793 resultados para Regional population forecasting, service provision, box-Jenkins model


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This article presents a case study of a nonprofit child welfare agency that delivered family preservation services under three different purchase-of-service (POS) contracts. The research specifically focuses on how certain POS contract provisions and reimbursement rates influence the delivery of family preservation services. The three contacts examined differed on criteria, such as reimbursement mechanism, service volume, definition of clientele, and reimbursement rate. The study found that as reimbursement rates decline and as administrative costs increase, the service provider struggled with cash flow, staffing, fundraising, and service provision, among other things. It is concluded that contract-related resources, policies, and procedures impact provider agencies in multiple, significant ways that are critical to the provision of services and the accomplishment of positive client outcomes.

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This article presents the findings of a qualitative study exploring the experiences of women living in Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area, Argentina, with the use of misoprostol for inducing an abortion. We asked women about the range of decisions they had to make, their emotions, the physical experience, strategies they needed to use, including seeking health care advice and in dealing with a clandestine medical abortion, and their overall evaluation of the experience. An in-depth interview schedule was used. The women had either used misoprostol and sought counselling or care at a public hospital (n=24) or had used misoprostol based on the advice of a local hotline, information from the internet or from other women (n=21). Four stages in the women’s experiences were identified: how the decision to terminate the pregnancy was taken, how the medication was obtained, how the tablets were used, and reflections on the outcome whether or not they sought medical advice. Safety and privacy were key in deciding to use medical abortion. Access to the medication was the main obstacle, requiring a prescription or a friendly drugstore. Correct information about the number of pills to use and dosage intervals was the least easy to obtain and caused concerns. The possibility of choosing a time of privacy and having the company of a close one was highlighted as a unique advantage of medical abortion. Efforts to improve abortion law, policy and service provision in Argentina in order to ensure the best possible conditions for use of medical abortion by women should be redoubled.

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In the New Jersey Coastal Plain, a silty to clayey sedimentary unit (the Marlboro Formation) represents deposition during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM). This interval is remarkably different from the glauconitic sands and silts of the underlying Paleocene Vincentown and overlying Eocene Manasquan Formation. We integrate new and published stable isotope, biostratigraphic, lithostratigraphic and ecostratigraphic records, constructing a detailed time frame for the PETM along a depth gradient at core sites Clayton, Wilson Lake, Ancora and Bass River (updip to downdip). The onset of the PETM, marked by the base of the carbon isotope excursion (CIE), is within the gradual transition from glauconitic silty sands to silty clay, and represented fully at the updip sites (Wilson Lake and Clayton). The CIE "core" interval is expanded at the updip sites, but truncated. The CIE "core" is complete at the Bass River and Ancora sites, where the early part of the recovery is present (most complete at Ancora). The extent to which the PETM is expressed in the sediments is highly variable between sites, with a significant unconformity at the base of the overlying lower Eocene sediments. Our regional correlation framework provides an improved age model, allowing better understanding of the progression of environmental changes during the PETM. High-resolution benthic foraminiferal data document the change from a sediment-starved shelf setting to a tropical, river-dominated mud-belt system during the PETM, probably due to intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The excellent preservation of foraminifera during the PETM and the lack of severe benthic extinction suggest there was no extreme ocean acidification in shelf settings.

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Breeding distribution of the Adelie penguin, Pygoscelis adeliae, was surveyed with Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data along the coastline of Antarctica, an area covering approximately 330° of longitude. An algorithm was designed to minimize the radiometric contribution from exogenous sources and to retrieve Adelie penguin colony location and spatial extent from the ETM+ data. In all, 9143 individual pixels were classified as belonging to an Adelie penguin colony class out of the entire dataset of 195 ETM+ scenes, where the dimension of each pixel is 30 m by 30 m, and each scene is approximately 180 km by 180 km. Pixel clustering identified a total of 187 individual Adelie penguin colonies, ranging in size from a single pixel (900 m**2) to a maximum of 875 pixels (0.788 km**2). Colony retrievals have a very low error of commission, on the order of 1 percent or less, and the error of omission was estimated to be 2.9 percent by population based on comparisons with direct observations from surveys across east Antarctica. Thus, the Landsat retrievals can successfully locate Adelie penguin colonies that account for ~97 percent of a regional population. Geographic coordinates and the spatial extent of each colony retrieved from the Landsat data are available publically. Regional analysis found several areas where the Landsat retrievals suggest populations that are significantly larger than published estimates. Six Adelie penguin colonies were found that are believed to be unreported in the literature.

