Necessary and sufficient conditions for robust stability using modal intervals

In this paper, robustness of parametric systems is analyzed using a new approach to interval mathematics called Modal Interval Analysis. Modal Intervals are an interval extension that, instead of classic intervals, recovers some of the properties required by a numerical system. Modal Interval Analysis not only simplifies the computation of interval functions but allows semantic interpretation of their results. Necessary, sufficient and, in some cases, necessary and sufficient conditions for robust performance are presented

Leprosy reactions: the effect of gender and household contacts

Various host-related factors have been reported as relevant risk factors for leprosy reactions. To support a new hypothesis that an antigenic load in local tissues that is sufficient to trigger the immune response may come from an external supply of Mycobacterium leprae organisms, the prevalence of reactional leprosy was assessed against the number of household contacts. The number of contacts was ascertained at diagnosis in leprosy patients coming from an endemic area of Brazil. The prevalence of reactions (patients with reactions/total patients) was fitted by binomial regression and the risk difference (RD) was estimated with a semi-robust estimation of variance as a measure of effect. Five regression models were fitted. Model 1 included only the main exposure variable "number of household contacts"; model 2 included all four explanatory variables ("contacts", "fertile age", "number of skin lesions" and "bacillary index") that were found to be associated with the outcome upon univariate analysis; models 3-5 contained various combinations of three predictors. Male and female patients were analyzed separately. In females, household contacts were a significant predictor for leprosy reactions in model 1 [crude RD = 0.06; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.01; 0.12] and model 5 (RD = 0.05; CI = 0.02; 0.09), which included contacts, bacillary index and skin lesions as predictors. Other models were unsatisfactory because the joint presence of fertile age and bacillary index was a likely source of multicollinearity. No significant results were obtained for males. The likely interpretation of our findings might suggest that in female patients, leprosy reactions may be triggered by an external spreading of M. leprae by healthy carrier family members. The small number of observations is an obvious limitation of our study which requires larger confirmatory studies.

Estimation of the lateral correlation structure of subsurface water content from surface-based ground-penetrating radar reflection images

Over the past decade, significant interest has been expressed in relating the spatial statistics of surface-based reflection ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data to those of the imaged subsurface volume. A primary motivation for this work is that changes in the radar wave velocity, which largely control the character of the observed data, are expected to be related to corresponding changes in subsurface water content. Although previous work has indeed indicated that the spatial statistics of GPR images are linked to those of the water content distribution of the probed region, a viable method for quantitatively analyzing the GPR data and solving the corresponding inverse problem has not yet been presented. Here we address this issue by first deriving a relationship between the 2-D autocorrelation of a water content distribution and that of the corresponding GPR reflection image. We then show how a Bayesian inversion strategy based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling can be used to estimate the posterior distribution of subsurface correlation model parameters that are consistent with the GPR data. Our results indicate that if the underlying assumptions are valid and we possess adequate prior knowledge regarding the water content distribution, in particular its vertical variability, this methodology allows not only for the reliable recovery of lateral correlation model parameters but also for estimates of parameter uncertainties. In the case where prior knowledge regarding the vertical variability of water content is not available, the results show that the methodology still reliably recovers the aspect ratio of the heterogeneity.

Intelligent PCA contribution analysis for quality estimation in batch processes. Application in a sequencing batch reactor for wastewater treatment

En aquest treball, es proposa un nou mètode per estimar en temps real la qualitat del producte final en processos per lot. Aquest mètode permet reduir el temps necessari per obtenir els resultats de qualitat de les anàlisi de laboratori. S'utiliza un model de anàlisi de componentes principals (PCA) construït amb dades històriques en condicions normals de funcionament per discernir si un lot finalizat és normal o no. Es calcula una signatura de falla pels lots anormals i es passa a través d'un model de classificació per la seva estimació. L'estudi proposa un mètode per utilitzar la informació de les gràfiques de contribució basat en les signatures de falla, on els indicadors representen el comportament de les variables al llarg del procés en les diferentes etapes. Un conjunt de dades compost per la signatura de falla dels lots anormals històrics es construeix per cercar els patrons i entrenar els models de classifcació per estimar els resultas dels lots futurs. La metodologia proposada s'ha aplicat a un reactor seqüencial per lots (SBR). Diversos algoritmes de classificació es proven per demostrar les possibilitats de la metodologia proposada.

