Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

The Asian monsoon system, including the western North Pacific (WNP), East Asian, and Indian monsoons, dominates the climate of the Asia-Indian Ocean-Pacific region, and plays a significant role in the global hydrological and energy cycles. The prediction of monsoons and associated climate features is a major challenge in seasonal time scale climate forecast. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the interannual predictability of the WNP summer climate has been performed using the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for the period of 1960–2005. Spatial distribution of the temporal correlation coefficients shows that the interannual variation of precipitation is well predicted around the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. The high skills for the lower-tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) spread over almost the whole WNP. These results indicate that the models in general successfully predict the interannual variation of the WNP summer climate. Two typical indices, the WNP summer precipitation index and the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation index (WNPMI), have been used to quantify the forecast skill. The correlation coefficient between five models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) mean prediction and observations for the WNP summer precipitation index reaches 0.66 during 1979–2005 while it is 0.68 for the WNPMI during 1960–2005. The WNPMI-regressed anomalies of lower-tropospheric winds, SSTs and precipitation are similar between observations and MME. Further analysis suggests that prediction reliability of the WNP summer climate mainly arises from the atmosphere–ocean interaction over the tropical Indian and the tropical Pacific Ocean, implying that continuing improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over these regions in CGCMs is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia. On the other hand, the prediction of the WNP summer climate anomalies exhibits a remarkable spread resulted from uncertainty in initial conditions. The summer anomalies related to the prediction spread, including the lower-tropospheric circulation, SST and precipitation anomalies, show a Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific pattern in the meridional direction over the WNP. Our further investigations suggest that the WNPMI prediction spread arises mainly from the internal dynamics in air–sea interaction over the WNP and Indian Ocean, since the local relationships among the anomalous SST, circulation, and precipitation associated with the spread are similar to those associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in both observations and MME. However, the magnitudes of these anomalies related to the spread are weaker, ranging from one third to a half of those anomalies associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in MME over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP. These results further support that the improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP in CGCMs is a key for reducing the prediction spread and for improving the long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia.

Evaluating the likelihood of the adoption of an animal welfare assessment system in European agri-food supply chains

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the likelihood of adoption of a recently designed Welfare Assessment System in agri-food supply chains and the factors affecting the adoption decision. The application is carried out for pig and poultry chains. Design/methodology/approach – This research consisted of two main components: interviews with retailers in pig and poultry supply chains in eight different EU countries to explore their perceptions towards the adoption possibilities of the welfare assessment system; and a conjoint analysis designed to evaluate the perceived adoption likelihood of the assessment system by different Standards Formulating Organisations (SFOs). Findings – Stakeholders were found to be especially concerned about the costs of implementation of the system and how it could, or should, be merged with existing assurance schemes. Another conclusion of the study is that the presence of a strong third independent party supporting the implementation of the welfare assessment system would be the most important influence on the decision whether, or not, to adopt it. Originality/value – This research evaluates the adoption possibilities of a novel Welfare Assessment System and presents the views of different supply chain stakeholders on an adoption of such a system. The main factors affecting the adoption decision are identified and analysed. Contrary to expectations, the costs of adoption of a new welfare assessment system were not considered to be the most important factor affecting the decision of supply chain stakeholders about the adoption of this new welfare system.

On the stability radius of a generalized state-space system

The concept of “distance to instability” of a system matrix is generalized to system pencils which arise in descriptor (semistate) systems. Difficulties arise in the case of singular systems, because the pencil can be made unstable by an infinitesimal perturbation. It is necessary to measure the distance subject to restricted, or structured, perturbations. In this paper a suitable measure for the stability radius of a generalized state-space system is defined, and a computable expression for the distance to instability is derived for regular pencils of index less than or equal to one. For systems which are strongly controllable it is shown that this measure is related to the sensitivity of the poles of the system over all feedback matrices assigning the poles.

Bridging a yawning chasm: EEG investigations into the debate concerning the role of the human mirror neuron system in contagious yawning

Ongoing debate in the literature concerns whether there is a link between contagious yawning and the human mirror neuron system (hMNS). One way of examining this issue is with the use of the electroencephalogram (EEG) to measure changes in mu activation during the observation of yawns. Mu oscillations are seen in the alpha bandwidth of the EEG (8–12 Hz) over sensorimotor areas. Previous work has shown that mu suppression is a useful index of hMNS activation and is sensitive to individual differences in empathy. In two experiments, we presented participants with videos of either people yawning or control stimuli. We found greater mu suppression for yawns than for controls over right motor and premotor areas, particularly for those scoring higher on traits of empathy. In a third experiment, auditory recordings of yawns were compared against electronically scrambled versions of the same yawns. We observed greater mu suppression for yawns than for the controls over right lateral premotor areas. Again, these findings were driven by those scoring highly on empathy. The results from these experiments support the notion that the hMNS is involved in contagious yawning, emphasise the link between contagious yawning and empathy, and stress the importance of good control stimuli.

