Time-lapse monitoring of climate effects on earthworks using surface waves

The UK’s transportation network is supported by critical geotechnical assets (cuttings/embankments/dams) that require sustainable, cost-effective management, while maintaining an appropriate service level to meet social, economic, and environmental needs. Recent effects of extreme weather on these geotechnical assets have highlighted their vulnerability to climate variations. We have assessed the potential of surface wave data to portray the climate-related variations in mechanical properties of a clay-filled railway embankment. Seismic data were acquired bimonthly from July 2013 to November 2014 along the crest of a heritage railway embankment in southwest England. For each acquisition, the collected data were first processed to obtain a set of Rayleigh-wave dispersion and attenuation curves, referenced to the same spatial locations. These data were then analyzed to identify a coherent trend in their spatial and temporal variability. The relevance of the observed temporal variations was also verified with respect to the experimental data uncertainties. Finally, the surface wave dispersion data sets were inverted to reconstruct a time-lapse model of S-wave velocity for the embankment structure, using a least-squares laterally constrained inversion scheme. A key point of the inversion process was constituted by the estimation of a suitable initial model and the selection of adequate levels of spatial regularization. The initial model and the strength of spatial smoothing were then kept constant throughout the processing of all available data sets to ensure homogeneity of the procedure and comparability among the obtained VS sections. A continuous and coherent temporal pattern of surface wave data, and consequently of the reconstructed VS models, was identified. This pattern is related to the seasonal distribution of precipitation and soil water content measured on site.

Time-lapse monitoring of fluid induced geophysical property variations within an unstable earthwork using P-wave refraction

A significant portion of the UK’s transportation system relies on a network of geotechnical earthworks (cuttings and embankments) that were constructed more than 100 years ago, whose stability is affected by the change in precipitation patterns experienced over the past few decades. The vulnerability of these structures requires a reliable, cost- and time-effective monitoring of their geomechanical condition. We have assessed the potential application of P-wave refraction for tracking the seasonal variations of seismic properties within an aged clay-filled railway embankment, located in southwest England. Seismic data were acquired repeatedly along the crest of the earthwork at regular time intervals, for a total period of 16 months. P-wave first-break times were picked from all available recorded traces, to obtain a set of hodocrones referenced to the same spatial locations, for various dates along the surveyed period of time. Traveltimes extracted from each acquisition were then compared to track the pattern of their temporal variability. The relevance of such variations over time was compared with the data experimental uncertainty. The multiple set of hodocrones was subsequently inverted using a tomographic approach, to retrieve a time-lapse model of VPVP for the embankment structure. To directly compare the reconstructed VPVP sections, identical initial models and spatial regularization were used for the inversion of all available data sets. A consistent temporal trend for P-wave traveltimes, and consequently for the reconstructed VPVP models, was identified. This pattern could be related to the seasonal distribution of precipitation and soil-water content measured on site.

Time-lapse Monitoring of the Slopes of a Heritage Earthwork by Means of Near-surface Seismic Techniques

A significant portion of UK’s infrastructures earthworks was built more than 100 years ago, without modern construction standards: poor maintenance and the change of precipitations pattern experienced in the past decades are currently compromising their stability, leading to an increasing number of failures. To address the need for a reliable and time-efficient monitoring of earthworks at risk of failure we propose here the use of two established seismic techniques for the characterization of the near surface, MASW and P-wave refraction. We have regularly collected MASW and P-wave refraction data, from March 2014 to February 2015, along 4 reduced-scale seismic lines located on the flanks of a heritage railway embankment located in Broadway, SW of England. We have observed a definite temporal variability in terms of phase velocities of SW dispersion curves and of P-wave travel times. The accurate choice of ad-hoc inversion strategies has allowed to reconstruct reliable VP and VS models through which it is potentially possible to track the temporal variations of geo-mechanical properties of the embankment slopes. The variability over time of seismic data and seismic velocities seems to correlate well with rainfall data recorded in the days immediately preceding the date of acquisition.

Effect of major lifestyle risk factors, independent and jointly, on life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease: results from the Consortium on Health and Ageing Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Seldom have studies taken account of changes in lifestyle habits in the elderly, or investigated their impact on disease-free life expectancy (LE) and LE with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using data on subjects aged 50+ years from three European cohorts (RCPH, ESTHER and Tromsø), we used multi-state Markov models to calculate the independent and joint effects of smoking, physical activity, obesity and alcohol consumption on LE with and without CVD. Men and women aged 50 years who have a favourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, non-smoker and participates in vigorous physical activity) lived between 7.4 (in Tromsø men) and 15.7 (in ESTHER women) years longer than those with an unfavourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, smoker and does not participate in physical activity). The greater part of the extra life years was in terms of "disease-free" years, though a healthy lifestyle was also associated with extra years lived after a CVD event. There are sizeable benefits to LE without CVD and also for survival after CVD onset when people favour a lifestyle characterized by salutary behaviours. Remaining a non-smoker yielded the greatest extra years in overall LE, when compared to the effects of routinely taking physical activity, being overweight but not obese, and drinking in moderation. The majority of the overall LE benefit is in disease free years. Therefore, it is important for policy makers and the public to know that prevention through maintaining a favourable lifestyle is "never too late".