Event-free survival at 24 months is a robust end point for disease-related outcome in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with immunochemotherapy.

PURPOSE: Studies of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) are typically evaluated by using a time-to-event approach with relapse, re-treatment, and death commonly used as the events. We evaluated the timing and type of events in newly diagnosed DLBCL and compared patient outcome with reference population data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL treated with immunochemotherapy were prospectively enrolled onto the University of Iowa/Mayo Clinic Specialized Program of Research Excellence Molecular Epidemiology Resource (MER) and the North Central Cancer Treatment Group NCCTG-N0489 clinical trial from 2002 to 2009. Patient outcomes were evaluated at diagnosis and in the subsets of patients achieving event-free status at 12 months (EFS12) and 24 months (EFS24) from diagnosis. Overall survival was compared with age- and sex-matched population data. Results were replicated in an external validation cohort from the Groupe d'Etude des Lymphomes de l'Adulte (GELA) Lymphome Non Hodgkinien 2003 (LNH2003) program and a registry based in Lyon, France. RESULTS: In all, 767 patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL who had a median age of 63 years were enrolled onto the MER and NCCTG studies. At a median follow-up of 60 months (range, 8 to 116 months), 299 patients had an event and 210 patients had died. Patients achieving EFS24 had an overall survival equivalent to that of the age- and sex-matched general population (standardized mortality ratio [SMR], 1.18; P = .25). This result was confirmed in 820 patients from the GELA study and registry in Lyon (SMR, 1.09; P = .71). Simulation studies showed that EFS24 has comparable power to continuous EFS when evaluating clinical trials in DLBCL. CONCLUSION: Patients with DLBCL who achieve EFS24 have a subsequent overall survival equivalent to that of the age- and sex-matched general population. EFS24 will be useful in patient counseling and should be considered as an end point for future studies of newly diagnosed DLBCL.

Temporal variation of wing geometry in Aedes albopictus

Although native to the tropical and subtropical areas of Southeast Asia, Aedes albopictus is now found on five continents, primarily due to its great capacity to adapt to different environments. This species is considered a secondary vector of dengue virus in several countries. Wing geometric morphometrics is widely used to furnish morphological markers for the characterisation and identification of species of medical importance and for the assessment of population dynamics. In this work, we investigated the metric differentiation of the wings of Ae. albopictus samples collected over a four-year period (2007-2010) in São Paulo, Brazil. Wing size significantly decreased during this period for both sexes and the wing shape also changed over time, with the wing shapes of males showing greater differences after 2008 and those of females differing more after 2009. Given that the wings play sex-specific roles, these findings suggest that the males and females could be affected by differential evolutionary pressures. Consistent with this hypothesis, a sexually dimorphic pattern was detected and quantified: the females were larger than the males (with respect to the mean) and had a distinct wing shape, regardless of allometric effects. In conclusion, wing alterations, particularly those involving shape, are a sensitive indicator of microevolutionary processes in this species.

Performance de l'estimation du poids foetal par echographie pour les foetus < or = 2000 g et les macrosomes (> or = 4000 g) [Performance of ultrasound estimation of fetal weight in fetuses weighing < or = 2000 g and more than 4000 g].

Decreasing perinatal morbidity and mortality is one of the main goals of obstetrics. Prognosis of preterm births depends on gestational age and birthweight. Multidisciplinary management is discussed with the parents according to these two parameters. In other circumstances, a suspected macrosomy will influence the management of the last weeks of pregnancy. Induction of labor or Cesarean delivery will be considered to avoid shoulder dystocia, brachial plexus injury or perinatal asphyxia. Birthweight needs to be estimated with accuracy, and this article describes the efficiency of various ultrasound weight estimation formulae for small and large fetuses.

