Stratification of the severity of critically ill patients with classification trees

Background: Development of three classification trees (CT) based on the CART (Classification and Regression Trees), CHAID (Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection) and C4.5 methodologies for the calculation of probability of hospital mortality; the comparison of the results with the APACHE II, SAPS II and MPM II-24 scores, and with a model based on multiple logistic regression (LR). Methods: Retrospective study of 2864 patients. Random partition (70:30) into a Development Set (DS) n = 1808 and Validation Set (VS) n = 808. Their properties of discrimination are compared with the ROC curve (AUC CI 95%), Percent of correct classification (PCC CI 95%); and the calibration with the Calibration Curve and the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR CI 95%). Results: CTs are produced with a different selection of variables and decision rules: CART (5 variables and 8 decision rules), CHAID (7 variables and 15 rules) and C4.5 (6 variables and 10 rules). The common variables were: inotropic therapy, Glasgow, age, (A-a)O2 gradient and antecedent of chronic illness. In VS: all the models achieved acceptable discrimination with AUC above 0.7. CT: CART (0.75(0.71-0.81)), CHAID (0.76(0.72-0.79)) and C4.5 (0.76(0.73-0.80)). PCC: CART (72(69- 75)), CHAID (72(69-75)) and C4.5 (76(73-79)). Calibration (SMR) better in the CT: CART (1.04(0.95-1.31)), CHAID (1.06(0.97-1.15) and C4.5 (1.08(0.98-1.16)). Conclusion: With different methodologies of CTs, trees are generated with different selection of variables and decision rules. The CTs are easy to interpret, and they stratify the risk of hospital mortality. The CTs should be taken into account for the classification of the prognosis of critically ill patients.

Preventive and therapeutic strategies in critically ill patients with highly resistant bacteria.

The antibiotic pipeline continues to diminish and the majority of the public remains unaware of this critical situation. The cause of the decline of antibiotic development is multifactorial and currently most ICUs are confronted with the challenge of multidrug-resistant organisms. Antimicrobial multidrug resistance is expanding all over the world, with extreme and pandrug resistance being increasingly encountered, especially in healthcare-associated infections in large highly specialized hospitals. Antibiotic stewardship for critically ill patients translated into the implementation of specific guidelines, largely promoted by the Surviving Sepsis Campaign, targeted at education to optimize choice, dosage, and duration of antibiotics in order to improve outcomes and reduce the development of resistance. Inappropriate antimicrobial therapy, meaning the selection of an antibiotic to which the causative pathogen is resistant, is a consistent predictor of poor outcomes in septic patients. Therefore, pharmacokinetically/pharmacodynamically optimized dosing regimens should be given to all patients empirically and, once the pathogen and susceptibility are known, local stewardship practices may be employed on the basis of clinical response to redefine an appropriate regimen for the patient. This review will focus on the most severely ill patients, for whom substantial progress in organ support along with diagnostic and therapeutic strategies markedly increased the risk of nosocomial infections.

Est-ce qu'en discuter fait la différence ? Opinions de jeunes adultes atteints de maladies chroniques après avoir été transférés vers des soins pour adultes [Does talking about it make a difference? Opinions of chronically ill young adults after being transferred to adult care].

1) Introduction: pour les jeunes souffrant de maladie chronique, l'objectif de la transition vers les soins pour adultes est d'optimiser leur fonctionnement et leur potentiel. Le but de cette étude pilote était d'évaluer si les jeunes adultes souffrant de maladie chronique jugeaient que le passage vers les soins adultes était plus facile lorsque la question de la transition avait été discutée au préalable avec leur pédiatre. 2) Matériel et méthodes: deux groupes de jeunes adultes atteints de maladie chronique ont été identifiés selon l'existence (n = 70) ou non (n = 22) d'une discussion préalable avec leur pédiatre à propos de la transition vers une prise en charge pour adultes. Ces deux groupes ont été comparés pour des variables démographiques et de santé. Les variables significatives en analyse bivariée ont été incluses dans une régression logistique descendante pas à pas. 3) Résultats: les jeunes adultes qui avaient discuté de la transition étaient significativement plus nombreux à se sentir prêts (72,9 % vs 45,5 %) et accompagnés (58,6 % vs 27,3 %) pour le transfert, à avoir consulté leur spécialiste pour adultes (60 % vs 31,8 %) et à voir leur médecin sans la présence de leurs parents (70 % vs 40,9 %). En analyse multivariée, seuls, le fait de se sentir accompagné (odds ratio ajustée [ORa] : 3,56) et celui d'avoir consulté leur spécialiste pour adultes (ORa : 4,14) étaient significatifs. 4) Conclusions: la préparation des jeunes souffrant de maladie chronique au transfert vers les soins pour adultes semble bénéfique. Cependant, le transfert lui-même n'est qu'une petite partie du concept beaucoup plus large de la transition vers la vie adulte. Une transition bien planifiée doit permettre à ces jeunes adultes d'atteindre tout leur potentiel. INTRODUCTION: The goal of transition in healthcare for young people with chronic illnesses is to maximize their functioning and potential. The purpose of this pilot study was to assess whether young adults with chronic illnesses found that the transition to adult care was easier when the transition was discussed in advance with their pediatric specialist. METHODS: Two groups were created according to whether patients had discussed (n=70) or not (n=22) the transition with their pediatric specialist and compared regarding demographic and health-related variables. All the significant variables at the bivariate level were included in a backward stepwise logistic regression. RESULTS: Youth who had discussed the transition were significantly more likely to feel ready for the transfer (72.9% vs 45.5%) and accompanied (58.6% vs 27. %) during transfer, to have consulted their specialist for adults (60.0% vs 31.8%), and seen their doctor without the presence of their parents (70.0% vs 40.9%). At the multivariate level, only feeling accompanied during transfer (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 3.56) and having consulted their specialist for adults (aOR: 4.14) remained significant. CONCLUSIONS: Preparing chronically ill youths for transfer to adult care appears to be beneficial for them. However, transfer is only a small part of the much broader transition that is preparation for adult life. A well-planned transition should allow these young people to reach their full potential.

