Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case

Agent-based computational economics is becoming widely used in practice. This paperexplores the consistency of some of its standard techniques. We focus in particular on prevailingwholesale electricity trading simulation methods. We include different supply and demandrepresentations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method to include severalbehavioural algorithms. We compare the results across assumptions and to economic theorypredictions. The match is good under best-response and reinforcement learning but not underfictitious play. The simulations perform well under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding,and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number ofbids per plant and the initial conditions. The overall conclusion is that agent-based simulationassumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, andidentify those that are better suited to model wholesale electricity markets.

Food's visually perceived fat content affects discrimination speed in an orthogonal spatial task.

Choosing what to eat is a complex activity for humans. Determining a food's pleasantness requires us to combine information about what is available at a given time with knowledge of the food's palatability, texture, fat content, and other nutritional information. It has been suggested that humans may have an implicit knowledge of a food's fat content based on its appearance; Toepel et al. (Neuroimage 44:967-974, 2009) reported visual-evoked potential modulations after participants viewed images of high-energy, high-fat food (HF), as compared to viewing low-fat food (LF). In the present study, we investigated whether there are any immediate behavioural consequences of these modulations for human performance. HF, LF, or non-food (NF) images were used to exogenously direct participants' attention to either the left or the right. Next, participants made speeded elevation discrimination responses (up vs. down) to visual targets presented either above or below the midline (and at one of three stimulus onset asynchronies: 150, 300, or 450 ms). Participants responded significantly more rapidly following the presentation of a HF image than following the presentation of either LF or NF images, despite the fact that the identity of the images was entirely task-irrelevant. Similar results were found when comparing response speeds following images of high-carbohydrate (HC) food items to low-carbohydrate (LC) food items. These results support the view that people rapidly process (i.e. within a few hundred milliseconds) the fat/carbohydrate/energy value or, perhaps more generally, the pleasantness of food. Potentially as a result of HF/HC food items being more pleasant and thus having a higher incentive value, it seems as though seeing these foods results in a response readiness, or an overall alerting effect, in the human brain.

Characterization of intonation in Karṇāṭaka music by parametrizing context-based Svara Distributions

Intonation is a fundamental music concept that has a special relevance in Indian art music. It is characteristic of the rāga and intrinsic to the musical expression of the performer. Describing intonation is of importance to several information retrieval tasks like the development of rāga and artist similarity measures. In our previous work, we proposed a compact representation of intonation based on the parametrization of the pitch histogram of a performance and demonstrated the usefulness of this representation through an explorative rāga recognition task in which we classified 42 vocal performances belonging to 3 rāgas using parameters of a single svara. In this paper, we extend this representation to employ context-based svara distributions, which are obtained with a different approach to find the pitches belonging to each svara. We quantitatively compare this method to our previous one, discuss the advantages, and the necessary melodic analysis to be carried out in future.

Weight status and gender-related differences in motor skills and in child care - based physical activity in young children.

Over the last decades, a decline in motor skills and in physical activity and an increase in obesity has been observed in children. However, there is a lack of data in young children. We tested if differences in motor skills and in physical activity according to weight or gender were already present in 2- to 4-year-old children. Fifty-eight child care centers in the French part of Switzerland were randomly selected for the Youp'là bouge study. Motor skills were assessed by an obstacle course including 5 motor skills, derived from the Zurich Neuromotor Assessment test. Physical activity was measured with accelerometers (GT1M, Actigraph, Florida, USA) using age-adapted cut-offs. Weight status was assessed using the International Obesity Task Force criteria (healthy weight vs overweight) for body mass index (BMI). Of the 529 children (49% girls, 3.4 ± 0.6 years, BMI 16.2 ± 1.2 kg/m2), 13% were overweight. There were no significant weight status-related differences in the single skills of the obstacle course, but there was a trend (p = 0.059) for a lower performance of overweight children in the overall motor skills score. No significant weight status-related differences in child care-based physical activity were observed. No gender-related differences were found in the overall motor skills score, but boys performed better than girls in 2 of the 5 motor skills (p ≤ 0.04). Total physical activity as well as time spent in moderate-vigorous and in vigorous activity during child care were 12-25% higher and sedentary activity 5% lower in boys compared to girls (all p < 0.01). At this early age, there were no significant weight status- or gender-related differences in global motor skills. However, in accordance to data in older children, child care-based physical activity was higher in boys compared to girls. These results are important to consider when establishing physical activity recommendations or targeting health promotion interventions in young children.