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Los servicios portuarios son responsables de la mayor parte del coste que se produce en el paso de la mercancía por un puerto, particularmente el servicio de manipulación de mercancías. La prestación de éstos de forma fiable y eficiente resulta clave en un sector en el que existe una gran opacidad. Con el estudio realizado se dota a la Administración responsable, la Autoridad Portuaria, de una herramienta que le ayude a objetivar la toma de decisiones tanto a la hora de otorgar las preceptivas licencias como durante el periodo de prestación del servicio. Además se proponen una serie de medidas cuya aplicación mejoraría las condiciones de prestación del servicio así como una reducción de costes al paso de la mercancía por el puerto. Port services are responsible for most of the cost for the passing of goods through the port, especially the cargo handling service. Reliability and efficiency in the provision of them are key in a sector where there is a high opacity. With this study, we provide the responsible Administration, the Port Authority, with a tool that will help to objectify the decision making process, both at the time of granting the required licenses and during the period of the service provision. Also, proposes a number of measures whose implementation would improve the conditions of the service delivery and will reduce the total cost of transporting goods through the port.

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Se presenta en este artículo la simulación de las características de envases de vidrio, mediante modelos auto regresivos (AR), siguiendo el enfoque Box-Jenkins. El artículo se presenta en dos partes: en la primera, se demuestra la adecuación de un modelo AR (2), para la simulación de los espesores a partir de las características estadísticas determinadas sobre cortes longitudinales de envases reales. En la segunda parte, se presenta la forma práctica que se ha desarrollado para la simulación de una muestra de veinte recipientes.

