A linearization-based system reliability method with application to geotechnical analysis

Los análisis de fiabilidad representan una herramienta adecuada para contemplar las incertidumbres inherentes que existen en los parámetros geotécnicos. En esta Tesis Doctoral se desarrolla una metodología basada en una linealización sencilla, que emplea aproximaciones de primer o segundo orden, para evaluar eficientemente la fiabilidad del sistema en los problemas geotécnicos. En primer lugar, se emplean diferentes métodos para analizar la fiabilidad de dos aspectos propios del diseño de los túneles: la estabilidad del frente y el comportamiento del sostenimiento. Se aplican varias metodologías de fiabilidad — el Método de Fiabilidad de Primer Orden (FORM), el Método de Fiabilidad de Segundo Orden (SORM) y el Muestreo por Importancia (IS). Los resultados muestran que los tipos de distribución y las estructuras de correlación consideradas para todas las variables aleatorias tienen una influencia significativa en los resultados de fiabilidad, lo cual remarca la importancia de una adecuada caracterización de las incertidumbres geotécnicas en las aplicaciones prácticas. Los resultados también muestran que tanto el FORM como el SORM pueden emplearse para estimar la fiabilidad del sostenimiento de un túnel y que el SORM puede mejorar el FORM con un esfuerzo computacional adicional aceptable. Posteriormente, se desarrolla una metodología de linealización para evaluar la fiabilidad del sistema en los problemas geotécnicos. Esta metodología solamente necesita la información proporcionada por el FORM: el vector de índices de fiabilidad de las funciones de estado límite (LSFs) que componen el sistema y su matriz de correlación. Se analizan dos problemas geotécnicos comunes —la estabilidad de un talud en un suelo estratificado y un túnel circular excavado en roca— para demostrar la sencillez, precisión y eficiencia del procedimiento propuesto. Asimismo, se reflejan las ventajas de la metodología de linealización con respecto a las herramientas computacionales alternativas. Igualmente se muestra que, en el caso de que resulte necesario, se puede emplear el SORM —que aproxima la verdadera LSF mejor que el FORM— para calcular estimaciones más precisas de la fiabilidad del sistema. Finalmente, se presenta una nueva metodología que emplea Algoritmos Genéticos para identificar, de manera precisa, las superficies de deslizamiento representativas (RSSs) de taludes en suelos estratificados, las cuales se emplean posteriormente para estimar la fiabilidad del sistema, empleando la metodología de linealización propuesta. Se adoptan tres taludes en suelos estratificados característicos para demostrar la eficiencia, precisión y robustez del procedimiento propuesto y se discuten las ventajas del mismo con respecto a otros métodos alternativos. Los resultados muestran que la metodología propuesta da estimaciones de fiabilidad que mejoran los resultados previamente publicados, enfatizando la importancia de hallar buenas RSSs —y, especialmente, adecuadas (desde un punto de vista probabilístico) superficies de deslizamiento críticas que podrían ser no-circulares— para obtener estimaciones acertadas de la fiabilidad de taludes en suelos. Reliability analyses provide an adequate tool to consider the inherent uncertainties that exist in geotechnical parameters. This dissertation develops a simple linearization-based approach, that uses first or second order approximations, to efficiently evaluate the system reliability of geotechnical problems. First, reliability methods are employed to analyze the reliability of two tunnel design aspects: face stability and performance of support systems. Several reliability approaches —the first order reliability method (FORM), the second order reliability method (SORM), the response surface method (RSM) and importance sampling (IS)— are employed, with results showing that the assumed distribution types and correlation structures for all random variables have a significant effect on the reliability results. This emphasizes the importance of an adequate characterization of geotechnical uncertainties for practical applications. Results also show that both FORM and SORM can be used to estimate the reliability of tunnel-support systems; and that SORM can outperform FORM with an acceptable additional computational effort. A linearization approach is then developed to evaluate the system reliability of series geotechnical problems. The approach only needs information provided by FORM: the vector of reliability indices of the limit state functions (LSFs) composing the system, and their correlation matrix. Two common geotechnical problems —the stability of a slope in layered soil and a circular tunnel in rock— are employed to demonstrate the simplicity, accuracy and efficiency of the suggested procedure. Advantages of the linearization approach with respect to alternative computational tools are discussed. It is also found that, if necessary, SORM —that approximates the true LSF better than FORM— can be employed to compute better estimations of the system’s reliability. Finally, a new approach using Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is presented to identify the fully specified representative slip surfaces (RSSs) of layered soil slopes, and such RSSs are then employed to estimate the system reliability of slopes, using our proposed linearization approach. Three typical benchmark-slopes with layered soils are adopted to demonstrate the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of the suggested procedure, and advantages of the proposed method with respect to alternative methods are discussed. Results show that the proposed approach provides reliability estimates that improve previously published results, emphasizing the importance of finding good RSSs —and, especially, good (probabilistic) critical slip surfaces that might be non-circular— to obtain good estimations of the reliability of soil slope systems.

