Clear-sky biases in satellite infrared estimates of upper tropospheric humidity and its trends

We use microwave retrievals of upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) to estimate the impact of clear-sky-only sampling by infrared instruments on the distribution, variability and trends in UTH. Our method isolates the impact of the clear-sky-only sampling, without convolving errors from other sources. On daily time scales IR-sampled UTH contains large data gaps in convectively active areas, with only about 20-30 % of the tropics (30 S­ 30 N) being sampled. This results in a dry bias of about -9 %RH in the area-weighted tropical daily UTH time series. On monthly scales, maximum clear-sky bias (CSB) is up to -30 %RH over convectively active areas. The magnitude of CSB shows significant correlations with UTH itself (-0.5) and also with the variability in UTH (-0.6). We also show that IR-sampled UTH time series have higher interannual variability and smaller trends compared to microwave sampling. We argue that a significant part of the smaller trend results from the contrasting influence of diurnal drift in the satellite measurements on the wet and dry regions of the tropics.

Measuring quality of life in aphasia: results from two scales

Background: Although aphasia affects quality of life (QoL), the impact within specific domains (e.g., psychosocial, communication) is poorly understood. Moreover, the complex and multidimensional nature of QoL renders it difficult to measure accurately using a single global scale. Aims: Using two recently developed QoL scales, the Stroke and Aphasia Quality of Life Scale-39, (SAQOL; Hilari, Byng, Lamping, & Smith, 2003a) and the American Speech Language Hearing Association’s Quality of Communication Life Scale (QCL; Paul et al., 2004), this study aimed to document the domains of QoL that were most affected for participants with aphasia compared to control participants, as well as to determine the relationship between the two scales, their sub-domains, and linguistic variables in aphasia. Methods & Procedures: The two scales were administered to a group of 19 participants with aphasia (14 male, 5 female), ages ranging from 27 to 79 years, and 19 age- and gender-matched control participants. Various types and severity of aphasia were represented in the aphasia group. The performances of aphasia and control groups were compared, and correlation analyses examined the relationship between the two scales and their sub-domains in the aphasia group only. Outcomes & Results: Compared to control participants, QoL was lower in participants with aphasia, with the communication sub-domain of SAQOL and socialisation/ activities sub-domain of QCL being the most affected areas of functioning. Between the two scales, the communication sub-domain of SAQOL correlated with the socialisation/ activities sub-domain and the QCL mean. Moreover, linguistic variables correlated strongly with psychosocial, communication and socialisation/activities sub-domains of QoL. Conclusions: Measuring QoL using the SAQOL and the QCL captures different but equally important aspects of experiences of living with aphasia. When interpreted together, they provide a holistic picture of functioning in aphasia that includes broad overviews of QoL from the SAQOL and a finer-grained analysis of communication impairments on QoL from the QCL.

Weighing up the ODDs: options, development and diversification

The growing trend of development and diversification in the British countryside stems from three main causes: the decline in farm incomes, the growing influx of non-agricultural commerce into rural areas and a change in planning policies. Even before the foot and mouth disaster, farm incomes have been in decline over the last five years, falling by as much as 90% overall in that period according to the figures issued by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF). Farmers have responded to this situation in many ways, but notably through diversification. This paper examines some of the options available.

Large-scale length and time scales for use with stochastic convective parameterization

Many numerical models for weather prediction and climate studies are run at resolutions that are too coarse to resolve convection explicitly, but too fine to justify the local equilibrium assumed by conventional convective parameterizations. The Plant-Craig (PC) stochastic convective parameterization scheme, developed in this paper, solves this problem by removing the assumption that a given grid-scale situation must always produce the same sub-grid-scale convective response. Instead, for each timestep and gridpoint, one of the many possible convective responses consistent with the large-scale situation is randomly selected. The scheme requires as input the large-scale state as opposed to the instantaneous grid-scale state, but must nonetheless be able to account for genuine variations in the largescale situation. Here we investigate the behaviour of the PC scheme in three-dimensional simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium, demonstrating in particular that the necessary space-time averaging required to produce a good representation of the input large-scale state is not in conflict with the requirement to capture large-scale variations. The resulting equilibrium profiles agree well with those obtained from established deterministic schemes, and with corresponding cloud-resolving model simulations. Unlike the conventional schemes the statistics for mass flux and rainfall variability from the PC scheme also agree well with relevant theory and vary appropriately with spatial scale. The scheme is further shown to adapt automatically to changes in grid length and in forcing strength.

