Type II Errors in IO Multipliers

This paper compares methods for calculating Input-Output (IO) Type II multipliers. These are formulations of the standard Leontief IO model which endogenise elements of household consumption. An analytical comparison of the two basic IO Type II multiplier methods with the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach identifies the treatment of non-wage income generated in production as a central problem. The multiplier values for each of the IO and SAM methods are calculated using Scottish data for 2009. These results can be used to choose which Type II IO multiplier to adopt where SAM multiplier values are unavailable.

Tracking cost savings from competitive tendering in the short and long run

A major initiative of the Thatcher and Major Conservative administrations was that public sector ancillary and professional services provided by incumbent direct service organisations [DSOs] be put out to tender. Analyses of this initiative, in the UK and elsewhere, found costs were often reduced in the short run. However, few if any studies went beyond the first round of tendering. We analyze data collected over successive rounds of tendering for cleaning and catering services of Scottish hospitals in order to assess the long term consequences of this initiative. The experience of the two services was very different. Cost savings for cleaning services tended to increase with each additional round of tendering and became increasingly stable. In accordance with previous results in the literature, DSOs produced smaller cost reductions than private contractors: probably an inevitable consequence of the tendering process at the time. Cost savings from DSOs tended to disappear during the first round of tendering, but they appear to have been more permanent in successive rounds. Cost savings for catering, on the other hand, tended to be much smaller, and these were not sustained.

21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36-55% of alpine species, 31-51% of subalpine species and 19-46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070-2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.

La correspondencia entre Robert Moray y Christiaan Huygens (1661-1669): encuentros y desencuentros en la promoción del conocimiento

Sir Robert Moray (1608/9-1673) fue un soldado, cortesano y "hombre de ciencia" escocés, que estuvo en el exilio durante el período de Oliver Cromwell. Poco después de su regreso a Inglaterra en 1660 y gracias en gran medida a su amistad con Carlos II, aparece vinculado al grupo que formará la Royal Society de Londres y será nombrado el primer presidente de la institución durante los primeros meses. Moray ha sido reconocido como una figura imprescindible para entender la consolidación de la Royal Society. Establece, además, una correspondencia muy importante con Christiaan Huygens, en donde aparecen tratados temas de gran relevancia en la década de 1660, tales como la determinación de la longitud en el mar mediante el uso del reloj de péndulo y la construcción y experimentación con la máquina neumática (emblema del proyecto experimental de Robert Boyle). En esta correspondencia aparecen reflejadas, así mismo, las tensiones sobre los problemas de prioridad en diferentes áreas de conocimiento. Una de estas agrias polémicas es la que enfrenta a James Gregory y a Huygens, que acabará con la relación epistolar entre Moray y el sabio holandés.

General Palliative Care Guidance for Control of Pain in Patients with Cancer (PDF 56 KB)

This document is intended to be a practical clinical guideline for the control of pain in patients with cancer. Its target group is hospital staff, primary care team members and nursing home staff. It attempts to apply the clinical principles outlined in the document 'Control of Pain in Patients with Cancer' published by "Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network" (SIGN). This document has been adapted with the permission of SIGN. Rigour of Development A full evidence based reference list is available with the SIGN document. This can be accessed at www.sign.ac.uk. Contents not based on the SIGN document are referenced separately. This document has been developed as one part of the recommendations identified in the Regional Review of Palliative Care Services, 'Partnerships in Caring'. The development of these Pain Guidelines was led by the Northern Ireland Group of the National Council for Hospice and Specialist Palliative Care, whose membership is detailed in Appendix 4. They will be reviewed and updated in two years. A wide consultation process with potential users was undertaken. åÊ åÊ

Els catalans de sentiment nacional espanyol i el seu suport a la sobirania : Condicions i Drets.

L'objecte d'aquest treball final del Màster d'Anàlisi Política de la UOC (2008) és fer una reflexió basada en casos de diversos països de característiques similars a Catalunya, seguida de propostes estratègiques i de decisions a prendre sobre les condicions i seguretats que podrien fer decantar la població catalana de sentiment nacional espanyol cap a un vot favorable a la independència en un referèndum sobiranista.

A Survey of NHS Services for Opiate Dependents in Scotland

The aim of this study was to investigate the range of opiates available within the Scottish NHS for patients with opiate dependancy and to assess the process underlying clinical decision-making. Clinicians, representitives of drug action teams and NHS personnel were apporached and semi-structured phone conversations were the primary means to elicit information. Whilst methadone is almost universally prescribed in Scotland, buprenorphine, dihydrocodeine (not currently licensed for opiate dependance management), lofexidine and naltrexone are also used. Alternative therapies are variably used.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

A guide to working in partnership: employability provision for drug users.

