824 resultados para Risk evaluation


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It is widely accepted that hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS), aortic valve stenosis with or without bicuspid aortic valve (AS/BAV) and coarctation of the aorta (CoA) occur in families more commonly with each other than with any other congenital heart defect (CHD). Genetic counseling for CHDs is currently based on empiric risk estimates derived from data collected on all types of CHDs between 1968 and 1990. Additionally, for the specific group of defects described above, termed left-sided lesions, estimates are available for sibling recurrence. Utilizing family history data from 757 probands recruited between 1997 and 2007 from The Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, this study reassessed the pre/recurrence risks for LSLs specifically. Sibling pre/recurrence risks for HLHS (5.5%, 95% CI: 3.1%-8.9%), CoA (4.0%, 95% CI: 2.1%-6.7%), and AS/BAV (6.0%, 95% CI: 3.3%-9.8%) were higher than currently quoted risks based on sibling data for individual LSLs. Additionally, the prevalence of BAV in 202, apparently unaffected, parents of 134 probands was assessed by echocardiography. BAV, which occurs at a frequency of 1% in the general population, was found to occur in approximately 10% of parents of LSL probands. Lastly, among affected first-degree relative pairs (i.e. siblings, parent-offspring), the majority (65%-70%) were both affected with a LSL. Defect specific concordance rates were highest for AS/BAV. Together, these findings suggest that over the past 20 years with changing diagnostic capabilities and environmental/maternal conditions (e.g. folic acid fortification, increased maternal diabetes and obesity) recurrence risks may have increased, as compared to current LSL specific risk estimates. Based on these risk estimate increases and prior studies, a protocol for screening first-degree relatives of LSL probands should be devised.

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Low parental monitoring is related to youth risk behaviors such as delinquency and aggression. The purpose of this dissertation was to describe the development and evaluation of a parent education intervention to increase parental monitoring in Hispanic parents of middle school children.^ The first study described the process of intervention mapping as used to develop Padres Trabajando por la Paz, a newsletter intervention for parents. Using theory, empirical literature, and information from the target population, performance objectives and determinants for monitoring were defined. Learning objectives were specified and a staged social-cognitive approach was used to develop methods and strategies delivered through newsletters.^ The second study examined the outcomes of a randomized trial of the newsletter intervention. Outcome measures consisted of a general measure of monitoring, parent and child reports of monitoring behaviors targeted by the intervention, and psychosocial determinants of monitoring (self-efficacy, norms, outcome expectancies, knowledge, and beliefs). Seventy-seven parents completed the randomized trial, half of which received four newsletters over an eight-week period. Results revealed a significant interaction effect for baseline and treatment for parent's reports of norms for monitoring (p =.009). Parents in the experimental condition who scored low at baseline reported increased norms for monitoring at follow-up. A significant interaction effect for child reports of parental monitoring behaviors (p =.04) reflected an small increase across baseline levels in the experimental condition and decreases for the control condition at higher baseline scores. Both groups of parents reported increased levels of monitoring at follow-up. No other outcome measures varied significantly by condition.^ The third study examined the relationship between the psychosocial determinants of parental monitoring and parental monitoring behaviors in the study population. Weak evidence for a relationship between outcome expectancies and parental monitoring behaviors suggests further research in the area utilizing stronger empirical models such as longitudinal design and structural equation modeling.^ The low-cost, minimal newsletter intervention showed promise for changing norms among Hispanic parents for parental monitoring. In light of the importance of parental monitoring as a protective factor for youth health risk behaviors, more research needs to be done to develop and evaluate interventions to increase parental monitoring. ^

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A process evaluation of the Houston Childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention Program, 1992-1995, was conducted. The Program's goal is to reduce lead poisoning prevalence. The study proposed to determine to what extent the Program was implemented as planned by measuring how well Program services were actually: (1) received by the intended target population; (2) delivered to children with elevated blood lead levels; (3) delivered in compliance with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Program guidelines and timetables; and (4) able to reduce lead poisoning prevalence among those rescreened. Utilizing a program monitoring design, the Program's pre-collected computer records were reviewed. The study sample consisted of 820 children whose blood lead levels were above 15 micrograms per deciLiter, representing approximately 2.9% of the 28,406 screened over this period. Three blood lead levels from each participant were examined: the initial elevated result; the confirmatory result; and the next rescreen result, after the elevated confirmatory level. Results showed that the Program screened approximately 18% (28,406 of 161,569) of Houston's children under age 6 years for lead poisoning. Based on Chi-square tests of significance, results also showed that lead-poisoned participants were more likely to be younger than 3 years, male and Hispanic, compared to those not lead poisoned. The age, gender and ethnic differences observed were statistically significant (p =.01, p =.00, p =.00). Four of the six Program services: medical evaluations, rescreening, environmental inspections and confirmation, had satisfactory delivery completion rates of 71%-98%. Delivery timetable compliance rates for three of the six services examined: outreach contacts, home visits and environmental inspections were below 32%. However, dangerously elevated blood lead levels fell and lead poisoning prevalence dropped from 3.3% at initial screening to 1.2% among those rescreened, after intervention. From a public health perspective, reductions in lead poisoning prevalence are very meaningful. Based on these findings, the following are recommendations for future research: (1) integrate Program database files by utilizing a computer database management program; (2) target services at Hispanic male children under age 3 years living in the highest risk neighborhoods; (3) increase resources to: improve tracking and documentation of service delivery and provide more non-medical case management and environmental services; and (4) share the evaluation methodology/findings with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention administrators; the implications may be relevant to other program managers conducting such assessments. ^

