974 resultados para Survival Analysis
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BACKGROUND: Pediatric truncal vascular injuries occur infrequently and have a reported mortality rate of 30% to 50%. This report examines the demographics, mechanisms of injury, associated trauma, and outcome of patients presenting for the past 10 years at a single institution with truncal vascular injuries. METHODS: A retrospective review (1997-2006) of a pediatric trauma registry at a single institution was undertaken. RESULTS: Seventy-five truncal vascular injuries occurred in 57 patients (age, 12 +/- 3 years); the injury mechanisms were penetrating in 37%. Concomitant injuries occurred with 76%, 62%, and 43% of abdominal, thoracic, and neck vascular injuries, respectively. Nonvascular complications occurred more frequently in patients with abdominal vascular injuries who were hemodynamically unstable on presentation. All patients with thoracic vascular injuries presenting with hemodynamic instability died. In patients with neck vascular injuries, 1 of 2 patients who were hemodynamically unstable died, compared to 1 of 12 patients who died in those who presented hemodynamically stable. Overall survival was 75%. CONCLUSIONS: Survival and complications of pediatric truncal vascular injury are related to hemodynamic status at the time of presentation. Associated injuries are higher with trauma involving the abdomen.
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BACKGROUND: Decisions regarding whether to administer intensive care to extremely premature infants are often based on gestational age alone. However, other factors also affect the prognosis for these patients. METHODS: We prospectively studied a cohort of 4446 infants born at 22 to 25 weeks' gestation (determined on the basis of the best obstetrical estimate) in the Neonatal Research Network of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development to relate risk factors assessable at or before birth to the likelihood of survival, survival without profound neurodevelopmental impairment, and survival without neurodevelopmental impairment at a corrected age of 18 to 22 months. RESULTS: Among study infants, 3702 (83%) received intensive care in the form of mechanical ventilation. Among the 4192 study infants (94%) for whom outcomes were determined at 18 to 22 months, 49% died, 61% died or had profound impairment, and 73% died or had impairment. In multivariable analyses of infants who received intensive care, exposure to antenatal corticosteroids, female sex, singleton birth, and higher birth weight (per each 100-g increment) were each associated with reductions in the risk of death and the risk of death or profound or any neurodevelopmental impairment; these reductions were similar to those associated with a 1-week increase in gestational age. At the same estimated likelihood of a favorable outcome, girls were less likely than boys to receive intensive care. The outcomes for infants who underwent ventilation were better predicted with the use of the above factors than with use of gestational age alone. CONCLUSIONS: The likelihood of a favorable outcome with intensive care can be better estimated by consideration of four factors in addition to gestational age: sex, exposure or nonexposure to antenatal corticosteroids, whether single or multiple birth, and birth weight. (ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00063063 [ClinicalTrials.gov] and NCT00009633 [ClinicalTrials.gov].).
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This dissertation explores phase I dose-finding designs in cancer trials from three perspectives: the alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules, a design based on a time-to-dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) model, and a design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model. We list alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules and perform a simulation study for the intra-rule and inter-rule comparisons based on two statistical models to identify the most appropriate rule under certain scenarios. We provide evidence that all the Bayesian rules outperform the traditional ``3+3'' design in the allocation of patients and selection of the maximum tolerated dose. The design based on a time-to-DLT model uses patients' DLT information over multiple treatment cycles in estimating the probability of DLT at the end of treatment cycle 1. Dose-escalation decisions are made whenever a cycle-1 DLT occurs, or two months after the previous check point. Compared to the design based on a logistic regression model, the new design shows more safety benefits for trials in which more late-onset toxicities are expected. As a trade-off, the new design requires more patients on average. The design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model has three important attributes: (1) Toxicities are categorized over a distribution of severity levels, (2) Early toxicity may inform dose escalation, and (3) No suspension is required between accrual cohorts. The proposed model accounts for the difference in the importance of the toxicity severity levels and for transitions between toxicity levels. We compare the operating characteristics of the proposed design with those from a similar design based on a fully-evaluated model that directly models the maximum observed toxicity level within the patients' entire assessment window. We describe settings in which, under comparable power, the proposed design shortens the trial. The proposed design offers more benefit compared to the alternative design as patient accrual becomes slower.
