When non-significance may be significant : lessons learned from a study of the development, implementation and evaluation of a fleet risk assessment tool

This paper reports on the development and implementation of a self-report risk assessment tool that was developed in an attempt to increase the efficacy of crash prediction within Australian fleet settings. This study forms a part of a broader program of research into work related road safety and identification of driving risk. The first phase of the study involved a series of focus groups being conducted with 217 professional drivers which revealed that the following factors were proposed to influence driving performance: Fatigue, Knowledge of risk, Mood, Impatience and frustration, Speed limits, Experience, Other road users, Passengers, Health, and Culture. The second phase of the study involved piloting the newly developed 38 item Driving Risk Assessment Scale - Work Version (DRAS-WV) with 546 professional drivers. Factor analytic techniques identified a 9 factor solution that was comprised of speeding, aggression, time pressure, distraction, casualness, awareness, maintenance, fatigue and minor damage. Speeding and aggressive driving manoeuvres were identified to be the most frequent aberrant driving behaviours engaged in by the sample. However, a series of logistic regression analyses undertaken to determine the DRAS-WV scale’s ability to predict self-reported crashes revealed limited predictive efficacy e.g., 10% of crashes. This paper outlines proposed reasons for this limited predictive ability of the DRAS-WV as well as provides suggestions regarding the future of research that aims to develop methods to identify “at risk” drivers.

Navigational Safety in Port Waters : Proactive Management of Collision Risk Using Traffic Conflicts

Traditionally navigational safety analyses rely on historical collision data which is often hampered because of low collision counts, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these problems is using navigational traffic conflicts or near-misses as an alternative to the collision data. This book discusses how traffic conflicts can effectively be used in modeling of port water collision risks. Techniques for measuring and predicting collision risks in fairways, intersections, and anchorages are discussed by utilizing advanced statistical models. Risk measurement models, which quantitatively measure collision risks in waterways, are discussed. To predict risks, a hierarchical statistical modeling technique is discussed which identifies the factors influencing the risks. The modeling techniques are illustrated for Singapore port data. Results showed that traffic conflicts are an ethically appealing alternative to collision data for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

Developing guidelines for intervention to reduce risk of low-speed vehicle run-overs of young children

In Australia, research suggests that up to one quarter of child pedestrian hospitalisations result from driveway run-over incidents (Pinkney et al., 2006). In Queensland, these numbers equate to an average of four child fatalities and 81 children presenting at hospital emergency departments every year (The Commission for Children, Young People and Child Guardian). National comparison shows that these numbers represent a slightly higher per capita rate (23.5% of all deaths). To address this issue, the current research was undertaken with the aim to develop an educative intervention based on data collected from parents and caregivers of young children. Thus, the current project did not seek to use available intervention or educational material, but to develop a new evidence-based intervention specifically targeting driveway run-overs involving young children. To this end, general behavioural and environmental changes that caregivers had undertaken in order to reduce the risk of injury to any child in their care were investigated. Broadly, the first part of this report sought to: • develop a conceptual model of established domestic safety behaviours, and to investigate whether this model could be successfully applied to the driveway setting; • explore and compare sources of knowledge regarding domestic and driveway child safety; and • examine the theoretical implications of current domestic and driveway related behaviour and knowledge among caregivers. The aim of the second part of this research was to develop and test the efficacy of an intervention based on the findings in the first part of the research project. Specifically, it sought to: • develop an educational driveway intervention that is based on current safety behaviours in the domestic setting and informed by existing knowledge of driveway safety and behaviour change theory; and • evaluate its efficacy in a sample of parents and caregivers.

Antibiotics overuse in children with upper respiratory tract infections in Saudi Arabia : risk factors and potential interventions

Background: Antibiotics misuse is currently one of the major public health issues worldwide. This misuse can lead to the development of bacterial resistance, increasing the burden of chronic diseases, rising costs of health services, and the development of side effects. Several factors may influence this pattern of overuse. Objectives:This article will review the pertinent factors contributing to the overuse of antibiotics worldwide, and to assess the intervention strategies to limit this overuse. Methods: studies about antibiotics use in children were reviewed from several electronic databases, such as MEDLINE and Pubmed. Results: Factors contributing to the overuse of antibiotics could include psychosocial factors, such as behaviors and attitudes (e.g. self-medication, over-the-counter medication, or patients/parents pressure), and demographic factors, such as socio-economic status and education level. Several intervention strategies were reported to be effective in reducing the overuse of antibiotics, such as health education, doctor-patient communication, and policies change. Multifaceted interventions were found to be the most effective in reducing the antibiotics overuse.

