How well does the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System predict blocking?

Forecasting atmospheric blocking is one of the main problems facing medium-range weather forecasters in the extratropics. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) provides an excellent basis for medium-range forecasting as it provides a number of different possible realizations of the meteorological future. This ensemble of forecasts attempts to account for uncertainties in both the initial conditions and the model formulation. Since 18 July 2000, routine output from the EPS has included the field of potential temperature on the potential vorticity (PV) D 2 PV units (PVU) surface, the dynamical tropopause. This has enabled the objective identification of blocking using an index based on the reversal of the meridional potential-temperature gradient. A year of EPS probability forecasts of Euro-Atlantic and Pacific blocking have been produced and are assessed in this paper, concentrating on the Euro-Atlantic sector. Standard verification techniques such as Brier scores, Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and reliability diagrams are used. It is shown that Euro-Atlantic sector-blocking forecasts are skilful relative to climatology out to 10 days, and are more skilful than the deterministic control forecast at all lead times. The EPS is also more skilful than a probabilistic version of this deterministic forecast, though the difference is smaller. In addition, it is shown that the onset of a sector-blocking episode is less well predicted than its decay. As the lead time increases, the probability forecasts tend towards a model climatology with slightly less blocking than is seen in the real atmosphere. This small under-forecasting bias in the blocking forecasts is possibly related to a westerly bias in the ECMWF model. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

The impact of a closed-loop electronic prescribing and administration system on prescribing errors, administration errors and staff time: a before-and-after study

Objectives: To assess the impact of a closed-loop electronic prescribing, automated dispensing, barcode patient identification and electronic medication administration record (EMAR) system on prescribing and administration errors, confirmation of patient identity before administration, and staff time. Design, setting and participants: Before-and-after study in a surgical ward of a teaching hospital, involving patients and staff of that ward. Intervention: Closed-loop electronic prescribing, automated dispensing, barcode patient identification and EMAR system. Main outcome measures: Percentage of new medication orders with a prescribing error, percentage of doses with medication administration errors (MAEs) and percentage given without checking patient identity. Time spent prescribing and providing a ward pharmacy service. Nursing time on medication tasks. Results: Prescribing errors were identified in 3.8% of 2450 medication orders pre-intervention and 2.0% of 2353 orders afterwards (p<0.001; χ2 test). MAEs occurred in 7.0% of 1473 non-intravenous doses pre-intervention and 4.3% of 1139 afterwards (p = 0.005; χ2 test). Patient identity was not checked for 82.6% of 1344 doses pre-intervention and 18.9% of 1291 afterwards (p<0.001; χ2 test). Medical staff required 15 s to prescribe a regular inpatient drug pre-intervention and 39 s afterwards (p = 0.03; t test). Time spent providing a ward pharmacy service increased from 68 min to 98 min each weekday (p = 0.001; t test); 22% of drug charts were unavailable pre-intervention. Time per drug administration round decreased from 50 min to 40 min (p = 0.006; t test); nursing time on medication tasks outside of drug rounds increased from 21.1% to 28.7% (p = 0.006; χ2 test). Conclusions: A closed-loop electronic prescribing, dispensing and barcode patient identification system reduced prescribing errors and MAEs, and increased confirmation of patient identity before administration. Time spent on medication-related tasks increased.

Identification of a novel mammalian post-translational modification, phosphocholine, on placental secretory polypeptides

Placental neurokinin B appears to be post-translationally modified by phosphocholine (PC) attached to the aspartyl side chain at residue 4 of the mature peptide. Corticotrophin releasing factor (CRF) was found to be expressed by the rat placenta with the main secreted forms being phosphocholinated proCRF+/- one or two polysaccharide moieties. A combination of high-pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC) and two-site immunometric analysis suggested that PC was also attached to the placental precursors of adrenocorticotrophin, hemokinin, activin and follistatin. However, the fully processed forms of rat placental activin and CRF were free of PC. Formerly, the parasitic filarial nematodes have used PC as a post-translational modification, attached via the polysaccharicle moiety of certain secretory glycoproteins to attenuate the host immune system allowing parasite survival, but it is the PC group itself which endows the carrier with the biological activity. The fact that treatment of proCRF peptides with phospholipase C but not endoglycosidase destroyed PC immunoreactivity suggested a simpler mode of attachment of PC to placental peptides than that used by nematodes. Thus, it is possible that by analogy the placenta uses its secreted phosphocholinated hormones to modulate the mother's immune system and help protect the placenta from rejection.