Smartphone and GPS technology for freeroaming dog population surveillance -a methodological study (Studio metodologico sull’applicazione di smartphone e tecnologia GPS alla sorveglianza delle popolazioni di cani vaganti)

Free-roaming dogs (FRD) represent a potential threat to the quality of life in cities from an ecological, social and public health point of view. One of the most urgent concerns is the role of uncontrolled dogs as reservoirs of infectious diseases transmittable to humans and, above all, rabies. An estimate of the FRD population size and characteristics in a given area is the first step for any relevant intervention programme. Direct count methods are still prominent because of their non-invasive approach, information technologies can support such methods facilitating data collection and allowing for a more efficient data handling. This paper presents a new framework for data collection using a topological algorithm implemented as ArcScript in ESRI® ArcGIS software, which allows for a random selection of the sampling areas. It also supplies a mobile phone application for Android® operating system devices which integrates Global Positioning System (GPS) and Google Maps™. The potential of such a framework was tested in 2 Italian regions. Coupling technological and innovative solutions associated with common counting methods facilitate data collection and transcription. It also paves the way to future applications, which could support dog population management systems.

Pet population management and public health:A web service based tool for the improvement of dog traceability

The risks associated with zoonotic infections transmitted by companion animals are a serious public health concern: the control of zoonoses incidence in domestic dogs, both owned and stray, is hence important to protect human health. Integrated dog population management (DPM) programs, based on the availability of information systems providing reliable data on the structure and composition of the existing dog population in a given area, are fundamental for making realistic plans for any disease surveillance and action system. Traceability systems, based on the compulsory electronic identification of dogs and their registration in a computerised database, are one of the most effective ways to ensure the usefulness of DPM programs. Even if this approach provides many advantages, several areas of improvement have emerged in countries where it has been applied. In Italy, every region hosts its own dog register but these are not compatible with one another. This paper shows the advantages of a web-based-application to improve data management of dog regional registers. The approach used for building this system was inspired by farm animal traceability schemes and it relies on a network of services that allows multi-channel access by different devices and data exchange via the web with other existing applications, without changing the pre-existing platforms. Today the system manages a database for over 300,000 dogs registered in three different Italian regions. By integrating multiple Web Services, this approach could be the solution to gather data at national and international levels at reasonable cost and creating a traceability system on a large scale and across borders that can be used for disease surveillance and development of population management plans. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Behavioural and physiological responses of shelter dogs to long-term confinement

In Italy, National Law (281/1991) prohibits euthanasia of shelter dogs if they are not dangerous or suffering seriously. Adoption rates in rescue shelters are often lower than entrance rates, leading inevitably to overcrowded facilities where animals are likely to spend the rest of their lives in kennels. In this situation, housing conditions (i.e. space provided, environmental, and social stimulation) may have an impact on canine welfare. In this research project, the effects of two different forms of housing (group- and pair housing) on long-term shelter dogs were compared using behavioural and physiological parameters. Observational data and saliva samples were collected from dogs exposed to both experimental settings; behaviour and cortisol concentration levels were used as welfare indicators. Pair housing offered fewer social and environmental stimuli and behavioural analysis showed a significant decrease in locomotor, exploratory, and social behaviour. Cortisol levels show that this parameter varied independently of housing conditions. Although this study found no evidence suggesting that one form of confinement reduced animal welfare more than the other (e.g. in terms of abnormal behaviour, or higher cortisol concentrations), the type of confinement did affect the expression of a variety of behaviours and these variations should not be ignored with respect to housing decisions for long-term shelter dogs.

Distant activity of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in 2014: Ground-based results during the Rosetta pre-landing phase

As the ESA Rosetta mission approached, orbited, and sent a lander to comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in 2014, a large campaign of ground-based observations also followed the comet. We constrain the total activity level of the comet by photometry and spectroscopy to place Rosetta results in context and to understand the large-scale structure of the comet's coma pre-perihelion. We performed observations using a number of telescopes, but concentrate on results from the 8m VLT and Gemini South telescopes in Chile. We use R-band imaging to measure the dust coma contribution to the comet's brightness and UV-visible spectroscopy to search for gas emissions, primarily using VLT/FORS. In addition we imaged the comet in near-infrared wavelengths (JHK) in late 2014 with Gemini-S/Flamingos 2. We find that the comet was already active in early 2014 at heliocentric distances beyond 4 au. The evolution of the total activity (measured by dust) followed previous predictions. No gas emissions were detected despite sensitive searches. The comet maintains a similar level of activity from orbit to orbit, and is in that sense predictable, meaning that Rosetta results correspond to typical behaviour for this comet. The gas production (for CN at least) is highly asymmetric with respect to perihelion, as our upper limits are below the measured production rates for similar distances post-perihelion in previous orbits.