Steering across scales: applying Strategic-Relational Approach to a study of land mobilisation for road widening in Kochi

This paper argues for the relevance of paying attention to structuring participation processes across scales as one of the ways in which participation of multi-organisational partnerships that involve conflicting interests might be managed. Issue wise the paper deals with problems in connection with land mobilisation for road widening in complex and concentrated high value urban settings. It discusses a case study of plan implementation involving individual landowners, the land development market, the local government, other governmental and non-governmental organisations and the state government, which together achieved objectives that seemed impossible at first sight. In theoretical terms, the paper engages with Jessop's (2001) Strategic-Relational Approach (SRA), arguing for its potential for informing action in a way that is capable of achieving steering outputs. The claim for SRA is demonstrated by re-examining the case study. The factors that come through as SRA is applied are drawn out and it is suggested that the theory though non-deterministic, helps guide action by highlighting certain dynamics of systems that can be used for institutional intervention. These dynamics point to the importance of paying attention to scale and the way in which participation and negotiation processes are structured so as to favour certain outcomes rather than others

Breakdown of hydrostatic balance at convective scales in the forecast errors in the Met Office Unified Model

For data assimilation in numerical weather prediction, the initial forecast-error covariance matrix Pf is required. For variational assimilation it is particularly important to prescribe an accurate initial matrix Pf, since Pf is either static (in the 3D-Var case) or constant at the beginning of each assimilation window (in the 4D-Var case). At large scales the atmospheric flow is well approximated by hydrostatic balance and this balance is strongly enforced in the initial matrix Pf used in operational variational assimilation systems such as that of the Met Office. However, at convective scales this balance does not necessarily hold any more. Here we examine the extent to which hydrostatic balance is valid in the vertical forecast-error covariances for high-resolution models in order to determine whether there is a need to relax this balance constraint in convective-scale data assimilation. We use the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) and a 1.5 km resolution version of the Unified Model for a case study characterized by the presence of convective activity. An ensemble of high-resolution forecasts valid up to three hours after the onset of convection is produced. We show that at 1.5 km resolution hydrostatic balance does not hold for forecast errors in regions of convection. This indicates that in the presence of convection hydrostatic balance should not be enforced in the covariance matrix used for variational data assimilation at this scale. The results show the need to investigate covariance models that may be better suited for convective-scale data assimilation. Finally, we give a measure of the balance present in the forecast perturbations as a function of the horizontal scale (from 3–90 km) using a set of diagnostics. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Detecting insect pollinator declines on regional and global scales.

Recently there has been considerable concern about declines in bee communities in agricultural and natural habitats. The value of pollination to agriculture, provided primarily by bees, is >$200 billion/year worldwide, and in natural ecosystems it is thought to be even greater. However, no monitoring program exists to accurately detect declines in abundance of insect pollinators; thus, it is difficult to quantify the status of bee communities or estimate the extent of declines. We used data from 11 multiyear studies of bee communities to devise a program to monitor pollinators at regional, national, or international scales. In these studies, 7 different methods for sampling bees were used and bees were sampled on 3 different continents. We estimated that a monitoring program with 200–250 sampling locations each sampled twice over 5 years would provide sufficient power to detect small (2–5%) annual declines in the number of species and in total abundance and would cost U.S.$2,000,000. To detect declines as small as 1% annually over the same period would require >300 sampling locations. Given the role of pollinators in food security and ecosystem function, we recommend establishment of integrated regional and international monitoring programs to detect changes in pollinator communities.

Biodiversity conservation across scales: lessons from a science–policy dialogue

One of the core challenges of biodiversity conservation is to better understand the interconnectedness and interactions of scales in ecological and governance processes. These interrelationships constitute not only a complex analytical challenge but they also open up a channel for deliberative discussions and knowledge exchange between and among various societal actors which may themselves be operating at various scales, such as policy makers, land use planners, members of NGOs, and researchers. In this paper, we discuss and integrate the perspectives of various disciplines academics and stakeholders who participated in a workshop on scales of European biodiversity governance organised in Brussels in the autumn of 2010. The 23 participants represented various governmental agencies and NGOs from the European, national, and sub-national levels. The data from the focus group discussions of the workshop were analysed using qualitative content analysis. The core scale-related challenges of biodiversity policy identified by the participants were cross-level and cross-sector limitations as well as ecological, social and social-ecological complexities that potentially lead to a variety of scale-related mismatches. As ways to address these cha- llenges the participants highlighted innovations, and an aim to develop new interdisciplinary approaches to support the processes aiming to solve current scale challenges.

