Sistemi per la climatizzazione mediante pompe di calore geotermiche e pali energetici

We need a large amount of energy to make our homes pleasantly warm in winter and cool in summer. If we also consider the energy losses that occur through roofs, perimeter walls and windows, it would be more appropriate to speak of waste than consumption. The solution would be to build passive houses, i.e. buildings more efficient and environmentally friendly, able to ensure a drastic reduction of electricity and heating bills. Recently, the increase of public awareness about global warming and environmental pollution problems have “finally” opened wide possibility in the field of sustainable construction by encouraging new renewable methods for heating and cooling space. Shallow geothermal allows to exploit the renewable heat reservoir, present in the soil at depths between 15 and 20 m, for air-conditioning of buildings, using a ground source heat pump. This thesis focuses on the design of an air-conditioning system with geothermal heat pump coupled to energy piles, i.e. piles with internal heat exchangers, for a typical Italian-family building, on the basis of a geological-technical report about a plot of Bologna’s plain provided by Geo-Net s.r.l. The study has involved a preliminary static sizing of the piles in order to calculate their length and number, then the project was completed making the energy sizing, where it has been verified if the building energy needs were met with the static solution obtained. Finally the attention was focused on the technical and economical validity compared to a traditional system (cost-benefit analysis) and on the problem of the uncertainty data design and their effects on the operating and initial costs of the system (sensitivity analysis). To evaluate the performance of the thermal system and the potential use of the piles was also used the PILESIM2 software, designed by Dr. Pahud of the SUPSI’s school.

Study of the circulation processes in the northern Adriatic sea - coastal area and Venice lagoon inlets

This work is a detailed study of hydrodynamic processes in a defined area, the littoral in front of the Venice Lagoon and its inlets, which are complex morphological areas of interconnection. A finite element hydrodynamic model of the Venice Lagoon and the Adriatic Sea has been developed in order to study the coastal current patterns and the exchanges at the inlets of the Venice Lagoon. This is the first work in this area that tries to model the interaction dynamics, running together a model for the lagoon and the Adriatic Sea. First the barotropic processes near the inlets of the Venice Lagoon have been studied. Data from more than ten tide gauges displaced in the Adriatic Sea have been used in the calibration of the simulated water levels. To validate the model results, empirical flux data measured by ADCP probes installed inside the inlets of Lido and Malamocco have been used and the exchanges through the three inlets of the Venice Lagoon have been analyzed. The comparison between modelled and measured fluxes at the inlets outlined the efficiency of the model to reproduce both tide and wind induced water exchanges between the sea and the lagoon. As a second step, also small scale processes around the inlets that connect the Venice lagoon with the Northern Adriatic Sea have been investigated by means of 3D simulations. Maps of vorticity have been produced, considering the influence of tidal flows and wind stress in the area. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to define the importance of the advection and of the baroclinic pressure gradients in the development of vortical processes seen along the littoral close to the inlets. Finally a comparison with real data measurements, surface velocity data from HF Radar near the Venice inlets, has been performed, which allows for a better understanding of the processes and their seasonal dynamics. The results outline the predominance of wind and tidal forcing in the coastal area. Wind forcing acts mainly on the mean coastal current inducing its detachment offshore during Sirocco events and an increase of littoral currents during Bora events. The Bora action is more homogeneous on the whole coastal area whereas the Sirocco strengthens its impact in the South, near Chioggia inlet. Tidal forcing at the inlets is mainly barotropic. The sensitivity analysis shows how advection is the main physical process responsible for the persistent vortical structures present along the littoral between the Venice Lagoon inlets. The comparison with measurements from HF Radar not only permitted a validation the model results, but also a description of different patterns in specific periods of the year. The success of the 2D and the 3D simulations on the reproduction both of the SSE, inside and outside the Venice Lagoon, of the tidal flow, through the lagoon inlets, and of the small scale phenomena, occurring along the littoral, indicates that the finite element approach is the most suitable tool for the investigation of coastal processes. For the first time, as shown by the flux modeling, the physical processes that drive the interaction between the two basins were reproduced.

