Determinantes macroeconômicos da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros na América Latina

O trabalho relaciona, com um modelo de três fatores proposto por Huse (2007), variáveis macroeconômicas e financeiras observáveis com a estrutura a termo da taxa de juros (ETTJ) dos países da América Latina (Brasil, Chile, Colômbia e México). Consideramos os seguintes determinantes macroeconômicos: taxa de inflação, taxa de variação do nível de atividade, variação da taxa de câmbio, nível do credit default swaps (CDS), nível da taxa de desemprego, nível da taxa de juros nominal e fatores globais (inclinação da curva de juros norte-americana e variação de índices de commodities). Os modelos explicam mais do que 75% nos casos do Brasil, Chile e Colômbia e de 68% no caso do México. Variações positivas no nível de atividade e inflação são acompanhadas, em todos os países, de um aumento na ETTJ. Aumentos do CDS, com exceção do Chile, acarretam em aumento das taxas longas. Já crescimentos na taxa de desemprego têm efeitos distintos nos países. Ao mesmo tempo, depreciações cambiais não são acompanhadas de subida de juros, o que pode ser explicado pelos bancos centrais considerarem que depreciações de câmbio tem efeitos transitórios na inflação. No México, aumentos na ETTJ são diretamente relacionados com o índice de commodities de energia e metálicas. Já no caso brasileiro, em que os preços da gasolina são regulados e não impactam a inflação, esse canal não é relevante. Variações positivas na inclinação da curva norte-americana têm efeitos similares nas curvas da América Latina, reduzindo as taxas curtas e aumentando as taxas longas.

Fundos de investimento em direitos creditórios: determinantes da taxa de captação dos FIDCs

O mercado de securitização através de Fundos de Investimento em Direitos Creditórios (FIDCs) no Brasil ainda não é tão desenvolvido quando comparado aos mercados internacionais. O desenvolvimento desse mercado facultaria a bancos e empresas acesso a fontes de financiamento além da sua geração de caixa ou da emissão de novas ações. Bancos e empresas devem manter a busca por formas alternativas de financiamento, obtendo, assim, diversificação de suas fontes de recursos. O objetivo desse trabalho é avaliar como as características dos FIDCs afetam a taxa de captação de suas cotas sênior. Para isso foram avaliadas 151 séries de cotas, emitidas entre 2002 e 2014. Na análise foram usadas análises multivariadas através da regressão linear múltipla, usando o método de Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO), para avaliar o efeito das variáveis sobre o spread das cotas. Os resultados apontaram que o volume de emissão afeta a forma como outras variáveis afetam o spread. Os fundos com tamanho de oferta maior têm seu spread influenciado por características de seus cedentes e por características de sua estruturação, enquanto que fundos menores são apreçados por negociações entre emissor e investidores.

Essays on health care reform, wealth inequality, and demography

This thesis contains three chapters. The first chapter uses a general equilibrium framework to simulate and compare the long run effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) and of health care costs reduction policies on macroeconomic variables, government budget, and welfare of individuals. We found that all policies were able to reduce uninsured population, with the PPACA being more effective than cost reductions. The PPACA increased public deficit mainly due to the Medicaid expansion, forcing tax hikes. On the other hand, cost reductions alleviated the fiscal burden of public insurance, reducing public deficit and taxes. Regarding welfare effects, the PPACA as a whole and cost reductions are welfare improving. High welfare gains would be achieved if the U.S. medical costs followed the same trend of OECD countries. Besides, feasible cost reductions are more welfare improving than most of the PPACA components, proving to be a good alternative. The second chapter documents that life cycle general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents have a very hard time reproducing the American wealth distribution. A common assumption made in this literature is that all young adults enter the economy with no initial assets. In this chapter, we relax this assumption – not supported by the data – and evaluate the ability of an otherwise standard life cycle model to account for the U.S. wealth inequality. The new feature of the model is that agents enter the economy with assets drawn from an initial distribution of assets. We found that heterogeneity with respect to initial wealth is key for this class of models to replicate the data. According to our results, American inequality can be explained almost entirely by the fact that some individuals are lucky enough to be born into wealth, while others are born with few or no assets. The third chapter documents that a common assumption adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models is that the population is stable at steady state, that is, its relative age distribution becomes constant over time. An open question is whether the demographic assumptions commonly adopted in these models in fact imply that the population becomes stable. In this chapter we prove the existence of a stable population in a demographic environment where both the age-specific mortality rates and the population growth rate are constant over time, the setup commonly adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models. Hence, the stability of the population do not need to be taken as assumption in these models.

