996 resultados para Testes de causalidade


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Bipolar disorder is characterized by mood impairment, alternating between mania/hypomania and depression, and its exact pathophysiology is already unknown. The treatment of bipolar disorder is based on prevention of the manic and depressive episodes using mood stabilizers. Nociceptin/orfanin FQ (N/OFQ) is an endogenous heptadecapeptide which binds as an agonist to NOP receptor, which is a G-coupled inhibitory receptor. N/OFQ and its receptor modulate a lot of functions in the organism, including emotional processes. It is known that the plasmatic concentration of N/OFQ is altered in patients in both phases depressive and manic of bipolar disorder and it is assumed that this system has a role on the etiology of this disorder. Concerning mania, the animal models used in research tend to focus in an unique aspect of the manic behavior, as hyperactivity or agressivity. In the 60’s, the hole board test was proposed, and it consists of an apparatus with holes where a behavior known as head-dippings is measured. High levels of head-dippings are suggestive of neophilia, while low levels can be characteristic of an anxious-like behavior. As the increase of exploratory and goal-directed behavior are characteristics of manic behavior, this test could help in mania research. Thus, this work was organized in 3 steps and aims to: (1) investigate the induction of a manic-like state promoted by ouabain, a Na+/K+-ATPase inhibitor, in the mouse open field test; (2) set up the hole board as a test to measure manic-like behaviors; and (3) investigate the N/OFQ effects in prevention of this kind of behavior on hole board. Male Swiss mice were used in this study, and they take part of only one of the described steps. Depending on the step performed, mice received one or more of the following treatments: (1) ouabain 10-6 , 10-5 , 10-4 , 10-3 or 10-2 M, intracerebroventricular (icv); (2) sodium valproate 300 mg/kg, intraperitoneal (ip); (3) sodium valproate 400 mg/kg, ip; (4) diazepam 1 mg/kg, ip; (5) methylphenidate 10 mg/kg, ip; and (6) N/OFQ 0,1 or 1 nmol, icv. The results suggest that hole board can be used to evaluate a manic state, through analysis of different animal behaviors. However, it was not possible to standard the model of Na+ /K+ -ATPase dysfunction through ouabain administration in mice. Moreover, the data suggest that N/OFQ, at the doses tested, has not affected the methylphenidate-induced mania-like behavior. Taken together, the results point to a new approach of manic research, through the hole board using. However, more studies are necessary in order to verify the role of N/OFQ system on bipolar disorder.

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The evaluation of seed vigor is an important factor for detection of lots of high quality seeds, so that development of procedures to evaluate the physiological potential has been an important tool in quality control programs seeds. In this sense the study aimed to adapt the methodologies of accelerated aging, electrical conductivity and potassium leaching to evaluate Moringa oleifera seed vigor LAM.. Therefore, four lots of moringa seeds were subjected to the germination tests, seedling emergence, speed of emergence index, emergence first count, length and dry mass of seedlings and cold test for their physiological characterization, in addition to accelerated aging, electrical conductivity and potassium leaching. The experimental design was completely randomized with four replications of 50 seeds and the means compared by Tukey test at 5% probability. For accelerated aging the periods were studied aging 12, 24 and 72 hours at 40, 42 and 45°C. For the electrical conductivity test was used to a temperature of 25°C for periods of 4, 8, 12, 16 and 24 hours of immersion in 75 to 125 mL of distilled water, using 25 to 50 seeds, and for potassium leaching test samples were used 25 to 50 seeds, placed in plastic cups containing 70 and 100 mL of distilled water at 25°C for periods of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 hours. From the results obtained, it can be inferred that the methods best fit for the accelerated aging test Moringa seeds were a temperature of 40°C for 12 to 72 hours, 42°C 72 hours 45°C 24 hours . In the electrical conductivity test Moringa seeds, the combination of 50 seeds in 75 mL distilled water for a period of immersion of 4 hours and 50 seeds in 125 mL of 4 hours were efficient for the differentiation of lots of Moringa seeds as to vigor and for potassium leaching test moringa seeds, the combination of 50 seeds in 100mL of distilled water allowed the separation of lots of four levels of vigor, at 2 hours of immersion, showing promise in evaluate the quality of moringa seeds.