Bioengineering of exercise: biomechanical and metabolic aspects

The field of research of this dissertation concerns the bioengineering of exercise, in particular the relationship between biomechanical and metabolic knowledge. This relationship can allow to evaluate exercise in many different circumstances: optimizing athlete performance, understanding and helping compensation in prosthetic patients and prescribing exercise with high caloric consumption and minimal joint loading to obese subjects. Furthermore, it can have technical application in fitness and rehabilitation machine design, predicting energy consumption and joint loads for the subjects who will use the machine. The aim of this dissertation was to further understand how mechanical work and metabolic energy cost are related during movement using interpretative models. Musculoskeletal models, when including muscle energy expenditure description, can be useful to address this issue, allowing to evaluate human movement in terms of both mechanical and metabolic energy expenditure. A whole body muscle-skeletal model that could describe both biomechanical and metabolic aspects during movement was identified in literature and then was applied and validated using an EMG-driven approach. The advantage of using EMG driven approach was to avoid the use of arbitrary defined optimization functions to solve the indeterminate problem of muscle activations. A sensitivity analysis was conducted in order to know how much changes in model parameters could affect model outputs: the results showed that changing parameters in between physiological ranges did not influence model outputs largely. In order to evaluate its predicting capacity, the musculoskeletal model was applied to experimental data: first the model was applied in a simple exercise (unilateral leg press exercise) and then in a more complete exercise (elliptical exercise). In these studies, energy consumption predicted by the model resulted to be close to energy consumption estimated by indirect calorimetry for different intensity levels at low frequencies of movement. The use of muscle skeletal models for predicting energy consumption resulted to be promising and the use of EMG driven approach permitted to avoid the introduction of optimization functions. Even though many aspects of this approach have still to be investigated and these results are preliminary, the conclusions of this dissertation suggest that musculoskeletal modelling can be a useful tool for addressing issues about efficiency of movement in healthy and pathologic subjects.

