Molecular interactions and signal transfer between sensory rhodopsin-I and its cognate transducer

SRI is unique among known photoreceptors in that it produces opposite signals depending on the color of light stimuli. Absorption of orange light (587 nm) triggers an attractant response by the cell, whereas absorption of orange light followed by near-UV light (373 run) triggers a repellent response. Using behavioral mutants that exhibit aberrant color-sensing ability, we tested a two-conformation equilibrium model, using FRET and EPR spectroscopy. The essence of the model applied to SRI-HtrI is that the complex exists in a metastable two-conformer equilibrium which is shifted in one direction by orange light absorption (producing an attractant signal) and in the opposite direction by a second UV-violet photon (producing a repellent signal). First, by FRET we found that the E-F cytoplasmic loop of SRI moves toward the RAMP domain of the HtrI transducer during the formation of the orange-light activated signaling state of the complex. This is the first localization of a change in the physical relationship between the receptor and transducer subunits of the complex and provides a structural property of the two proposed conformers that we can monitor. Second, EPR spectra of a spin label probe at this cytoplasmic position showed shifts in the dark in the mutants toward shorter or longer EF loop-RAMP distances, explaining their behavior in terms of their mutations causing pre-stimulus shifts into one or the other conformer. ^ Next, we applied a novel electrophysiological method for monitoring the directionality of proton movement during photoactivation of SRI, to investigate the process of proton transfer in the photoactive site from the chromophore to proton acceptors on both the wildtype and aberrant color-response mutants. We observed an unexpected and critical difference in the two signaling conformations of the SRI-HtrI complex. The finding is that the vectoriality (i.e. movement away or toward the cytoplasm) of the light-induced proton transfer from the chromophore to the protein is opposite in formation of the two conformations. Retinylidene proton transfer is a common critical process in rhodopsins and these results are the first to show differences in vectoriality in a rhodopsin receptor, and to demonstrate functional importance of the direction of proton transfer. ^

A space-time analysis of reported shigellosis and salmonellosis cases in Texas from 2000 to 2004

Background. The purpose of this study was to describe the risk factors and demographics of persons with salmonellosis and shigellosis and to investigate both seasonal and spatial variations in the occurrence of these infections in Texas from 2000 to 2004, utilizing time series analyses and the geographic information system digital mapping methods. ^ Methods. Spatial Analysis: MapInfo software was used to map the distribution of age-adjusted rates of reported shigellosis and salmonellosis in Texas from 2000–2004 by zip codes. Census data on above or below poverty level, household income, highest level of educational attainment, race, ethnicity, and urban/rural community status was obtained from the 2000 Decennial Census for each zip code. The zip codes with the upper 10% and lower 10% were compared using t-tests and logistic regression to determine whether there were any potential risk factors. ^ Temporal analysis. Seasonal patterns in the prevalence of infections in Texas from 2000 to 2003 were determined by performing time-series analysis on the numbers of cases of salmonellosis and shigellosis. A linear regression was also performed to assess for trends in the incidence of each disease, along with auto-correlation and multi-component cosinor analysis. ^ Results. Spatial analysis: Analysis by general linear model showed a significant association between infection rates and age, with young children aged less than 5 and those aged 5–9 years having increased risk of infection for both disease conditions. The data demonstrated that those populations with high percentages of people who attained a higher than high school education were less likely to be represented in zip codes with high rates of shigellosis. However, for salmonellosis, logistic regression models indicated that when compared to populations with high percentages of non-high school graduates, having a high school diploma or equivalent increased the odds of having a high rate of infection. ^ Temporal analysis. For shigellosis, multi-component cosinor analyses were used to determine the approximated cosine curve which represented a statistically significant representation of the time series data for all age groups by sex. The shigellosis results show 2 peaks, with a major peak occurring in June and a secondary peak appearing around October. Salmonellosis results showed a single peak and trough in all age groups with the peak occurring in August and the trough occurring in February. ^ Conclusion. The results from this study can be used by public health agencies to determine the timing of public health awareness programs and interventions in order to prevent salmonellosis and shigellosis from occurring. Because young children depend on adults for their meals, it is important to increase the awareness of day-care workers and new parents about modes of transmission and hygienic methods of food preparation and storage. ^

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 results of model data with Community Climate System Model version 3 including the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CCSM3-DGVM) in NetCDF format at global and regional scale

The climate of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, the interglacial roughly 400,000 years ago, is investigated for four time slices, 416, 410, 400, and 394 ka. The overall picture is that MIS 11 was a relatively warm interglacial in comparison to preindustrial, with Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer temperatures early in MIS 11 (416-410 ka) warmer than preindustrial, though winters were cooler. Later in MIS 11, especially around 400 ka, conditions were cooler in the NH summer, mainly in the high latitudes. Climate changes simulated by the models were mainly driven by insolation changes, with the exception of two local feedbacks that amplify climate changes. Here, the NH high latitudes, where reductions in sea ice cover lead to a winter warming early in MIS 11, as well as the tropics, where monsoon changes lead to stronger climate variations than one would expect on the basis of latitudinal mean insolation change alone, are especially prominent. The results support a northward expansion of trees at the expense of grasses in the high northern latitudes early during MIS 11, especially in northern Asia and North America.

