Why do convertible issuers simultaneously repurchase stock? An arbitrage-based explanation

We examine why firms combine convertible debt offerings with stock repurchases. In 2006, 33% of the convertible issuers in the US simultaneously repurchased stock. These combined transactions are inconsistent with traditional motivations for convertible issuance. We document that convertible arbitrage drives these stock repurchases. Convertible debt arbitrageurs simultaneously buy convertibles and short sell the issuer’s common stock, resulting in downward pressure on the stock price. To prevent such short-selling activity, firms repurchase their stock directly from arbitrageurs. We show that combined transactions exhibit lower short-selling activity and that convertible arbitrage explains both the size and speed of the stock repurchases.

Serum Leptin Concentration, Body Mass Index and Incident Heart Failure: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

Background: Leptin is produced primarily by adipocytes. Although originally associated with the central regulation of satiety and energy metabolism, increasing evidence indicates that leptin may be an important factor for congestive heart faire (CHF). In the study, we aimed to test the hypothesis that leptin may influence CHF pathophysiology via a pathway of increasing body mass index (BMI). Methods: We studied 2,389 elderly participants aged 70 and older (M; 1161, F: 1228) without CHF and with serum leptin measures at the Health Aging, and Body Composition study. We analyzed the association between serum leptin level and risk of incident CHF using Cox hazard proportional regression models. Elevated leptin level was defined as more than the highest quartile (Q4) of leptin distribution in the total sample for each gender. Adjusted-covariates included demographic, behavior, lipid and inflammation variables (partially-adjusted models), and further included BMI (fully-adjusted models). Results: In a mean 9-year follow-up, 316 participants (13.2%) developed CHF. The partially-adjusted models indicated that men and women with elevated serum leptin levels (>=9.89 ng/ml in men and >=25 ng/ml in women) had significantly higher risks of developing CHF than those with leptin level of less than Q4. The adjusted hazard ratios (95%CI) for incident CHF was 1.49 (1.04 -2.13) in men and 1.71 (1.12 -2.58) in women. However, these associations became non-significant after adjustment for including BMI for each gender. The fully-adjusted hazard ratios (95%CI) were 1.43 (0.94 -2.18) in men and 1.24 (0.77-1.99) in women. Conclusion: Subjects with elevated leptin levels have a higher risk of CHF. The study supports the hypothesis that the influence of leptin level on risk of CHF may be through a pathway related to increasing BMI.

Stock market integration between new EU member states and the Euro-zone

This paper measures the degree in stock market integration between five Eastern European countries and the Euro-zone. A potentially gradual transition in correlations is accommodated by smooth transition conditional correlation models. We find that the correlation between stock markets has increased from 2001 to 2007. In particular, the Czech and Polish markets show a higher correlation to the Euro-zone. However, this is not a broad-based phenomenon across Eastern Europe. We also find that the increase in correlations is not a reflection of a world-wide phenomenon of financial integration but appears to be specific to the European market. JEL classifications: C32; C51; F36; G15 Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation; Stock Return Comovement; New EU Members.

Progress Towards to Equity Market Integration in Eastern Europe

The advent of the European Union has decreased the diversification benefits available from country based equity market indices in the region. This paper measures the increase in stock integration between the three largest new EU members (Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland who joined in May 2004) and the Euro-zone. A potentially gradual transition in correlations is accommodated in a single VAR model by embedding smooth transition conditional correlation models with fat tails, spillovers, volatility clustering, and asymmetric volatility effects. At the country market index level all three Eastern European markets show a considerable increase in correlations in 2006. At the industry level the dates and transition periods for the correlations differ, and the correlations are lower although also increasing. The results show that sectoral indices in Eastern European markets may provide larger diversification opportunities than the aggregate market. JEL classifications: C32; C51; F36; G15 Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation; Stock Return Comovement; Sectoral correlations; New EU Members

The long run relationship between stock prices and goods prices: new evidence from panel cointegration

We examine the long run relationship between stock prices and goods prices to gauge whether stock market investment can hedge against inflation. Data from sixteen OECD countries over the period 1970-2006 are used. We account for different inflation regimes with the use of sub-sample regressions, whilst maintaining the power of tests in small sample sizes by combining time-series data across our sample countries in a panel unit root and panel cointegration econometric framework. The evidence supports a positive long-run relationship between goods prices and stock prices with the estimated goods price coefficient being in line with the generalized Fisher hypothesis.