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The evaluation of seed vigor is an important factor for detection of lots of high quality seeds, so that development of procedures to evaluate the physiological potential has been an important tool in quality control programs seeds. In this sense the study aimed to adapt the methodologies of accelerated aging, electrical conductivity and potassium leaching to evaluate Moringa oleifera seed vigor LAM.. Therefore, four lots of moringa seeds were subjected to the germination tests, seedling emergence, speed of emergence index, emergence first count, length and dry mass of seedlings and cold test for their physiological characterization, in addition to accelerated aging, electrical conductivity and potassium leaching. The experimental design was completely randomized with four replications of 50 seeds and the means compared by Tukey test at 5% probability. For accelerated aging the periods were studied aging 12, 24 and 72 hours at 40, 42 and 45°C. For the electrical conductivity test was used to a temperature of 25°C for periods of 4, 8, 12, 16 and 24 hours of immersion in 75 to 125 mL of distilled water, using 25 to 50 seeds, and for potassium leaching test samples were used 25 to 50 seeds, placed in plastic cups containing 70 and 100 mL of distilled water at 25°C for periods of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 hours. From the results obtained, it can be inferred that the methods best fit for the accelerated aging test Moringa seeds were a temperature of 40°C for 12 to 72 hours, 42°C 72 hours 45°C 24 hours . In the electrical conductivity test Moringa seeds, the combination of 50 seeds in 75 mL distilled water for a period of immersion of 4 hours and 50 seeds in 125 mL of 4 hours were efficient for the differentiation of lots of Moringa seeds as to vigor and for potassium leaching test moringa seeds, the combination of 50 seeds in 100mL of distilled water allowed the separation of lots of four levels of vigor, at 2 hours of immersion, showing promise in evaluate the quality of moringa seeds.

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The expansion of cultivated areas with genetically modified crops (GM) is a worldwide phenomenon, stimulating regulatory authorities to implement strict procedures to monitor and verify the presence of GM varieties in agricultural crops. With the constant growing of plant cultivating areas all over the world, consumption of aflatoxin-contaminated food also increased. Aflatoxins correspond to a class of highly toxic contaminants found in agricultural products that can have harmful effects on human and animal health. Therefore, the safety and quality evaluation of agricultural products are important issues for consumers. Lateral flow tests (strip tests) is a promising method for the detection both proteins expressed in GM crops and aflatoxins-contaminated food samples. The advantages of this technique include its simplicity, rapidity and cost-effective when compared to the conventional methods. In this study, two novel and sensitive strip tests assay were developed for the identification of: (i) Cry1Ac and Cry8Ka5 proteins expressed in GM cotton crops and; (ii) aflatoxins from agricultural products. The first strip test was developed using a sandwhich format, while the second one was developed using a competitive format. Gold colloidal nanoparticles were used as detector reagent when coated with monoclonal antibodies. An anti-species specific antibody was sprayed at the nitrocellulose membrane to be used as a control line. To validate the first strip test, GM (Bollgard I® e Planta 50- EMBRAPA) and non-GM cotton leaf (Cooker 312) were used. The results showed that the strip containing antibodies for the identification of Cry1Ac and Cry8Ka5 proteins was capable of correctly distinguishing between GM samples (positive result) and non-GM samples (negative result), in a high sensitivity manner. To validate the second strip test, artificially contaminated soybean with Aspergillus flavus (aflatoxin-producing fungus) was employed. Food samples, such as milk and soybean, were also evaluated for the presence of aflatoxins. The strip test was capable to distinguish between samples with and without aflatoxins samples, at a sensitivity concentration of 0,5 μg/Kg. Therefore, these results suggest that the strip tests developed in this study can be a potential tool as a rapid and cost-effective method for detection of insect resistant GM crops expressing Cry1Ac and Cry8Ka5 and aflatoxins from food samples.