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El mercado de outsourcing ha estado creciendo en los últimos años y se prevé que lo siga haciendo en los próximos, pero este crecimiento ha estado limitado por el fracaso de muchos proyectos que, en algunos casos, han llevado a las organizaciones a asumir de nuevo esos servicios (insourcing). Estos fracasos se han debido en gran parte a los problemas con los proveedores: falta de experiencia, de capacidades para asumir los proyectos, dificultad en la comunicación,… A diferencia de lo que ocurre en otras disciplinas, no existe una metodología que ayude, tanto a los clientes como a los proveedores de servicios de outsourcing de TI, a gobernar y gestionar sus proyectos y conseguir los resultados buscados. En los últimos años han aparecido, al mismo tiempo que la expansión del outsourcing, algunos modelos y marcos de buenas prácticas para la gestión de los proyectos de outsourcing, pero generalmente sólo cubren algunos aspectos de la gestión. No se los puede considerar metodologías, porque no definen roles, responsabilidades ni entregables. Por lo general, son el resultado de la experiencia en la gestión de otros tipos de proyectos. Hay que considerar también que, excepto eSCM-SP, que es un modelo de buenas prácticas para mejorar la capacidad en la provisión de servicios, están todos orientados al cliente. El objetivo de esta tesis es, por un lado, demostrar la necesidad de contar con una metodología que guíe a los proveedores durante todo el ciclo de vida un proyecto de outsourcing y, por otro, proponer una metodología que contemple desde la fase inicial de la búsqueda de oportunidades de negocio, evaluación de las propuestas RFP, la decisión de hacer una oferta o no para la prestación de servicios, la participación en la due diligence, la firma del contrato, la transición y la entrega de servicios, hasta la finalización del contrato. La metodología se ha organizado en base a un ciclo de vida del outsourcing de cinco etapas, definiendo para cada una de ellas los roles que participan y las responsabilidades que deberán asumir, las actividades a realizar y los entregables que se deberán generar, y que servirán de elementos de control tanto para la gestión del proyecto como para la provisión del servicio. La validación de la metodología se ha realizado aplicándola en proyectos de provisión de servicios de TI de una mediana empresa española y comparando los resultados obtenidos con los conseguidos en proyectos anteriores. ABSTRACT The outsourcing market has been growing in recent years and it is expected to keep doing so in the coming years, but this growth has been limited by the failure of many projects that, in some cases, has led organizations to take back those services (insourcing). These failures have been due to a major degree to problems with providers: lack of experience and capacity to take on the projects, and difficulties of communication. Unlike what happens in other disciplines, there is no methodology for helping both customers and providers of outsourcing services. In recent years, some good practice frameworks have also appeared at the same time as the expansion of outsourcing. They are not methodologies because they have not defined any roles, responsibilities and deliverables. These frameworks aim to help organizations to be successful at managing and governing outsourcing projects. They are usually the result of their experience in managing other kinds of projects. In consequence, it is not appropriate to name them "methodologies" for managing outsourcing projects and much less "standards". It is also important to note that all existing good practice frameworks, except eSCM-SP, are client-oriented. The aim of this thesis is to state the need to propose a methodology that guides providers throughout the whole outsourcing life cycle and facilitates the provision of quality services and their management, and the proposal of a methodology in which the stages, activities, deliverables, roles and responsibilities are clearly defined. The proposed methodology cover all the stages of the outsourcing life cycle, from the early stage of searching for business opportunities, evaluation of the RFP proposals, the decision to bid or not to bid for the service provision, participation in the due diligence if necessary, the signing of the contract, the transition and delivery of service to the termination of the contract. For each activity, roles, responsibilities and deliverables have been defined. The validation of the methodology has been done by applying it in the provision of some outsourcing projects carried out by a Spanish IT medium company and comparing the results with those obtained in previous projects.

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This paper presents an experimental and systematic investigation about how geometric parameters on a biplane configuration have an influence on aerodynamic parameters. This experimental investigation has been developed in a two-dimensional approach. Theoretical studies about biplanes configurations have been developed in the past, but there is not enough information about experimental wind tunnel data at low Reynolds number. This two-dimensional study is a first step to further tridimensional investigations about the box wing configuration. The main objective of the study is to find the relationships between the geometrical parameters which present the best aerodynamic behavior: the highest lift, the lowest drag and the lowest slope of the pitching moment. A tridimensional wing-box model will be designed following the pattern of the two dimensional study conclusions. It will respond to the geometrical relationships that have been considered to show the better aerodynamic behavior. This box-wing model will be studied in the aim of comparing the advantages and disadvantages between this biplane configuration and the plane configuration, looking for implementing the box-wing in the UAV?s field. Although the box wing configuration has been used in a small number of existing UAV, prestigious researchers have found it as a field of high aerodynamic and structural potential.

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This study investigates the effect of price and travel time fairness and spatial equity in transit provision on the perceived transit service quality, willingness to pay, and habitual frequency of use. Based on the theory of planned behavior, we developed a web-based questionnaire for revealed preferences data collection. The survey was administered among young people in Copenhagen and Lisbon to explore the transit perceptions and use under different economic and transit provision conditions. The survey yielded 499 questionnaires, analyzed by means of structural equation models. Results show that higher perceived fairness relates positively to higher perceived quality of transit service and higher perceived ease of paying for transit use. Higher perceived spatial equity in service provision is associated with higher perceived service quality. Higher perceived service quality relates to higher perceived ease of payment, which links to higher frequency of transit use.