Is diurnal temperature range a risk factor for childhood diarrhea?

Background Previous studies have found that high and cold temperatures increase the risk of childhood diarrhea. However, little is known about whether the within-day variation of temperature has any effect on childhood diarrhea. Methods A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationship between diurnal temperature range and emergency department admissions for diarrhea among children under five years in Brisbane, from 1st January 2003 to 31st December 2009. Results There was a statistically significant relationship between diurnal temperature range and childhood diarrhea. The effect of diurnal temperature range on childhood diarrhea was the greatest at one day lag, with a 3% (95% confidence interval: 2%–5%) increase of emergency department admissions per 1°C increment of diurnal temperature range. Conclusion Within-day variation of temperature appeared to be a risk factor for childhood diarrhea. The incidence of childhood diarrhea may increase if climate variability increases as predicted.

Do high levels of physical activity favor favorable cardiovascular risk factors regardless of sleep?

This study suggests that physical activity is a more important lifestyle modification than sleep to improve cardiovascular risk factors in postmenopausal women; however both lifestyle modifications, including, ensuring sufficient sleep quality and duration and increasing physical activity should be strongly encouraged by menopause practitioners in postmenopausal women care.

Lifestyle risk factor modification in midlife women with type 2 diabetes : theoretical modelling of perceived barriers

Objective: The aim of this paper is to propose a ‘Perceived barriers and lifestyle risk factor modification model’ that could be incorporated into existing frameworks for diabetes education to enhance lifestyle risk factor education in women. Setting: Diabetes education, community health. Primary argument: ‘Perceived barriers’ is a health promotion concept that has been found to be a significant predictor of health promotion behaviour. There is evidence that women face a range of perceived barriers that prevent them from engaging in healthy lifestyle activities. Despite this, current evidence based models of diabetes education do not explicitly incorporate the concept of perceived barriers. A model of risk factor reduction that incorporates ‘perceived barriers’ is proposed. Conclusion: Although further research is required, current approaches to risk factor reduction in type 2 diabetes could be enhanced by identification and goal setting to reduce an individual’s perceived barriers.

Risk-based approach to the management of on-site wastewater treatment facilities

Background On-site wastewater treatment system (OWTS) siting, design and management has traditionally been based on site specific conditions with little regard to the surrounding environment or the cumulative effect of other systems in the environment. The general approach has been to apply the same framework of standards and regulations to all sites equally, regardless of the sensitivity, or lack thereof, to the receiving environment. Consequently, this has led to the continuing poor performance and failure of on-site systems, resulting in environmental and public health consequences. As a result, there is increasing realisation that more scientifically robust evaluations in regard to site assessment and the underlying ground conditions are needed. Risk-based approaches to on-site system siting, design and management are considered the most appropriate means of improvement to the current standards and codes for on-site wastewater treatment systems. The Project Research in relation to this project was undertaken within the Gold Coast City Council region, the major focus being the semi-urban, rural residential and hinterland areas of the city that are not serviced by centralised treatment systems. The Gold Coast has over 15,000 on-site systems in use, with approximately 66% being common septic tank-subsurface dispersal systems. A recent study evaluating the performance of these systems within the Gold Coast area showed approximately 90% were not meeting the specified guidelines for effluent treatment and dispersal. The main focus of this research was to incorporate strong scientific knowledge into an integrated risk assessment process to allow suitable management practices to be set in place to mitigate the inherent risks. To achieve this, research was undertaken focusing on three main aspects involved with the performance and management of OWTS. Firstly, an investigation into the suitability of soil for providing appropriate effluent renovation was conducted. This involved detailed soil investigations, laboratory analysis and the use of multivariate statistical methods for analysing soil information. The outcomes of these investigations were developed into a framework for assessing soil suitability for effluent renovation. This formed the basis for the assessment of OWTS siting and design risks employed in the developed risk framework. Secondly, an assessment of the environmental and public health risks was performed specifically related the release of contaminants from OWTS. This involved detailed groundwater and surface water sampling and analysis to assess the current and potential risks of contamination throughout the Gold Coast region. Additionally, the assessment of public health risk incorporated the use of bacterial source tracking methods to identify the different sources of fecal contamination within monitored regions. Antibiotic resistance pattern analysis was utilised to determine the extent of human faecal contamination, with the outcomes utilised for providing a more indicative public health assessment. Finally, the outcomes of both the soil suitability assessment and ground and surface water monitoring was utilised for the development of the integrated risk framework. The research outcomes achieved through this project enabled the primary research aims and objects to be accomplished. This in turn would enable Gold Coast City Council to provide more appropriate assessment and management guidelines based on robust scientific knowledge which will ultimately ensure that the potential environmental and public health impacts resulting from on-site wastewater treatment is minimised. As part of the implementation of suitable management strategies, a critical point monitoring program (CPM) was formulated. This entailed the identification of the key critical parameters that contribute to the characterised risks at monitored locations within the study area. The CPM will allow more direct procedures to be implemented, targeting the specific hazards at sensitive areas throughout Gold Coast region.