Chronic disease burden and human capital investment: evidence from the chagas disease campaign in Brazil

We investigate the effects of augmented life expectancy and health improvements on human capital investment, labor supply and fertility decisions. Our main motivation is the prediction of human capital theory that a longer and healthier life encourages educational investment and female labor force participation, while discouraging fertility. To assess the magnitude of these effects, we explore a national campaign against Chagas disease in Brazil as an exogenous source of adult mortality decline and improvement in health conditions. We show that, relative to non-endemic areas, previously endemic regions saw higher increases in educational investment, measured by literacy, school attendance and years of schooling, following the campaign. Additionally, we find that labor force participation increased in high prevalence areas relative to low prevalence ones. Furthermore, we estimate a substantially higher effect on female labor force participation relative to male, suggesting that longevity gains and health improvements affected women's incentives to work, encouraging women to join the labor force. We do not find significant effects on fertility decisions.

As crises de mortalidade no concelho de Évora na segunda metade do século XIX

Orientadora: Teresa Ferreira Rodrigues

Mortalidade por câncer de boca e condição sócio-econômica no Brasil

BORGES,D. M. L.et al. Mortalidade por câncer de boca e condição sócio-econômica no Brasil.Cad. Saúde Pública, Rio de Janeiro, v.25,n.2, p.321-327, fev, 2009

Estudo sobre a mortalidade e sobrevivência de micro e pequenas empresas natalenses e seus impactos nas políticas públicas pró-empreendedorismo

The principal purpose of this research was to investigate discriminant factors of survival and failure of micro and small businesses, and the impacts of these factors in the public politics for entrepreneurship in the State of Rio Grande do Norte. The data were ceded by SEBRAE/RN and the Commercial Committee of the Rio Grande do Norte State and it included the businesses that were registered in 2000, 2001 and 2002. According to the theoretical framework 3 groups of factors were defined Business Financial Structure, Entrepreneurial Preparation and Entrepreneurial Behavior , and the factors were studied in order to determine whether they are discriminant or not of the survival and business failure. A quantitative research was applied and advanced statistical techniques were used multivariate data analysis , beginning with the factorial analysis and after using the discriminant analysis. As a result, canonical discriminant functions were found and they partially explained the survival and business failure in terms of the factors and groups of factors. The analysis also permitted the evaluation of the public politics for entrepreneurship and it was verified, according to the view of the entrepreneurs, that these politics were weakly effective to avoid business failure. Some changes in the referred politics were suggested based on the most significant factors found.

Sobre (vivência) e mortalidade de pequenos negócios: o caso de mercados varejistas potiguares

This paper‟s starting point was the objective of understanding the relation between the reasons pointed out by small businesses owners for the continuity or shutdown of their businesses, and the reasons presented by the Environmental Theories. The paper discusses the Environmental Theories understand that it is supported by a systemic metaphor speech, discussing the theme in terms of organizational survival and mortality . The text reviews the literature showing the changes in the administrative thinking regarding the organization versus environment relation, and presenting general ideas about the micro and small businesses. In methodological terms, the qualitative approach was used in the research. Regarding the data collection technique, an in-depth thematic interview was used. It was carried out considering the elements of the techniques of life history and oral history, always giving priority to real world related narratives told by the interviewed subjects. The empirical corpus of the research was made up of seven owners of small retail businesses in two Potiguar cities: Natal and Mossoró. The interpretative and analytical process focused, at first, on the reflexive dialogue with each one of the owners‟ professional life history and business management experience, constituting the first level of analysis: reflections on individual narratives; and, afterwards, the interpretative process was developed through the analysis of all the subjects‟ statements, identifying the recurring themes and constituting the second level of analysis: reflection on the totalizing narrative. The themes identified in the totalizing narrative, that refer to the continuity of the businesses are: evolution, control, fidelity, liking what one does for a living. The themes that came up as reasons for shutdown are: lack of empathy with the business, lack of evolution, competition problems, suppliers and the government. The text synthesizes its comprehensions affirming that the reasons associated with continuity and shutdown of small markets, for this group of owners specifically, come up as a permanent tension between the volunteerism (quite human) and the determinism (systemic). The tension is shown in testimonies that at the same time evoke the organicist systemic logic through the themes evolution/no evolution, and also counterpoints with themes related to the interested human action, based on desires, feelings and personal convictions such as: liking what one does/ lack of empathy. As for the reflexive dialogue between the postulates of the Environmental Theories and the narratives, the results make it possible to affirm that, differently from the tension expressed by the subjects while talking about their reasons, the reasons associated with survival and mortality of businesses according to the Environmental Theories are theoretically polarized, seeming to preach options that are stagnated and shaping towards the subjects involved in the organization-environment relation