Euphausiid respiration model revamped, link to model results

Euphausiids constitute major biomass component in shelf ecosystems and play a fundamental role in the rapid vertical transport of carbon from the ocean surface to the deeper layers during their daily vertical migration (DVM). DVM depth and migration patterns depend on oceanographic conditions with respect to temperature, light and oxygen availability at depth, factors that are highly dependent on season in most marine regions. Changes in the abiotic conditions also shape Euphausiid metabolism including aerobic and anaerobic energy production. Here we introduce a global krill respiration model which includes the effect of latitude (LAT), the day of the year of interest (DoY), and the number of daylight hours on the day of interest (DLh), in addition to the basal variables that determine ectothermal oxygen consumption (temperature, body mass and depth) in the ANN model (Artificial Neural Networks). The newly implemented parameters link space and time in terms of season and photoperiod to krill respiration. The ANN model showed a better fit (r**2=0.780) when DLh and LAT were included, indicating a decrease in respiration with increasing LAT and decreasing DLh. We therefore propose DLh as a potential variable to consider when building physiological models for both hemispheres. We also tested for seasonality the standard respiration rate of the most common species that were investigated until now in a large range of DLh and DoY with Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) or General Additive model (GAM). GAM successfully integrated DLh (r**2= 0.563) and DoY (r**2= 0.572) effects on respiration rates of the Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, yielding the minimum metabolic activity in mid-June and the maximum at the end of December. Neither the MLR nor the GAM approach worked for the North Pacific krill Euphausia pacifica, and MLR for the North Atlantic krill Meganyctiphanes norvegica remained inconclusive because of insufficient seasonal data coverage. We strongly encourage comparative respiration measurements of worldwide Euphausiid key species at different seasons to improve accuracy in ecosystem modelling.

Isotopic composition of strontium in planktonic foraminiferas from sediments of the DSDP Holes 90-588 and 94-607

Measurements of 87Sr/86Sr on samples of planktonic foraminifers were used to reconstruct changes in the Sr isotopic composition of seawater for the past 8 Ma. The late Neogene was marked by a general, but not regular, increase in 87S/86Sr with two breaks in slope at 5.5 and 2.5 Ma. These times mark the beginning of two periods of steep increase in 87Sr/86Sr values, relative to preceding periods characterized by essentially constant values. During the last 2.5 Ma, 87Sr/86Sr values increased at an average rate of 0.000054/Ma. This steep increase suggests that the modem ocean is not in Sr isotopic equilibrium relative to its major input fluxes. A non-equilibrium model for the modern Sr budget suggests that the residence time of Sr is ~2.5 Ma, which is significantly less than previously accepted estimates of 4-5 Ma. Modelling results suggest that the increase in 87Sr/86Sr over the past 8 Ma could have resulted from a 25% increase in the riverine flux of Sr or an increase in the average 87Sr/86Sr of this flux by 0.0006. The dominant cause of increasing 87Sr/86Sr values of seawater during the late Neogene is believed to be increased rates of uplift and chemical weathering of mountainous regions. Calculations suggest that uplift and weathering of the Himalayan-Tibetan region alone can account for the majority of the observed 87Sr/86Sr increase since the early Late Miocene. Exhumation of Precambrian shield areas by continental ice-sheets may have contributed secondarily to accelerated mechanical and chemical weathering of old crustal silicates with high 87Sr/86Sr values. In fact, the upturn in 87Sr/86Sr at 2.5 Ma coincides with increased glacial activity in the Northern Hemisphere. A variety of geochemical (87Sr/86Sr, Ge/Si, d13C, CCD, etc.) and sedimentologic data (accumulation rates) from the marine sedimentary record are compatible with a progressive increase in the chemical weathering rate of continents and dissolved riverine fluxes during the late Cenozoic. We hypothesize that chemical weathering of the continents and dissolved riverine fluxes to the oceans reached a maximum during the late Pleistocene because of repeated glaciations, increased continental exposure by lowered sea level, and increased continental relief resulting from high rates of tectonism.