Identification of a serine protease involved with the regulation of adrenal growth

The adrenal cortex is a dynamic organ in which the cells of the outer cortex continually divide. It is well known that this cellular proliferation is dependent on constant stimulation from peptides derived from the ACTH precursor pro-opiomelanocortin (POMC) because disruption of pituitary corticotroph function results in rapid atrophy of the gland. Previous results from our laboratory have suggested that the adrenal mitogen is a fragment derived from the N-terminal of POMC not containing the gamma-MSH sequence. Because such a peptide is not generated during processing of POMC in the pituitary, we proposed that the mitogen is generated from circulating pro-gamma-MSH by an adrenal protease. Using degenerate oligonucleotides, we identified a secreted serine protease expressed by the adrenal gland that we named adrenal secretory protease (ASP). In the adrenal cortex, expression of ASP is limited to the outer zona glomerulosa/fasciculata, the region where cortical cells are believed to be derived, and is significantly up-regulated during compensatory growth. Y1 adrenocortical cells transfected with a vector expressing an antisense RNA (and thus having reduced levels of endogenous ASP) were found to grow slower than sense controls while also losing their ability to utilize exogenous pro-gamma-MSH in the media supporting a role for ASP in adrenal growth. Digestion of an N-POMC peptide substrate encompassing the residues around the dibasic cleavage site at positions 49/50 with affinity-purified ASP showed cleavage not to occur at the dibasic site but two residues downstream leading us to propose the identity of the adrenal mitogen to be N-POMC (1-52).

Identification of novel expressed sequences, up-regulated in the leucocytes of chronic fatigue syndrome patients

BACKGROUND: Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) is an increasing medical phenomenon of unknown aetiology leading to high levels of chronic morbidity. Of the many hypotheses that purport to explain this disease, immune system activation, as a central feature, has remained prominent but unsubstantiated. Supporting this, a number of important cytokines have previously been shown to be over-expressed in disease subjects. The diagnosis of CFS is highly problematic since no biological markers specific to this disease have been identified. The discovery of genes relating to this condition is an important goal in seeking to correctly categorize and understand this complex syndrome. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to screen for changes in gene expression in the lymphocytes of CFS patients. METHODS: 'Differential Display' is a method for comparing mRNA populations for the induction or suppression of genes. In this technique, mRNA populations from control and test subjects can be 'displayed' by gel electrophoresis and screened for differing banding patterns. These differences are indicative of altered gene expression between samples, and the genes that correspond to these bands can be cloned and identified. Differential display has been used to compare expression levels between four control subjects and seven CFS patients. RESULTS: Twelve short expressed sequence tags have been identified that were over-expressed in lymphocytes from CFS patients. Two of these correspond to cathepsin C and MAIL1 - genes known to be upregulated in activated lymphocytes. The expression level of seven of the differentially displayed sequences have been verified by quantifying relative level of these transcripts using TAQman quantitative PCR. CONCLUSION: Taken as a whole, the identification of novel gene tags up-regulated in CFS patients adds weight to the idea that CFS is a disease characterized by subtle changes in the immune system.

Identification of prebiotic fructooligosaccharide metabolism in Lactobacillus plantarum WCFS1 through microarrays

Short-chain fructooligosaccharides (scFOS) and other prebiotics are used to selectively stimulate the growth and activity of lactobacilli and bifidobacteria in the colon. However, there is little information on the mechanisms whereby prebiotics exert their specific effects upon such microorganisms. To study the genomic basis of scFOS metabolism in Lactobacillus plantarum WCFS1, two-color microarrays were used to screen for differentially expressed genes when grown on scFOS compared to glucose (control). A significant up-regulation (8- to 60-fold) was observed with a set of only five genes located in a single locus and predicted to encode a sucrose phosphoenolpyruvate transport system (PTS), a beta-fructofuranosidase, a fructokinase, an alpha-glucosidase, and a sucrose operon repressor. Several other genes were slightly overexpressed, including pyruvate dehydrogenase. For the latter, no detectable activity in L. plantarum under various growth conditions has been previously reported. A mannose-PTS likely to encode glucose uptake was 50-fold down-regulated as well as, to a lower extent, other PTSs. Chemical analysis of the different moieties of scFOS that were depleted in the growth medium revealed that the trisaccharide 1-kestose present in scFOS was preferentially utilized, in comparison with the tetrasaccharide nystose and the pentasaccharide fructofuranosylnystose. The main end products of scFOS fermentation were lactate and acetate. This is the first example in lactobacilli of the association of a sucrose PTS and a beta-fructofuranosidase that could be used for scFOS degradation.

Group stochastic search for object detection and tracking

A technique is presented for locating and tracking objects in cluttered environments. Agents are randomly distributed across the image, and subsequently grouped around targets. Each agent uses a weightless neural network and a histogram intersection technique to score its location. The system has been used to locate and track a head in 320x240 resolution video at up to 15fps.

Pulse shaping using state space algorithms

We discuss the use of pulse shaping for optimal excitation of samples in time-domain THz spectroscopy. Pulse shaping can be performed in a 4f optical system to specifications from state space models of the system's dynamics. Subspace algorithms may be used for the identification of the state space models.