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There is growing support for the theory that an interaction between the immune and reproductive/endocrine systems underlies the pathogenesis of autoimmune rheumatic diseases. Most of the recent evidence derives from studies of sex hormones and pregnancy in women with systemic lupus. Other than an ameliorative effect of pregnancy, little is known about reproductive factors in relation to rheumatoid arthritis. To elucidate the relationship, a population-based retrospective study was undertaken. Included were 378 female residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis between 1950 and 1982 (cases) and 325 arthritis-free, married female controls matched to the 324 married cases on birth-year, age at first marriage, and duration of Olmsted County residency. Information of reproductive factors was extracted from the medical records system maintained by the Mayo Clinic.^ Cases had lower fertility rates compared with the female population of Minnesota (rate ratio = 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI)= 0.80-0.92). Fertility was significantly reduced even prior to the onset of rheumatoid factor positive arthritis. Restricting the comparison to married Olmsted County residents did not alter the results. Further adjustments for time not at risk of conception using survival analysis and proportional hazards modeling only intensified the fertility reduction in the married cases compared with controls. Nulligravidity was more common among cases than controls (odds ratio = 3.16, CI = 1.61-6.20). Independent of fertility, pregnancy had a protective effect against rheumatoid arthritis (odds ratio = 0.31, CI = 0.11-0.89), which was dramatically reversed in the 12 months postpartum (odds ratio = 4.67, CI = 1.50-14.47). Cases were younger at menopause than controls (p $<$ 0.01).^ Small but statistically insignificant associations were observed between rheumatoid arthritis and the following factors: increased frequency of complaints to a physician of infertility; increased frequency of spontaneous abortion, premature birth, and congenital malformations following arthritis onset; and increased prevalence of menopause at arthritis onset. Cases did not differ from controls on age at menarche, duration of pregnancy, or birth weight.^ The findings provide further support for the involvement of the reproductive/endocrine systems in the pathogenesis of autoimmune rheumatic disease. The search for biological mechanisms should be intensified. ^
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In several studies of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for persons with human immunodeficiency virus infection, investigators have reported that there has been a higher rate of loss to follow-up (LTFU) among patients initiating ART in recent years than among patients who initiated ART during earlier time periods. This finding is frequently interpreted as reflecting deterioration of patient retention in the face of increasing patient loads. However, in this paper we demonstrate by simulation that transient gaps in follow-up could lead to bias when standard survival analysis techniques are applied. We created a simulated cohort of patients with different dates of ART initiation. Rates of ART interruption, ART resumption, and mortality were assumed to remain constant over time, but when we applied a standard definition of LTFU, the simulated probability of being classified LTFU at a particular ART duration was substantially higher in recently enrolled cohorts. This suggests that much of the apparent trend towards increased LTFU may be attributed to bias caused by transient interruptions in care. Alternative statistical techniques need to be used when analyzing predictors of LTFU-for example, using "prospective" definitions of LTFU in place of "retrospective" definitions. Similar considerations may apply when analyzing predictors of LTFU from treatment programs for other chronic diseases.