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Este trabalho avalia a influência das emoções humanas expressas pela mímica da face na tomada de decisão de sistemas computacionais, com o objetivo de melhorar a experiência do usuário. Para isso, foram desenvolvidos três módulos: o primeiro trata-se de um sistema de computação assistiva - uma prancha de comunicação alternativa e ampliada em versão digital. O segundo módulo, aqui denominado Módulo Afetivo, trata-se de um sistema de computação afetiva que, por meio de Visão Computacional, capta a mímica da face do usuário e classifica seu estado emocional. Este segundo módulo foi implementado em duas etapas, as duas inspiradas no Sistema de Codificação de Ações Faciais (FACS), que identifica expressões faciais com base no sistema cognitivo humano. Na primeira etapa, o Módulo Afetivo realiza a inferência dos estados emocionais básicos: felicidade, surpresa, raiva, medo, tristeza, aversão e, ainda, o estado neutro. Segundo a maioria dos pesquisadores da área, as emoções básicas são inatas e universais, o que torna o módulo afetivo generalizável a qualquer população. Os testes realizados com o modelo proposto apresentaram resultados 10,9% acima dos resultados que usam metodologias semelhantes. Também foram realizadas análises de emoções espontâneas, e os resultados computacionais aproximam-se da taxa de acerto dos seres humanos. Na segunda etapa do desenvolvimento do Módulo Afetivo, o objetivo foi identificar expressões faciais que refletem a insatisfação ou a dificuldade de uma pessoa durante o uso de sistemas computacionais. Assim, o primeiro modelo do Módulo Afetivo foi ajustado para este fim. Por fim, foi desenvolvido um Módulo de Tomada de Decisão que recebe informações do Módulo Afetivo e faz intervenções no Sistema Computacional. Parâmetros como tamanho do ícone, arraste convertido em clique e velocidade de varredura são alterados em tempo real pelo Módulo de Tomada de Decisão no sistema computacional assistivo, de acordo com as informações geradas pelo Módulo Afetivo. Como o Módulo Afetivo não possui uma etapa de treinamento para inferência do estado emocional, foi proposto um algoritmo de face neutra para resolver o problema da inicialização com faces contendo emoções. Também foi proposto, neste trabalho, a divisão dos sinais faciais rápidos entre sinais de linha base (tique e outros ruídos na movimentação da face que não se tratam de sinais emocionais) e sinais emocionais. Os resultados dos Estudos de Caso realizados com os alunos da APAE de Presidente Prudente demonstraram que é possível melhorar a experiência do usuário, configurando um sistema computacional com informações emocionais expressas pela mímica da face.

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Entre as muitas aplicações das tecnologias de identificação biológica humana, estão as finalidades forenses. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi verificar frequências alélicas de Short Tandem Repeat (STR) e os parâmetros estatísticos de interesse em genética de populações e forense para desenvolver o primeiro banco de dados populacional de DNA na Faculdade de Odontologia de Bauru, Universidade de São Paulo, (FOB/USP) para futuros usos forenses. Frequências alélicas de 15 locos autossômicos e do marcador de gênero amelogenina foram determinadas utilizando amostras de 200 μL de saliva doados por 296 alunos de graduação da FOB/USP, com idade ≥ 18 anos, após aprovação ética. Os testes laboratoriais foram feitos com kits comerciais. Resultados e parâmetros estatísticos foram obtidos por meio de programas clássicos: GeneMapper-ID-X, MS Excel 2002 versão 10.6871.6870, GenAlEx 6.5 e Arlequin 3.5, comparando quatro populações (brasileira, portuguesa, norte-americana e a população deste estudo). Os locos mais polimórficos foram D18S51 (17 alelos) e FGA (15 alelos), seguidos pelo D21S11 (13 alelos) e os menos polimórficos foram D16S539 e TH01 (7 alelos cada). A análise comparativa com amostra da população brasileira proveniente de estudos anteriores (n > 100.000) pelo teste goodness of fit X2 index não mostrou diferenças significativas entre estes grupos (p = 0,9999). Outros parâmetros estatísticos foram calculados comparando as populações: local (deste estudo), portuguesa e norte-americana. A análise de variância molecular (AMOVA) entre as três populações, entre as pessoas da mesma população e para cada pessoa de cada população mostrou que existe uma elevada variância individual (99%), que esta variância é mantida uniformemente entre as pessoas da mesma amostra/região (1%) e entre as três populações estudadas (0%). O estudo confirmou o elevado grau de polimorfismo e a alta heterozigosidade (96,5%) da população. Houve diferença significativa quanto ao gênero (79,7% mulheres) quando comparado à população brasileira em geral (50,4%), explicada pelas características do corpo discente da FOB/USP composto por 80,6% de pessoas do gênero feminino. Interessante foi a observação de uma microvariante alélica no loco D18S51, fora da escada padrão e da escala de abrangência do kit, correspondente ao alelo 29, ainda não definida na base de dados internacional (STRBase, atualizada em 07/08/2015). Esta microvariante deverá ser confirmada por testes familiares e sequenciamento de DNA para verificar a possibilidade de outra ocorrência familiar ou duplicação de nucleotídeos. No futuro, os dados obtidos neste estudo devem ser incorporados ao banco de dados da população brasileira e podem ser considerados como referência genética da população regional, ajudando a elucidar casos forenses. Após a confirmação, a potencial nova microvariante alélica contribuirá para a base de dados internacional STRBase.