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The expansion of cultivated areas with genetically modified crops (GM) is a worldwide phenomenon, stimulating regulatory authorities to implement strict procedures to monitor and verify the presence of GM varieties in agricultural crops. With the constant growing of plant cultivating areas all over the world, consumption of aflatoxin-contaminated food also increased. Aflatoxins correspond to a class of highly toxic contaminants found in agricultural products that can have harmful effects on human and animal health. Therefore, the safety and quality evaluation of agricultural products are important issues for consumers. Lateral flow tests (strip tests) is a promising method for the detection both proteins expressed in GM crops and aflatoxins-contaminated food samples. The advantages of this technique include its simplicity, rapidity and cost-effective when compared to the conventional methods. In this study, two novel and sensitive strip tests assay were developed for the identification of: (i) Cry1Ac and Cry8Ka5 proteins expressed in GM cotton crops and; (ii) aflatoxins from agricultural products. The first strip test was developed using a sandwhich format, while the second one was developed using a competitive format. Gold colloidal nanoparticles were used as detector reagent when coated with monoclonal antibodies. An anti-species specific antibody was sprayed at the nitrocellulose membrane to be used as a control line. To validate the first strip test, GM (Bollgard I® e Planta 50- EMBRAPA) and non-GM cotton leaf (Cooker 312) were used. The results showed that the strip containing antibodies for the identification of Cry1Ac and Cry8Ka5 proteins was capable of correctly distinguishing between GM samples (positive result) and non-GM samples (negative result), in a high sensitivity manner. To validate the second strip test, artificially contaminated soybean with Aspergillus flavus (aflatoxin-producing fungus) was employed. Food samples, such as milk and soybean, were also evaluated for the presence of aflatoxins. The strip test was capable to distinguish between samples with and without aflatoxins samples, at a sensitivity concentration of 0,5 μg/Kg. Therefore, these results suggest that the strip tests developed in this study can be a potential tool as a rapid and cost-effective method for detection of insect resistant GM crops expressing Cry1Ac and Cry8Ka5 and aflatoxins from food samples.

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A significant observational effort has been directed to investigate the nature of the so-called dark energy. In this dissertation we derive constraints on dark energy models using three different observable: measurements of the Hubble rate H(z) (compiled by Meng et al. in 2015.); distance modulus of 580 Supernovae Type Ia (Union catalog Compilation 2.1, 2011); and the observations of baryon acoustic oscilations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by using the so-called CMB/BAO of six peaks of BAO (a peak determined through the Survey 6dFGS data, two through the SDSS and three through WiggleZ). The statistical analysis used was the method of the χ2 minimum (marginalized or minimized over h whenever possible) to link the cosmological parameter: m, ω and δω0. These tests were applied in two parameterization of the parameter ω of the equation of state of dark energy, p = ωρ (here, p is the pressure and ρ is the component of energy density). In one, ω is considered constant and less than -1/3, known as XCDM model; in the other the parameter of state equantion varies with the redshift, where we the call model GS. This last model is based on arguments that arise from the theory of cosmological inflation. For comparison it was also made the analysis of model CDM. Comparison of cosmological models with different observations lead to different optimal settings. Thus, to classify the observational viability of different theoretical models we use two criteria information, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Akaike information criteria (AIC). The Fisher matrix tool was incorporated into our testing to provide us with the uncertainty of the parameters of each theoretical model. We found that the complementarity of tests is necessary inorder we do not have degenerate parametric spaces. Making the minimization process we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are m = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059. Performing a marginalization we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are M = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059.

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A significant observational effort has been directed to investigate the nature of the so-called dark energy. In this dissertation we derive constraints on dark energy models using three different observable: measurements of the Hubble rate H(z) (compiled by Meng et al. in 2015.); distance modulus of 580 Supernovae Type Ia (Union catalog Compilation 2.1, 2011); and the observations of baryon acoustic oscilations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by using the so-called CMB/BAO of six peaks of BAO (a peak determined through the Survey 6dFGS data, two through the SDSS and three through WiggleZ). The statistical analysis used was the method of the χ2 minimum (marginalized or minimized over h whenever possible) to link the cosmological parameter: m, ω and δω0. These tests were applied in two parameterization of the parameter ω of the equation of state of dark energy, p = ωρ (here, p is the pressure and ρ is the component of energy density). In one, ω is considered constant and less than -1/3, known as XCDM model; in the other the parameter of state equantion varies with the redshift, where we the call model GS. This last model is based on arguments that arise from the theory of cosmological inflation. For comparison it was also made the analysis of model CDM. Comparison of cosmological models with different observations lead to different optimal settings. Thus, to classify the observational viability of different theoretical models we use two criteria information, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Akaike information criteria (AIC). The Fisher matrix tool was incorporated into our testing to provide us with the uncertainty of the parameters of each theoretical model. We found that the complementarity of tests is necessary inorder we do not have degenerate parametric spaces. Making the minimization process we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are m = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059. Performing a marginalization we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are M = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059.

