Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Textural controls on induced polarization and permeability in granular media

The spatial resolution visualized with hydrological models and the conceptualized images of subsurface hydrological processes often exceed resolution of the data collected with classical instrumentation at the field scale. In recent years it was possible to increasingly diminish the inherent gap to information from point like field data through the application of hydrogeophysical methods at field-scale. With regards to all common geophysical exploration techniques, electric and electromagnetic methods have arguably to greatest sensitivity to hydrologically relevant parameters. Of particular interest in this context are induced polarisation (IP) measurements, which essentially constrain the capacity of a probed subsurface region to store an electrical charge. In the absence of metallic conductors the IP- response is largely driven by current conduction along the grain surfaces. This offers the perspective to link such measurements to the characteristics of the solid-fluid-interface and thus, at least in unconsolidated sediments, should allow for first-order estimates of the permeability structure.¦While the IP-effect is well explored through laboratory experiments and in part verified through field data for clay-rich environments, the applicability of IP-based characterizations to clay-poor aquifers is not clear. For example, polarization mechanisms like membrane polarization are not applicable in the rather wide pore-systems of clay free sands, and the direct transposition of Schwarz' theory relating polarization of spheres to the relaxation mechanism of polarized cells to complex natural sediments yields ambiguous results.¦In order to improve our understanding of the structural origins of IP-signals in such environments as well as their correlation with pertinent hydrological parameters, various laboratory measurements have been conducted. We consider saturated quartz samples with a grain size spectrum varying from fine sand to fine gravel, that is grain diameters between 0,09 and 5,6 mm, as well as corresponding pertinent mixtures which can be regarded as proxies for widespread alluvial deposits. The pore space characteristics are altered by changing (i) the grain size spectra, (ii) the degree of compaction, and (iii) the level of sorting. We then examined how these changes affect the SIP response, the hydraulic conductivity, and the specific surface area of the considered samples, while keeping any electrochemical variability during the measurements as small as possible. The results do not follow simple assumptions on relationships to single parameters such as grain size. It was found that the complexity of natural occurring media is not yet sufficiently represented when modelling IP. At the same time simple correlation to permeability was found to be strong and consistent. Hence, adaptations with the aim of better representing the geo-structure of natural porous media were applied to the simplified model space used in Schwarz' IP-effect-theory. The resulting semi- empiric relationship was found to more accurately predict the IP-effect and its relation to the parameters grain size and permeability. If combined with recent findings about the effect of pore fluid electrochemistry together with advanced complex resistivity tomography, these results will allow us to picture diverse aspects of the subsurface with relative certainty. Within the framework of single measurement campaigns, hydrologiste can than collect data with information about the geo-structure and geo-chemistry of the subsurface. However, additional research efforts will be necessary to further improve the understanding of the physical origins of IP-effect and minimize the potential for false interpretations.¦-¦Dans l'étude des processus et caractéristiques hydrologiques des subsurfaces, la résolution spatiale donnée par les modèles hydrologiques dépasse souvent la résolution des données du terrain récoltées avec des méthodes classiques d'hydrologie. Récemment il est possible de réduire de plus en plus cet divergence spatiale entre modèles numériques et données du terrain par l'utilisation de méthodes géophysiques, notamment celles géoélectriques. Parmi les méthodes électriques, la polarisation provoquée (PP) permet de représenter la capacité des roches poreuses et des sols à stocker une charge électrique. En l'absence des métaux dans le sous-sol, cet effet est largement influencé par des caractéristiques de surface des matériaux. En conséquence les mesures PP offrent une information des interfaces entre solides et fluides dans les matériaux poreux que nous pouvons lier à la perméabilité également dirigée par ces mêmes paramètres. L'effet de la polarisation provoquée à été étudié dans différentes études de laboratoire, ainsi que sur le terrain. A cause d'une faible capacité de polarisation des matériaux sableux, comparé aux argiles, leur caractérisation par l'effet-PP reste difficile a interpréter d'une manière cohérente pour les environnements hétérogènes.¦Pour améliorer les connaissances sur l'importance de la structure du sous-sol sableux envers l'effet PP et des paramètres hydrologiques, nous avons fait des mesures de laboratoire variées. En détail, nous avons considéré des échantillons sableux de quartz avec des distributions de taille de grain entre sables fins et graviers fins, en diamètre cela fait entre 0,09 et 5,6 mm. Les caractéristiques de l'espace poreux sont changées en modifiant (i) la distribution de taille des grains, (ii) le degré de compaction, et (iii) le niveau d'hétérogénéité dans la distribution de taille de grains. En suite nous étudions comment ces changements influencent l'effet-PP, la perméabilité et la surface spécifique des échantillons. Les paramètres électrochimiques sont gardés à un minimum pendant les mesures. Les résultats ne montrent pas de relation simple entre les paramètres pétro-physiques comme par exemples la taille des grains. La complexité des media naturels n'est pas encore suffisamment représenté par les modèles des processus PP. Néanmoins, la simple corrélation entre effet PP et perméabilité est fort et consistant. En conséquence la théorie de Schwarz sur l'effet-PP a été adapté de manière semi-empirique pour mieux pouvoir estimer la relation entre les résultats de l'effet-PP et les paramètres taille de graines et perméabilité. Nos résultats concernant l'influence de la texture des matériaux et celles de l'effet de l'électrochimie des fluides dans les pores, permettront de visualiser des divers aspects du sous-sol. Avec des telles mesures géo-électriques, les hydrologues peuvent collectionner des données contenant des informations sur la structure et la chimie des fluides des sous-sols. Néanmoins, plus de recherches sur les origines physiques de l'effet-PP sont nécessaires afin de minimiser le risque potentiel d'une mauvaise interprétation des données.

