evolutionary algorithm through the inclusion of (i) a reparation process, that allows every invalid individual to fulfil the constraints and contribute to the evolution, and (ii) a hillclimbing optimisation procedure for each generated individual by means of an appropriate reassignment of some of its constituent units. We compare the results of both techniques against the previous results and a greedy method.

Ordered porous nanomaterials: the merit of small

This paper will introduce the reader to some of the “classical” and “new” families of ordered porous materials which have arisen throughout the past decades and/or years. From what is perhaps the best-known family of zeolites, which even now to this day is under constant research, to the exciting new family of hierarchical porous materials, the number of strategies, structures, porous textures, and potential applications grows with every passing day. We will attempt to put these new families into perspective from a synthetic and applied point of view in order to give the reader as broad a perspective as possible into these exciting materials.

Minimizing the IOL Power Error Induced by Keratometric Power

Purpose. To evaluate theoretically in normal eyes the influence on IOL power (PIOL) calculation of the use of a keratometric index (nk) and to analyze and validate preliminarily the use of an adjusted keratometric index (nkadj) in the IOL power calculation (PIOLadj). Methods. A model of variable keratometric index (nkadj) for corneal power calculation (Pc) was used for IOL power calculation (named PIOLadj). Theoretical differences ($PIOL) between the new proposed formula (PIOLadj) and which is obtained through Gaussian optics (PIOL Gauss) were determined using Gullstrand and Le Grand eye models. The proposed new formula for IOL power calculation (PIOLadj) was prevalidated clinically in 81 eyes of 81 candidates for corneal refractive surgery and compared with Haigis, HofferQ, Holladay, and SRK/T formulas. Results. A theoretical PIOL underestimation greater than 0.5 diopters was present in most of the cases when nk = 1.3375 was used. If nkadj was used for Pc calculation, a maximal calculated error in $PIOL of T0.5 diopters at corneal vertex in most cases was observed independently from the eye model, r1c, and the desired postoperative refraction. The use of nkadj in IOL power calculation (PIOLadj) could be valid with effective lens position optimization nondependent of the corneal power. Conclusions. The use of a single value of nk for Pc calculation can lead to significant errors in PIOL calculation that may explain some IOL power overestimations with conventional formulas. These inaccuracies can be minimized by using the new PIOLadj based on the algorithm of nkadj.

Semantic change and intersubjectification: The origin of reprise evidential conditional in Old Catalan

The reprise evidential conditional (REC) is nowadays not very usual in Catalan: it is restricted to journalistic language and to some very formal genres (such as academic or legal language), it is not present in spontaneous discourse. On the one hand, it has been described among the rather new modality values of the conditional. On the other, the normative tradition tended to reject it for being a gallicism, or to describe it as an unsuitable neologism. Thanks to the extraction from text corpora, we surprisingly find this REC in Catalan from the beginning of the fourteenth century to the contemporary age, with semantic and pragmatic nuances and different evidence of grammaticalization. Due to the current interest in evidentiality, the REC has been widely studied in French, Italian and Portuguese, focusing mainly on its contemporary uses and not so intensively on the diachronic process that could explain the origin of this value. In line with this research, that we initiated studying the epistemic and evidential future in Catalan, our aim is to describe: a) the pragmatic context that could have been the initial point of the REC in the thirteenth century, before we find indisputable attestations of this use; b) the path of semantic change followed by the conditional from a ‘future in the past’ tense to the acquisition of epistemic and evidential values; and c) the role played by invited inferences, subjectification and intersubjectification in this change.

Samuel Hazlet puts in his place James Duane his attorney against Thomas Dignel in a plea of trespass against the case, 1757

Title from verso.

New York, N.Y. and vicinity, 1777 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: The country twenty five miles round New York, drawn by a gentleman from that city ; J. Barber, sculp., Holborn Hill. It was published by ... W. Hawkes (successor to T. Kitchin), No. 59, Holborn Hill, 1st January, 1777. Scale [ca. 1:220,000]. Covers the Metropolitan New York region. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Zone 18N NAD83 projection. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, drainage, cities and towns, battle sites, fortifications, points of military interests, and more. Relief is shown pictorially. Shows radial distances from New York. Includes notes on military battles, "Chronological table of the most interesting occurrences since the commencement of hostilities in North America," distance table, and statistics of population and troops in lower margin. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

New York, N.Y. and vicinity, 1961 : Paterson, N.J.-N.Y. (8 Sheet Set) (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the United States Geological Survey 7.5 minute topographic sheet map entitled: New York and vicinity : Paterson, N.J.-N.Y., 1955. It is part of an 8 sheet map set covering the metropolitan New York City area. It was published in 1961. Scale 1:24,000. The source map was prepared by the Geological Survey from 1:24,000-scale maps of Hackensack, Paterson, Orange, and Weehawken 1955 7.5 minute quadrangles. The Orange quadrangle was previously compiled by the Army Map Service. Culture revised by the Geological Survey. Hydrography compiled from USC&GS charts 287 (1954), 745 (1956), and 746 (1956). The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Zone 18N NAD27 projection. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. USGS maps are typical topographic maps portraying both natural and manmade features. They show and name works of nature, such as mountains, valleys, lakes, rivers, vegetation, etc. They also identify the principal works of humans, such as roads, railroads, boundaries, transmission lines, major buildings, etc. Relief is shown with standard contour intervals of 10 and 20 feet; depths are shown with contours and soundings. Please pay close attention to map collar information on projections, spheroid, sources, dates, and keys to grid numbering and other numbers which appear inside the neatline. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

New York, N.Y. and vicinity, 1961 : Harlem, N.Y.-N.J. (8 Sheet Set) (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the United States Geological Survey 7.5 minute topographic sheet map entitled: New York and vicinity : Harlem, N.Y.-N.J., 1956. It is part of an 8 sheet map set covering the metropolitan New York City area. It was published in 1961. Scale 1:24,000. The source map was compiled from 1:24,000-scale maps of Mount Vernon 1956, Yonkers 1956, Central Park 1956, and Flushing 1955 7.5 minute quadrangles. Hydrography compiled from USC&GS charts 222 (1955), 223 (1954), 748 (1955), 226, 274, 745, 746, and 747 (1956). The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Zone 18N NAD27 projection. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. USGS maps are typical topographic maps portraying both natural and manmade features. They show and name works of nature, such as mountains, valleys, lakes, rivers, vegetation, etc. They also identify the principal works of humans, such as roads, railroads, boundaries, transmission lines, major buildings, etc. Relief is shown with standard contour intervals of 10 and 20 feet; depths are shown with contours and soundings. Please pay close attention to map collar information on projections, spheroid, sources, dates, and keys to grid numbering and other numbers which appear inside the neatline. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.