Analysing the impact of public capital stock using the NEG wage equation: a panel data approach

This paper examines the relationship between the level of public infrastructure and the level of productivity using panel data for the Spanish provinces over the period 1984-2004, a period which is particularly relevant due to the substantial changes occurring in the Spanish economy at that time. The underlying model used for the data analysis is based on the wage equation, which is one of a handful of simultaneous equations which when satisfied correspond to the short-run equilibrium of New Economic Geography theory. This is estimated using a spatial panel model with fixed time and province effects, so that unmodelled space and time constant sources of heterogeneity are eliminated. The model assumes that productivity depends on the level of educational attainment and the public capital stock endowment of each province. The results show that although changes in productivity are positively associated with changes in public investment within the same province, there is a negative relationship between productivity changes and changes in public investment in other regions.

Body mass index, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption and cancers of the oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx: modeling odds ratios in pooled case-control data.

Odds ratios for head and neck cancer increase with greater cigarette and alcohol use and lower body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height(2) (m(2))). Using data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium, the authors conducted a formal analysis of BMI as a modifier of smoking- and alcohol-related effects. Analysis of never and current smokers included 6,333 cases, while analysis of never drinkers and consumers of < or =10 drinks/day included 8,452 cases. There were 8,000 or more controls, depending on the analysis. Odds ratios for all sites increased with lower BMI, greater smoking, and greater drinking. In polytomous regression, odds ratios for BMI (P = 0.65), smoking (P = 0.52), and drinking (P = 0.73) were homogeneous for oral cavity and pharyngeal cancers. Odds ratios for BMI and drinking were greater for oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer (P < 0.01), while smoking odds ratios were greater for laryngeal cancer (P < 0.01). Lower BMI enhanced smoking- and drinking-related odds ratios for oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer (P < 0.01), while BMI did not modify smoking and drinking odds ratios for laryngeal cancer. The increased odds ratios for all sites with low BMI may suggest related carcinogenic mechanisms; however, BMI modification of smoking and drinking odds ratios for cancer of the oral cavity/pharynx but not larynx cancer suggests additional factors specific to oral cavity/pharynx cancer.

Measurement of 13CO2 in expired air as an index of compliance to a high carbohydrate diet naturally enriched in 13C.

The aim of this study was to determine whether breath 13CO2 measurements could be used to assess the compliance to a diet containing carbohydrates naturally enriched in 13C. The study was divided into two periods: Period 1 (baseline of 4 days) with low 13C/12C ratio carbohydrates. Period 2 (5 days) isocaloric diet with a high 13C/12C ratio (corn, cane sugar, pineapple, millet) carbohydrates. Measurements were made of respiratory gas exchange by indirect calorimetry, urinary nitrogen excretion and breath 13CO2 every morning in post-absorptive conditions, both in resting state and during a 45-min low intensity exercise (walking on a treadmill). The subjects were 10 healthy lean women (BMI 20.4 +/- 1.7 kg/m2, % body fat 24.4 +/- 1.3%), the 13C enrichment of oxidized carbohydrate and breath 13CO2 were compared to the enrichment of exogenous dietary carbohydrates. At rest the enrichment of oxidized carbohydrate increased significantly after one day of 13C carbohydrate enriched diet and reached a steady value (103 +/- 16%) similar to the enrichment of exogenous carbohydrates. During exercise, the 13C enrichment of oxidized carbohydrate remained significantly lower (68 +/- 17%) than that of dietary carbohydrates. The compliance to a diet with a high content of carbohydrates naturally enriched in 13C may be assessed from the measurement of breath 13CO2 enrichment combined with respiratory gas exchange in resting, postabsorptive conditions.