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BACKGROUND The Perceval (Sorin Group, Milan, Italy) is a self-anchoring sutureless aortic valve prosthesis. We report the short- to midterm results of combined aortic valve replacement (AVR) with concomitant procedures in elderly patients undergoing operation as part of 3 consecutive prospective multicenter European studies. METHODS From April 2007 to February 2013, 243 patients (mean age, 79.7 ± 5.1 years; female patients, 61%; median EuroSCORE, 9%) underwent AVR with concomitant procedures. The concomitant procedures were coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) (182 cases), septal myectomy (21 cases), CABG + other procedures (18 cases), and 22 other procedures. Primary and secondary end points included implant feasibility and safety (for mortality and morbidity) and efficacy (New York Heart Association [NYHA] class improvement and hemodynamic results) of the prosthesis at the different follow-up periods. Data were expressed as mean ± standard deviation. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed for survival analysis. RESULTS Mean aortic cross-clamp and extracorporeal circulation (ECC) times were 50.7 ± 22.8 minutes and 78.9 ± 32.3 minutes, respectively. Thirty-day mortality was 2.1%. Mean postoperative gradient and effective orifice area were 10.1 ± 4.7 mm Hg and 1.5 ± 0.4 cm(2) and 8.9 ± 5.6 mm Hg and 1.6 ± 0.4 cm(2), respectively, at 1 year. There were early explantations, 4 of which resulted from paravalvular leaks. One additional valve explantation resulted from aortic root bleeding, probably caused by excessively extensive decalcification. In the late period, there was 1 mild paravalvular leak and no intravalvular insufficiency. No migration, dislodgement, or degeneration of the valve occurred during follow-up. Median follow-up was 444 days. CONCLUSIONS These trials confirm the safety and efficacy of the Perceval sutureless aortic valve, especially in elderly patients requiring AVR + concomitant procedures. In this patient group, sutureless valves may be advantageous compared to transcatheter valve implantations as concomitant procedures other than percutaneous coronary artery angioplasty are not always possible in the latter.
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INTRODUCTION As the importance of systematic review (SR) conclusions relies upon the scientific rigor of methods and the currency of evidence, we aimed to investigate the currency of orthodontic SRs using as proxy the time from the initial search to publication. Additionally, SR information regarding reporting guidelines, registration, and literature searches were recorded when available. MATERIALS AND METHODS A systematic PubMed search was carried out using the Clinical Queries page to identify orthodontic SRs cited between 1 January 2008 and 7 November 2013. Data related to reporting guidelines, review registration, dates of review processing, literature search, and abstract reporting were retrieved and classified by journal type. Survival analysis was used to assess the time to reach predefined manuscript stages for orthodontic and non-orthodontic journals. RESULTS One hundred twenty seven of the originally identified 585 SRs were considered eligible. The median interval from search until publication was 13.2 months (interquartile range: IQR = 9.7 months) irrespective of the journal type. There was evidence (P = 0.05) that SRs published by non-orthodontic journals appeared in PubMed faster than in orthodontic journals (non-orthodontic: median = 6.5 months; IQR = 5.7 months; orthodontic: median = 10.2 months; IQR = 5.6 months) from submission to publication and from acceptance to publication (non-orthodontic: median = 1.5 months; IQR = 2.4 months; orthodontic: median = 6.0 months; IQR = 6.2 months; P < 0.001). More than half of these SRs did not cite adherence to any reporting guidelines, whereas all but five studies were not prospectively registered. Search of unpublished research was undertaken in approximately 21 per cent and 29 per cent of the SRs published in non-orthodontic and orthodontic periodicals, respectively. CONCLUSIONS This study indicates that SR users should be aware that median time for orthodontic SRs from search to publication is 13.2 months. SRs published in non-orthodontic journals are likely to be more current in terms of submission until time to publication and acceptance until time to publication compared with those published in orthodontic journals.
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Background: ASSIP is a manualized brief therapy based on a model of suicide as goal-directed action, aimed at establishing a therapeutic alliance in a patient-oriented, collaborative approach. The main goals of the three-session program ASSIP are for patients to understand, from an observer’s position, patterns leading to a suicidal crisis, recognize triggers and warning signs, and to establish individual safety strategies for future suicidal crises. An ongoing therapeutic support is provided with regular letters over 24 months. Method: The study was conducted in a naturalistic setting. 120 Patients were randomly assigned to an intervention group (60 participants) treated with ASSIP combined with follow-up contact through letters, and a control group (60 participants) receiving a single session of clinical assessment. Both groups had treatment as usual. Patients completed a set of psychosocial and clinical questionnaires every six months over a period of 24 months. Results: In the ASSIP group 5 patients made a total of 5 reattempts, compared to 15 patients with 41 reattempts in the control group. The survival analysis yielded a significant difference with a Wald Chi2 of .000003. The ASSIP group had significantly lower suicidal ideation and fewer days of inpatient treatment compared to the control group. Higher scores in the Penn Helping Alliance Questionnaire were associated with lower suicidal ideation during follow-up. Conclusions: ASSIP is a highly effective brief therapy for patients with recent suicide attempts. Forming a strong therapeutic alliance is considered to be a major factor for outcome. ASSIP can be used with minimal training by experienced therapists. An English version of the manual will be published in May 2015.