Contrasting the responses of three different ground-based instruments to energetic electron precipitation

In order to make best use of the opportunities provided by space missions such as the Radiation Belt Storm Probes, we determine the response of complementary subionospheric radiowave propagation measurements (VLF), riometer absorption measurements (CNA), and GPS-produced total electron content (vTEC) to different energetic electron precipitation (EEP). We model the relative sensitivity and responses of these instruments to idealised monoenergetic beams of precipitating electrons, and more realistic EEP spectra chosen to represent radiation belts and substorm precipitation. In the monoenergetic beam case, we find riometers are more sensitive to the same EEP event occurring during the day than during the night, while subionospheric VLF shows the opposite relationship, and the change in vTEC is independent. In general, the subionospheric VLF measurements are much more sensitive than the other two techniques for EEP over 200 keV, responding to flux magnitudes two-three orders of magnitude smaller than detectable by a riometer. Detectable TEC changes only occur for extreme monoenergetic fluxes. For the radiation belt EEP case, clearly detectable subionospheric VLF responses are produced by daytime fluxes that are ~10 times lower than required for riometers, while nighttime fluxes can be 10,000 times lower. Riometers are likely to respond only to radiation belt fluxes during the largest EEP events and vTEC is unlikely to be significantly disturbed by radiation belt EEP. For the substorm EEP case both the riometer absorption and the subionospheric VLF technique respond significantly, as does the change in vTEC, which is likely to be detectable at ~3-4 TECu.

Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales

This study focuses on the analysis of winter (October-November-December-January-February-March; ONDJFM) storm events and their changes due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations over Europe. In order to assess uncertainties that are due to model formulation, 4 regional climate models (RCMs) with 5 high resolution experiments, and 4 global general circulation models (GCMs) are considered. Firstly, cyclone systems as synoptic scale processes in winter are investigated, as they are a principal cause of the occurrence of extreme, damage-causing wind speeds. This is achieved by use of an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm applied to GCMs. Secondly, changes in extreme near-surface wind speeds are analysed. Based on percentile thresholds, the studied extreme wind speed indices allow a consistent analysis over Europe that takes systematic deviations of the models into account. Relative changes in both intensity and frequency of extreme winds and their related uncertainties are assessed and related to changing patterns of extreme cyclones. A common feature of all investigated GCMs is a reduced track density over central Europe under climate change conditions, if all systems are considered. If only extreme (i.e. the strongest 5%) cyclones are taken into account, an increasing cyclone activity for western parts of central Europe is apparent; however, the climate change signal reveals a reduced spatial coherency when compared to all systems, which exposes partially contrary results. With respect to extreme wind speeds, significant positive changes in intensity and frequency are obtained over at least 3 and 20% of the European domain under study (35–72°N and 15°W–43°E), respectively. Location and extension of the affected areas (up to 60 and 50% of the domain for intensity and frequency, respectively), as well as levels of changes (up to +15 and +200% for intensity and frequency, respectively) are shown to be highly dependent on the driving GCM, whereas differences between RCMs when driven by the same GCM are relatively small.

In-situ comparison of the NOy instruments flown in MOZAIC and SPURT

Two aircraft instruments for the measurement of total odd nitrogen (NOy) were compared side by side aboard a Learjet A35 in April 2003 during a campaign of the AFO2000 project SPURT (Spurengastransport in der Tropopausenregion). The instruments albeit employing the same measurement principle (gold converter and chemiluminescence) had different inlet configurations. The ECO-Physics instrument operated by ETH-Zürich in SPURT had the gold converter mounted outside the aircraft, whereas the instrument operated by FZ-Jülich in the European project MOZAIC III (Measurements of ozone, water vapour, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides aboard Airbus A340 in-service aircraft) employed a Rosemount probe with 80 cm of FEP-tubing connecting the inlet to the gold converter. The NOy concentrations during the flight ranged between 0.3 and 3 ppb. The two data sets were compared in a blind fashion and each team followed its normal operating procedures. On average, the measurements agreed within 7%, i.e. within the combined uncertainty of the two instruments. This puts an upper limit on potential losses of HNO3 in the Rosemount inlet of the MOZAIC instrument. Larger transient deviations were observed during periods after calibrations and when the aircraft entered the stratosphere. The time lag of the MOZAIC instrument observed in these instances is in accordance with the time constant of the MOZAIC inlet line determined in the laboratory for HNO3.