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Objective: To determine the prevalence of and the relationships between the degree and source of hyperandrogenemia, ovulatory patterns and cardiovascular disease risk indicators (blood pressure, indices or amount of obesity and fat distribution) in women with menstrual irregularities seen at endocrinologists' clinic. Design: A cross-sectional study design. Participants: A sample of 159 women with menstrual irregularities, aged 15-44, seen at endocrinologists' clinic. Main Outcome Measures: androgen levels, body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP & DBP), source of androgens, ovulatory activity. Results: The prevalence of hyperandrogenemia was 54.7% in this study sample. As expected, women with acne or hirsutism had an odds ratio 12.5 (95%CI = 5.2-25.5) times and 36 (95%CI = 12.9-99.5) times more likely to have hyperandrogenemia than those without acne or hirsutism. The main findings of this study were the following: Hyperandrogenemic women were more likely to have oligomenorrheic cycles (OR = 3.8, 95%CI = 1.5-9.9), anovulatory cycles (OR = 6.6, 95%CI = 2.8-15.4), general obesity (BMI $\ge$ 27) (OR = 6.8, 95%CI = 2.2-27.2) and central obesity (WHR $\ge$ 127) (OR = 14.5, 95%CI = 6.1-38.7) than euandrogenemic women. Hyperandrogenemic women with non-suppressible androgens had a higher mean BMI (29.3 $\pm$ 8.9) than those with suppressible androgens (27.9 $\pm$ 7.9); the converse was true for abdominal adiposity (WHR). Hyperandrogenemic women had a 2.4 odds ratio (95%CI = 1.0-6.2) for an elevated SBP and a 2.7 odds ratio (95%CI = 0.8-8.8) for elevated DBP. When age differences were accounted for, this relationship was strengthened and further strengthened when sources of androgens were controlled. When the differences in BMI were controlled, the odds ratio for elevated SBP in hyperandrogenemic women increased to 8.8 (95%CI = 1.1-69.9). When the age, the source of androgens, the amount of obesity and the type of obesity were controlled, hyperandrogenemic women had 13.5 (95%CI = 1.1-158.9) odds ratio for elevated SBP. Conclusions: In this study population, the presence of menstrual irregularities are highly predictive for the presence of elevated androgens. Women with elevated androgens have a high risk for obesity, more specifically for central obesity. The androgenemic status is an independent predictor of blood pressure elevation. It is probable that in the general population, the presence of menstrual irregularities are predictive of hyperandrogenemia. There is a great need for a population study of the prevalence of hyperandrogenemia and for longitudinal studies in hyperandrogenemic women (adrenarche to menopause) to investigate the evolution of these relationships. ^

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The Personal Response System Program at Huffington Center on Aging, Baylor College of Medicine, provides emergency call systems for elderly people living independently in Houston, Texas. The goal of the project was to complete a formative evaluation of the Personal Response System Program. The specific aims of the evaluation were three-fold. One aim was to evaluate participant health status and level of disability. The second aim was to develop a health care cost estimation strategy. Finally, a preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis was completed to evaluate the program's impact on health care costs and health status among the elderly target population. ^ The evaluation was a longitudinal, randomized experimental design. After the screening of 120 volunteers for eligibility, clients were asked to complete a written questionnaire and a monthly health service contact diary. Volunteers were contacted by telephone interviewers to collect health status information from 100 eligible clients (83%) on three occasions during the six months of follow-up. ^ Initially, volunteers were randomized to two experimental groups. The two groups were found to be comparable at the beginning of the study. No significant differences were detected related to health status, level of disability, or history of physician visits at baseline. However, the group with the Personal Response System (PRS) device had more adverse health events, higher IADL scores, more frequent use of walkers, lower average health status scores, and fewer community volunteers hours than the usual care comparison group. ^ The health care costs were estimated based on an algorithm adapted from the American Medical Association guidelines. Average total health care costs for the group with the PRS device ($912) were greater than the usual care group ($464). However, median health care values for the PRS group ($263) were similar to the usual care comparison group ($234). The preliminary findings indicated that the use of the PRS device was not associated with health care cost savings. ^ In the preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis, use of the personal response system was found to be associated with increased mental health status among elderly clients. The cost-effectiveness evaluation indicated that the associated cost for six months was $710 per unit increase in mental component score when the $150 PRS subscription was included. However, clients with the PRS device were found to have a greater decline in physical health status during the six-month follow-up. The beneficial effect on mental health status was found to be in contrast to negative findings associated with changes in physical health status. The implications for future research relate to the need to identify risk factors among geriatric populations to better target groups that would most likely benefit from PRS Program enrollment. ^

