Composition of electricity generation portfolios, pivotal dynamics and market prices

We use a simulation model to study how the diversification of electricity generation portfoliosinfluences wholesale prices. We find that technological diversification generally leads to lower market prices but that the relationship is mediated by the supply to demand ratio. In each demand case there is a threshold where pivotal dynamics change. Pivotal dynamics pre- and post-threshold are the cause of non-linearities in the influence of diversification on market prices. The findings are robust to our choice of behavioural parameters and match close-form solutions where those are available.

Expertise and finance: Mergers motivated by technological change

This paper argues that a large technological innovation may lead to a merger wave by inducing entrepreneurs to seek funds from technologically knowledgeable firms -experts. When a large technological innovation occurs, the ability of non-experts (banks) to discriminate between good and bad quality projects is reduced. Experts can continue to charge a low rate of interest for financing because their expertise enables them to identify good quality projects and to avoid unprofitable investments. On the other hand, non-experts now charge a higher rate of interest in order to screen bad projects. More entrepreneurs, therefore, disclose their projects to experts to raise funds from them. Such experts are, however, able to copy the projects and disclosure to them invites the possibility of competition. Thus the entrepreneur and the expert may merge so as to achieve product market collusion. As well as rationalizing mergers, the model can also explain various forms of venture financing by experts such as corporate investors and business angels.

Technological change and the wealth of nations

We discuss a unified theory of directed technological change and technologyadoption that can shed light on the causes of persistent productivity differencesacross countries. In our model, new technologies are designed in advanced countries and diffuse endogenously to less developed countries. Our framework is richenough to highlight three broad reasons for productivity differences: inappropriatetechnologies, policy-induced barriers to technology adoption, and within-countrymisallocations across sectors due to policy distortions. We also discuss the effectsof two aspects of globalization, trade in goods and migration, on the wealth ofnations through their impact on the direction of technical progress. By doing so,we illustrate some of the equalizing and unequalizing forces of globalization.

European research funding and regional technological capabilities: Network composition analysis

We use network and correspondence analysis to describe the compositionof the research networks in the European BRITE--EURAM program. Our mainfinding is that 27\% of the participants in this program fall into one oftwo sets of highly ``interconnected'' institutions --one centered aroundlarge firms (with smaller firms and research centers providing specializedservices), and the other around universities--. Moreover, these ``hubs''are composed largely of institutions coming from the technologically mostadvanced regions of Europe. This is suggestive of the difficulties of attainingEuropean ``cohesion'', as technically advanced institutions naturally linkwith partners of similar technological capabilities.

GPS analysis of human locomotion: further evidence for long-range correlations in stride-to-stride fluctuations of gait parameters.

During free walking, gait is automatically adjusted to provide optimal mechanical output and minimal energy expenditure; gait parameters, such as cadence, fluctuate from one stride to the next around average values. It was described that this fluctuation exhibited long-range correlations and fractal-like patterns. In addition, it was suggested that these long-range correlations disappeared if the participant followed the beep of metronome to regulate his or her pace. Until now, these fractal fluctuations were only observed for stride interval, because no technique existed to adequately analyze an extended time of free walking. The aim of the present study was to measure walking speed (WS), step frequency (SF) and step length (SL) with high accuracy (<1 cm) satellite positioning method (global positioning system or GPS) in order to detect long-range correlations in the stride-to-stride fluctuations. Eight participants walked 30 min under free and constrained (metronome) conditions. Under free walking conditions, DFA (detrended fluctuation analysis) and surrogate data tests showed that the fluctuation of WS, SL and SF exhibited a fractal pattern (i.e., scaling exponent alpha: 0.5 < alpha < 1) in a large majority of participants (7/8). Under constrained conditions (metronome), SF fluctuations became significantly anti-correlated (alpha < 0.5) in all participants. However, the scaling exponent of SL and WS was not modified. We conclude that, when the walking pace is controlled by an auditory signal, the feedback loop between the planned movement (at supraspinal level) and the sensory inputs induces a continual shifting of SF around the mean (persistent anti-correlation), but with no effect on the fluctuation dynamics of the other parameters (SL, WS).