Optimizing the reliability and resource efficiency of MapReduce-based systems

Debido al gran incremento de datos digitales que ha tenido lugar en los últimos años, ha surgido un nuevo paradigma de computación paralela para el procesamiento eficiente de grandes volúmenes de datos. Muchos de los sistemas basados en este paradigma, también llamados sistemas de computación intensiva de datos, siguen el modelo de programación de Google MapReduce. La principal ventaja de los sistemas MapReduce es que se basan en la idea de enviar la computación donde residen los datos, tratando de proporcionar escalabilidad y eficiencia. En escenarios libres de fallo, estos sistemas generalmente logran buenos resultados. Sin embargo, la mayoría de escenarios donde se utilizan, se caracterizan por la existencia de fallos. Por tanto, estas plataformas suelen incorporar características de tolerancia a fallos y fiabilidad. Por otro lado, es reconocido que las mejoras en confiabilidad vienen asociadas a costes adicionales en recursos. Esto es razonable y los proveedores que ofrecen este tipo de infraestructuras son conscientes de ello. No obstante, no todos los enfoques proporcionan la misma solución de compromiso entre las capacidades de tolerancia a fallo (o de manera general, las capacidades de fiabilidad) y su coste. Esta tesis ha tratado la problemática de la coexistencia entre fiabilidad y eficiencia de los recursos en los sistemas basados en el paradigma MapReduce, a través de metodologías que introducen el mínimo coste, garantizando un nivel adecuado de fiabilidad. Para lograr esto, se ha propuesto: (i) la formalización de una abstracción de detección de fallos; (ii) una solución alternativa a los puntos únicos de fallo de estas plataformas, y, finalmente, (iii) un nuevo sistema de asignación de recursos basado en retroalimentación a nivel de contenedores. Estas contribuciones genéricas han sido evaluadas tomando como referencia la arquitectura Hadoop YARN, que, hoy en día, es la plataforma de referencia en la comunidad de los sistemas de computación intensiva de datos. En la tesis se demuestra cómo todas las contribuciones de la misma superan a Hadoop YARN tanto en fiabilidad como en eficiencia de los recursos utilizados. ABSTRACT Due to the increase of huge data volumes, a new parallel computing paradigm to process big data in an efficient way has arisen. Many of these systems, called dataintensive computing systems, follow the Google MapReduce programming model. The main advantage of these systems is based on the idea of sending the computation where the data resides, trying to provide scalability and efficiency. In failure-free scenarios, these frameworks usually achieve good results. However, these ones are not realistic scenarios. Consequently, these frameworks exhibit some fault tolerance and dependability techniques as built-in features. On the other hand, dependability improvements are known to imply additional resource costs. This is reasonable and providers offering these infrastructures are aware of this. Nevertheless, not all the approaches provide the same tradeoff between fault tolerant capabilities (or more generally, reliability capabilities) and cost. In this thesis, we have addressed the coexistence between reliability and resource efficiency in MapReduce-based systems, looking for methodologies that introduce the minimal cost and guarantee an appropriate level of reliability. In order to achieve this, we have proposed: (i) a formalization of a failure detector abstraction; (ii) an alternative solution to single points of failure of these frameworks, and finally (iii) a novel feedback-based resource allocation system at the container level. Finally, our generic contributions have been instantiated for the Hadoop YARN architecture, which is the state-of-the-art framework in the data-intensive computing systems community nowadays. The thesis demonstrates how all our approaches outperform Hadoop YARN in terms of reliability and resource efficiency.

Analysis, reliability and optimization of reinforced concrete 2-D structures

In this paper a consistent analysis of reinforced concrete (RC) two-dimensional (2-D) structures,namely slab structures subjected to in-plane and out-plane forces, is presented. By using this method of analysis the well established methodology for dimensioning and verifying RC sections of beam structures is extended to 2-D structures. The validity of the proposed analysis results is checked by comparing them with some published experimental test results. Several examples show some of these proposed analysis features, such as the influence of the reinforcement layout on the service and ultimate behavior of a slab structure and the non straightforward problem of the optimal dimension at a slab point subjected to several loading cases. Also, in these examples, the method applications to design situations as multiple steel families and non orthogonal reinforcement layout are commented.

Reliability of league tables of in vitro fertilisation clinics: retrospective analysis of live birth rates

Objective: To determine to what extent institutions carrying out in vitro fertilisation can reasonably be ranked according to their live birth rates.

The new animal phylogeny: Reliability and implications

DNA sequence analysis dictates new interpretation of phylogenic trees. Taxa that were once thought to represent successive grades of complexity at the base of the metazoan tree are being displaced to much higher positions inside the tree. This leaves no evolutionary “intermediates” and forces us to rethink the genesis of bilaterian complexity.

