Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches

This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about six to nine years. Recent multi-model results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialized multi-model ensemble decadal hindcasts than in single model results, with multi-model initialized predictions for near term climate showing somewhat less global warming than uninitialized simulations. Some decadal hindcasts have shown statistically reliable predictions of surface temperature over various land and ocean regions for lead times of up to 6-9 years, but this needs to be investigated in a wider set of models. As in the early days of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction, improvements to models will reduce the need for bias adjustment, and increase the reliability, and thus usefulness, of decadal climate predictions in the future.

Sutton Common (South Yorkshire): a monument at risk in England’s wetlands

The work on the Iron Age site at Sutton Common, South Yorkshire, UK, has provided both inspiration and a testing ground for the development of English Heritage's strategy for wetlands. This paper concentrates on the non-technical aspects of the developing conservation management of the site, which includes in situ preservation of selected waterlogged remains, and summarises the main results of the Monuments at Risk in England's Wetlands project, the new strategy for which it formed the basis

Science-based conservation and management in wetland archaeology: the example of Sutton Common, UK

This paper addresses the perception of different wetlands in and around the Humber estuary in the Bronze Age. Combining past and current research, it will be argued that the perception of intertidal wetlands was nearly diametrically opposed to the perception of riverine floodplains. This contrasting perception is reflected in the material culture of the Bronze Age, and may be explained through the particular manner in which landscapes changed following marine transgressions. This work was largely undertaken within the framework of the Humber Wetlands Survey, an integrated archaeological and palaeoenvironmental research programme funded by English Heritage since 1992

The seaweed flora of Admiralty Bay, King George Island, Antarctic

Admiralty Bay is located on the western side of King George Island. Although several research teams of different nationalities have carried out surveys in the region for decades, there are only two publications dealing with the seaweed flora of the bay. Here, we report on a taxonomic survey of the seaweeds we collected during the 25th Brazilian Antarctic Expedition (December 2006/November 2007). We discovered 42 species (21 Rhodophyta, 14 Phaeophyceae, and 7 Chlorophyta), corresponding to an increase of about 31% in the seaweed biodiversity hitherto known for the region. Considering that the Antarctic Peninsula, adjacent to King George Island seems to be one of the most rapidly warming spots on the planet, this kind of survey may provide a valuable tool for detecting eventual changes in seaweed biodiversity.

George Sand : une femme moderne ?

A travers des œuvres de George Sand (1804-1876), le mémoire étudie la littérature champêtre, l'exotisme et l’écriture féminine. Dans un deuxième temps il montre les relations avec des personnes célèbres qui ont influencé l’auteur et les correspondances entretenues entre George Sand et elles. Enfin le mémoire se termine par une étude de la femme moderne qu'était George Sand.