Populationsdynamik des Cydia pomonella Granulovirus

Das Cydia pomonella Granulovirus (CpGV, Fam. Baculoviridae) ist ein sehr virulentes und hoch spezifisches Pathogen des Apfelwicklers (Cydia pomonella), das seit mehreren Jahren in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland und anderen Ländern der EU als Insektizid zugelassen ist. Wie andere Baculoviren auch befällt es die Larven der Insekten und ist aufgrund seiner Selektivität für Nicht-Zielorganismen unbedenklich. In der Vergangenheit konzentrierte sich die Erforschung des CpGV auf Bereiche, die für die Anwendung im Pflanzenschutz relevant waren, wobei nach fast 20 Jahren nach der ersten Zulassung noch immer nicht bekannt ist, ob und wie sich das CpGV in der Umwelt etablieren kann. Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit wurden verschiedene Parameter, mit deren Hilfe die Populationsdynamik des CpGV beschrieben werden kann, analysiert und quantitativ bestimmt. Neben den biologischen Eigenschaften wie Virulenz, DNA-Charakterisierung und Quantifizierung der Virusnachkommenschaft wurden insbesondere die horizontale sowie die vertikale Transmission, die Inaktivierung und die Infektion später Larvenstadien untersucht. Letztlich wurden die ermittelten Parameter zusammen mit Daten aus der Literatur in ein mathematisches Modell integriert. Um die Wahrscheinlichkeit der horizontalen Transmission zu quantifizieren, wurde ein Modellsystem mit losen Äpfeln etabliert, in dem verschiedene Szenarien möglicher horizontaler Transmission unter definierten Laborbedingungen getestet wurden. In Versuchsserien, in denen ein Virusfleck, entsprechend der produzierten Virusmenge einer Eilarve, auf einen Apfel appliziert worden war, war unter den aufgesetzten Apfelwicklerlarven lediglich eine sehr geringe Mortalität von 3 - 6% zu beobachten. Wurde jedoch ein an einer Virusinfektion gestorbener Larvenkadaver als Inokulum verwendet, lag die Mortalitätsrate aufgesetzter Larven bei über 40%. Diese beobachtete hohe horizontale Transmissionsrate konnte mit dem Verhalten der Larven erklärt werden. Die Larven zeigten eine deutliche Einbohrpräferenz für den Stielansatz bzw. den Kelch, wodurch die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Zusammentreffens einer an der Infektion verendeten Larve mit einer gesunden Larve um ein Vielfaches zunahm. In einem ähnlich angelegten Freilandversuch konnte eine horizontale Transmission nicht belegt werden. Der Unterschied zur Kontrollgruppe fiel aufgrund einer hohen natürlichen Mortalität und einer damit einhergehenden niedrigen Dichte der Larven zu gering aus. Parallel hierzu wurde außerdem eine Halbwertszeit von 52 Sonnenstunden für das CpGV ermittelt. Weiterhin konnte festgestellt werden, dass die Mortalität von späteren Larvenstadien, die 14 Tage Zeit hatten sich in die Äpfel einzubohren, bevor eine CpGV-Applikation durchgeführt wurde, ebenso hoch war wie bei Larven, die sich im L1-Stadium auf der Apfeloberfläche infizierten. Aufgrund des höheren Alters jener Larven war der Fraßschaden an befallenen Äpfeln jedoch wesentlich größer und vergleichbar mit dem Fraßschaden einer unbehandelten Kontrolle. Der Versuch zur vertikalen Transmission zeigte dass, obwohl die verwendete Apfelwicklerzucht nicht frei von CpGV war, die Mortalitätsrate der Nachkommen subletal infizierter Weibchen (44%) jedoch deutlich höher war als die der Nachkommen subletal infizierter Männchen (28%) und der unbehandelten Kontrolle (27%). Auch in den PCR-Analysen konnte eine größere Menge an CpGV-Trägern bei den Nachkommen subletal infizierter Weibchen (67%) als bei den Nachkommen subletal infizierter Männchen (49%) und bei der Kontrolle (42%) nachgewiesen werden. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass eine Infektion durch subletal infizierte Weibchen vertikal in die nächste Generation übertragen werden kann. Dies lässt erkennen, dass in der Folgegeneration des Apfelwicklers eine zusätzliche Wirkung des CpGV durch vertikale Transmission auftreten kann. Hierin wäre auch ein potentieller Mechanismus für eine dauerhafte Etablierung des Virus zu sehen. Letztlich wurden alle Parameter, die die CpGV-Apfelwickler-Beziehung beschreiben, in ein mathematisches Modell GRANULO integriert. Nach einer Sensitivitätsanalyse wurde GRANULO teilweise mit Daten aus den Freilandversuchen verifiziert. Durch Modifikation der Virusparameter im Modell konnte anschließend der Einfluss veränderter biologischer Eigenschaften (UV-Stabilität und Transmissionsraten) der Viren in Simulationen theoretisch erprobt werden. Das beschriebene Modell, das allerdings noch einer weitergehenden Verifizierung und Validierung bedarf, ist eine erste Annäherung an die quantitative Erfassung und Modellierung der Populationsdynamik des Systems CpGV-Apfelwickler. Die im Zusammenhang mit der Populationsdynamik des Apfelwicklers erhobenen Daten können einen wertvollen Beitrag zur Optimierung von Kontrollstrategien des Apfelwicklers mittels CpGV leisten. Außerdem geben sie Aufschluss über die Etablierungsmöglichkeiten dieses Bioinsektizids.

Tecniche avanzate per l'analisi di sensitività globale: applicazione alla contaminazione delle acque sotterranee.

The thesis is framed within the field of the stochastic approach to flow and transport themes of solutes in natural porous materials. The methodology used to characterise the uncertainty associated with the modular predictions is completely general and can be reproduced in various contexts. The theme of the research includes the following among its main objectives: (a) the development of a Global Sensitivity Analysis on contaminant transport models in the subsoil to research the effects of the uncertainty of the most important parameters; (b) the application of advanced techniques, such as Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE), for obtaining surrogate models starting from those which conduct traditionally developed analyses in the context of Monte Carlo simulations, characterised by an often not negligible computational burden; (c) the analyses and the understanding of the key processes at the basis of the transport of solutes in natural porous materials using the aforementioned technical and analysis resources. In the complete picture, the thesis looks at the application of a Continuous Injection transport model of contaminants, of the PCE technique which has already been developed and applied by the thesis supervisors, by way of numerical code, to a Slug Injection model. The methodology was applied to the aforementioned model with original contribution deriving from surrogate models with various degrees of approximation and developing a Global Sensitivity Analysis aimed at the determination of Sobol’ indices.