Glutamine and antioxidants in the critically ill patient: a post hoc analysis of a large-scale randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: The recent large randomized controlled trial of glutamine and antioxidant supplementation suggested that high-dose glutamine is associated with increased mortality in critically ill patients with multiorgan failure. The objectives of the present analyses were to reevaluate the effect of supplementation after controlling for baseline covariates and to identify potentially important subgroup effects. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was a post hoc analysis of a prospective factorial 2 × 2 randomized trial conducted in 40 intensive care units in North America and Europe. In total, 1223 mechanically ventilated adult patients with multiorgan failure were randomized to receive glutamine, antioxidants, both glutamine and antioxidants, or placebo administered separate from artificial nutrition. We compared each of the 3 active treatment arms (glutamine alone, antioxidants alone, and glutamine + antioxidants) with placebo on 28-day mortality. Post hoc, treatment effects were examined within subgroups defined by baseline patient characteristics. Logistic regression was used to estimate treatment effects within subgroups after adjustment for baseline covariates and to identify treatment-by-subgroup interactions (effect modification). RESULTS: The 28-day mortality rates in the placebo, glutamine, antioxidant, and combination arms were 25%, 32%, 29%, and 33%, respectively. After adjusting for prespecified baseline covariates, the adjusted odds ratio of 28-day mortality vs placebo was 1.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.0-2.1, P = .05), 1.2 (0.8-1.8, P = .40), and 1.4 (0.9-2.0, P = .09) for glutamine, antioxidant, and glutamine plus antioxidant arms, respectively. In the post hoc subgroup analysis, both glutamine and antioxidants appeared most harmful in patients with baseline renal dysfunction. No subgroups suggested reduced mortality with supplements. CONCLUSIONS: After adjustment for baseline covariates, early provision of high-dose glutamine administered separately from artificial nutrition was not beneficial and may be associated with increased mortality in critically ill patients with multiorgan failure. For both glutamine and antioxidants, the greatest potential for harm was observed in patients with multiorgan failure that included renal dysfunction upon study enrollment.

Impact of the introduction of real-time therapeutic drug monitoring on empirical doses of carbapenems in critically ill burn patients.

PURPOSE: Adequate empirical antibiotic dose selection for critically ill burn patients is difficult due to extreme variability in drug pharmacokinetics. Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may aid antibiotic prescription and implementation of initial empirical antimicrobial dosage recommendations. This study evaluated how gradual TDM introduction altered empirical dosages of meropenem and imipenem/cilastatin in our burn ICU. METHODS: Imipenem/cilastatin and meropenem use and daily empirical dosage at a five-bed burn ICU were analyzed retrospectively. Data for all burn admissions between 2001 and 2011 were extracted from the hospital's computerized information system. For each patient receiving a carbapenem, episodes of infection were reviewed and scored according to predefined criteria. Carbapenem trough serum levels were characterized. Prior to May 2007, TDM was available only by special request. Real-time carbapenem TDM was introduced in June 2007; it was initially available weekly and has been available 4 days a week since 2010. RESULTS: Of 365 patients, 229 (63%) received antibiotics (109 received carbapenems). Of 23 TDM determinations for imipenem/cilastatin, none exceeded the predefined upper limit and 11 (47.8%) were insufficient; the number of TDM requests was correlated with daily dose (r=0.7). Similar numbers of inappropriate meropenem trough levels (30.4%) were below and above the upper limit. Real-time TDM introduction increased the empirical dose of imipenem/cilastatin, but not meropenem. CONCLUSIONS: Real-time carbapenem TDM availability significantly altered the empirical daily dosage of imipenem/cilastatin at our burn ICU. Further studies are needed to evaluate the individual impact of TDM-based antibiotic adjustment on infection outcomes in these patients.

