Partitioning the Choice Task Makes Starbucks Coffee Taste Better

Consumers are often less satisfied with a product chosen from a large assortment than a limited one. Experienced choice difficulty presumably causes this as consumers have to engage in a great number of individual comparisons. In two studies we tested whether partitioning the choice task so that consumers decided sequentially on each individual attribute may provide a solution. In a Starbucks coffee house, consumers who chose from the menu rated the coffee as less tasty when chosen from a large rather than a small assortment. However, when the consumers chose it by sequentially deciding about one attribute at a time, the effect reversed. In a tailored-suit customization, consumers who chose multiple attributes at a time were less satisfied with their suit, compared to those who chose one attribute at a time. Sequential attribute-based processing proves to be an effective strategy to reap the benefits of a large assortment.

A case-control study of tea/coffee consumption and lung cancer risk

Background. Despite the increasing attention to the effects of dietary factors on lung cancer risk, epidemiological research on the role of black/green tea and coffee intake and lung cancer risk is scarce. The purpose of this study was to explore the following three hypotheses: (1) the preventive (protective) effect from lung cancer is higher in green tea than in black tea and coffee consumption. (2) brewed tea (either black or green) daily drinkers have lower odds of lung cancer than non-drinkers of brewed tea (3) regular black and green tea have more preventive effect against lung cancer than decaffeinated teas due to the synergistic effect of caffeine and other tea components. ^ Methods. Data on 1,088 lung cancer cases and 1,127 controls from an ongoing epidemiological study of lung cancer by the Department of Epidemiology of the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer were analyzed. Multiple logistic regressions were performed for testing associations between frequency of specific types of tea/coffee consumption and the risk of lung cancer. ^ Results. We observed that more than a cup a week of green tea and decaffeinated black tea were significantly associated with reduced odds of lung cancer by 64% for green tea (adjusted OR = 0.44; 95% CI = 0.31–0.64), 36% for decaffeinated black tea (OR = 0.64; 95% CI = 0.45–0.90), when compared with non-drinkers and those who drank less than a cup a week. On the other hand, increasing intake of regular coffee (more than 3 cups a day) was associated with a 30% higher odds ratio of lung cancer (OR = 1.30; 95% CI = 1.01–1.09). No association was found between regular black tea, decaffeinated coffee consumption and the odds ratio of lung cancer. However, when drinkers of other tea/coffee beverages were excluded from each model in order to explore the independent effect of each type of tea/coffee, green tea and decaffeinated black tea-lung cancer associations remained but no association was observed for drinkers of regular coffee. ^ Conclusion. We report the chemopreventive effects of more than a cup a week of green tea and decaffeinated black tea on lung cancer. ^

THE EFFECT OF CAFFEINE CONSUMPTION ON MORTALITY IN HYPERTENSIVE INDIVIDUALS

The effect of caffeine consumption on mortality was evaluated in a historical cohort study of 10064 hypertensive individuals participating in the Hypertension Detection and Follow-Up Program (HDFP) from 1973 to 1979. The study cohort was stratified into caffeine consumption groups (none, low, medium and high) based on their total level of caffeine intake from beverages (coffee and tea) and certain medications at the One-year follow-up home visit. Stratification was also made by sex, race, type of care and age. The total relative risks (RRs) when computed across strata for each caffeine consumer group (low, medium and high) were not significantly different when compared to the noncaffeine consumer group for all-cause or cause-specific mortality rates. The point estimates and 95 per cent confidence intervals for relative risks of all-cause mortality when compared to nonconsumers were as follows: Low = 0.82 (0.65-1.03), Medium: = 0.82 (0.62-1.82) and High = 0.90 (0.63-1.28). For all sex, race combinations there was an increase in the per cent of current smokers within each caffeine consumer group as the level of caffeine consumption increased. Cigarette smoking was an important confounder correlated with caffeine consumption and associated with mortality in this cohort. When confounding by cigarette smoking was adjusted for in the analysis, no association was found between the level of caffeine consumption and all-cause or cause-specific mortality. ^

Non-tariff barriers, integration and the transatlantic economy

We examine the potential impact of TTIP through trade-cost reductions, applying a mix of econometric and computational methods to develop estimates of the benefits (and costs) for the EU, United States, and third countries. Econometric results point to an approximate 80% growth in bilateral trade with an ambitious trade agreement. However, at the same time, computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates highlight distributional impacts across countries and factors not evident from econometrics alone. Translated through our CGE framework, while bilateral trade increases roughly 80%, there is a fall of about 2.5% in trade with the rest of the world in our central case. The estimated gains in annual consumption range between 1% and 2.25% for the United States and EU, respectively. A purely discriminatory agreement would harm most countries outside the agreement, while the direction of third-country effects hinges critically on whether NTB reductions end up being discriminatory or not. Within the United States and EU, while labour gains across skill categories, the impact on farmers is mixed.