Tree species diversity interacts with elevated CO2 to induce a greater root system response

As a consequence of land use change and the burning of fossil fuels, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are increasing and altering the dynamics of the carbon cycle in forest ecosystems. In a number of studies using single tree species, fine root biomass has been shown to be strongly increased by elevated CO2. However, natural forests are often intimate mixtures of a number of co-occurring species. To investigate the interaction between tree mixture and elevated CO2, Alnus glutinosa, Betula pendula and Fagus sylvatica were planted in areas of single species and a three species polyculture in a free-air CO2 enrichment study (BangorFACE). The trees were exposed to ambient or elevated CO2 (580 µmol mol-1) for four years. Fine and coarse root biomass, together with fine root turnover and fine root morphological characteristics were measured. Fine root biomass, and morphology responded differentially to elevated CO2 at different soil depths in the three species when grown in monocultures. In polyculture, a greater response to elevated CO2 was observed in coarse roots to a depth of 20 cm, and fine root area index to a depth of 30 cm. Total fine root biomass was positively affected by elevated CO2 at the end of the experiment, but not by species diversity. Our data suggest that existing biogeochemical cycling models parameterised with data from species grown in monoculture may be underestimating the belowground response to global change.

Reliability of regional climate model trends

A necessary condition for a good probabilistic forecast is that the forecast system is shown to be reliable: forecast probabilities should equal observed probabilities verified over a large number of cases. As climate change trends are now emerging from the natural variability, we can apply this concept to climate predictions and compute the reliability of simulated local and regional temperature and precipitation trends (1950–2011) in a recent multi-model ensemble of climate model simulations prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5). With only a single verification time, the verification is over the spatial dimension. The local temperature trends appear to be reliable. However, when the global mean climate response is factored out, the ensemble is overconfident: the observed trend is outside the range of modelled trends in many more regions than would be expected by the model estimate of natural variability and model spread. Precipitation trends are overconfident for all trend definitions. This implies that for near-term local climate forecasts the CMIP5 ensemble cannot simply be used as a reliable probabilistic forecast.

Beta event-related desynchronization as an index of individual differences in processing human facial expression: further investigations of autistic traits in typically developing adults

The human mirror neuron system (hMNS) has been associated with various forms of social cognition and affective processing including vicarious experience. It has also been proposed that a faulty hMNS may underlie some of the deficits seen in the autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). In the present study we set out to investigate whether emotional facial expressions could modulate a putative EEG index of hMNS activation (mu suppression) and if so, would this differ according to the individual level of autistic traits [high versus low Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ) score]. Participants were presented with 3 s films of actors opening and closing their hands (classic hMNS mu-suppression protocol) while simultaneously wearing happy, angry, or neutral expressions. Mu-suppression was measured in the alpha and low beta bands. The low AQ group displayed greater low beta event-related desynchronization (ERD) to both angry and neutral expressions. The high AQ group displayed greater low beta ERD to angry than to happy expressions. There was also significantly more low beta ERD to happy faces for the low than for the high AQ group. In conclusion, an interesting interaction between AQ group and emotional expression revealed that hMNS activation can be modulated by emotional facial expressions and that this is differentiated according to individual differences in the level of autistic traits. The EEG index of hMNS activation (mu suppression) seems to be a sensitive measure of the variability in facial processing in typically developing individuals with high and low self-reported traits of autism.

Six new loci associated with body mass index highlight a neuronal influence on body weight regulation

Common variants at only two loci, FTO and MC4R, have been reproducibly associated with body mass index (BMI) in humans. To identify additional loci, we conducted meta-analysis of 15 genome-wide association studies for BMI (n > 32,000) and followed up top signals in 14 additional cohorts (n > 59,000). We strongly confirm FTO and MC4R and identify six additional loci (P < 5 x 10(-8)): TMEM18, KCTD15, GNPDA2, SH2B1, MTCH2 and NEGR1 (where a 45-kb deletion polymorphism is a candidate causal variant). Several of the likely causal genes are highly expressed or known to act in the central nervous system (CNS), emphasizing, as in rare monogenic forms of obesity, the role of the CNS in predisposition to obesity.

Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion

Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.

Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion

Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.