Modeling and simulation of a synthetic genetic circuit that implements a multicelled behavior in a growing microcolony of E. coli

Synthetic Biology is a relatively new discipline, born at the beginning of the New Millennium, that brings the typical engineering approach (abstraction, modularity and standardization) to biotechnology. These principles aim to tame the extreme complexity of the various components and aid the construction of artificial biological systems with specific functions, usually by means of synthetic genetic circuits implemented in bacteria or simple eukaryotes like yeast. The cell becomes a programmable machine and its low-level programming language is made of strings of DNA. This work was performed in collaboration with researchers of the Department of Electrical Engineering of the University of Washington in Seattle and also with a student of the Corso di Laurea Magistrale in Ingegneria Biomedica at the University of Bologna: Marilisa Cortesi. During the collaboration I contributed to a Synthetic Biology project already started in the Klavins Laboratory. In particular, I modeled and subsequently simulated a synthetic genetic circuit that was ideated for the implementation of a multicelled behavior in a growing bacterial microcolony. In the first chapter the foundations of molecular biology are introduced: structure of the nucleic acids, transcription, translation and methods to regulate gene expression. An introduction to Synthetic Biology completes the section. In the second chapter is described the synthetic genetic circuit that was conceived to make spontaneously emerge, from an isogenic microcolony of bacteria, two different groups of cells, termed leaders and followers. The circuit exploits the intrinsic stochasticity of gene expression and intercellular communication via small molecules to break the symmetry in the phenotype of the microcolony. The four modules of the circuit (coin flipper, sender, receiver and follower) and their interactions are then illustrated. In the third chapter is derived the mathematical representation of the various components of the circuit and the several simplifying assumptions are made explicit. Transcription and translation are modeled as a single step and gene expression is function of the intracellular concentration of the various transcription factors that act on the different promoters of the circuit. A list of the various parameters and a justification for their value closes the chapter. In the fourth chapter are described the main characteristics of the gro simulation environment, developed by the Self Organizing Systems Laboratory of the University of Washington. Then, a sensitivity analysis performed to pinpoint the desirable characteristics of the various genetic components is detailed. The sensitivity analysis makes use of a cost function that is based on the fraction of cells in each one of the different possible states at the end of the simulation and the wanted outcome. Thanks to a particular kind of scatter plot, the parameters are ranked. Starting from an initial condition in which all the parameters assume their nominal value, the ranking suggest which parameter to tune in order to reach the goal. Obtaining a microcolony in which almost all the cells are in the follower state and only a few in the leader state seems to be the most difficult task. A small number of leader cells struggle to produce enough signal to turn the rest of the microcolony in the follower state. It is possible to obtain a microcolony in which the majority of cells are followers by increasing as much as possible the production of signal. Reaching the goal of a microcolony that is split in half between leaders and followers is comparatively easy. The best strategy seems to be increasing slightly the production of the enzyme. To end up with a majority of leaders, instead, it is advisable to increase the basal expression of the coin flipper module. At the end of the chapter, a possible future application of the leader election circuit, the spontaneous formation of spatial patterns in a microcolony, is modeled with the finite state machine formalism. The gro simulations provide insights into the genetic components that are needed to implement the behavior. In particular, since both the examples of pattern formation rely on a local version of Leader Election, a short-range communication system is essential. Moreover, new synthetic components that allow to reliably downregulate the growth rate in specific cells without side effects need to be developed. In the appendix are listed the gro code utilized to simulate the model of the circuit, a script in the Python programming language that was used to split the simulations on a Linux cluster and the Matlab code developed to analyze the data.

Model reduction of stochastic groundwater flow and transport processes

This work presents a comprehensive methodology for the reduction of analytical or numerical stochastic models characterized by uncertain input parameters or boundary conditions. The technique, based on the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) theory, represents a versatile solution to solve direct or inverse problems related to propagation of uncertainty. The potentiality of the methodology is assessed investigating different applicative contexts related to groundwater flow and transport scenarios, such as global sensitivity analysis, risk analysis and model calibration. This is achieved by implementing a numerical code, developed in the MATLAB environment, presented here in its main features and tested with literature examples. The procedure has been conceived under flexibility and efficiency criteria in order to ensure its adaptability to different fields of engineering; it has been applied to different case studies related to flow and transport in porous media. Each application is associated with innovative elements such as (i) new analytical formulations describing motion and displacement of non-Newtonian fluids in porous media, (ii) application of global sensitivity analysis to a high-complexity numerical model inspired by a real case of risk of radionuclide migration in the subsurface environment, and (iii) development of a novel sensitivity-based strategy for parameter calibration and experiment design in laboratory scale tracer transport.