NEW ROLE OF COOPERATIVES IN ETHIOPIA: THE CASE OF ETHIOPIAN COFFEE FARMERS COOPERATIVES

Since 1991, policies of economic liberalization in Ethiopia have been effective in releasing the economy from rigid state control. At the same time, they have also exposed Ethiopian people to domestic and international free market competition. In African countries, the retreat of governments from rural development due to economic liberalization policies has led to the re-evaluation of the role of cooperatives. Since 1999, in Ethiopia, several coffee farmers cooperative unions have been established to support peasants who are handicapped by their lack of negotiating power in the global economy. Coffee cooperatives have become market-oriented and are now relatively democratic compared to the former Marxist cooperatives of the previous regime. Thus far, these coffee cooperatives have provided higher profits to coffee farmers than have private traders. The actual volume of purchase, however, is limited　due to financial constraints. Because of this, the majority of cooperatives continues to rely on conventional marketing channels rather than on unions. Considering their weak financial condition, it is too early to judge the sustainability of the cooperatives because international prices have been high recently, and it is not yet clear how they would survive a downward international price trend.

Bilateral tariff rates in international trade : finished goods versus intermediate goods

In this paper, we examined back-and-forth international transactions through tariff reduction by estimating modified gravity equations for finished goods and intermediate goods separately. Our main findings are as follows. Exports of finished machinery products are negatively associated with not only the importer's tariff rates on finished machinery products but also the exporter's tariff rates on machinery parts. Similarly, exports of machinery parts are negatively associated with not only the importer's tariff rates on machinery parts but also the exporter's tariff rates on finished machinery products. These results imply that tariff reduction in only one production process in an industry has the potential to drastically change the magnitude of trade in the whole industry.

Impact of diagonal cumulation rule on FTA utilization : evidence from bilateral and multilateral FTAs between Japan and Thailand

In this paper, we empirically investigate the effect of diagonal cumulation on free trade agreement (FTA) utilization by exploring Thai exports to Japan under two kinds of FTA schemes. While the one scheme adopts bilateral cumulation, the other scheme does diagonal cumulation. Comparing trade under these two kinds of FTAs, we can examine the effect of diagonal cumulation without relying on not only the variation in cumulation rules across country pairs but also the variation across years. In short, our estimates do not suffer from biases from time-variant elements and country pair-specific elements. As a result, our estimates show around 4% trade creation effect of diagonal cumulation, which is much smaller than the estimates in the previous studies (around 15%).

Impact of product-related environmental regulations / voluntary requirements on Thai firms

The rules governing the trade of goods in global markets have shifted toward non-tariff measures related to environmental and chemical safety. Unlike traditional environmental/safety requirements, the scope of modern regulations covers products’ environmental performance and chemical safety. To comply with these modern regulations, production practices along the entire supply chain must be realigned to manage certain chemical substances incorporated into the final product. This paper examines the implications of product-related environmental and chemical safety regulations on different firms operating in Thailand.

Impacts of common rules of origin on FTA utilization

This paper examines empirically the impacts of sharing rules of origin (RoOs) with other ASEAN+1 free trade agreements (FTAs) on ASEAN-Korea FTA/ASEAN-China FTA utilization in Thai exports in 2011. Our careful empirical analysis suggests that the harmonization of RoOs across FTAs play some role in reducing the costs yielded through the spaghetti bowl phenomenon. In particular, the harmonization to "change-in-tariff classification (CTC) or real value-added content (RVC)" will play a relatively positive role in not seriously discouraging firms’ use of multiple FTA schemes. On the other hand, the harmonization to CTC or CTC&RVC hinders firms from using those schemes.