Age model and stable isotope record of DSDP holes 48-401 and 86-577

Early Paleogene warm climates may have been linked to different modes and sources of deepwater formation. Warm polar temperatures of the Paleocene and Eocene may have resulted from either increased atmospheric trace gases or increased heat transport through deep and intermediate waters. The possibility of increasing ocean heat transport through the production of warm saline deep waters (WSDW) in the Tethyan region has generated considerable interest. In addition, General Circulation Model results indicate that deepwater source regions may be highly sensitive to changing basin configurations. To decipher deepwater changes, we examined detailed benthic foraminiferal faunal and isotopic records of the late Paleocene through the early Eocene (~60 to 50 Ma) from two critical regions: the North Atlantic (Bay of Biscay Site 401) and the Pacific (Shatsky Rise Site 577). These records are compared with published data from the Southern Ocean (Maud Rise Site 690, Islas Orcadas Rise Site 702). During the late Paleocene, similar benthic foraminiferal delta18O values were recorded at all four sites. This indicates uniform deepwater temperatures, consistent with a single source of deep water. The highest delta13C values were recorded in the Southern Ocean and were 0.5 per mil more positive than those of the Pacific. We infer that the Southern Ocean was proximal to a source of nutrient-depleted deep water during the late Paleocene. Upper Paleocene Reflector Ab was cut on the western Bermuda Rise by cyclonically circulating bottom water, also suggesting a vigorous source of bottom water in the Southern Ocean. A dramatic negative excursion in both carbon and oxygen isotopes occurred in the latest Paleocene in the Southern Ocean. This is a short-term (<100 kyr), globally synchronous event which also is apparent in both the Atlantic and Pacific records as a carbon isotopic excursion of approximately 1 per mil. Faunal analyses from the North Atlantic and Pacific sites indicate that the largest benthic foraminiferal faunal turnover of the Cenozoic was synchronous with the isotopic excursion, lending support to the hypothesis that the extinctions were caused by a change in deepwater circulation. We speculate that the Southern Ocean deepwater source was reduced or eliminated at the time of the excursion. During the early Eocene, Southern Ocean delta13C values remained enriched relative to the North Atlantic and Pacific. However, the Southern Ocean was also enriched in delta18O relative to these basins. We interpret that these patterns indicate that although the Southern Ocean was proximal to a source of cool, nutrient-depleted water, the intermediate to upper deep water sites of the North Atlantic and Pacific were ventilated by a different source that probably originated in low latitudes, i.e., WSDW.

Model simulation output data (CCSM3) related to uplift of African topography and the intensification of upwelling in the Benguela region

The Benguela Current, located off the west coast of southern Africa, is tied to a highly productive upwelling system**1. Over the past 12 million years, the current has cooled, and upwelling has intensified**2, 3, 4. These changes have been variously linked to atmospheric and oceanic changes associated with the glaciation of Antarctica and global cooling**5, the closure of the Central American Seaway**1, 6 or the further restriction of the Indonesian Seaway**3. The upwelling intensification also occurred during a period of substantial uplift of the African continent**7, 8. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to test the effect of African uplift on Benguela upwelling. In our simulations, uplift in the East African Rift system and in southern and southwestern Africa induces an intensification of coastal low-level winds, which leads to increased oceanic upwelling of cool subsurface waters. We compare the effect of African uplift with the simulated impact of the Central American Seaway closure9, Indonesian Throughflow restriction10 and Antarctic glaciation**11, and find that African uplift has at least an equally strong influence as each of the three other factors. We therefore conclude that African uplift was an important factor in driving the cooling and strengthening of the Benguela Current and coastal upwelling during the late Miocene and Pliocene epochs.

Simulated changes in ocean physics and carbon cycle for LGM experiments with shifting positions of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds using the MITgcm, links to model results in NetCDF format

We explore the impact of a latitudinal shift in the westerly wind belt over the Southern Ocean on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and on the carbon cycle for Last Glacial Maximum background conditions using a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model. We find that a southward (northward) shift in the westerly winds leads to an intensification (weakening) of no more than 10% of the AMOC. This response of the ocean physics to shifting winds agrees with other studies starting from preindustrial background climate, but the responsible processes are different. In our setup changes in AMOC seemed to be more pulled by upwelling in the south than pushed by downwelling in the north, opposite to what previous studies with different background climate are suggesting. The net effects of the changes in ocean circulation lead to a rise in atmospheric pCO2 of less than 10 atm for both northward and southward shift in the winds. For northward shifted winds the zone of upwelling of carbon- and nutrient-rich waters in the Southern Ocean is expanded, leading to more CO2 outgassing to the atmosphere but also to an enhanced biological pump in the subpolar region. For southward shifted winds the upwelling region contracts around Antarctica, leading to less nutrient export northward and thus a weakening of the biological pump. These model results do not support the idea that shifts in the westerly wind belt play a dominant role in coupling atmospheric CO2 rise and Antarctic temperature during deglaciation suggested by the ice core data.