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Biotic potential and reproductive parameters of Spodoptera eridania (Stoll) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) in the laboratory

Biotic potential and reprodutcive parameters of Spodoptera eridania (Stoll) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) in the laboratory: This study aimed to evaluate the biotic potential and reproductive parameters of Spodoptera eridania (Stoll, 1782) under controlled conditions (25 ± 1ºC, 70 ± 10% RH and 14 hour photophase). The longevity, pre-, post- and oviposition periods, fecundity and fertility of 15 couples was evaluated. The longevity of females (10.80 days) was not significantly higher than those of males (9.27 days). The mean durations of the pre, post and oviposition periods were 2.067, 0.600 and 8.133 days, respectively. The mean fecundity per female was 1,398 eggs and the mean fertility was 1,367.50 larvae. On average, females copulated 1.133 times. A strong positive correlation was observed between the number of mating and fecundity (r = 0.881, P <0.001). However a strong negative correlation was observed between the number of copulations and the duration of the pre-oviposition period (r = -0.826, P = 0.002) and longevity (r = -0.823, P = 0.001). The biotic potential of S. eridania was estimated at 1.894 x 10(25) individuals/female/year. The net reproductive rate (Ro) was 560.531 times per generation and the mean generation time (T) was 35.807 days. The intrinsic rate of increase (rm) was 0.177, with a finite rate of increase (l) of 1.193, per week

Definition of tolerable soil erosion values

Although the criteria for defining erosion tolerance are well established, the limits generally used are not consistent with natural, economical and technological conditions. Rates greater than soil formation can be accepted only until a minimum of soil depth is reached, provided that they are not associated with environmental hazard or productivity losses. A sequence of equations is presented to calculate erosion tolerance rates through time. The selection of equation parameters permits the definition of erosion tolerance rates in agreement with environmental, social and technical needs. The soil depth change that is related to irreversible soil degradation can be calculated. The definition of soil erosion tolerance according to these equations can be used as a guideline for sustainable land use planning and is compatible with expert systems.

How useful is satellite positioning system (GPS) to track gait parameters? A review.

Over the last century, numerous techniques have been developed to analyze the movement of humans while walking and running. The combined use of kinematics and kinetics methods, mainly based on high speed video analysis and forceplate, have permitted a comprehensive description of locomotion process in terms of energetics and biomechanics. While the different phases of a single gait cycle are well understood, there is an increasing interest to know how the neuro-motor system controls gait form stride to stride. Indeed, it was observed that neurodegenerative diseases and aging could impact gait stability and gait parameters steadiness. From both clinical and fundamental research perspectives, there is therefore a need to develop techniques to accurately track gait parameters stride-by-stride over a long period with minimal constraints to patients. In this context, high accuracy satellite positioning can provide an alternative tool to monitor outdoor walking. Indeed, the high-end GPS receivers provide centimeter accuracy positioning with 5-20 Hz sampling rate: this allows the stride-by-stride assessment of a number of basic gait parameters--such as walking speed, step length and step frequency--that can be tracked over several thousand consecutive strides in free-living conditions. Furthermore, long-range correlations and fractal-like pattern was observed in those time series. As compared to other classical methods, GPS seems a promising technology in the field of gait variability analysis. However, relative high complexity and expensiveness--combined with a usability which requires further improvement--remain obstacles to the full development of the GPS technology in human applications.

Sedation and analgesia for colonoscopy: patient tolerance, pain, and cardiorespiratory parameters.