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AIM VE1 is a monoclonal antibody detecting mutant BRAFV600E protein by immunohistochemistry. Here we aim to determine the inter-observer agreement and concordance of VE1 with mutational status, investigate heterogeneity in colorectal cancers and metastases and determine the prognostic effect of VE1 in colorectal cancer patients. METHODS Concordance of VE1 with mutational status and inter-observer agreement were tested on a pilot cohort of colorectal cancers (n = 34), melanomas (n = 23) and thyroid cancers (n = 8). Two prognostic cohorts were evaluated (n = 259, Cohort 1 and n = 226, Cohort 2) by multiple-punch tissue microarrays. VE1 staining on preoperative biopsies (n = 118 patients) was compared to expression in resections. Primary tumors and metastases from 13 patients were tested for VE1 heterogeneity using a tissue microarray generated from all available blocks (n = 100 blocks). RESULTS Inter-observer agreement was 100% (kappa = 1.0). Concordance between VE1 and V600E mutation was 98.5%. Cohort 1: VE1 positivity (seen in 13.5%) was associated with older age (p = 0.0175) and MLH1 deficiency (p < 0.0001). Cohort 2: VE1 positivity (seen in 12.8%) was associated with female gender (p = 0.0016), right-sided tumor location (p < 0.0001), higher tumor grade (p < 0.0001) and mismatch repair (MMR)-deficiency (p < 0.0001). In survival analysis, MMR status and postoperative therapy were identified as possible confounding factors. Adjusting for these features, VE1 was an unfavorable prognostic factor. Preoperative biopsy staining matched resections in all cases except one. No heterogeneity was found across any primary/metastatic tumor blocks. CONCLUSION VE1 is highly concordant for V600E and homogeneously expressed suggesting staining can be analysed on resection specimens, preoperative biopsies, metastatic lesions and tissue microarrays.
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BACKGROUND Most guidelines recommend at least 2-cm excision margin for melanomas thicker than 2 mm. OBJECTIVE We evaluated whether 1- or 2-cm excision margins for melanoma (>2 mm) result in different outcomes. METHODS This is a retrospective cohort study on patients with melanomas (>2 mm) who underwent tumor excision with 1-cm (228 patients) or 2-cm (97 patients) margins to investigate presence of local recurrences, locoregional and distant metastases, and disease-free and overall survival. RESULTS In all, 325 patients with mean age of 61.84 years and Breslow thickness of 4.36 mm were considered for the study with a median follow-up of 1852 days (1995-2012). There was no significant difference in the frequency of locoregional and distant metastasis between the 2 groups (P = .311 and .571). The survival analysis showed no differences for disease-free (P = .800; hazard ratio 0.948; 95% confidence interval 0.627-1.433) and overall (P = .951; hazard ratio 1.018; 95% confidence interval 0.575-1.803) survival. LIMITATIONS The study was not prospectively randomized. CONCLUSIONS Our study did not show any significant differences in important outcome parameters such as local or distant metastases and overall survival. A prospective study testing 1- versus 2-cm excision margin is warranted.