Photodynamic therapy as an adjunct to surgery for malignant pleural mesothelioma

Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is increasingly observed in industrial countries. Despite concerted efforts and combined treatments including surgery, chemotherapy and irradiation patients eventually succumb from relentless local progression of the disease. Recent publications have demonstrated an improved response rate with the cytostatic agent pemetrexed which will be tested in a neoadjuvant setting followed by surgery. However, effective tumor control requires new loco-regional treatment modalities, eventually in combination with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Intraoperative photodynamic therapy (PDT) of the chest cavity has been proposed as an attractive treatment concept for MPM since a selective treatment of the tumor bed following resection has the potential to improve local tumor control. It has been shown to afford tumor destruction in patients with mesothelioma but efficiency and selectivity is not yet sufficient for routine clinical application. Experimental work on MPM has shown that tumor selectivity of PDT depend on treatment conditions and can be improved by structural modification and improved targeting of the sensitizers. Refinements of PDT for mesothelioma will depend on a more detailed understanding of the pathways for preferential sensitizer accumulation within the tumor as well as on synergistic effects between PDT and chemotherapeutic agents.

Local alignment refinement using structural assessment.

Homology modeling is the most commonly used technique to build a three-dimensional model for a protein sequence. It heavily relies on the quality of the sequence alignment between the protein to model and related proteins with a known three dimensional structure. Alignment quality can be assessed according to the physico-chemical properties of the three dimensional models it produces.In this work, we introduce fifteen predictors designed to evaluate the properties of the models obtained for various alignments. They consist of an energy value obtained from different force fields (CHARMM, ProsaII or ANOLEA) computed on residue selected around misaligned regions. These predictors were evaluated on ten challenging test cases. For each target, all possible ungapped alignments are generated and their corresponding models are computed and evaluated.The best predictor, retrieving the structural alignment for 9 out of 10 test cases, is based on the ANOLEA atomistic mean force potential and takes into account residues around misaligned secondary structure elements. The performance of the other predictors is significantly lower. This work shows that substantial improvement in local alignments can be obtained by careful assessment of the local structure of the resulting models.