Simulated Methyl iodide emission and concentration using the ocean biogeochemistry model MPIOM/HAMOCC forced by OMIP data

Production pathways of the prominent volatile organic halogen compound methyl iodide (CH3I) are not fully understood. Based on observations, production of CH3I via photochemical degradation of organic material or via phytoplankton production has been proposed. Additional insights could not be gained from correlations between observed biological and environmental variables or from biogeochemical modeling to identify unambiguously the source of methyl iodide. In this study, we aim to address this question of source mechanisms with a three-dimensional global ocean general circulation model including biogeochemistry (MPIOM-HAMOCC (MPIOM - Max Planck Institute Ocean Model HAMOCC - HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model)) by carrying out a series of sensitivity experiments. The simulated fields are compared with a newly available global data set. Simulated distribution patterns and emissions of CH3I differ largely for the two different production pathways. The evaluation of our model results with observations shows that, on the global scale, observed surface concentrations of CH3I can be best explained by the photochemical production pathway. Our results further emphasize that correlations between CH3I and abiotic or biotic factors do not necessarily provide meaningful insights concerning the source of origin. Overall, we find a net global annual CH3I air-sea flux that ranges between 70 and 260 Gg/yr. On the global scale, the ocean acts as a net source of methyl iodide for the atmosphere, though in some regions in boreal winter, fluxes are of the opposite direction (from the atmosphere to the ocean).

Stable oxygen isotope data of Globorotalia inflata and radiocarbon dates for sediment cores GeoB6211-2, GeoB13862-1, and GeoB6308-3

The Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) exert a crucial influence over the world ocean and climate. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of the Holocene temporal and spatial evolution of the SWW remains a significant challenge due to the sparsity of high-resolution marine archives and appropriate SWW proxies. Here, we present a north-south transect of high-resolution planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotope records from the western South Atlantic. Our proxy records reveal Holocene migrations of the Brazil- Malvinas Confluence (BMC), a highly sensitive feature for changes in the position and strength of the northern portion of the SWW. Through the tight coupling of the BMC position to the large-scale wind field, the records allow a quantitative reconstruction of Holocene latitudinal displacements of the SWW across the South Atlantic. Our data reveal a gradual poleward movement of the SWW by about 1-1.5° from the early to the mid-Holocene. Afterwards variability in the SWW is dominated by millennial-scale displacements in the order of 1° in latitude with no recognizable longer-term trend. These findings are confronted with results from a state-of-the-art transient Holocene climate simulation using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Proxy-inferred and modeled SWW shifts compare qualitatively, but the model underestimates both orbitally forced multi-millennial and internal millennial SWW variability by almost an order of magnitude. The underestimated natural variability implies a substantial uncertainty in model projections of future SWW shifts.

Regional ocean model for the Mediterranean, links to model files

A regional ocean general circulation model of the Mediterranean is used to study the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum. The atmospheric forcing for these simulations has been derived from simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model, which in turn was forced with surface conditions from a coarse resolution earth system model. The model is successful in reproducing the general patterns of reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies with the strongest cooling in summer in the northwestern Mediterranean and weak cooling in the Levantine, although the model underestimates the extent of the summer cooling in the western Mediterranean. However, there is a strong vertical gradient associated with this pattern of summer cooling, which makes the comparison with reconstructions complicated. The exchange with the Atlantic is decreased to roughly one half of its present value, which can be explained by the shallower Strait of Gibraltar as a consequence of lower global sea level. This reduced exchange causes a strong increase of salinity in the Mediterranean in spite of reduced net evaporation.

Frontiers of the New Economic Geography

This paper presents an overview of recent development in the new economic geography (NEG), and discusses possible directions of its future development. Since there already exist several surveys on this topic, we focus on the selected features of the NEG which are important yet have attracted insufficient attention, and also on the recent refinements and extensions of the framework.

Monetary Policy Effects in Developing Countries with Minimum Wages

Using a Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model, this study examines the effects of monetary policy in economies where minimum wages are bound. The findings show that the monetary-policy effect on a binding-minimum-wage economy is relatively small and quite persistent. This result suggests that these two characteristics of monetary policy in the minimum-wage model are rather different from those in the union-negotiation model which is often assumed to account for industrial economies.

Revisiting the determinants of unit values

This paper studies the issue of how traded quantities affect trade prices, which has been relatively unexplored in the trade literature. By reproducing previous literatures' regressions which are based on the general equilibrium trade theories, incorporating the role of traded quantities, this paper shows a possibility of prevalence of the second degree price discrimination (quantity discount) in international trade, rather than the pricing behaviour of the general equilibrium theories.

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.