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INTRODUCTION The aim of the study was to identify the appropriate level of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) in older patients (>70 years) with high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) to achieve survival benefit following radical prostatectomy (RP). METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 1008 older patients (>70 years) who underwent RP with pelvic lymph node dissection for high-risk prostate cancer (preoperative prostate-specific antigen >20 ng/mL or clinical stage ≥T2c or Gleason ≥8) from 14 tertiary institutions between 1988 and 2014. The study population was further grouped into CCI < 2 and ≥2 for analysis. Survival rate for each group was estimated with Kaplan-Meier method and competitive risk Fine-Gray regression to estimate the best explanatory multivariable model. Area under the curve (AUC) and Akaike information criterion were used to identify ideal 'Cut off' for CCI. RESULTS The clinical and cancer characteristics were similar between the two groups. Comparison of the survival analysis using the Kaplan-Meier curve between two groups for non-cancer death and survival estimations for 5 and 10 years shows significant worst outcomes for patients with CCI ≥ 2. In multivariate model to decide the appropriate CCI cut-off point, we found CCI 2 has better AUC and p value in log rank test. CONCLUSION Older patients with fewer comorbidities harboring high-risk PCa appears to benefit from RP. Sicker patients are more likely to die due to non-prostate cancer-related causes and are less likely to benefit from RP.
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Hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) is an autosomal dominant disease caused by germline mutations in DNA mismatch repair(MMR) genes. The nucleotide excision repair(NER) pathway plays a very important role in cancer development. We systematically studied interactions between NER and MMR genes to identify NER gene single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) risk factors that modify the effect of MMR mutations on risk for cancer in HNPCC. We analyzed data from polymorphisms in 10 NER genes that had been genotyped in HNPCC patients that carry MSH2 and MLH1 gene mutations. The influence of the NER gene SNPs on time to onset of colorectal cancer (CRC) was assessed using survival analysis and a semiparametric proportional hazard model. We found the median age of onset for CRC among MMR mutation carriers with the ERCC1 mutation was 3.9 years earlier than patients with wildtype ERCC1(median 47.7 vs 51.6, log-rank test p=0.035). The influence of Rad23B A249V SNP on age of onset of HNPCC is age dependent (likelihood ratio test p=0.0056). Interestingly, using the likelihood ratio test, we also found evidence of genetic interactions between the MMR gene mutations and SNPs in ERCC1 gene(C8092A) and XPG/ERCC5 gene(D1104H) with p-values of 0.004 and 0.042, respectively. An assessment using tree structured survival analysis (TSSA) showed distinct gene interactions in MLH1 mutation carriers and MSH2 mutation carriers. ERCC1 SNP genotypes greatly modified the age onset of HNPCC in MSH2 mutation carriers, while no effect was detected in MLH1 mutation carriers. Given the NER genes in this study play different roles in NER pathway, they may have distinct influences on the development of HNPCC. The findings of this study are very important for elucidation of the molecular mechanism of colon cancer development and for understanding why some mutation carriers of the MSH2 and MLH1 gene develop CRC early and others never develop CRC. Overall, the findings also have important implications for the development of early detection strategies and prevention as well as understanding the mechanism of colorectal carcinogenesis in HNPCC. ^
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Type II diabetes mellitus is a growing problem worldwide and although its association with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality is well known, its role in the development of cancer is now being further elucidated. Recently, there has been increasing evidence that not only are diabetics more susceptible towards development of particular types of cancer, but also have worse oncologic outcomes. This retrospective chart review investigates whether diabetics with colon cancer have a poorer prognosis than their nondiabetic counterparts. Patients with high risk Stage II and Stage III colon cancer who were diagnosed and/or treated at The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center from 1/1/2000 till 12/1/2004 were included in our study. We carried out a survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier method and multivariable analysis to assess differences in outcomes of the two population groups. We found that the decreased overall survival in diabetics did not reach statistical significance but this could be due to a lower event rate in our study. Larger studies are required to investigate this further. ^