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The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

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BACKGROUND The optimal management of high-risk prostate cancer remains uncertain. In this study we assessed the safety and efficacy of a novel multimodal treatment paradigm for high-risk prostate cancer. METHODS This was a prospective phase II trial including 35 patients with newly diagnosed high-risk localized or locally advanced prostate cancer treated with high-dose intensity-modulated radiation therapy preceded or not by radical prostatectomy, concurrent intensified-dose docetaxel-based chemotherapy and long-term androgen deprivation therapy. Primary endpoint was acute and late toxicity evaluated with the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. Secondary endpoint was biochemical and clinical recurrence-free survival explored with the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS Acute gastro-intestinal and genito-urinary toxicity was grade 2 in 23% and 20% of patients, and grade 3 in 9% and 3% of patients, respectively. Acute blood/bone marrow toxicity was grade 2 in 20% of patients. No acute grade ≥ 4 toxicity was observed. Late gastro-intestinal and genito-urinary toxicity was grade 2 in 9% of patients each. No late grade ≥ 3 toxicity was observed. Median follow-up was 63 months (interquartile range 31-79). Actuarial 5-year biochemical and clinical recurrence-free survival rate was 55% (95% confidence interval, 35-75%) and 70% (95% confidence interval, 52-88%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS In our phase II trial testing a novel multimodal treatment paradigm for high-risk prostate cancer, toxicity was acceptably low and mid-term oncological outcome was good. This treatment paradigm, thus, may warrant further evaluation in phase III randomized trials.

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OBJECT Resection of glioblastoma adjacent to motor cortex or subcortical motor pathways carries a high risk of both incomplete resection and postoperative motor deficits. Although the strategy of maximum safe resection is widely accepted, the rates of complete resection of enhancing tumor (CRET) and the exact causes for motor deficits (mechanical vs vascular) are not always known. The authors report the results of their concept of combining monopolar mapping and 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA)-guided surgery in patients with glioblastoma adjacent to eloquent tissue. METHODS The authors prospectively studied 72 consecutive patients who underwent 5-ALA-guided surgery for a glioblastoma adjacent to the corticospinal tract (CST; < 10 mm) with continuous dynamic monopolar motor mapping (short-train interstimulus interval 4.0 msec, pulse duration 500 μsec) coupled to an acoustic motor evoked potential (MEP) alarm. The extent of resection was determined based on early (< 48 hours) postoperative MRI findings. Motor function was assessed 1 day after surgery, at discharge, and at 3 months. RESULTS Five patients were excluded because of nonadherence to protocol; thus, 67 patients were evaluated. The lowest motor threshold reached during individual surgery was as follows (motor threshold, number of patients): > 20 mA, n = 8; 11-20 mA, n = 13; 6-10 mA, n = 10; 4-5 mA, n = 13; and 1-3 mA, n = 23. Motor deterioration at postsurgical Day 1 and at discharge occurred in 30% (n = 20) and 10% (n = 7) of patients, respectively. At 3 months, 3 patients (4%) had a persisting postoperative motor deficit, 2 caused by vascular injury and 1 by mechanical injury. The rates of intra- and postoperative seizures were 1% and 0%, respectively. Complete resection of enhancing tumor was achieved in 73% of patients (49/67) despite proximity to the CST. CONCLUSIONS A rather high rate of CRET can be achieved in glioblastomas in motor eloquent areas via a combination of 5-ALA for tumor identification and intraoperative mapping for distinguishing between presumed and actual motor eloquent tissues. Continuous dynamic mapping was found to be a very ergonomic technique that localizes the motor tissue early and reliably.