Atlas-based segmentation of pathological MR brain images using a model of lesion growth.

We propose a method for brain atlas deformation in the presence of large space-occupying tumors, based on an a priori model of lesion growth that assumes radial expansion of the lesion from its starting point. Our approach involves three steps. First, an affine registration brings the atlas and the patient into global correspondence. Then, the seeding of a synthetic tumor into the brain atlas provides a template for the lesion. The last step is the deformation of the seeded atlas, combining a method derived from optical flow principles and a model of lesion growth. Results show that a good registration is performed and that the method can be applied to automatic segmentation of structures and substructures in brains with gross deformation, with important medical applications in neurosurgery, radiosurgery, and radiotherapy.

Improved statistical analysis of low abundance phenomena in bimodal bacterial populations.

Accurate detection of subpopulation size determinations in bimodal populations remains problematic yet it represents a powerful way by which cellular heterogeneity under different environmental conditions can be compared. So far, most studies have relied on qualitative descriptions of population distribution patterns, on population-independent descriptors, or on arbitrary placement of thresholds distinguishing biological ON from OFF states. We found that all these methods fall short of accurately describing small population sizes in bimodal populations. Here we propose a simple, statistics-based method for the analysis of small subpopulation sizes for use in the free software environment R and test this method on real as well as simulated data. Four so-called population splitting methods were designed with different algorithms that can estimate subpopulation sizes from bimodal populations. All four methods proved more precise than previously used methods when analyzing subpopulation sizes of transfer competent cells arising in populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas knackmussii B13. The methods' resolving powers were further explored by bootstrapping and simulations. Two of the methods were not severely limited by the proportions of subpopulations they could estimate correctly, but the two others only allowed accurate subpopulation quantification when this amounted to less than 25% of the total population. In contrast, only one method was still sufficiently accurate with subpopulations smaller than 1% of the total population. This study proposes a number of rational approximations to quantifying small subpopulations and offers an easy-to-use protocol for their implementation in the open source statistical software environment R.

FRAX(®) Clinical Task Force of the 2010 Joint International Society for Clinical Densitometry & International Osteoporosis Foundation Position Development Conference.

The World Health Organization fracture risk assessment tool, FRAX(®), is an advance in clinical care that can assist in clinical decision-making. However, with increasing clinical utilization, numerous questions have arisen regarding how to best estimate fracture risk in an individual patient. Recognizing the need to assist clinicians in optimal use of FRAX(®), the International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) in conjunction with the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) assembled an international panel of experts that ultimately developed joint Official Positions of the ISCD and IOF advising clinicians regarding FRAX(®) usage. As part of the process, the charge of the FRAX(®) Clinical Task Force was to review and synthesize data surrounding a number of recognized clinical risk factors including rheumatoid arthritis, smoking, alcohol, prior fracture, falls, bone turnover markers and glucocorticoid use. This synthesis was presented to the expert panel and constitutes the data on which the subsequent Official Positions are predicated. A summary of the Clinical Task Force composition and charge is presented here.

Post-detection analysis for grating-based ultra-small angle X-ray scattering.

Until recently, the hard X-ray, phase-sensitive imaging technique called grating interferometry was thought to provide information only in real space. However, by utilizing an alternative approach to data analysis we demonstrated that the angular resolved ultra-small angle X-ray scattering distribution can be retrieved from experimental data. Thus, reciprocal space information is accessible by grating interferometry in addition to real space. Naturally, the quality of the retrieved data strongly depends on the performance of the employed analysis procedure, which involves deconvolution of periodic and noisy data in this context. The aim of this article is to compare several deconvolution algorithms to retrieve the ultra-small angle X-ray scattering distribution in grating interferometry. We quantitatively compare the performance of three deconvolution procedures (i.e., Wiener, iterative Wiener and Lucy-Richardson) in case of realistically modeled, noisy and periodic input data. The simulations showed that the algorithm of Lucy-Richardson is the more reliable and more efficient as a function of the characteristics of the signals in the given context. The availability of a reliable data analysis procedure is essential for future developments in grating interferometry.