Japanin musiikkimarkkinat : Japanin pop- ja rock-markkinoiden erityispiirteet suomalaisen musiikin näkökulmasta

Tämän opinnäytetyön tavoite on selvittää suomalaisen pop- ja rock-musiikin vientimahdollisuuksia yhteen maailman kiinnostavimpaan ja ostovoimaisimpaan maahan, Japaniin, ja tuoda esille sen luonnetta suhteessa suomalaiseen musiikkiin. Opinnäytetyön teoriaosa selvittää Suomen tämän hetkistä musiikkiviennin tilannetta ja syitä siihen, miksi Japanin markkinat on erittäin kiinnostava alue viennin saralla. Kirjallinen viitekehys työlle muodostuu pääasiassa kootuista musiikkialan raporteista, tilastoista ja artikkeleista. Empiirisessä osassa keskeistä tutkimusmateriaalia ovat Tokion Suomen Instituutissa kolmen kuukauden työharjoittelun yhteydessä kertyneet kokemukset ja asiantuntijahaastatteluaineisto. Nämä avaavat Japanin musiikkimarkkinoita luoden parempaa kuvaa siellä vallitsevista kilpailuolosuhteista, maan tavoista ja kiinnostuksen kohteista, sekä japanilaisten mielikuvaa suomalaisesta musiikista. Suomessa musiikkimarkkinat ovat hyvin pienet, mutta niiden laajentamiseen viennillä on alettu keskittyä yhä enenevissä määrin. Koska Japanissa on maailman toiseksi suurimmat musiikkimarkkinat, se on erittäin varteenotettava kohde myös suomalaisen musiikin viennille. Vaikka suomalainen musiikki on toistaiseksi suhteellisen tuntematonta suurelle osalle japanilaisista, suhtaudutaan siihen positiivisesti. Japanilaisten mielestä Suomesta tuleva musiikki on verrattuna moniin muihin maihin paljon omaleimaisempaa ja tämä tekee siitä kiinnostavan. Viennissä ongelmia kuitenkin luovat kielimuuri ja japanilaisten kulttuurisidonnaiset toimintatavat. Ilman hyviä suhteita toiminta Japanin musiikkialan kentällä on lähes mahdotonta. Keskeistä on huomioida paikalliset toimintatavat ja toimia kiireettä kaukonäköisesti. Tuotteen kaikkien osa-alueiden tulisi olla suunniteltu Japanin markkinoihin soveltuviksi jo tarjontavaiheessa. Parantaakseen suomalaisen musiikin vientiä Japaniin on tärkeää tuotteiden menestyksien yhteydessä tuoda esille niiden suomalaisuutta ja näin lisätä kiinnostusta japanilaisten silmissä. Lähtökohtaisesti suomalaisella musiikilla on kuitenkin hyvät mahdollisuudet menestykseen Japanin musiikkimarkkinoilla. Suurimpina ongelmina voidaan pitää vähäistä tietoa japanilaisten mielenkiinnon kohteista, toimintatapojen kulttuurisia eroja ja suomalaisten vientiin panostettavien varojen vähyyttä.

Prognostication of Mortality in Critically Ill Patients With Severe Infections.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to confirm the prognostic value of pancreatic stone protein (PSP) in patients with severe infections requiring ICU management and to develop and validate a model to enhance mortality prediction by combining severity scores with biomarkers. METHODS: We enrolled prospectively patients with severe sepsis or septic shock in mixed tertiary ICUs in Switzerland (derivation cohort) and Brazil (validation cohort). Severity scores (APACHE [Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation] II or Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS] II) were combined with biomarkers obtained at the time of diagnosis of sepsis, including C-reactive-protein, procalcitonin (PCT), and PSP. Logistic regression models with the lowest prediction errors were selected to predict in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Mortality rates of patients with septic shock enrolled in the derivation cohort (103 out of 158) and the validation cohort (53 out of 91) were 37% and 57%, respectively. APACHE II and PSP were significantly higher in dying patients. In the derivation cohort, the models combining either APACHE II, PCT, and PSP (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.721; 95% CI, 0.632-0.812) or SAPS II, PCT, and PSP (AUC, 0.710; 95% CI, 0.617-0.802) performed better than each individual biomarker (AUC PCT, 0.534; 95% CI, 0.433-0.636; AUC PSP, 0.665; 95% CI, 0.572-0.758) or severity score (AUC APACHE II, 0.638; 95% CI, 0.543-0.733; AUC SAPS II, 0.598; 95% CI, 0.499-0.698). These models were externally confirmed in the independent validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed the prognostic value of PSP in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock requiring ICU management. A model combining severity scores with PCT and PSP improves mortality prediction in these patients.