"Influence of lower-limb joint models on subject-specific musculoskeletal model predictions during gait" ( "modelli muscoloscheletrici personalizzati dell'arto inferiore: Analisi dell'effetto della modellazione dei giunti sulla predizione dei carichi agenti sul sistema scheletrico durante il cammino").

The aim of the present thesis was to investigate the influence of lower-limb joint models on musculoskeletal model predictions during gait. We started our analysis by using a baseline model, i.e., the state-of-the-art lower-limb model (spherical joint at the hip and hinge joints at the knee and ankle) created from MRI of a healthy subject in the Medical Technology Laboratory of the Rizzoli Orthopaedic Institute. We varied the models of knee and ankle joints, including: knee- and ankle joints with mean instantaneous axis of rotation, universal joint at the ankle, scaled-generic-derived planar knee, subject-specific planar knee model, subject-specific planar ankle model, spherical knee, spherical ankle. The joint model combinations corresponding to 10 musculoskeletal models were implemented into a typical inverse dynamics problem, including inverse kinematics, inverse dynamics, static optimization and joint reaction analysis algorithms solved using the OpenSim software to calculate joint angles, joint moments, muscle forces and activations, joint reaction forces during 5 walking trials. The predicted muscle activations were qualitatively compared to experimental EMG, to evaluate the accuracy of model predictions. Planar joint at the knee, universal joint at the ankle and spherical joints at the knee and at the ankle produced appreciable variations in model predictions during gait trials. The planar knee joint model reduced the discrepancy between the predicted activation of the Rectus Femoris and the EMG (with respect to the baseline model), and the reduced peak knee reaction force was considered more accurate. The use of the universal joint, with the introduction of the subtalar joint, worsened the muscle activation agreement with the EMG, and increased ankle and knee reaction forces were predicted. The spherical joints, in particular at the knee, worsened the muscle activation agreement with the EMG. A substantial increase of joint reaction forces at all joints was predicted despite of the good agreement in joint kinematics with those of the baseline model. The introduction of the universal joint had a negative effect on the model predictions. The cause of this discrepancy is likely to be found in the definition of the subtalar joint and thus, in the particular subject’s anthropometry, used to create the model and define the joint pose. We concluded that the implementation of complex joint models do not have marked effects on the joint reaction forces during gait. Computed results were similar in magnitude and in pattern to those reported in literature. Nonetheless, the introduction of planar joint model at the knee had positive effect upon the predictions, while the use of spherical joint at the knee and/or at the ankle is absolutely unadvisable, because it predicted unrealistic joint reaction forces.

Neural network modelling of the wave-structure interaction processes

This thesis presents a new Artificial Neural Network (ANN) able to predict at once the main parameters representative of the wave-structure interaction processes, i.e. the wave overtopping discharge, the wave transmission coefficient and the wave reflection coefficient. The new ANN has been specifically developed in order to provide managers and scientists with a tool that can be efficiently used for design purposes. The development of this ANN started with the preparation of a new extended and homogeneous database that collects all the available tests reporting at least one of the three parameters, for a total amount of 16’165 data. The variety of structure types and wave attack conditions in the database includes smooth, rock and armour unit slopes, berm breakwaters, vertical walls, low crested structures, oblique wave attacks. Some of the existing ANNs were compared and improved, leading to the selection of a final ANN, whose architecture was optimized through an in-depth sensitivity analysis to the training parameters of the ANN. Each of the selected 15 input parameters represents a physical aspect of the wave-structure interaction process, describing the wave attack (wave steepness and obliquity, breaking and shoaling factors), the structure geometry (submergence, straight or non-straight slope, with or without berm or toe, presence or not of a crown wall), or the structure type (smooth or covered by an armour layer, with permeable or impermeable core). The advanced ANN here proposed provides accurate predictions for all the three parameters, and demonstrates to overcome the limits imposed by the traditional formulae and approach adopted so far by some of the existing ANNs. The possibility to adopt just one model to obtain a handy and accurate evaluation of the overall performance of a coastal or harbor structure represents the most important and exportable result of the work.