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Low-flow, low-gradient severe aortic stenosis (AS) is characterised by a small aortic valve area (AVA) and low mean gradient (MG) secondary to a low cardiac output and may occur in patients with either a preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Symptomatic patients presenting with low-flow, low-gradient severe AS have a dismal prognosis independent of baseline LVEF if managed conservatively and should therefore undergo aortic valve replacement if feasible. Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) is the first-line investigation for the assessment of AS haemodynamic severity. However, when confronted with guideline-discordant AVA (small) and MG (low) values, there are several reasons other than severe AS combined with a low cardiac output which may lead to such a situation, including erroneous measurements, small body size, inherent inconsistencies in the guidelines' criteria, prolonged ejection time and aortic pseudostenosis. The distinction between these various entities poses a diagnostic challenge. However, it is important to make a distinction because each has very different implications in terms of risk stratification and therapeutic management. In such instances, cardiac catheterisation forms an integral part of the work-up of these patients in order to confirm or refute the echocardiographic findings to guide management decisions appropriately.

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Individual risk preferences have a large influence on decisions, such as financial investments, career and health choices, or gambling. Decision making under risk has been studied both behaviorally and on a neural level. It remains unclear, however, how risk attitudes are encoded and integrated with choice. Here, we investigate how risk preferences are reflected in neural regions known to process risk. We collected functional magnetic resonance images of 56 human subjects during a gambling task (Preuschoff et al., 2006). Subjects were grouped into risk averters and risk seekers according to the risk preferences they revealed in a separate lottery task. We found that during the anticipation of high-risk gambles, risk averters show stronger responses in ventral striatum and anterior insula compared to risk seekers. In addition, risk prediction error signals in anterior insula, inferior frontal gyrus, and anterior cingulate indicate that risk averters do not dissociate properly between gambles that are more or less risky than expected. We suggest this may result in a general overestimation of prospective risk and lead to risk avoidance behavior. This is the first study to show that behavioral risk preferences are reflected in the passive evaluation of risky situations. The results have implications on public policies in the financial and health domain.

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BACKGROUND Children and adolescents are at high risk of sustaining fractures during growth. Therefore, epidemiological assessment is crucial for fracture prevention. The AO Comprehensive Injury Automatic Classifier (AO COIAC) was used to evaluate epidemiological data of pediatric long bone fractures in a large cohort. METHODS Data from children and adolescents with long bone fractures sustained between 2009 and 2011, treated at either of two tertiary pediatric surgery hospitals in Switzerland, were retrospectively collected. Fractures were classified according to the AO Pediatric Comprehensive Classification of Long Bone Fractures (PCCF). RESULTS For a total of 2716 patients (60% boys), 2807 accidents with 2840 long bone fractures (59% radius/ulna; 21% humerus; 15% tibia/fibula; 5% femur) were documented. Children's mean age (SD) was 8.2 (4.0) years (6% infants; 26% preschool children; 40% school children; 28% adolescents). Adolescent boys sustained more fractures than girls (p < 0.001). The leading cause of fractures was falls (27%), followed by accidents occurring during leisure activities (25%), at home (14%), on playgrounds (11%), and traffic (11%) and school accidents (8%). There was boy predominance for all accident types except for playground and at home accidents. The distribution of accident types differed according to age classes (p < 0.001). Twenty-six percent of patients were classed as overweight or obese - higher than data published by the WHO for the corresponding ages - with a higher proportion of overweight and obese boys than in the Swiss population (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION Overall, differences in the fracture distribution were sex and age related. Overweight and obese patients seemed to be at increased risk of sustaining fractures. Our data give valuable input into future development of prevention strategies. The AO PCCF proved to be useful in epidemiological reporting and analysis of pediatric long bone fractures.

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Switzerland had been affected by the bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in Europe in the years 2007 to 2009. After three years of mandatory vaccination and comprehensive surveillance, Switzerland showed to be free of BTV-8 in 2012. In the future Elisa testing of bulk-tank milk (BTM) samples as a very sensitive and cost-effective method should be used for the surveillance of all serotypes of BTV. To determine the prevalence of seropositive herds, BTM from 240 cattle herds was sampled in July 2012. The results showed an apparent seroprevalence of 98.7% in the investigated dairy herds. Most plausible, the high prevalence was caused by the vaccination campaigns rather than by infections with BTV-8. In the outbreak the cumulative number of BTV-8 cases in Switzerland had been 75.Thus it is very likely that the used inactivated vaccines induced long-term antibody titres. Due to the high seroprevalence, investigating for BT-antibodies cannot be used for early recognition of a new introduction of BTV at the moment. Nonetheless, testing of BTM samples is appropriate for an annual evaluation of the seroprevalence and especially as an instrument for early recognition for incursions as soon as the antibody prevalence declines.To determine this decline the BTM testing scheme should be conducted each year as described in this work.