Quantification of the smoking-associated cancer risk with rate advancement periods: meta-analysis of individual participant data from cohorts of the CHANCES consortium

BACKGROUND: Smoking is the most important individual risk factor for many cancer sites but its association with breast and prostate cancer is not entirely clear. Rate advancement periods (RAPs) may enhance communication of smoking related risk to the general population. Thus, we estimated RAPs for the association of smoking exposure (smoking status, time since smoking cessation, smoking intensity, and duration) with total and site-specific (lung, breast, colorectal, prostate, gastric, head and neck, and pancreatic) cancer incidence and mortality.

METHODS: This is a meta-analysis of 19 population-based prospective cohort studies with individual participant data for 897,021 European and American adults. For each cohort we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of smoking exposure with cancer outcomes using Cox regression adjusted for a common set of the most important potential confounding variables. RAPs (in years) were calculated as the ratio of the logarithms of the HRs for a given smoking exposure variable and age. Meta-analyses were employed to summarize cohort-specific HRs and RAPs.

RESULTS: Overall, 140,205 subjects had a first incident cancer, and 53,164 died from cancer, during an average follow-up of 12 years. Current smoking advanced the overall risk of developing and dying from cancer by eight and ten years, respectively, compared with never smokers. The greatest advancements in cancer risk and mortality were seen for lung cancer and the least for breast cancer. Smoking cessation was statistically significantly associated with delays in the risk of cancer development and mortality compared with continued smoking.

CONCLUSIONS: This investigation shows that smoking, even among older adults, considerably advances, and cessation delays, the risk of developing and dying from cancer. These findings may be helpful in more effectively communicating the harmful effects of smoking and the beneficial effect of smoking cessation.

Burden of Cancer in a Large Consortium of Prospective Cohorts in Europe

BACKGROUND: Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) are an indicator of mortality, morbidity, and disability. We calculated DALYs for cancer in middle-aged and older adults participating in the Consortium on Health and Ageing Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES) consortium.

METHODS: A total of 90 199 participants from five European cohorts with 10 455 incident cancers and 4399 deaths were included in this study. DALYs were calculated as the sum of the years of life lost because of premature mortality (YLLs) and the years lost because of disability (YLDs). Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were also estimated for five cancer risk factors, ie, smoking, adiposity, physical inactivity, alcohol intake, and type II diabetes.

RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 12 years, the total number of DALYs lost from cancer was 34 474 (382 per 1000 individuals) with a similar distribution by sex. Lung cancer was responsible for the largest number of lost DALYs (22.9%), followed by colorectal (15.3%), prostate (10.2%), and breast cancer (8.7%). Mortality (81.6% of DALYs) predominated over disability. Ever cigarette smoking was the risk factor responsible for the greatest total cancer burden (24.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 22.2% to 26.0%), followed by physical inactivity (4.9%, 95% CI = 0.8% to 8.1%) and adiposity (1.8%, 95% CI = 0.2% to 2.8%).

CONCLUSIONS: DALYs lost from cancer were substantial in this large European sample of middle-aged and older adults. Even if the burden of disease because of cancer is predominantly caused by mortality, some cancers have sizeable consequences for disability. Smoking remained the predominant risk factor for total cancer burden.

Secure Tropos: A Security-Oriented Extension of the Tropos methodology

Although security plays an important role in the development of multiagent systems, a careful analysis of software development processes shows that the definition of security requirements is, usually, considered after the design of the system. One of the reasons is the fact that agent oriented software engineering methodologies have not integrated security concerns throughout their developing stages. The integration of security concerns during the whole range of the development stages can help towards the development of more secure multiagent systems. In this paper we introduce extensions to the Tropos methodology to enable it to model security concerns throughout the whole development process. A description of the new concepts and modelling activities is given along with a discussion on how these concepts and modelling activities are integrated to the current stages of Tropos. A real life case study from the health and social care sector is used to illustrate the approach.

Software protection

A computer system's security can be compromised in many ways—a denial-of-service attack can make a server inoperable, a worm can destroy a user's private data, or an eavesdropper can reap financial rewards by inserting himself in the communication link between a customer and her bank through a man-in-the-middle (MITM) attack. What all these scenarios have in common is that the adversary is an untrusted entity that attacks a system from the outside—we assume that the computers under attack are operated by benign and trusted users. But if we remove this assumption, if we allow anyone operating a computer system—from system administrators down to ordinary users—to compromise that system's security, we find ourselves in a scenario that has received comparatively little attention.