On monetary policy and stock market anomalies

This study utilizes a macro-based VAR framework to investigate whether stock portfolios formedon the basis of their value, size and past performance characteristics are affected in a differentialmanner by unexpected US monetary policy actions during the period 1967-2007. Full sample results show that value, small capitalization and past loser stocks are more exposed to monetary policy shocks in comparison to growth, big capitalization and past winner stocks. Subsample analysis, motivated by variation in the realized premia and parameter instability, reveals that monetary policy shocks’ impact on these portfolios is significant and pronounced only during the pre-1983 period.

Regional productivity variation and the impact of public capital stock: an analysis with spatial interaction, with reference to Spain

In this paper we examine whether variations in the level of public capital across Spain‟s Provinces affected productivity levels over the period 1996-2005. The analysis is motivated by contemporary urban economics theory, involving a production function for the competitive sector of the economy („industry‟) which includes the level of composite services derived from „service‟ firms under monopolistic competition. The outcome is potentially increasing returns to scale resulting from pecuniary externalities deriving from internal increasing returns in the monopolistic competition sector. We extend the production function by also making (log) labour efficiency a function of (log) total public capital stock and (log) human capital stock, leading to a simple and empirically tractable reduced form linking productivity level to density of employment, human capital and public capital stock. The model is further extended to include technological externalities or spillovers across provinces. Using panel data methodology, we find significant elasticities for total capital stock and for human capital stock, and a significant impact for employment density. The finding that the effect of public capital is significantly different from zero, indicating that it has a direct effect even after controlling for employment density, is contrary to some of the earlier research findings which leave the question of the impact of public capital unresolved.

Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis

This study examines the impact of macro-liquidity shocks on the returns of UK stock portfolios sorted on the basis of a series of micro-liquidity measures. The macro-liquidity shocks are extracted on the meeting days of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee relative to market expectations embedded in futures contracts on the 3-month LIBOR during the period June 1999- December 2009. We report definitive evidence that these shocks are transmitted to the cross-section of liquidity-sorted portfolios, with most liquid stocks playing a very active role. Our results emphatically document that the shocks-returns relationship has reversed its sign during the recent financial crisis; the standard inverse relationship between interest rate surprises and portfolios’ returns before the crisis has turned into positive during the crisis. This finding confirms the inability of interest rate cuts to boost returns in the shortrun during the crisis, because these were perceived by market participants as a signal of a deteriorating economic outlook.

Handling the endogeneity of income to health using a field experiment in Taiwan

This paper uses an exogenous increase in income for a specific sub-group in Taiwan to explore the extent to which higher income leads to higher levels of health and wellbeing. In 1995, the Taiwanese government implemented the Senior Farmer Welfare Benefit Interim Regulation (SFWBIR) which was a pure cash injection, approximately US$110 (£70) per month in 1996, to senior farmers. A Difference-in-differences (DiD) approach is used on survey data from the Taiwanese Health and Living Status of Elderly in 1989 and 1996 to evaluate the short term effect of the SFWBIR on self-assessed health, depression, and life satisfaction. Senior manufacturing workers are employed as a comparison group for the senior farmers in the natural experiment because their demographic backgrounds are similar. This paper provides evidence that the increase in income from the SFWBIR significantly improved the mental health of senior farmers by reducing the scale of depression (CES-D) by 1.718, however, it had no significant short term impact on self-assessed health or life satisfaction.

Fecal calprotectin more accurately reflects endoscopic activity of ulcerative colitis than the Lichtiger Index, C-reactive protein, platelets, hemoglobin, and blood leukocytes.