Influência de fatores biopsicossociais sobre a mortalidade de idosos no município de Santa Cruz/RN: um estudo prospectivo

The aging process if characterizes for a complex events network, from multidimensional nature, that encloses biological, social, psychic and functional aspects. The alteration of one or more aspects can speed up the aging process, anticipating limitations and until the death in the aged. For an adjusted confrontation of this question is necessary an interdisciplinary vision, in which the some areas of the knowledge can interact and with this to intervenes of the best possible form. Then, information derived from studies of aspects related to incidence, morbidity-mortality and transition patterns, involved in the health-illness process can more accurately identify risk groups thereby establishing links between social factors, illness, incapacity and death. Thus, this study aimed to identify, by a multidimensional vision, the risk factors of mortality in a coorth of elderly in a city in the interior of the state of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil. A prospective study carried out in Santa Cruz RN, where 310 elderly were randomly selected to form a baseline. The follow-up was 53 months. The predictive variables were divided into sociodemographic, physical health, neuropsychiatric and functional capacity. The statistical analysis carried out by bivariate analysis, survival analysis, followed by binary logistic regression and Cox regression, in the multivariate analysis, considering significant levels p < 0.05 and confidence interval (CI) of 95%. A total of 60 (19.3%) elderly died during the follow-up, where cardiovascular disease was the main cause. The survival was approximately 24.8 months. The study of general survival showed, at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months of observation, a survival rate of 97%, 54%, 31%, and 5% respectively, with a statistical difference in survival only observed for the variables of cognitive function and Basic Activities of Daily Living. In the logistic regression analysis, the risk factors identified were cognitive deficits (OR = 8.74), poor perception of health (OR = 3.89) and dependence for Basic Activities of Daily Living (OR = 3.96). In the Cox analysis, as well as dependence for Basic Activities of Daily Living (HR = 3.17), cognitive deficit (HR = 4.30) and stroke (CVA) (HR = 3.49) continued as independent risk factors for death. The risk factors found in the study can be interpreted as the primary predictors for death among elderly members of the community. Therefore, improvements in health conditions, with actions towards sustaining an autonomous life with special attention for elderly with cognitive impairment, could mean additional healthy quality of life, resulting in the reduction of premature mortality in this population

Redução da morbi-mortalidade na síndrome de hellp completa com o uso de altas doses de dexametasona