The aim of this guide is to identify the key principles of partnership working and to provide case study examples of how partnership works in practice in employability provision for drug users. Developing and sustaining new and valuable relationships with the world beyond drugs is a key factor in sustainable recovery for drug users. This includes the worlds of employment, training and education. Research suggests that employment can aid the process of recovery. A qualitative study of drug users in Scotland highlighted the importance of employment and other activities to fill the ‘void’ left by drug useThis resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

The Road to Recovery: A New Approach to Tackling Scotland's Drug Problem

The Scottish National Drugs Strategy requires the 22 regional Drug Action Teams to prepare and submit to the Scottish Executive annual action plans for tackling drug misuse in their areas. These plans should address national and local priorities, including their contribution to the achievement of national targets. These comprise three parts: Part A provides an overview of the DAT structures and working; Part B provides detailed information on current local services and Part C reports plans for 2003/04.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

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Research on individual social policy preferences has highlighted a number of socio-structural cleavages as determinants. Studies investigating public opinion on the various redistributive schemes that make up today's welfare states have shown the relevance of class-related factors such as income or education as key explanatory variables (Ferrera 1993; Taylor-Gooby 1995, 1998; and Svallfors 1997). More recent studies, however, have suggested that other factors are also likely to play a role. Among these, the most important are age, gender, and individual values (Armingeon 2006; Deitch 2004; and Roller 2000, 2002). The scenario that emerges from the existing literature is one of multiple intersecting cleavages, but it remains unclear as to what today is the relative weight and specific impact of each of these cleavages.

Explaining Fiscal Balances with a Simultaneous Equation Model of Revenue and Expenditure : A Case Study of Swiss Cantons Using Panel Data

Empirical literature on the analysis of the efficiency of measures for reducing persistent government deficits has mainly focused on the direct explanation of deficit. By contrast, this paper aims at modeling government revenue and expenditure within a simultaneous framework and deriving the fiscal balance (surplus or deficit) equation as the difference between the two variables. This setting enables one to not only judge how relevant the explanatory variables are in explaining the fiscal balance but also understand their impact on revenue and/or expenditure. Our empirical results, obtained by using a panel data set on Swiss Cantons for the period 1980-2002, confirm the relevance of the approach followed here, by providing unambiguous evidence of a simultaneous relationship between revenue and expenditure. They also reveal strong dynamic components in revenue, expenditure, and fiscal balance. Among the significant determinants of public fiscal balance we not only find the usual business cycle elements, but also and more importantly institutional factors such as the number of administrative units, and the ease with which people can resort to political (direct democracy) instruments, such as public initiatives and referendum.

The Relevance of the Principal-Agent Model for the Analysis of Public Policies : Do the Objectives Conflict ?

This paper aims to provide empirical support for the use of the principal-agent framework in the analysis of public sector and public policies. After reviewing the different conditions to be met for a relevant analysis of the relationship between population and government using the principal-agent theory, our paper focuses on the assumption of conflicting goals between the principal and the agent. A principal-agent analysis assumes in effect that inefficiencies may arise because principal and agent pursue different goals. Using data collected during an amalgamation project of two Swiss municipalities, we show the existence of a gap between the goals of the population and those of the government. Consequently, inefficiencies as predicted by the principal-agent model may arise during the implementation of a public policy, i.e. an amalgamation project. In a context of direct democracy where policies are regularly subjected to referendum, the conflict of objectives may even lead to a total failure of the policy at the polls.