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PURPOSES Geriatric problems frequently go undetected in older patients in emergency departments (EDs), thus increasing their risk of adverse outcomes. We evaluated a novel emergency geriatric screening (EGS) tool designed to detect geriatric problems. BASIC PROCEDURES The EGS tool consisted of short validated instruments used to screen 4 domains (cognition, falls, mobility, and activities of daily living). Emergency geriatric screening was introduced for ED patients 75 years or older throughout a 4-month period. We analyzed the prevalence of abnormal EGS and whether EGS increased the number of EGS-related diagnoses in the ED during the screening, as compared with a preceding control period. MAIN FINDINGS Emergency geriatric screening was performed on 338 (42.5%) of 795 patients presenting during screening. Emergency geriatric screening was unfeasible in 175 patients (22.0%) because of life-threatening conditions and was not performed in 282 (35.5%) for logistical reasons. Emergency geriatric screening took less than 5 minutes to perform in most (85.8%) cases. Among screened patients, 285 (84.3%) had at least 1 abnormal EGS finding. In 270 of these patients, at least 1 abnormal EGS finding did not result in a diagnosis in the ED and was reported for further workup to subsequent care. During screening, 142 patients (42.0%) had at least 1 diagnosis listed within the 4 EGS domains, significantly more than the 29.3% in the control period (odds ratio 1.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-2.29; P<.001). Emergency geriatric screening predicted nursing home admission after the in-hospital stay (odds ratio for ≥3 vs <3 abnormal domains 12.13; 95% confidence interval, 2.79-52.72; P=.001). PRINCIPAL CONCLUSIONS The novel EGS is feasible, identifies previously undetected geriatric problems, and predicts determinants of subsequent care.

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Femoro-patellar dysplasia is considered as a significant risk factor of patellar instability. Different studies suggest that the shape of the trochlea is already developed in early childhood. Therefore early identification of a dysplastic configuration might be relevant information for the treating physician. An easy applicable routine screening of the trochlea is yet not available. The purpose of this study was to establish and evaluate a screening method for femoro-patellar dysplasia using 3D ultrasound. From 2012 to 2013 we prospectively imaged 160 consecutive femoro-patellar joints in 80 newborns from the 36th to 61st gestational week that underwent a routine hip sonography (Graf). All ultrasounds were performed by a pediatric radiologist with only minimal additional time to the routine hip ultrasound. In 30° flexion of the knee, axial, coronal, and sagittal reformats were used to standardize a reconstructed axial plane through the femoral condyle and the mid-patella. The sulcus angle, the lateral-to-medial facet ratio of the trochlea and the shape of the patella (Wiberg Classification) were evaluated. In all examinations reconstruction of the standardized axial plane was achieved, the mean trochlea angle was 149.1° (SD 4.9°), the lateral-to-medial facet ratio of the trochlea ratio was 1.3 (SD 0.22), and a Wiberg type I patella was found in 95% of the newborn. No statistical difference was detected between boys and girls. Using standardized reconstructions of the axial plane allows measurements to be made with lower operator dependency and higher accuracy in a short time. Therefore 3D ultrasound is an easy applicable and powerful tool to identify trochlea dysplasia in newborns and might be used for screening for trochlea dysplasia.

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Purpose: Leadership positions are still stereotyped as male, especially in male-dominated fields such as STEM. Therefore, women in such positions run the risk of being evaluated less favorably than men. Our study investigates how female and male leaders in existing teams (engineering project) are evaluated, and how these evaluations change over time. Design/Methodology: Participants worked in 45 teams to develop specific engineering projects. Evaluations of 45 leaders (33% women) by 258 team members (39% women) were analyzed, that is, leaders’ self-evaluation and their evaluation by team members. Results: Although female and male leaders did not differ in their self-evaluations at the beginning of the project, female leaders evaluated themselves better within time. However, team members evaluated female leaders better than male leaders at the beginning of the project. These gender differences disappeared over the time. Limitations: It should be replicated in a non-student sample. Implications: The results show that female leaders entering a male-dominated field (engineering) are evaluated better by team members than male leaders at the beginning of the team work, in line with the ‘shifting standard model’ (Biernat & Fuegen, 2001). While the initial impression formation of female and male leaders is influenced by category membership, its impact decreases over time as a consequence of individualization (Fiske & Neuberg, 1990); this results in similar evaluations over time. Originality: To our knowledge this is the first study to systematically test perceptions of change in the evaluation over time of female and male leaders in natural setting.