Calcoli di sezioni d'urto efficaci di riflettore in sistemi PWR di terza generazione

La corretta modellizzazione della zona del riflettore dei sistemi GEN III+ è un passaggio fondamentale per un’accurata predizione dei parametri di cella il cui valore influenza direttamente la distribuzione di potenza su tutto il nocciolo. Tale esigenza si è resa ancora più stringente dopo la constatazione che il fenomeno del “tilt power” risulta essere più amplificato nei noccioli nucleari equipaggiati con un riflettore pesante. Per tali ragioni, nel presente lavoro di tesi si è dedicata particolare attenzione alle metodiche di modellizzazione ed alla generazione delle sezioni d’urto efficaci omogenee ed agli assembly discontinuity factors (ADF) nella zona di riflessione. Il codice deterministico utilizzato per il calcolo è SCALE 6.1.3. La notevole differenza nelle proprietà neutroniche associata ad un’elevata eterogeneità geometrica tra un nocciolo ed un riflettore hanno suggerito di effettuare un’analisi preliminare sul sistema riflettente GEN II proposto nel benchmark NEA-NSC-DOC (2013) per testare la capacità di SCALE 6.1.3 di effettuare un corretto calcolo di cella adottando una modellizzazione monodimensionale assembly/riflettore. I risultati ottenuti sono confrontati con quelli presentati nel benchmark e e con quelli valutati attraverso il codice Monte Carlo SERPENT 2.0 confermando la capacità di calcolo di SCALE 6.1.3. L’analisi sulla modellizzazione dei sistemi riflettenti GEN III+ è stata effettuata ricavando il valore dei parametri di cella per configurazioni omogenee ed una serie di configurazioni geometriche esatte che comprendono tutte le modellizzazioni del sistema riflettente lungo la direzione angolare del riflettore. Si è inoltre effettuata un’analisi di sensitività su parametri operativi e sui parametri di codice. Si è infine effettuato un calcolo in color-set per indagare l’influenza degli effetti 2-D sui parametri di cella. I risultati prodotti rappresentano un contributo migliorativo nella conoscenza dei parametri di cella di riflettore e potranno essere utilizzati per una più precisa valutazione del fenomeno del tilt nei sistemi GEN III+.

Transmission dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis affect the impact of screening programmes

To assess the impact of screening programmes in reducing the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis, mathematical and computational models are used as a guideline for decision support. Unfortunately, large uncertainties exist about the parameters that determine the transmission dynamics of C. trachomatis. Here, we use a SEIRS (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible) model to critically analyze the turnover of C. trachomatis in a population and the impact of a screening programme. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the most important steps during an infection with C. trachomatis. Varying the fraction of the infections becoming symptomatic as well as the duration of the symptomatic period within the range of previously used parameter estimates has little effect on the transmission dynamics. However, uncertainties in the duration of temporary immunity and the asymptomatic period can result in large differences in the predicted impact of a screening programme. We therefore analyze previously published data on the persistence of asymptomatic C. trachomatis infection in women and estimate the mean duration of the asymptomatic period to be longer than anticipated so far, namely 433 days (95% CI: 420-447 days). Our study shows that a longer duration of the asymptomatic period results in a more pronounced impact of a screening programme. However, due to the slower turnover of the infection, a substantial reduction in prevalence can only be achieved after screening for several years or decades.