Objective: To determine the clinical maternal and neonatal outcomes in HELLP syndrome patients treated with dexamethasone who either developed renal injury or renal insufficiency and to identify predictive values of urea and creatinine for the identification of subjects with HELLP syndrome at risk of developing renal insufficiency. Methods: Non-radomized intervention study of dexamethasone use in HELLP syndrome. A total of 62 patients were enrolled at Maternidade Escola Januário Cicco (MEJC). Patients received a total of 30 mg of dexamethasone IV, in three doses of 10 mg every 12 hours. A clinical and laboratory follow up were performed at 24, 48 and 72 hours. Patients were followed up to 6 months after delivery. Patients were grouped in accordance to renal function, i.e, normal and some type of renal lesion. Renal lesion was considered when creatinine was equal or greater than 1.3 mg/dl and diuresis less than 100 ml in 4 hours period and renal insufficiency was defined when dialysis was needed. Results: A total of 1230 patients with preeclampsia were admitted at MEJC. Of those 62 (5%) developed HELLP syndrome. There was no statistical difference in the groups with renal involvement or normal renal function with respect to the demographics, type of anesthesia used and delivery, and weight of the newborn. An improvement in the AST, ALT, LDH, haptoglobine, antithrombine, fibrinogenen and platelets was observed within 72 hours after dexamethosone use. There was a significant increase in the diuresis within the interval of 6 hours before the delivery and 24 hours after it. Of the 62 patients, 46 (74. 2%) had normal renal function and 16 (25.8%) evolved with renal lesion, with 5 (8.1%) needing dialysis. These 5 patients who received dialysis recovered the xi renal function. The delay in administering dexamethasone increased in 4.6% the risk of development of renal insufficiency. Patients with renal insufficiency had received significantly more blood products than subjects without renal lesion (p=0.03). Diuresis, leukocytes, uric acid, urea, creatinine were significantly different between the groups with normal renal function, renal lesion and renal insufficiency. The levels of creatinine 1.2mg/dl and uric acid 51mg/dl, at admission are predictive of subjects who will evolve with renal lesion (p<0.001). Maternal mortality was 3.2%. None of the subjects with renal insufficiency evolved with chronic renal disease. Conclusions: Dexamethasone in patients with HELLP syndrome seems to reduce significantly the hepatic microthrombosis and normalize hemostasis as seen by improvement of liver function. Renal injury can be considered, in HELLP syndrome, when creatinine levels are greater than 1.3 mg/dl and diuresis less than 100 ml/h in interval of 4 hours. The level of creatinine greater than 1.2 mg/dl and urea greater than 51mg/dl are predictive of subjects with HELLP syndrome who will develop renal injury. Patients who receive more red cell packs develop renal insufficiency. Finally, the delay in administering dexamethasone increases the risk of developing renal insufficiency

Mortalidade materna no estado da Paraíba, 2000 a 2004

Esta tese articulou as áreas do conhecimento da Epidemiologia, Saúde Pública, Demografia e Estatística. Para esta investigação, traçaram-se duas estratégias: por um lado, buscou-se relatar a trajetória dos direitos femininos em saúde no Brasil a partir do período pós-guerra até os dias atuais; por outro lado, objetivou-se analisar diferenciais da morte materna e suas associações com variáveis sociodemográficas das mulheres residentes no estado da Paraíba no período de 2000 a 2004. As explorações decorrentes destes objetivos resultaram na produção de três abordagens. Na primeira, procedeu-se a um olhar retrospectivo sobre as políticas de saúde da mulher no país e seus desdobramentos regionais, enfocando a saúde materna. A análise permitiu reconhecer que, apesar de todas as conquistas adquiridas pelas mulheres desde os anos 80, a população feminina brasileira, em particular a paraibana, ainda carece de melhorias nas condições de saúde, sendo esta situação retratada pelo elevado número de mortes maternas ocorridas nos últimos anos. Também se buscou retratar os esforços dos sistemas oficiais na luta pela melhoria da qualidade dos dados reconhecida, na agenda nacional, como sendo ainda uma grande preocupação atual. Na segunda, o objetivo foi identificar o poder associativo entre a raça das mulheres residentes no estado da Paraíba e algumas variáveis sociodemográficas. Os resultados mostraram que houve indícios significativos de que as mulheres não brancas da Paraíba tiveram maiores chances de morrer que as brancas com baixa escolaridade e por morte obstétrica direta. Na terceira, centrou-se no tipo de óbito materno, cujo objetivo consistiu em analisar associações entre o tipo de óbito materno das mulheres paraibanas e as variáveis: grupo etário, escolaridade e raça, no período de 2000 a 2004. Os testes estatísticos realizados apontaram que a mulher paraibana teve cinco vezes mais chances de morrer por morte obstétrica direta ou indireta na faixa etária abaixo dos 20 anos e acima dos 34 em relação a faixa etária entre 20-34 anos

Mortalidade da população em idade ativa (PIA) por doença cardiovascular e câncer nas capitais e nas regiões metropolitanas brasileiras: associação com indicadores socioeconômicos

Universidade Estadual do Rio Grande do Norte