Malnutrition and falls risk in community-dwelling older adults

Background and Aims: Falls and fall-related injuries result in reduced functioning, loss of independence, premature nursing home admissions and mortality. Malnutrition is associated with falls in the acute setting, but little is known about malnutrition and falls risk in the community. The aim of this study was to assess the association between malnutrition risk, falls risk and falls over a one-year period in community-dwelling older adults. Methods: Two hundred and fifty four subjects >65 years of age were recruited to participate in a study in order to identify risk factors for falls. Malnutrition risk was determined using the Mini Nutritional Assessment–Short Form. Results: 28.6% had experienced a fall and according to the Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form 3.9% (n=10) of subjects were at risk of malnutrition. There were no associations between malnutrition risk, the risk of falls, nor actual falls in healthy older adults in the community setting. Conclusions: There was a low prevalence of malnutrition risk in this sample of community-dwelling older adults and no association between nutritional risk and falls. Screening as part of a falls prevention program should focus on the risk of developing malnutrition as this is associated with falls.

Risk control in transmission system expansion planning with wind generators

With the advent of large-scale wind farms and their integration into electrical grids, more uncertainties, constraints and objectives must be considered in power system development. It is therefore necessary to introduce risk-control strategies into the planning of transmission systems connected with wind power generators. This paper presents a probability-based multi-objective model equipped with three risk-control strategies. The model is developed to evaluate and enhance the ability of the transmission system to protect against overload risks when wind power is integrated into the power system. The model involves: (i) defining the uncertainties associated with wind power generators with probability measures and calculating the probabilistic power flow with the combined use of cumulants and Gram-Charlier series; (ii) developing three risk-control strategies by specifying the smallest acceptable non-overload probability for each branch and the whole system, and specifying the non-overload margin for all branches in the whole system; (iii) formulating an overload risk index based on the non-overload probability and the non-overload margin defined; and (iv) developing a multi-objective transmission system expansion planning (TSEP) model with the objective functions composed of transmission investment and the overload risk index. The presented work represents a superior risk-control model for TSEP in terms of security, reliability and economy. The transmission expansion planning model with the three risk-control strategies demonstrates its feasibility in the case study using two typical power systems

The effect of a high fat meal on postprandial arterial stiffness in men with obesity and type 2 diabetes

Context: Postprandial dysmetabolism is emerging as an important cardiovascular risk factor. Augmentation index (AIx) is a measure of systemic arterial stiffness and independently predicts cardiovascular outcome. Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the effect of a standardized high-fat meal on metabolic parameters and AIx in 1) lean, 2) obese nondiabetic, and 3) subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Design and Setting: Male subjects (lean, n = 8; obese, n = 10; and T2DM, n = 10) were studied for 6 h after a high-fat meal and water control. Glucose, insulin, triglycerides, and AIx (radial applanation tonometry) were measured serially to determine the incremental area under the curve (iAUC). Results: AIx decreased in all three groups after a high-fat meal. A greater overall postprandial reduction in AIx was seen in lean and T2DM compared with obese subjects (iAUC, 2251 +/- 1204, 2764 +/- 1102, and 1187 +/- 429% . min, respectively; P < 0.05). The time to return to baseline AIx was significantly delayed in subjects with T2DM (297 +/- 68 min) compared with lean subjects (161 +/- 88 min; P < 0.05). There was a significant correlation between iAUC AIx and iAUC triglycerides (r = 0.50; P < 0.05). Conclusions: Obesity is associated with an attenuated overall postprandial decrease in AIx. Subjects with T2DM have a preserved, but significantly prolonged, reduction in AIx after a high-fat meal. The correlation between AIx and triglycerides suggests that postprandial dysmetabolism may impact on vascular dynamics. The markedly different response observed in the obese subjects compared with those with T2DM was unexpected and warrants additional evaluation.