Stress and Strain Adaptation in Load-Dependent Remodeling of the Embryonic Left Ventricle

Altered pressure in the developing left ventricle (LV) results in altered morphology and tissue material properties. Mechanical stress and strain may play a role in the regulating process. This study showed that confocal microscopy, three-dimensional reconstruction, and finite element analysis can provide a detailed model of stress and strain in the trabeculated embryonic heart. The method was used to test the hypothesis that end-diastolic strains are normalized after altered loading of the LV during the stages of trabecular compaction and chamber formation. Stage-29 chick LVs subjected to pressure overload and underload at stage 21 were reconstructed with full trabecular morphology from confocal images and analyzed with finite element techniques. Measured material properties and intraventricular pressures were specified in the models. The results show volume-weighted end-diastolic von Mises stress and strain averaging 50–82% higher in the trabecular tissue than in the compact wall. The volume-weighted-average stresses for the entire LV were 115, 64, and 147Pa in control, underloaded, and overloaded models, while strains were 11, 7, and 4%; thus, neither was normalized in a volume-weighted sense. Localized epicardial strains at mid-longitudinal level were similar among the three groups and to strains measured from high-resolution ultrasound images. Sensitivity analysis showed changes in material properties are more significant than changes in geometry in the overloaded strain adaptation, although resulting stress was similar in both types of adaptation. These results emphasize the importance of appropriate metrics and the role of trabecular tissue in evaluating the evolution of stress and strain in relation to pressure-induced adaptation.

Deglaciation records of 17O-excess in East Antarctica: reliable reconstruction of oceanic relative humidity from coastal sites

We measured δ17O and δ18O in two Antarctic ice cores at EPICA Dome C (EDC) and TALDICE (TD), respectively and computed 17O-excess with respect to VSMOW. The comparison of our 17O-excess data with the previous record obtained at Vostok (Landais et al., 2008) revealed differences up to 35 ppm in 17O-excess mean level and evolution for the three sites. Our data showed that the large increase depicted at Vostok (20 ppm) during the last deglaciation, is a regional and not a general pattern in the temporal distribution of 17O-excess in East Antarctica. The EDC data display an increase of 13 ppm, whereas the TD data show no significant variation from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Early Holocene (EH). Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic revealed very different source regions for Vostok and EDC compared to TD. These findings combined with the results of a sensitivity analysis, using a Rayleigh-type isotopic model, suggest that relative humidity (RH) at the oceanic source region (OSR) are a determining factor for the spatial differences of 17O-excess in East Antarctica. However, 17O-excess in remote sites of continental Antarctica (e.g. Vostok) may be highly sensitive to local effects. Hence, we consider 17O-excess in coastal East Antarctic ice cores (TD) to be more reliable as a proxy for RH at the OSR.

Effects of drilling and stress release on hydraulic properties and porewater chemistry of crystalline rocks

The experimental verification of matrix diffusion in crystalline rocks largely relies on indirect methods performed in the laboratory. Such methods are prone to perturbations of the rock samples by collection and preparation and therefore the laboratory-derived transport properties and fluid composition might not represent in situ conditions. We investigated the effects induced by the drilling process and natural rock stress release by mass balance considerations and sensitivity analysis of analytical out-diffusion data obtained from originally saturated, large-sized drillcore material from two locations drilled using traced drilling fluid. For in situ stress-released drillcores of quartz-monzodiorite composition from the Aspo HRL, Sweden, tracer mass balance considerations and 1D and 2D diffusion modelling consistently indicated a contamination of <1% of the original pore water. This chemically disturbed zone extends to a maximum of 0.1 mm into the drillcore (61.8 mm x 180.1 mm) corresponding to about 0.66% of the total pore volume (0.77 vol.%). In contrast, the combined effects of stress release and the drilling process, which have influenced granodioritic drillcore material from 560 m below surface at Forsmark. Sweden, resulted in a maximum contamination of the derived porewater Cl(-) concentration of about 8%. The mechanically disturbed zone with modified diffusion properties covers the outermost similar to 6 mm of the drillcore (50 mm x 189 mm), whereas the chemically disturbed zone extends to a maximum of 0.3 mm based on mass balance considerations, and to 0.15 mm to 0.2 mm into the drillcore based on fitting the observed tracer data. This corresponds to a maximum of 2.4% of the total pore volume (0.62 vol.%) being affected by the drilling-fluid contamination. The proportion of rock volume affected initially by drilling fluid or subsequently with experiment water during the laboratory diffusion and re-saturation experiments depends on the size of the drillcore material and will become larger the smaller the sample used for the experiment. The results are further in support of matrix diffusion taking place in the undisturbed matrix of crystalline rocks at least in the cm range.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study

Background New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. Methodology/Principal Findings The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995–1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. Conclusions/Significance The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.