Response to comments on "Productivity is a poor predictor of plant species richness"

Pan et al. claim that our results actually support a strong linear positive relationship between productivity and richness, whereas Fridley et al. contend that the data support a strong humped relationship. These responses illustrate how preoccupation with bivariate patterns distracts from a deeper understanding of the multivariate mechanisms that control these important ecosystem properties.

Integrated health prediction of bridge systems using dynamic object oriented Bayesian networks (DOOBNS)

The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.

Inclusive housing in Australia – a voluntary response

The lack of inclusive housing in Australia contributes to the marginalization and exclusion of people with disability and older people from family and community life. The Australian government has handed over the responsibility of increasing the supply of inclusive housing to the housing industry through an agreed national access standard and a voluntary strategy. Voluntary strategies have not been successful in other constituencies and little is known about what would work in Australia today. Findings from a research project into the voluntariness of the housing industry indicate that a reliable and consistent supply is unlikely without an equivalent increase in demand. The strategy has, however, an important role to play in the task of changing housing industry practices towards building more inclusive communities.

Smart grid-demand side response model for optimization air conditioning

The growing demand of air-conditioning is one of the largest contributors to Australia’s overall electricity consumption. This has started to create peak load supply problems for some electricity utilities particularly in Queensland. This research aimed to develop consumer demand side response model to assist electricity consumers to mitigate peak demand on the electrical network. The model developed demand side response model to allow consumers to manage and control air conditioning for every period, it is called intelligent control. This research investigates optimal response of end-user toward electricity price for several cases in the near future, such as: no spike, spike and probability spike price cases. The results indicate the potential of the scheme to achieve energy savings, reducing electricity bills (costs) to the consumer and targeting best economic performance for electrical generation distribution and transmission.

Waving or drowning? Managing resource constraints in entrepreneurial firm with bricolage as a response to the global financial crisis

These are challenging times for new entrepreneurial firms. The development of the Global Financial Crisis shook the very foundations of global markets and institutions that most firms relied on to do business (Claessens, et al., forthcoming). In the midst of institutional flux and resource constraints, entrepreneurial firms, which have been shown to make a range of contributions to the economy (van Praag & Versloot 2007) faced increasing constraints. The Australian Federal Government quickly implemented the Green Loan program in response to the financial crisis. Unfortunately, the green loans program was flawed with obsolete processes and information (Faulkner, 2011), further constraining new firms. Prior research provides few clues regarding how resource-constrained entrepreneurial firms deal with these institutional flaws within institutional change and how they might overcome these challenges and prosper. One promising theory that evaluates behavioural responses to constraints and institutional flaws is bricolage (Levi Strauss, 1967). Bricolage aligns with notions of resourcefulness: defined here as “making do by applying combinations of the resources at hand to new problems and opportunities” (Baker and Nelson 2005: 333). Using three case studies, we consider how institutional flaws impact firm behaviours and illustrate the use of bricolage in attempts to reinforce, shape and change the GL program further extending bricolage domains of Baker and Nelson (2005).

Measurement of in-service insulated rail joint tie plate response

This paper presents the results of a recent investigation into Insulated Rail Joint Tie Plate fatigue failures. In particular it focuses on the results of data obtained through field strain gauge and accelerometer measurements of in-service Insulated Rail Joint Tie Plates. These measurements have identified a significant variability in the strains present in similar joints operating under identical load conditions. This variability in stress invariably has a significant influence on the life of the joints. The results of rainflow counting and a fatigue analysis are also presented.

Lateral movements in composite high-rise buildings under seismic action

Daring human nature has already led to the construction of high-rise buildings in naturally challenging geological regions and in worse environments of the world. However; literature review divulges that there is a lag in research of certain generic principles and rules for the prediction of lateral movement in multistorey construction. The present competitive trend orders the best possible used of available construction material and resources. Hence; the mixed used of reinforced concrete with structural steel is gaining prevalence day by day. This paper investigates the effects of Seismic load on composite multistorey building provided with core wall and trusses through FEM modelling. The results showed that increased rigidity corresponds to lower period of vibration and hence higher seismic forces. Since Seismic action is a function of mass and response acceleration, therefore; mass increment generate higher earthquake load and thus cause higher impact base shear and overturning movement. Whereas; wind force depends on building exposed, larger the plan dimension greater is the wind impact. Nonetheless; outriggers trusses noticeably contribute, in improving the serviceability of structure subjected to wind and earthquake forces.

'It ain't over till it's over' : Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets

The recent expansion of prediction markets provides a great opportunity to test the market efficiency hypothesis and the calibration of trader judgements. Using a large database of observed prices, this article studies the calibration of prediction markets prices on sporting events using both nonparametric and parametric methods. While only minor bias can be observed during most of the lifetime of the contracts, the calibration of prices deteriorates very significantly in the last moments of the contracts’ lives. Traders tend to overestimate the probability of the losing team to reverse the situation in the last minutes of the game.