BACKGROUND: The correlation between noninvasive markers with endoscopic activity according to the modified Baron Index in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the correlation between endoscopic activity and fecal calprotectin (FC), C-reactive protein (CRP), hemoglobin, platelets, blood leukocytes, and the Lichtiger Index (clinical score). METHODS: UC patients undergoing complete colonoscopy were prospectively enrolled and scored clinically and endoscopically. Samples from feces and blood were analyzed in UC patients and controls. RESULTS: We enrolled 228 UC patients and 52 healthy controls. Endoscopic disease activity correlated best with FC (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient r = 0.821), followed by the Lichtiger Index (r = 0.682), CRP (r = 0.556), platelets (r = 0.488), blood leukocytes (r = 0.401), and hemoglobin (r = -0.388). FC was the only marker that could discriminate between different grades of endoscopic activity (grade 0, 16 [10-30] μg/g; grade 1, 35 [25-48] μg/g; grade 2, 102 [44-159] μg/g; grade 3, 235 [176-319] μg/g; grade 4, 611 [406-868] μg/g; P < 0.001 for discriminating the different grades). FC with a cutoff of 57 μg/g had a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 90% to detect endoscopically active disease (modified Baron Index ≥ 2). CONCLUSIONS: FC correlated better with endoscopic disease activity than clinical activity, CRP, platelets, hemoglobin, and blood leukocytes. The strong correlation with endoscopic disease activity suggests that FC represents a useful biomarker for noninvasive monitoring of disease activity in UC patients.

Reasons why emergency department providers do not rely on the pneumonia severity index to determine the initial site of treatment for patients with pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Many emergency department (ED) providers do not follow guideline recommendations for the use of the pneumonia severity index (PSI) to determine the initial site of treatment for patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We identified the reasons why ED providers hospitalize low-risk patients or manage higher-risk patients as outpatients. METHODS: As a part of a trial to implement a PSI-based guideline for the initial site of treatment of patients with CAP, we analyzed data for patients managed at 12 EDs allocated to a high-intensity guideline implementation strategy study arm. The guideline recommended outpatient care for low-risk patients (nonhypoxemic patients with a PSI risk classification of I, II, or III) and hospitalization for higher-risk patients (hypoxemic patients or patients with a PSI risk classification of IV or V). We asked providers who made guideline-discordant decisions on site of treatment to detail the reasons for nonadherence to guideline recommendations. RESULTS: There were 1,306 patients with CAP (689 low-risk patients and 617 higher-risk patients). Among these patients, physicians admitted 258 (37.4%) of 689 low-risk patients and treated 20 (3.2%) of 617 higher-risk patients as outpatients. The most commonly reported reasons for admitting low-risk patients were the presence of a comorbid illness (178 [71.5%] of 249 patients); a laboratory value, vital sign, or symptom that precluded ED discharge (73 patients [29.3%]); or a recommendation from a primary care or a consulting physician (48 patients [19.3%]). Higher-risk patients were most often treated as outpatients because of a recommendation by a primary care or consulting physician (6 [40.0%] of 15 patients). CONCLUSION: ED providers hospitalize many low-risk patients with CAP, most frequently for a comorbid illness. Although higher-risk patients are infrequently treated as outpatients, this decision is often based on the request of an involved physician.

La responsabilité entre éthique et religion. Discussion avec Paul Ricoeur

(Résumé de l'ouvrage) Ethique de la biologie, mais aussi éthique de la science, des affaires, des assurances, de lentreprise, du corps et de la sexualité, de la communication, de lenvironnement, de la famille... Les champs dapplication de léthique sont sans limites. ... Composé de trois parties, cet ouvrage présente dabord les grandes options philosophiques (libéralisme, utilitarisme, éthique de la discussion, etc.) et les grandes figures (Aristote, Kant, Spinoza, Heidegger, Foucault, etc.) en matière déthique, puis les différents domaines concernés, et enfin les grands débats (pour ou contre la pornographie, le clonage, l'euthanasie, l'éducation, l'avortement...). Écrit de façon pédagogique, il donne une bibliographie très actuelle pour chaque entrée, un index des thèmes et des noms. L'ouvrage rassemble plus de cinquante intervenants francophones. ...