A Bayesian approach for pervasive estimation of breaststroke velocity using a wearable IMU

A ubiquitous assessment of swimming velocity (main metric of the performance) is essential for the coach to provide a tailored feedback to the trainee. We present a probabilistic framework for the data-driven estimation of the swimming velocity at every cycle using a low-cost wearable inertial measurement unit (IMU). The statistical validation of the method on 15 swimmers shows that an average relative error of 0.1 ± 9.6% and high correlation with the tethered reference system (rX,Y=0.91 ) is achievable. Besides, a simple tool to analyze the influence of sacrum kinematics on the performance is provided.

Nonparametric estimation of Value-at-Risk

A method to estimate an extreme quantile that requires no distributional assumptions is presented. The approach is based on transformed kernel estimation of the cumulative distribution function (cdf). The proposed method consists of a double transformation kernel estimation. We derive optimal bandwidth selection methods that have a direct expression for the smoothing parameter. The bandwidth can accommodate to the given quantile level. The procedure is useful for large data sets and improves quantile estimation compared to other methods in heavy tailed distributions. Implementation is straightforward and R programs are available.

Estimation of the real population and its impact on the utilisation of healthcare services in Mediterranean resort regions: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND The demographic structure has a significant influence on the use of healthcare services, as does the size of the population denominators. Very few studies have been published on methods for estimating the real population such as tourist resorts. The lack of information about these problems means there is a corresponding lack of information about the behaviour of populational denominators (the floating population or tourist load) and the effect of this on the use of healthcare services. The objectives of the study were: a) To determine the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) ratio, per person per day, among populations of known size; b) to estimate, by means of this ratio, the real population in an area where tourist numbers are very significant; and c) to determine the impact on the utilisation of hospital emergency healthcare services of the registered population, in comparison to the non-resident population, in two areas where tourist numbers are very significant. METHODS An ecological study design was employed. We analysed the Healthcare Districts of the Costa del Sol and the island of Menorca. Both are Spanish territories in the Mediterranean region. RESULTS In the two areas analysed, the correlation coefficient between the MSW ratio and admissions to hospital emergency departments exceeded 0.9, with p < 0.001. On the basis of MSW generation ratios, obtained for a control zone and also measured in neighbouring countries, we estimated the real population. For the summer months, when tourist activity is greatest and demand for emergency healthcare at hospitals is highest, this value was found to be double that of the registered population. CONCLUSION The MSW indicator, which is both ecological and indirect, can be used to estimate the real population in areas where population levels vary significantly during the year. This parameter is of interest in planning and dimensioning the provision of healthcare services.

Estimation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult male survival in an urban area in Panama

Traditional mosquito control strategies rely heavily on the use of chemical insecticides. However, concerns about the efficiency of traditional control methods, environmental impact and emerging pesticide resistance have highlighted the necessity for developing innovative tools for mosquito control. Some novel strategies, including release of insects carrying a dominant lethal gene (RIDL®), rely on the sustained release of modified male mosquitoes and therefore benefit from a thorough understanding of the biology of the male of the species. In this report we present the results of a mark-release-recapture study aimed at: (i) establishing the survival in the field of laboratory-reared, wild-type male Aedes aegypti and (b) estimating the size of the local adult Ae. aegypti population. The study took place in Panama, a country where recent increases in the incidence and severity of dengue cases have prompted health authorities to evaluate alternative strategies for vector control. Results suggest a life expectancy of 2.3 days for released male mosquitoes (confidence interval: 1.78-2.86). Overall, the male mosquito population was estimated at 58 males/ha (range 12-81 males/ha), which can be extrapolated to an average of 0.64 pupae/person for the study area. The practical implications of these results are discussed.