A surface-based approach to quantify local cortical gyrification.

The high complexity of cortical convolutions in humans is very challenging both for engineers to measure and compare it, and for biologists and physicians to understand it. In this paper, we propose a surface-based method for the quantification of cortical gyrification. Our method uses accurate 3-D cortical reconstruction and computes local measurements of gyrification at thousands of points over the whole cortical surface. The potential of our method to identify and localize precisely gyral abnormalities is illustrated by a clinical study on a group of children affected by 22q11 Deletion Syndrome, compared to control individuals.

An Efficient Segmentation Method for Ultrasound Images based on a Semi-supervised Approach and Patch-based Features

Segmenting ultrasound images is a challenging problemwhere standard unsupervised segmentation methods such asthe well-known Chan-Vese method fail. We propose in thispaper an efficient segmentation method for this class ofimages. Our proposed algorithm is based on asemi-supervised approach (user labels) and the use ofimage patches as data features. We also consider thePearson distance between patches, which has been shown tobe robust w.r.t speckle noise present in ultrasoundimages. Our results on phantom and clinical data show avery high similarity agreement with the ground truthprovided by a medical expert.

Performance of panel-based criteria to evaluate the appropriateness of colonoscopy: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Prospective data describing the appropriateness of use of colonoscopy based on detailed panel-based clinical criteria are not available. METHODS: In a cohort of 553 consecutive patients referred for colonoscopy to two university-based Swiss outpatient clinics, the percentage of patients who underwent colonoscopy for appropriate, equivocal, and inappropriate indications and the relationship between appropriateness of use and the presence of relevant endoscopic lesions was prospectively assessed. This assessment was based on criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy and explicit American and Swiss criteria developed in 1994 by a formal panel process using the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method. RESULTS: The procedures were rated appropriate or equivocal in 72.2% by criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, in 68.5% by explicit American criteria, and in 74.4% by explicit Swiss criteria (not statistically significant, NS). Inappropriate use (overuse) of colonoscopy was found in 27.8%, 31.5%, and 25.6%, respectively (NS). The proportion of appropriate procedures was higher with increasing age. Almost all reasons for using colonoscopy could be assessed by the two explicit criteria sets, whereas 28.4% of reasons for using colonoscopy could not be evaluated by the criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (p < 0.0001). The probability of finding a relevant endoscopic lesion was distinctly higher in the procedures rated appropriate or equivocal than in procedures judged inappropriate. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of inappropriate use of colonoscopy is substantial in Switzerland. Explicit criteria allow assessment of almost all indications encountered in clinical practice. In this study, all sets of appropriateness criteria significantly enhanced the probability of finding a relevant endoscopic lesion during colonoscopy.

Population-based registration of phenotypic anatomic and familial data for melanoma: results from a Swiss multicentric study

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVES: A multicentric study was set up to assess the feasibility for Swiss cancer registries of actively retrieving 3 additional variables of epidemiological and a etiological relevance for melanoma, and of potential use for the evaluation of prevention campaigns. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The skin type, family history of melanoma and precise anatomical site were retrieved for melanoma cases registered in 5 Swiss cantons (Neuchâtel, St-Gall and Appenzell, Vaud and Wallis) over 3 to 6 consecutive years (1995-2002). Data were obtained via a short questionnaire administered by the physicians - mostly dermatologists - who originally excised the lesions. As the detailed body site was routinely collected in Ticino, data from this Cancer Registry were included in the body site analysis. Relative melanoma density (RMD) was computed by the ratio of observed to expected numbers of melanomas allowing for body site surface areas, and further adjusted for site-specific melanocyte density. RESULTS: Of the 1,645 questionnaires sent, 1,420 (86.3%) were returned. The detailed cutaneous site and skin type were reliably obtained for 84.7% and 78.7% of questionnaires, and family history was known in 76% of instances. Prevalence of sun-sensitive subjects and patients with melanoma affected first-degree relatives, two target groups for early detection and surveillance campaigns were 54.1% and 3.4%, respectively. After translation into the 4th digit of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, the anatomical site codes from printed (original information) and pictorial support (body chart from the questionnaire) concurred for 94.6% of lesions. Discrepancies occurred mostly for lesions on the upper, outer part of the shoulder for which the clinician's textual description was "shoulder blade". This differential misclassification suggests under-estimation by about 10% of melanomas of the upper limbs and an over-estimation of 5% for truncal melanomas. Sites of highest melanoma risk were the face, the shoulder and the upper arm for sexes, the back for men and the leg for women. Three major features of this series were: (1) an unexpectedly high RMD for the face in women (6.2 vs 4.2 in men), (2) the absence of a male predominance for melanomas on the ears, and (3) for the upper limbs, a steady gradient of increasing melanoma density with increasing proximity to the trunk, regardless of sex. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The feasibility of retrieving the skin type, the precise anatomical location and family history of melanoma in a reliable manner was demonstrated thanks to the collaboration of Swiss dermatologists. Use of a schematic body drawing improves the quality of the anatomical site data and facilitate the reporting task of doctors. Age and sex patterns of RMD paralleled general indicators of sun exposure and behaviour, except for the hand (RMD=0.2). These Swiss results support some site or sun exposure specificity in the aetiology of melanoma.