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Introduction. It is quite uncommon to associate migration with the rules on services trade. Indeed, all economic definitions of services insist on their immaterial nature and on the increased possibility of trading them ‘virtually’ over networks or else, without any physical movement of the parties involved. Somehow this ‘immaterial’ nature of services reflects on their providers/recipients which seem to be ‘invisible’. Even though most services still require the physical contact of the provider with the recipient1 and, when provided over national borders, do entail migration, service providers and/or recipients are rarely thought of as ‘immigrants’. This may be due to the fact that they enter the foreign territory with a specific aim and, once this aim accomplished, move back to their state of origin; technically they only qualify as short term non-cyclical migrants and are of little interest to policy-makers. A second reason may be that both service providers and recipients are economically desirable: the former are typically highly skilled and trained professionals and the latter are well-off ‘visitors’, increasing consumption in the host state. The legal definition of services in Article 57 TFEU (ex Art. 50 EC) further nourishes this idea about service providers/recipients not being migrants: the relevant Treaty rules only apply when the provisions on free movement of workers and freedom of establishment – themselves clearly linked to migration – do not apply. This distinction has been fleshed up by the ECJ which has consistently held that the distinction between the rules on establishment, on the one hand, and the rules on services, on the other, lies on duration.2 Indeed, all EC manuals state four types of service provision falling under the EC Treaty: a) where the service provider moves to the recipient’s state, for a short period of time (longer stay would amount to establishment), b) where the service recipients themselves move to the state where the service is offered (eg for medical care, education, tourism etc), c) where both service providers and recipients move together in another member state (eg a tourist guide accompanying a group travelling abroad) and d) where the service itself is provided across the borders (typically through the use of ICTs). None of these situations would typically qualify as migration. The above ‘dissociation’ between services and migration has been gradually weakened in the recent years. Indeed, migration is increasingly connected to the transnational provision of services. This is the result of three kinds of factors: developments in the European Court of Justice’s (ECJ) case law; legislative initiatives in the EU; and the GATS. Each one of these is considered in some detail below. The aim of the analysis which follows is to show the extent to which (legislative and judicial) policies aimed at the free provision of services actively affect migration conditions within the EU. The EC rules on the provision of services primarily affect the movement of EU nationals. As it will be shown below, however, third country nationals (TCNs) may also claim the benefits of the rules on services, either as recipients thereof or as employees of some EC undertaking which is providing services in another member state (posted workers).

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Includes bibliographical references.

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Mode of access: Internet.

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Includes bibliographical references and indexes.