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Survival models deals with the modelling of time to event data. In certain situations, a share of the population can no longer be subjected to the event occurrence. In this context, the cure fraction models emerged. Among the models that incorporate a fraction of cured one of the most known is the promotion time model. In the present study we discuss hypothesis testing in the promotion time model with Weibull distribution for the failure times of susceptible individuals. Hypothesis testing in this model may be performed based on likelihood ratio, gradient, score or Wald statistics. The critical values are obtained from asymptotic approximations, which may result in size distortions in nite sample sizes. This study proposes bootstrap corrections to the aforementioned tests and Bartlett bootstrap to the likelihood ratio statistic in Weibull promotion time model. Using Monte Carlo simulations we compared the nite sample performances of the proposed corrections in contrast with the usual tests. The numerical evidence favors the proposed corrected tests. At the end of the work an empirical application is presented.

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Os classificadores múltiplos são processos que utilizam um conjunto de modelos, cada um deles obtido pela aplicação de um processo de aprendizagem para um problema dado. Combinam vários classificadores individuais, em que para cada um deles são utilizados dados de treino para gerar limites de decisão diferentes. As decisões produzidas pelos classificadores individuais contém erros, que são combinados pelos classificadores múltiplos de forma a reduzir o erro total. Estes têm vindo a ganhar uma crescente importância devido principalmente ao facto de permitirem obter um melhor desempenho quando comparado com o obtido por qualquer um dos modelos que o compõem, principalmente quando as correlações entre os erros cometidos pelos modelos de base são baixos. A investigação nesta área tem crescido, tornando-se uma área de investigação importante. No entanto, para que o desempenho seja melhor do que o desempenho obtido por cada classificador individualmente, é necessário que cada um deles produza uma decisão diferente originando uma diversidade de classificação. Esta diversidade pode ser obtida tanto pela utilização de diferentes conjuntos de dados para o treino individual de cada classificador, como também pela utilização de diferentes parâmetros de formação de diferentes classificadores. Apesar disso, a utilização de classificadores múltiplos para aplicações no mundo real pode apresentar-se como dispendiosa e morosa. Tem-se notado nos dias de hoje que o desenvolvimento web tem vindo a crescer exponencialmente, assim como o uso de bases de dados. Desta forma, combinando a forte utilização da linguagem R para cálculos estatísticos com a crescente utilização das tecnologias web, foi implementado um protótipo que facilitasse a utilização dos classificadores múltiplos, mais precisamente, foi desenvolvida uma aplicação web que permitisse o teste para aprendizagem com classificadores múltiplos, sendo utilizadas as tecnologias PHP, R e MySQL. Com esta aplicação pretende-se que seja possível testar algoritmos independentes do software em que estejam desenvolvidos, não sendo necessariamente escritos em R. Nesta Dissertação foi utilizada a expressão “classificadores múltiplos” por ser a mais comum, apesar de ser redutora e existirem outros termos mais genéricos como por exemplo modelos múltiplos e ensemble learning.

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The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

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This paper comprises an investigation on the influence of the variable family backgrounds (father school level, mother school level and family income) over the pupil s performance in admissions examination (entrance test or PROITEC) at Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Norte (IFRN). From that point of view, the main goal of this research is to analyze the influence of the family background as a determiner of the pupil´s performance in the access to Technical and Professional education at IFRN. Secondary data were used from two databases (entrance test and PROITEC) adding up to 19.226 observations to the vacancies offered in the year of 2013. Aiming at achieving the proposed goal, a conceptual model composed of three hypothesis was developed. The results were presented in four stages: stage I presentation of the descriptive statistical results of the two databases; stage II separation of the campi in clusters; stage III analysis of multiple regressions; stage IV analysis of the logistics regressions. Two statistical tests were used to validate the hypothesis: T-test and Wald test. Hypothesis 1 and 2 were confirmed and H3 was refused. The results presented favorable causal connections to the family income and the father school level variables (with bigger effect for fathers with a higher education degree). The mother school level variable did not provide statistical significance for this research. Based on this result, after this work, this institution is to develop a strategic plan to assist in the success rate of students preparing diagnoses in order to diminish the effects of the variables that impacted negatively