Cost function for sub-agent elements in multi-agent energy management system

Distributed generation plays a key role in reducing CO2 emissions and losses in transmission of power. However, due to the nature of renewable resources, distributed generation requires suitable control strategies to assure reliability and optimality for the grid. Multi-agent systems are perfect candidates for providing distributed control of distributed generation stations as well as providing reliability and flexibility for the grid integration. The proposed multi-agent energy management system consists of single-type agents who control one or more gird entities, which are represented as generic sub-agent elements. The agent applies one control algorithm across all elements and uses a cost function to evaluate the suitability of the element as a supplier. The behavior set by the agent's user defines which parameters of an element have greater weight in the cost function, which allows the user to specify the preference on suppliers dynamically. This study shows the ability of the multi-agent energy management system to select suppliers according to the selection behavior given by the user. The optimality of the supplier for the required demand is ensured by the cost function based on the parameters of the element.

A real-time measurement system for long-life flood monitoring and warning applications

A flood warning system incorporates telemetered rainfall and flow/water level data measured at various locations in the catchment area. Real-time accurate data collection is required for this use, and sensor networks improve the system capabilities. However, existing sensor nodes struggle to satisfy the hydrological requirements in terms of autonomy, sensor hardware compatibility, reliability and long-range communication. We describe the design and development of a real-time measurement system for flood monitoring, and its deployment in a flash-flood prone 650 km2 semiarid watershed in Southern Spain. A developed low-power and long-range communication device, so-called DatalogV1, provides automatic data gathering and reliable transmission. DatalogV1 incorporates self-monitoring for adapting measurement schedules for consumption management and to capture events of interest. Two tests are used to assess the success of the development. The results show an autonomous and robust monitoring system for long-term collection of water level data in many sparse locations during flood events.

Reform of the planning system in Northern Ireland: your chance to influence change

Consultation on the Reform of the Planning System in Northern Ireland commenced on 6 July 2009 with the publication of the long awaited proposals paper: 'Reform of the Planning System in Northern Ireland: Your chance to influence change'. A 12 week consultation period followed during which time a series of consultation roadshow events were undertaken. This report is an account of that strand of the reform consultation and the discussions that took place at the roadshows during a three week period in September 2009. The roadshow events formed the central part in a process of encouraging engagement and response to the Reform Proposals before the closing date of 2 October 2009. They were organised and facilitated by a team of event managers and independent planners who, together with key Planning Service personnel, attended a mixture of day and evening events in each of the new eleven council areas to hear the views and opinions of those who came along. Aside from being publicly advertised, over 1,500 invitations (written and e-invites) were issued to a wide range of sectors, including the business community,environmentalists, councils, community and voluntary groups and other organisations, and 1,000 fliers were issued to libraries, leisure centres, council offices and civic centres. In total almost 500 people took up the invitation and came along to one or more of the events.

A novel satellite-based ocean monitoring system for Mexico

To analyze patterns in marine productivity, harmful algal blooms, thermal stress in coral reefs, and oceanographic processes, optical and biophysical marine parameters, such as sea surface temperature, and ocean color products, such as chlorophyll-a concentration, diffuse attenuation coefficient, total suspended matter concentration, chlorophyll fluorescence line height, and remote sensing reflectance, are required. In this paper we present a novel automatic Satellite-based Ocean Monitoring System (SATMO) developed to provide, in near real-time, continuous spatial data sets of the above-mentioned variables for marine-coastal ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico, northeastern Pacific Ocean, and western Caribbean Sea, with 1 km spatial resolution. The products are obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images received at the Direct Readout Ground Station (located at CONABIO) after each overpass of the Aqua and Terra satellites. In addition, at the end of each week and month the system provides composite images for several ocean products, as well as weekly and monthly anomaly composites for chlorophyll-a concentration and sea surface temperature. These anomaly data are reported for the first time for the study region and represent valuable information for analyzing time series of ocean color data for the study of coastal and marine ecosystems in Mexico, Central America, and the western Caribbean.

The plasticity of the mirror system: how reward learning modulates cortical motor simulation of others

Cortical motor simulation supports the understanding of others' actions and intentions. This mechanism is thought to rely on the mirror neuron system (MNS), a brain network that is active both during action execution and observation. Indirect evidence suggests that alpha/beta suppression, an electroencephalographic (EEG) index of MNS activity, is modulated by reward. In this study we aimed to test the plasticity of the MNS by directly investigating the link between alpha/beta suppression and reward. 40 individuals from a general population sample took part in an evaluative conditioning experiment, where different neutral faces were associated with high or low reward values. In the test phase, EEG was recorded while participants viewed videoclips of happy expressions made by the conditioned faces. Alpha/beta suppression (identified using event-related desynchronisation of specific independent components) in response to rewarding faces was found to be greater than for non-rewarding faces. This result provides a mechanistic insight into the plasticity of the MNS and, more generally, into the role of reward in modulating physiological responses linked to empathy.