Synchronizability of EEG-Based Functional Networks in Early Alzheimer's Disease.

Recently graph theory and complex networks have been widely used as a mean to model functionality of the brain. Among different neuroimaging techniques available for constructing the brain functional networks, electroencephalography (EEG) with its high temporal resolution is a useful instrument of the analysis of functional interdependencies between different brain regions. Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disease, which leads to substantial cognitive decline, and eventually, dementia in aged people. To achieve a deeper insight into the behavior of functional cerebral networks in AD, here we study their synchronizability in 17 newly diagnosed AD patients compared to 17 healthy control subjects at no-task, eyes-closed condition. The cross-correlation of artifact-free EEGs was used to construct brain functional networks. The extracted networks were then tested for their synchronization properties by calculating the eigenratio of the Laplacian matrix of the connection graph, i.e., the largest eigenvalue divided by the second smallest one. In AD patients, we found an increase in the eigenratio, i.e., a decrease in the synchronizability of brain networks across delta, alpha, beta, and gamma EEG frequencies within the wide range of network costs. The finding indicates the destruction of functional brain networks in early AD.

MADAP, a flexible clustering tool for the interpretation of one-dimensional genome annotation data.

A recurring task in the analysis of mass genome annotation data from high-throughput technologies is the identification of peaks or clusters in a noisy signal profile. Examples of such applications are the definition of promoters on the basis of transcription start site profiles, the mapping of transcription factor binding sites based on ChIP-chip data and the identification of quantitative trait loci (QTL) from whole genome SNP profiles. Input to such an analysis is a set of genome coordinates associated with counts or intensities. The output consists of a discrete number of peaks with respective volumes, extensions and center positions. We have developed for this purpose a flexible one-dimensional clustering tool, called MADAP, which we make available as a web server and as standalone program. A set of parameters enables the user to customize the procedure to a specific problem. The web server, which returns results in textual and graphical form, is useful for small to medium-scale applications, as well as for evaluation and parameter tuning in view of large-scale applications, requiring a local installation. The program written in C++ can be freely downloaded from ftp://ftp.epd.unil.ch/pub/software/unix/madap. The MADAP web server can be accessed at http://www.isrec.isb-sib.ch/madap/.

Task-shifting in the delivery of hormonal contraceptive methods: Validation of a questionnaire and preliminary results.

Guilbert ER, Morin D, Guilbert AC, Gagnon H, Robitaille J, Richardson M. International Journal of Nursing Practice 2011; 17: 315-321 Task-shifting in the delivery of hormonal contraceptive methods: Validation of a questionnaire and preliminary results In order to palliate the access problem to effective contraceptive methods in Quebec, Canada, as well as to legitimate nurses' practices in family planning, a collaborative agreement was developed that allow nurses, in conjunction with pharmacists, to give hormonal contraceptives to healthy women of reproductive age for a 6 month period. Training in hormonal contraception was offered to targeted nurses before they could begin this practice. A questionnaire, based on Rogers's theory of diffusion of innovations, was elaborated and validated to specifically evaluate this phenomenon. Preliminary results show that the translation of training into practice might be suboptimal. The validated questionnaire can now be used to fully understand the set of factors influencing this new practice.