The 12-Item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12): Reliability,external validity and factor structure in the Spanish population

The purpose of this study was to analyze the internal consistency and the external and structure validity of the 12-Item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) in the Spanish general population. A stratified sample of 1001 subjects, ages between 25 and 65 years, taken from the general Spanish population was employed. The GHQ-12 and the Inventory of Situations and Responses of Anxiety-ISRA were administered. A Cronbach’s alpha of .76 (Standardized Alpha: .78) and a 3-factor structure (with oblique rotation and maximum likelihood procedure) were obtained. External validity of Factor I (Successful Coping) with the ISRA is very robust (.82; Factor II, .70; Factor III, .75). The GHQ-12 shows adequate reliability and validity in the Spanish population. Therefore, the GHQ-12 can be used with efficacy to assess people’s overall psychological well-being and to detect non-psychotic psychiatric problems. Additionally, our results confirm that the GHQ-12 can best be thought of as a multidimensional scale that assesses several distinct aspects of distress, rather than just a unitary screening measure.

Best Alternatives to Cronbach's Alpha Reliability in Realistic Conditions: Congeneric and Asymmetrical Measurements

The Cronbach's alpha is the most widely used method for estimating internal consistency reliability. This procedure has proved very resistant to the passage of time, even if its limitations are well documented and although there are better options as omega coefficient or the different versions of glb, with obvious advantages especially for applied research in which the ítems differ in quality or have skewed distributions. In this paper, using Monte Carlo simulation, the performance of these reliability coefficients under a one-dimensional model is evaluated in terms of skewness and no tau-equivalence. The results show that omega coefficient is always better choice than alpha and in the presence of skew items is preferable to use omega and glb coefficients even in small samples.

The Spanish version of the Prenatal Breast-feeding Self-efficacy Scale: Reliability and validity assessment

Background: Only a minority of infants are exclusively breastfed for the recommended 6 months postpartum. Breast-feeding self-efficacy is a mother's confidence in her ability to breastfeed and is predictive of breastfeeding behaviors. The Prenatal Breast-feeding Self-efficacy Scale (PBSES) was developed among English-speaking mothers to measure breastfeeding self-efficacy before delivery. Objectives: To translate the PBSES into Spanish and assess its psychometric properties. Design: Reliability and validity assessment. Setting: A public hospital in Yecla, Spain. Participants: A convenience sample of 234 pregnant women in their third trimester of pregnancy. Methods: The PBSES was translated into Spanish using forward and back translation. A battery of self-administered questionnaires was completed by participants, including a questionnaire on sociodemographic variables, breastfeeding experience and intention, as well as the Spanish version of the PBSES. Also, data on exclusive breastfeeding at discharge were collected from hospital database. Dimensional structure, internal consistency and construct validity of the Spanish version of PBSES were assessed. Results: Confirmatory factor analysis suggested the presence of one construct, self-efficacy, with four dimensions or latent variables. Cronbach's alpha coefficient for internal consistency was 0.91. Response patterns based on decision to breastfeed during pregnancy provided evidence of construct validity. In addition, the scores of the Spanish version of the PBSES significantly predicted exclusive breastfeeding at discharge. Conclusions: The Spanish version of PBSES shows evidences of reliability, and contrasting group and predictive validity. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated marginal fit and further studies are needed to provide new evidence on the structure of the scale. The Spanish version of the PBSES can be considered a reliable measure and shows validity evidences.

The Questionnaire about Interpersonal Difficulties for Adolescents: Reliability and Validity Evidence in Colombian Adolescents

The aim of this study was to analyze reliability and validity evidence of scores on the Colombian version of the Questionnaire about Interpersonal Difficulties for Adolescents (QIDA) in a sample of 1,628 adolescents (65.7% boys), ranging in age from 12 to 18 years. Confirmatory factor analyses replicated the correlated five-factor structure of the QIDA: Assertiveness, Heterosexual Relationships, Public Speaking, Family Relationships, and Close Friendships. Internal consistency for the QIDA and subscales scores was excellent. Girls reported higher level of perceived anxiety in heterosexual relationships, whereas boys showed more anxiety in close friendships and decreased interpersonal anxiety during adolescence. Results support the reliability and validity of the scores on the Colombian version of the QIDA.

Reliability and Validity Evidence of Scores on the French Version of the Questionnaire about Interpersonal Difficulties for Adolescents

This study examined the reliability and validity evidence drawn from the scores of the French version of the Questionnaire about Interpersonal Difficulties for Adolescents (QIDA) in a sample of 957 adolescents (48.5% boys) ranging in age from 11 to 18 years (M = 14.48, SD = 1.85). A principal axis factoring (PAF) and confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) were performed to determine the fit of the factor structure of scores on the QIDA. PAF and CFA replicated the previously identified correlated five-factor structure of the QIDA: Assertiveness, Heterosexual Relationships, Public Speaking, Family Relationships, and Close Friendships. The QIDA yielded acceptable reliability scores for French adolescents. Validity evidence of QIDA was also established through correlations with scores on the School Anxiety Inventory and the Social Anxiety Scale for Adolescents. Most of the correlations were positive and exceeded the established criteria of statistical significance, but the magnitude of these varied according to the scales of the QIDA. Results supported the reliability and validity evidence drawn from the scores of the French version of the QIDA.