Akt, AS160, metabolic risk factors and aerobic fitness in middle-aged women

Aims: This study investigated the association between the basal (rest) insulin-signaling proteins, Akt, and the Akt substrate AS160, metabolic risk factors, inflammatory markers and aerobic fitness, in middle-aged women with varying numbers of metabolic risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Methods: Sixteen women (n = 16) aged 51.3+/-5.1 (mean +/-SD) years provided muscle biopsies and blood samples at rest. In addition, anthropometric characteristics and aerobic power were assessed and the number of metabolic risk factors for each participant was determined (IDF criteria). Results: The mean number of metabolic risk factors was 1.6+/-1.2. Total Akt was negatively correlated with IL-1 beta (r = -0.45, p = 0.046), IL-6 (r = -0.44, p = 0.052) and TNF-alpha (r = -0.51, p = 0.025). Phosphorylated AS160 was positively correlated with HDL (r = 0.58, p = 0.024) and aerobic fitness (r = 0.51, p = 0.047). Furthermore, a multiple regression analysis revealed that both HDL (t = 2.5, p = 0.032) and VO(2peak) (t = 2.4, p = 0.037) were better predictors for phosphorylated AS160 than TNF-alpha or IL-6 (p>0.05). Conclusions: Elevated inflammatory markers and increased metabolic risk factors may inhibit insulin-signaling protein phosphorylation in middle-aged women, thereby increasing insulin resistance under basal conditions. Furthermore, higher HDL and fitness levels are associated with an increased AS160 phosphorylation, which may in turn reduce insulin resistance.

Australian Diabetes Foot Network : management of diabetes-related foot ulceration — a clinical update

Summary Appropriate assessment and management of diabetes-related foot ulcers (DRFUs) is essential to reduce amputation risk. Management requires debridement, wound dressing, pressure off-loading, good glycaemic control and potentially antibiotic therapy and vascular intervention. As a minimum, all DRFUs should be managed by a doctor and a podiatrist and/or wound care nurse. Health professionals unable to provide appropriate care for people with DRFUs should promptly refer individuals to professionals with the requisite knowledge and skills. Indicators for immediate referral to an emergency department or multidisciplinary foot care team (MFCT) include gangrene, limb-threatening ischaemia, deep ulcers (bone, joint or tendon in the wound base), ascending cellulitis, systemic symptoms of infection and abscesses. Referral to an MFCT should occur if there is lack of wound progress after 4 weeks of appropriate treatment.

More light at the end of the tunnel – apixaban in atrial fibrillation

Introduction: Subjects with atrial fibrillation are at risk of thromboembolic events. The vitamin K antagonists (e.g., warfarin) are useful at preventing coagulation in atrial fibrillation, but are difficult to use. One of the FXa inhibitors, oral apixaban, has been tested as an anticoagulant in atrial fibrillation. Areas covered: In ARISTOTLE (Apixaban for reduction in stroke and other thromboembolic events in atrial fibrillation) apixaban was compared to warfarin in subjects with atrial fibrillation, and shown to cause a lower rate of stroke or systemic embolism and of major bleeding, than warfarin. In the AVERROES (Apixaban versus acetylsalicylic acid [ASA] to prevent stroke in atrial fibrillations patients who have failed or are unsuitable for vitamin K antagonist treatment) trial, stroke or systemic embolism occurred less often with apixaban than aspirin, whereas the occurrence of major bleeding was similar in the groups. Expert opinion: Apixaban is much easier for subjects with atrial fibrillation to use than warfarin, as it does not require regular monitoring by a health professional, with dosage adjustment. In addition to replacing warfarin in subjects with atrial fibrillation who are unable or not prepared to use warfarin, apixaban has the potential to replace warfarin more widely in the prevention of thromboembolism in subjects with atrial fibrillation.