A novel blind channel estimation method for MIMO system

Channel estimation method is a key issue in MIMO system. In recent years, a lot of papers on subspace(SS)-based blind channel estimation have been published, and in this paper, combining SS method with a space-time coding scheme, we proposed a novel blind channel estimation method in MIMO system. Simulation result demonstrates the effectiveness of this method.

Classification of lactose and mandelic acid THz spectra using subspace and wavelet-packet algorithms

This work compares classification results of lactose, mandelic acid and dl-mandelic acid, obtained on the basis of their respective THz transients. The performance of three different pre-processing algorithms applied to the time-domain signatures obtained using a THz-transient spectrometer are contrasted by evaluating the classifier performance. A range of amplitudes of zero-mean white Gaussian noise are used to artificially degrade the signal-to-noise ratio of the time-domain signatures to generate the data sets that are presented to the classifier for both learning and validation purposes. This gradual degradation of interferograms by increasing the noise level is equivalent to performing measurements assuming a reduced integration time. Three signal processing algorithms were adopted for the evaluation of the complex insertion loss function of the samples under study; a) standard evaluation by ratioing the sample with the background spectra, b) a subspace identification algorithm and c) a novel wavelet-packet identification procedure. Within class and between class dispersion metrics are adopted for the three data sets. A discrimination metric evaluates how well the three classes can be distinguished within the frequency range 0. 1 - 1.0 THz using the above algorithms.

Information system evolvability, feedback and pattern languages

Information systems for business are frequently heavily reliant on software. Two important feedback-related effects of embedding software in a business process are identified. First, the system dynamics of the software maintenance process can become complex, particularly in the number and scope of the feedback loops. Secondly, responsiveness to feedback can have a big effect on the evolvability of the information system. Ways have been explored to provide an effective mechanism for improving the quality of feedback between stakeholders during software maintenance. Understanding can be improved by using representations of information systems that are both service-based and architectural in scope. The conflicting forces that encourage change or stability can be resolved using patterns and pattern languages. A morphology of information systems pattern languages has been described to facilitate the identification and reuse of patterns and pattern languages. The kind of planning process needed to achieve consensus on a system's evolution is also considered.

Empirical mode decomposition: a novel technique for the study of tremor time series

Tremor is a clinical feature characterized by oscillations of a part of the body. The detection and study of tremor is an important step in investigations seeking to explain underlying control strategies of the central nervous system under natural (or physiological) and pathological conditions. It is well established that tremorous activity is composed of deterministic and stochastic components. For this reason, the use of digital signal processing techniques (DSP) which take into account the nonlinearity and nonstationarity of such signals may bring new information into the signal analysis which is often obscured by traditional linear techniques (e.g. Fourier analysis). In this context, this paper introduces the application of the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and Hilbert spectrum (HS), which are relatively new DSP techniques for the analysis of nonlinear and nonstationary time-series, for the study of tremor. Our results, obtained from the analysis of experimental signals collected from 31 patients with different neurological conditions, showed that the EMD could automatically decompose acquired signals into basic components, called intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), representing tremorous and voluntary activity. The identification of a physical meaning for IMFs in the context of tremor analysis suggests an alternative and new way of detecting tremorous activity. These results may be relevant for those applications requiring automatic detection of tremor. Furthermore, the energy of IMFs was visualized as a function of time and frequency by means of the HS. This analysis showed that the variation of energy of tremorous and voluntary activity could be distinguished and characterized on the HS. Such results may be relevant for those applications aiming to identify neurological disorders. In general, both the HS and EMD demonstrated to be very useful to perform objective analysis of any kind of tremor and can therefore be potentially used to perform functional assessment.

A fast identification algorithm for Box-Cox transformation based radial basis function neural network

In this letter, a Box-Cox transformation-based radial basis function (RBF) neural network is introduced using the RBF neural network to represent the transformed system output. Initially a fixed and moderate sized RBF model base is derived based on a rank revealing orthogonal matrix triangularization (QR decomposition). Then a new fast identification algorithm is introduced using Gauss-Newton algorithm to derive the required Box-Cox transformation, based on a maximum likelihood estimator. The main contribution of this letter is to explore the special structure of the proposed RBF neural network for computational efficiency by utilizing the inverse of matrix block decomposition lemma. Finally, the Box-Cox transformation-based RBF neural network, with good generalization and sparsity, is identified based on the derived optimal Box-Cox transformation and a D-optimality-based orthogonal forward regression algorithm. The proposed algorithm and its efficacy are demonstrated with an illustrative example in comparison with support vector machine regression.

Adaptive deadbeat control of stochastic systems

This paper considers the use of a discrete-time deadbeat control action on systems affected by noise. Variations on the standard controller form are discussed and comparisons are made with controllers in which noise rejection is a higher priority objective. Both load and random disturbances are considered in the system description, although the aim of the deadbeat design remains as a tailoring of reference input variations. Finally, the use of such a deadbeat action within a self-tuning control framework is shown to satisfy, under certain conditions, the self-tuning property, generally though only when an extended form of least-squares estimation is incorporated.