Modeling and forecasting long-term natural gas (NG) consumption in Iran, using particle swarm optimization (PSO)

The gradual changes in the world development have brought energy issues back into high profile. An ongoing challenge for countries around the world is to balance the development gains against its effects on the environment. The energy management is the key factor of any sustainable development program. All the aspects of development in agriculture, power generation, social welfare and industry in Iran are crucially related to the energy and its revenue. Forecasting end-use natural gas consumption is an important Factor for efficient system operation and a basis for planning decisions. In this thesis, particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to forecast long run natural gas consumption in Iran. Gas consumption data in Iran for the previous 34 years is used to predict the consumption for the coming years. Four linear and nonlinear models proposed and six factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, National Income (NI), Temperature, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and yearly Natural Gas (NG) demand investigated.

Welfare and fiscal policy with public goods and infrastructure

We construct and simulate a model to study the welfare and macroeconomic impact of government actions when its productive role is taken into account. The trade-off between public investment and public consumption is also investigated, since public consumption is introduced as a public good that directly affects individuals' well-being. Our results replicate econometric evidence showing that part of the observed slowdown of U.S. productivity growth can be explained by the reduction of investment in infrastructure which also implied a sizable welfare 1085 to the popu1ation. Depending on the methodology used we found a welfare cost ranging from 4.2% to 1.16% of GNP. The impact of fiscal policy can be qualitative and quantitative distinct depending on Whether we assume a higher or smaller output elasticity to infrastructure. If it is high enough, increases in tax rates may stimulate accumulation and production, which is the opposite prediction of standard ncocJassica1 models.

A note on growth, welfare and public policy

In this note the growth anti welfare effects of fiscal anti monetary policies are investigated in three economies where public investment is part of the productive process It is shown that growth is maximized at positive levels of income tax and inflation but that there is no direct relationship between government size, productivity and growth or between inflation and growth. However, unless there are no transfers or public goods in the economy, maximization of growth does not imply welfare maximization and the optimal tax rate and government size are greater than those that maximize growth. Money is not superneutral anti the optimal rate of money creation is below the maximizing rate of growth.

O regime geral de previdência social: diagnósticos estruturais críticos e proposta de reformas

Since the last decade of the past century and further, there have been increased, polemic discussions in Brazil that are also occurring simultaneously in the rest of the world: the sustainability of public pension systems. The Brazilian system, which is denominated as the General Regimen of Social Welfare and was established in a distribution regimen, is becoming a growing source of expenditures for the Federal Government and is contributing to the increasing of its fiscal deficit. This situation started to decline after the promulgation of the Federal Constitution in 1988, in which actions had been established reflecting the feeling of ¿social debt¿ existing in the country by that time after years of economic growth without yield redistribution. Thus, benevolent rules had been instituted that provided an assistancialist character to the program, making it unsustainable when it is seen by the internationally accepted premise of the pension system as social insurance with perpetual duration. In consequence, there was an explosive growth of the financial needs of the system reaching the equivalent of 1.63% of the Gross Domestic Product in 2005. In this sense, many arguments in favor of revision and reforms in the current model had solidified, resulting, in 1998, in some changes in the contribution rules of the diverse sectors of society, as well as in the concession of benefit rules. However, such changes had not obtained significant effects since the main source of the imbalance, which is essentially structural, was not attacked. Therefore, this research seeks to diagnose some of the most structural points in the current public pension system in Brazil and evaluate what can be done in terms of reforms to turn the program into balance again and in restore harmony with its conceptual objectives.

Thinking from the South: brazilian social thought and the case of Euclides da Cunha

The article presents the main ideas of Euclides da Cunha (1866-1909), a famous Brazilian intellectual from the beginning of the twentieth-century. Da Cunha was one of the first writers to provide a proto-sociological account of subaltern people in Brazil. The aim of the article is to review his contributions in the light of contemporary discussions concerning postcolonialism and decolonisation.