Dapagliflozina

Dapagliflozin is a new oral antidiabetic agent whose mechanism of action increases renal glucose excretion, independently of insulin secretion or insulin action. The efficacy of dapagliflozin is dependent on renal function. The use of dapagliflozin has been licensed to improve glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus as: - monotherapy when diet and exercise alone do not provide adequate glycaemic control in patients for whom the use of metformin is considered inappropriate due to intolerance. - Add-on combination therapy with other glucose-lowering agents including insulin, when these, together with diet and exercise, do not provide adequate glycaemic control. Funding has been restricted to the use of dapagliflozin, prior approval, as dual therapy in combination with metformin. This report aims to assess the efficacy and safety of dapagliflozin in the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus, rate the added therapeutic value of dapagliflozin in type 2 diabetes mellitus and identify its current place in therapy. A systematic literature search was carried out, for the purpose of this evaluation, using PubMed, Embase, Cochrane and IDIS databases as well as other secondary sources of evidence-based medicine, therapeutic bulletins and national and international drug agencies. Following the critical reading and analysis of the selected articles, a summary is made out of the scientific evidence available, using Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) criteria. Only one randomised clinical trial, out of the ten trials found, was considered to be a suitable comparison (versus a dual therapy in combination with the sulfonylurea glipizide in patients inadequately controlled with metformin, diet and exercise). No trials have evaluated variables of relevance to patients, except for safety variables. The main efficacy variable in the trials was the change from baseline in HbA1c, except for a study which evaluated the change from baseline in total body weight as main variable. Baseline characteristics of the patients enrolled in the trials significantly differ from those of the population with diabetes in our society which tend to be of an older age and have a longer history of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The major limitation of dapagliflozin derives from its mechanism of action, since its efficacy decreases as renal function declines. The use of dapagliflozin is not recommended in patients with moderate to severe renal impairment ((CrCl<60ml/min or GFG <60 ml/min/1.73 m2) nor in elderly patients, in which a decrease in renal function can be expected. The assessment of safety includes the incidence and rate of discontinuations due to adverse events, episodes of hypoglycaemia, signs or symptoms of genital and urinary tract infections, dehydration, hypovolaemia and hypotension. Further pharmacoepidemiological studies are to be carried out to clarify the long-term effects of dapagliflozin on renal function and the potential effect in the development of breast and bladder tumours. Dapagliflozin as monotherapy has not been evaluated against adequate comparators (sulfonylureas, pioglitazone, gliptins). In combination therapy with metformin, the efficacy of dapagliflozin was shown to be non-inferior to glipizide plus metformin, resulting in a mean reduction of 0.52% in HbA1c, with a difference of 0.00 among both groups (95% CI: -0.11 a 0.11). There are no comparative data against other second-line treatment options. As shown in the studies, the overall incidence of adverse events with dapagliflozin as monotherapy (21.5%) was similar to that observed with placebo, and greater to that observed with metformin (15.4%). Hypoglycaemia of any type was the adverse event more frequently reported. The incidence of severe hypoglycaemic events observed in most of the studies was low. The overall incidence of adverse events observed in the study that compared dapagliflozin+metformin against glipizide+metformin was similar for both groups (27%) and incidence of hypoglycaemic events with dapagliflozin (3.5%) was significantly lower to that observed with glipizide (40.8%). Reductions of body weight of about 2 to 3 kg and a slight decrease in blood pressure (1 to 5 mmHg) have been observed in all studies in the groups treated with dapagliflozin together with diet and exercise. Dosing scheme (every 24 hours) is similar to other oral antidiabetic agents and its cost is similar to that for gliptines and higher to that for sulfonylureas or generic pioglitazone. Funding has been limited to the use of dapagliflozin as dual therapy regimen in combination with metformin as an option for patients with contraindication or intolerance to sulfonylureas, such a those experiencing frequent hypoglycaemic events, weight loss associated risks, as long as they are under 75 years of age and have no moderate to severe renal impairment. In the light of the above, we consider dapagliflozin means no therapeutic innovation in the therapy of type 2 diabetes mellitus over other therapeutic alternatives available.

The Relationship between Media and Political Agendas : Variations across Decision-Making Phases

Previous studies have demonstrated that the extent to which media coverage influences the issue priorities of policy makers is contingent on the type of issue, media, and political agenda. This article contends that the relationship between media and political agendas varies across the phases of the decision-making process. Based on a comprehensive dataset on issue attention in media coverage and various policy-making channels covering the years 1996-2003, the article analyses the level of media coverage and, more importantly, the distribution and correspondence of issue attention between media and political agendas across the four successive phases of the decision-making process (initiation, preparatory, parliamentary, and referendum phases) in Switzerland. Despite inversely distributed levels of attention for successive decision-making phases, both media and political agendas are concentrated on fewer issues in the initiation and referendum phases, and they are more strongly correlated in the most decisive stages of the process, that is, the preparatory and referendum phases.

Ex-post survey on the consequences and perceptions about amalgamation : The case of two Swiss municipalities

In 2006, two municipalities located in the canton of Fribourg (Switzerland), La Tour-de-Trême and Bulle, amalgamated. In this study, we report on the evolution of citizen perceptions as well as try to better understand the reasons behind the respondents various positions concerning this new political and territorial entity. Five-hundred individuals were surveyed almost four years after the amalgamation came into effect. Our results show that if the amalgamation was voted again, it would be necessary to be particularly attentive to citizen access to municipal offices and to local service provisions, to citizen identification to their municipality as well as to the life of the local associations. Indeed, these are clearly important issues for small localities. Furthermore, citizens of the newly amalgamated municipality are mostly sensitive to access to municipal offices and to contact with local representatives. Improving the population's perceptions of these particular issues could lead to a 12 percentage point increase in support for the amalgamation.