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Dialysis patients are at high risk for hepatitis B infection, which is a serious but preventable disease. Prevention strategies include the administration of the hepatitis B vaccine. Dialysis patients have been noted to have a poor immune response to the vaccine and lose immunity more rapidly. The long term immunogenicity of the hepatitis B vaccine has not been well defined in pediatric dialysis patients especially if administered during infancy as a routine childhood immunization.^ Purpose. The aim of this study was to determine the median duration of hepatitis B immunity and to study the effect of vaccination timing and other cofactors on the duration of hepatitis B immunity in pediatric dialysis patients.^ Methods. Duration of hepatitis B immunity was determined by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Comparison of stratified survival analysis was performed using log-rank analysis. Multivariate analysis by Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios for the effect of timing of vaccine administration and other covariates on the duration of hepatitis B immunity.^ Results. 193 patients (163 incident patients) had complete data available for analysis. Mean age was 11.2±5.8 years and mean ESRD duration was 59.3±97.8 months. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the total median overall duration of immunity (since the time of the primary vaccine series) was 112.7 months (95% CI: 96.6, 124.4), whereas the median overall duration of immunity for incident patients was 106.3 months (95% CI: 93.93, 124.44). Incident patients had a median dialysis duration of hepatitis B immunity equal to 37.1 months (95% CI: 24.16, 72.26). Multivariate adjusted analysis showed that there was a significant difference between patients based on the timing of hepatitis B vaccination administration (p<0.001). Patients immunized after the start of dialysis had a hazard ratio of 6.13 (2.87, 13.08) for loss of hepatitis B immunity compared to patients immunized as infants (p<0.001).^ Conclusion. This study confirms that patients immunized after dialysis onset have an overall shorter duration of hepatitis B immunity as measured by hepatitis B antibody titers and after the start of dialysis, protective antibody titer levels in pediatric dialysis patients wane rapidly compared to healthy children.^
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Introduction: HIV-associated malignancies such as Kaposi’s sarcoma and Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma occur in children and usually lead to significant morbidity and mortality. No studies have been done to establish prevalence and outcome of these malignancies in children in a hospital setting in Uganda. ^ Research question: What proportion of children attending the Baylor-Uganda COE present with HIV-associated malignancies and what are the characteristics and outcome of these malignancies? The objective was to determine the prevalence, associated factors and outcome of HIV-associated malignancies among children attending the Baylor-Uganda Clinic in Kampala, Uganda. Study Design: This was a retrospective case series involving records review of patients who presented to the Baylor-Clinic between January 2004 and December 2008. Study Setting: The Baylor-Uganda Clinic, where I worked as a physician before coming to Houston, is a well funded, well staffed; Pediatric HIV clinic located in Mulago Hospital, Kampala, Uganda and is affiliated to Makerere University Medical School. Study Participants: Medical charts of patients aged 6 weeks to 18 years who enrolled for care at the clinic during the years 2004 to 2008 were retrieved for data abstraction. Selection Criteria: Study participants had to be patients of Baylor-Uganda seen during the study period; they had to be aged 6 weeks to 18 years; and had to be HIV positive. Patients with incomplete data or whose malignancies were not confirmed by histology were excluded. Study Variables: Data on patient’s age, sex, diagnosis, type of malignancy, anatomic location of the malignancy; pathology report, baseline laboratory results and outcome of treatment, were abstracted. Data Analysis: Cross tabulation to determine associations between variables using Pearson’s chi square at 95% level of significance was done. Proportions of malignancies among different groups were determined. In addition, Kaplan Meier survival analysis and comparison of survival distributions using the log-rank test was done. Change in CD4 percentages from baseline was assessed with the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Results: The proportion of children with malignancies during the study period was found to be 1.65%. Only 2 malignancies: Kaposi’s sarcoma and Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma were found. 90% of the malignancies were Kaposi’s sarcoma. Lymph node involvement in children with Kaposi’s sarcoma was common, but the worst prognosis was seen with visceral involvement. Deaths during follow-up were seen in the first few weeks to months. Upon starting treatment the CD4 cell percentage increased significantly from a baseline median of 6% to 14% at 6 months and 15.8% at 12 months of follow-up.^