BACKGROUND: Colonoscopy is generally performed with the patient sedated and receiving analgesics. However, the benefit of the most often used combination of intravenous midazolam and pethidine on patient tolerance and pain and its cardiorespiratory risk have not been fully defined. METHODS: In this double-blind prospective study, 150 outpatients undergoing routine colonoscopy were randomly assigned to receive either (1) low-dose midazolam (35 micrograms/kg) and pethidine (700 micrograms/kg in 48 patients, 500 micrograms/kg in 102 patients), (2) midazolam and placebo pethidine, or (3) pethidine and placebo midazolam. RESULTS: Tolerance (visual analog scale, 0 to 100 points: 0 = excellent; 100 = unbearable) did not improve significantly more in group 1 compared with group 2 (7 points; 95% confidence interval [-2-17]) and group 3 (2 points; 95% confidence interval [-7-12]). Similarly, pain was not significantly improved in group 1 as compared with the other groups. Male gender (p < 0.001) and shorter duration of the procedure (p = 0.004), but not amnesia, were associated with better patient tolerance and less pain. Patient satisfaction was similar in all groups. Oxygen desaturation and hypotension occurred in 33% and 11%, respectively, with a similar frequency in all three groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the combination of low-dose midazolam and pethidine does not improve patient tolerance and lessen pain during colonoscopy as compared with either drug given alone. When applying low-dose midazolam, oxygen desaturation and hypotension do not occur more often after combined use of both drugs. For the individual patient, sedation and analgesia should be based on the endoscopist's clinical judgement.

Eficiència energètica aplicada a les instal·lacions de la Universitat de Vic

En termes generals, es pot definir l’Eficiència Energètica com la reducció del consum d’energia mantenint els mateixos serveis energètics, sense disminuir el nostre confort i qualitat de vida, protegint el medi ambient, assegurant el proveïment i fomentant un comportament Sostenible al seu ús. L’objectiu principal d’aquest treball, és reduir el consum d’energia i terme de potència contractat a la Universitat de Vic, aplicant un programa d’estalvi amb mesures correctores en el funcionament de les seves instal·lacions o espais. Per tal de poder arribar a aquest objectiu marcat, prèviament s’ha realitzat un estudi acurat, obtenint tota la informació necessària per poder aplicar les mesures correctores a la bossa més important de consum. Un cop trobada, dur a terme l’estudi de la viabilitat de la inversió de les mesures correctores més eficients, optimitzant els recursos destinats. L’espai on s’ha dut a terme l’estudi, ha estat a l’edifici F del Campus Miramarges, seguint les indicacions d’Arnau Bardolet (Cap de Manteniment de la UVIC). Aquest edifici consta d’un entresol, baixos i quatre plantes. L’equip de mesura que s’ha fet servir per realitzar l’estudi, és de la marca Circutor sèrie AR5-L, aquests equips són programables que mesuren, calculen i emmagatzemen en memòria els principals paràmetres elèctrics en xarxes trifàsiques. Els projectes futurs complementaris que es podrien realitzar a part d’aquest són: instal·lar sensors, instal·lar mòduls convertidors TCP/IP, aprofitar la xarxa intranet i crear un escada amb un sinòptic de control i gestió des d’un punt de treball. Aquest aplicatiu permet visualitzar en una pantalla d’un PC tots els estats dels elements controlats mitjançant un sinòptic (encendre/parar manualment l’enllumenat i endolls de les aules, estat d’enllumenat i endolls de les aules, consums instantanis/acumulats energètics, estat dels passadissos entre altres) i explotar les dades recollides a la base de dades. Cada espai tindria la seva lògica de funcionament automàtic específic. Entre les conclusions més rellevants obtingudes en aquest treball s’observa: · Que és pot reduir la potència contractada a la factura a l’estar per sota de la realment consumida. · Que no hi ha penalitzacions a la factura per consum de reactiva, ja que el compensador funciona correctament. · Que es pot reduir l’horari de l’inici del consum d’energia, ja que no correspon a l’activitat docent. · Els valors de la tensió i freqüència estan dintre de la normalitat. · Els harmònics estan al llindar màxim. Analitzant aquestes conclusions, voldria destacar les mesures correctores més importants que es poden dur a terme: canvi tecnològic a LED, temporitzar automàticament l’encesa i apagada dels fluorescents i equips informàtics de les aules “seguint calendari docent”, instal·lar sensors de moviment amb detecció lumínica als passadissos. Totes les conclusions extretes d’aquest treball, es poden aplicar a tots els edificis de la facultat, prèviament realitzant l’estudi individual de cadascuna, seguint els mateixos criteris per tal d’optimitzar la inversió.