How do free trade agreements reduce tariff rates and non-tariff barriers?

This paper empirically investigates how far free trade agreements (FTAs) successfully lower tariff rates and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) for manufacturing industries by employing the bilateral tariff and NTB data in a time series for countries around the world. We find that FTAs under GATT Article XXIV and the Enabling Clause contribute to reducing tariff rates by 2.1% points and 1.5% points, respectively. In the case of NTBs, their respective impacts are 6.6% points and 5.7% points. Membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) does not contribute greatly to reducing tariff rates but does play a significant role in reducing NTBs. These results provide important implications for the literature on numerical assessments of FTAs.

Tariff reductions and labor demand elasticities : evidence from Chinese firm-level data

International production fragmentation has been a global trend for decades, becoming especially important in Asia where the manufacturing process is fragmented into stages and dispersed around the region. This paper examines the effects of input and output tariff reductions on labor demand elasticities at the firm level. For this purpose, we consider a simple heterogenous firm model in which firms are allowed to export their products and to use imported intermediate inputs. The model predicts that only productive firms can use imported intermediate inputs (outsourcing) and tend to have larger constant-output labor demand elasticities. Input tariff reductions would lower the factor shares of labor for these productive firms and raise conditional labor demand elasticities further. We test these empirical predictions, constructing Chinese firm-level panel data over the 2000--2006 period. Controlling for potential tariff endogeneity by instruments, our empirical studies generally support these predictions.

Spillover effects of TTIP on BRICS economies : a dynamic GVC-based CGE model

This paper uses a GVC (Global Value Chain)-based CGE model to assess the impact of TTIP between the U.S. and the EU on their main trading partners who are mainly engaged at the low end in the division system of global value chains, such as BRICS countries. The simulation results indicate that in general the TTIP would positively impact global trade and economies due to the reduction of both tariff and non-tariff barriers. With great increases in the US–EU bilateral trade, significant economic gains for the U.S. and the EU can be expected. For most BRICS countries, the aggregate exports and GDP suffer small negative impacts from the TTIP, except Brazil, but the inter-country trade within BRICS economies increases due to the substitution effect between the US–EU trade and the imports from BRICS countries when the TTIP commences.

FTA in international finance : impacts of exchange rates on FTA utilization

This paper investigates how exchange rates affect the utilization of a free trade agreement (FTA) scheme in trading. Changes in exchange rates affect FTA utilization by two ways. The first way is by changing the excess profits gained by utilizing the FTA scheme, and the second way is by promoting the compliance of rules of origin. Our theoretical models predict that the depreciation of exporters' currency against that of importers enhances the likelihood of FTA utilization through those two channels. Furthermore, our empirical analysis, which is based on rich tariff-line-level data on the utilization of FTA schemes in Korea's imports from ASEAN countries, supports the theoretical prediction. We also show that the effects are smaller for more differentiated products.

Simulation analysis of the EU ELV/RoHS directives based on an applied general equilibrium model with Melitz-type trade specification

This paper explores the potential usefulness of an AGE model with the Melitz-type trade specification to assess economic effects of technical regulations, taking the case of the EU ELV/RoHS directives as an example. Simulation experiments reveal that: (1) raising the fixed exporting cost to make sales in the EU market brings results that exports of the targeted commodities (motor vehicles and parts for ELV and electronic equipment for RoHS) to the EU from outside regions/countries expand while the domestic trade in the EU shrinks when the importer's preference for variety (PfV) is not strong; (2) if the PfV is not strong, policy changes that may bring reduction in the number of firms enable survived producers with high productivity to expand production to be large-scale mass producers fully enjoying the fruit of economies of scale; and (3) When the strength of the importer's PfV is changed from zero to unity, there is the value that totally changes simulation results and their interpretations.

On the testing of large PV arrays

This paper reports on the IES-UPM experience from 2006 to 2010 in the field of the characterization of PV arrays of commercial large PV plants installed in Spain within the framework of the profitable economic scenarios associated to feed-in tariff laws. This experience has extended to 200 MW and has provided valuable lessons to minimize uncertainty, which plays a key role in quality assurance procedures. The paper deals not only with classic I–V measurements but also with watt-metering-based procedures. Particular attention is paid to the selection of irradiance and cell temperature sensors