Inflation, welfare and public expenditures

This paper studies welfare effects of monetary policy in an overlapping generations model with capital and no form of taxation other than inflation. Public expenditures have a positive effect on labor productivity. The main result of the paper is that an expansive monetary policy can be welfare improving, at least for ìsmall enoughî inflation rates, and that there is an optimal inflation rate. Growth maximization, however, is never optimal. Steady-state capital and output increase with inflation, reproducing the so-called Tobin effect. For large inflation rates, however, the government authorities cannot affect real variables and there are only nominal effects.

Corporate social responsibility and environmental sustainability: classification of the initiatives of the FMCG companies operating in Brazil

Este trabalho tem como objetivo fornecer uma análise detalhada do cenário da sustentabilidade ambiental e iniciativas de responsabilidade social corporativa nas empresas que operam no mercado de bens de consumo brasileiro. Para alcançar este objetivo as dez maiores empresas do mercado-alvo presente no Brasil foram analisadas por meio da classificação das suas iniciativas em três perspectivas amplas. Com esta classificação o cenário do mercado pode ser visto. As perspectivas utilizadas para a elaboração do trabalho são: (1) iniciativa ambiental ou social; (2) o foco interno ou externo e (3) a marca ou o custo como motivador. Depois de classificar todas as iniciativas, foi possível ver que as empresas similares, que operam em mercados semelhantes, têm estratégias que são muito parecidos entre si. Além disso, ficou claro que a estratégia de negócios da empresa influencia as suas políticas ambientais e sociais, em particular os objetivos que estas políticas procuram obter.Embora este trabalho apresente um panorama abrangente do setor de bens de consumo em relação a políticas de comportamento responsável das empresas, ele tem algumas limitações. A limitação mais significativa diz respeito a metodologia. As iniciativas foram avaliadas pela quantidade e a abrangência dos benefícios do impacto positivo não foram avaliados, impossibilitando assim a comparação do tamanho do impacto de cada empresa. Uma vez que pode haver um projeto de uma empresa que tem maior impacto do que vários outros feitos por alguma outra empresa. A metodologia foi baseada em clusters de categorias, no entanto, as iniciativas não são completamente uma coisa ou outra, ou seja, uma iniciativa pode ter diferentes impactos, drivers ou foco, nesses casos, os aspectos mais relevantes foram a escolhidos para classificá-los.

Domestic violence in Brazil: social problems and legislative interventions

Recent statistical data confirms that domestic violence is a structural problem of exceptional gravity. We analyze the frequent legislative changes in Brazil since 2000 as a result of social pressure for protection of abused women. Only the Law 11.340 of 2006 was well received by lawyers, judges and the public opinion. We present the innovations and peculiarities of this statute and the allegations on unconstitutionality. We discuss cases of judicial review of this law and reject the arguments of unconstitutionality. That notwithstanding, we argue that penalization decisions is the wrong way from a criminological point of view because they do not take into consideration the desires and needs of the victims.

Social norms and money

In an economy where there is no double coincidence of wants and without recordkeeping of past transactions, money is usually seen as the only mechanism that can support exchange. In this paper, we show that, as long as the population is finite and agents are sufficiently patient, a social norm establishing gift-exchange can substitute for money. Notwithstanding, for a given discount factor, the growth of the population size eventually leads to the breakdown of the social norm, while money still works. 1 Introduction

Welfare and growth effects of alternative fiscal rules for infrastructure investment in Brazil

This article studies the interplay between fiscal rules, public investment and growth in Brazil. It is investigated if it would make sense to raise public investment and, if so, under which fiscal rule it is best to do it — whether through tax financing, debt financing, or a reduction of public consumption. We construct and simulate a competitive general equilibrium model, calibrated to Brazilian economy, in which public capital is a component of the production function and public consumption directly affects individuals’ well-being. After assessing the impacts of alternative fiscal rules, the paper concludes that the most desirable financing scheme is the reduction of public consumption, which dominates the others in terms of output and welfare gains. The model replicates the observed growth slowdown of the Brazilian economy when we increase taxes and reduce public capital formation to the levels observed after 1980 and shows that the growth impact of the expansion of tax collection in Brazil was much larger than that of public investment compression.