The intraocular pressure response to dehydration : a pilot study

This study was designed to determine the Intraocular Pressure (IOP) response to differing levels of dehydration. Seven males participated in a 90 minute treadmill walk (5 km/h and 1 % grade) in both a cool (22 °C) and hot (43 °C) climate. At Baseline and at 30 minute intervals measurements of IOP, by tonometery, and indicators of hydration status (nude weight and plasma osmolality (Posm)) were taken. Body temperature and heart rate were also measured at these time points. Statistically significant interactions (time point (4) by trial (2)) were observed for IOP (F = 10.747, p = 0.009) and body weight loss (F = 50.083, p < 0.001) to decrease, and Posm (F = 34.867, p < 0.001) to increase, by a significantly greater amount during the hot trial compared to the cool. A univariate general linear model showed a significant relationship between IOP and body weight loss (F = 37.63, p < 0.001) and Posm (F = 38.53, p < 0.001). A significant interaction was observed for body temperature (F = 20.908, p < 0.001) and heart rate (F = 25.487, p < 0.001) between the trials and time points, but there was negligible association between these variables and IOP (Pearson correlation coefficient < ±0.5). The present study provides evidence to suggest that IOP is influenced by hydration status.

The post-illumination pupil response of melanopsin expressing intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells in diabetes

Purpose: This study investigates the clinical utility of the melanopsin expressing intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cell (ipRGC) controlled post-illumination pupil response (PIPR) as a novel technique for documenting inner retinal function in patients with Type II diabetes without diabetic retinopathy. Methods: The post-illumination pupil response (PIPR) was measured in seven patients with Type II diabetes, normal retinal nerve fiber thickness and no diabetic retinopathy. A 488 nm and 610 nm, 7.15º diameter stimulus was presented in Maxwellian view to the right eye and the left consensual pupil light reflex was recorded. Results: The group data for the blue PIPR (488 nm) identified a trend of reduced ipRGC function in patients with diabetes with no retinopathy. The transient pupil constriction was lower on average in the diabetic group. The relationship between duration of diabetes and the blue PIPR amplitude was linear, suggesting that ipRGC function decreases with increasing diabetes duration. Conclusion: This is the first report to show that the ipRGC controlled post-illumination pupil response may have clinical applications as a non-invasive technique for determining progression of inner neuroretinal changes in patients with diabetes before they are ophthalmoscopically or anatomically evident. The lower transient pupil constriction amplitude indicates that outer retinal photoreceptor inputs to the pupil light reflex may also be affected in diabetes.

One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtype C Gag virus-like particle boost substantially improves the immune response to a subtype C gag DNA vaccine in mice

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype C is the predominant HIV in southern Africa, and is the target of a number of recent vaccine candidates. It has been proposed that a heterologous prime/boost vaccination strategy may result in stronger, broader and more prolonged immune responses. Since HIV-1 Gag Pr55 polyprotein can assemble into virus-like particles (VLPs) which have been shown to induce a strong cellular immune response in animals, we showed that a typical southern African subtype C Pr55 protein expressed in insect cells via recombinant baculovirus could form VLPs. We then used the baculovirus-produced VLPs as a boost to a subtype C HIV-1 gag DNA prime vaccination in mice. This study shows that a low dose of HIV-1 subtype C Gag VLPs can significantly boost the immune response to a single subtype C gag DNA inoculation in mice. These results suggest a possible vaccination regimen for humans. © 2004 SGM.

Comparing measures of fat-free mass in overweight older adults using three different bioelectrical impedance devices and three prediction equations

Objectives: To compare measures of fat-free mass (FFM) by three different bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) devices and to assess the agreement between three different equations validated in older adult and/or overweight populations. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Orthopaedics ward of Brisbane public hospital, Australia. Participants: Twenty-two overweight, older Australians (72 yr ± 6.4, BMI 34 kg/m2 ± 5.5) with knee osteoarthritis. Measurements: Body composition was measured using three BIA devices: Tanita 300-GS (foot-to-foot), Impedimed DF50 (hand-to-foot) and Impedimed SFB7 (bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy (BIS)). Three equations for predicting FFM were selected based on their ability to be applied to an older adult and/ or overweight population. Impedance values were extracted from the hand-to-foot BIA device and included in the equations to estimate FFM. Results: The mean FFM measured by BIS (57.6 kg ± 9.1) differed significantly from those measured by foot-to-foot (54.6 kg ± 8.7) and hand-to-foot BIA (53.2 kg ± 10.5) (P < 0.001). The mean ± SD FFM predicted by three equations using raw data from hand-to-foot BIA were 54.7 kg ± 8.9, 54.7 kg ± 7.9 and 52.9 kg ± 11.05 respectively. These results did not differ from the FFM predicted by the hand-to-foot device (F = 2.66, P = 0.118). Conclusions: Our results suggest that foot-to-foot and hand-to-foot BIA may be used interchangeably in overweight older adults at the group level but due to the large limits of agreement may lead to unacceptable error in individuals. There was no difference between the three prediction equations however these results should be confirmed within a larger sample and against a reference standard.

Asylum seekers living in the community on Bridging Visa E : community sector’s response to detrimental policies

In 1997, the Australian government introduced regulations restricting work rights, income and Medicare access to asylum seekers living in the community on Bridging Visa E (BVE). These visa conditions have resulted in unacceptable hardship for asylum seekers. In response, a variety of community-based agencies have been established across Australia. This study documents and collates the experiences of some of these agencies working in Victoria. These organizations maintain a high degree of inter-agency communication and liaison, have an extensive community support network by way of volunteer work and financial assistance from philanthropic organizations and the public, and have developed successful alternative models of care for asylum seekers. However, many of the agencies have been unprepared and under-resourced for the specific legal, cultural, and health concerns common to asylum seekers on BVE. A discussion of the issues faced by the community sector in the current asylum seeker/refugee political context is presented