Growth and yield models in Spain: historical overview, contemporary examples and perspectives

En el presente trabajo se presenta una revisión sobre los modelos forestales desarrollados en España durante los últimos años, tanto para la producción maderable como no maderable y, para la dinámica de los bosques (regeneración, mortalidad). Se presentan modelos tanto de rodal completo como de clases diamétricas y de árbol individual. Los modelos desarrollados hasta la fecha se han desarrollado a partir de datos procedentes de parcelas permanentes, ensayos y el Inventario Forestal Nacional. En el trabajo se muestran los diferentes submodelos desarrollados hasta la fecha, así como las plataformas informáticas que permiten utilizar dichos modelos. Se incluyen las principales perspectivas de desarrollo de la modelización forestal en España.

T-Coffee: a web server for the multiple sequence alignment of protein and RNA sequences using structural information and homology extension

This article introduces a new interface for T-Coffee, a consistency-based multiple sequence alignment program. This interface provides an easy and intuitive access to the most popular functionality of the package. These include the default T-Coffee mode for protein and nucleic acid sequences, the M-Coffee mode that allows combining the output of any other aligners, and template-based modes of T-Coffee that deliver high accuracy alignments while using structural or homology derived templates. These three available template modes are Expresso for the alignment of protein with a known 3D-Structure, R-Coffee to align RNA sequences with conserved secondary structures and PSI-Coffee to accurately align distantly related sequences using homology extension. The new server benefits from recent improvements of the T-Coffee algorithm and can align up to 150 sequences as long as 10 000 residues and is available from both http://www.tcoffee.org and its main mirror http://tcoffee.crg.cat.

Protective effects of social networks on disability among older adults in Spain

The loss of autonomy at advanced ages is not only associated with ageing, but also with the characteristics of the physical and social environment. Recent investigations have shown that social networks, social engagement and participation act like predictors of disability among the elderly. The aim of this study is to determine whether social networks are related to the development and progression of disability in the early years of old age. The source of data is the first wave of the survey "Processes of Vulnerability among Spanish Elderly", carried out in 2005 to a sample of 1 244 individuals. The population object of study is the cohort aged 70 to 74 years in metropolitan areas (Madrid and Barcelona) and not institutionalized. Disability is measured by the development of basic activities of daily life (ADL), and instrumental activities of daily life (IADL). The structural aspects of the social relationships are measured through the diversity of social networks and participation. We used the social network index (SNI). For each point over the SNI, the risk of developing any type of disability decreased by 49% (HR = 0.51, 95%CI = 0.31-0.82). The SNI was a decisive factor in all forecasting models constructed with some hazard ratios (HR) that ranged from 0.29 (95%CI = 0.14-0.59) in the first model to 0.43 (95%CI 0.20-0.90) in the full model. The results of the present study showed a strong association between an active social life, emotional support provided by friends and confidents and disability. These findings suggest a protective effect of social networks on disability. Also, these results indicate that some family and emotional ties have a significant effect on both the prevalence and the incidence of disability.

Minimal requirements for parameters to be used for the development of predictive models for microbial source tracking. The example of the pair somatic coliphages and phages infecting Bacteroides

Several methods and approaches for measuring parameters to determine fecal sources of pollution in water have been developed in recent years. No single microbial or chemical parameter has proved sufficient to determine the source of fecal pollution. Combinations of parameters involving at least one discriminating indicator and one universal fecal indicator offer the most promising solutions for qualitative and quantitative analyses. The universal (nondiscriminating) fecal indicator provides quantitative information regarding the fecal load. The discriminating indicator contributes to the identification of a specific source. The relative values of the parameters derived from both kinds of indicators could provide information regarding the contribution to the total fecal load from each origin. It is also essential that both parameters characteristically persist in the environment for similar periods. Numerical analysis, such as inductive learning methods, could be used to select the most suitable and the lowest number of parameters to develop predictive models. These combinations of parameters provide information on factors affecting the models, such as dilution, specific types of animal source, persistence of microbial tracers, and complex mixtures from different sources. The combined use of the enumeration of somatic coliphages and the enumeration of Bacteroides-phages using different host specific strains (one from humans and another from pigs), both selected using the suggested approach, provides a feasible model for quantitative and qualitative analyses of fecal source identification.

Central serous chorioretinopathy: Recent findings and new physiopathology hypothesis.

Central serous chorioretinopathy (CSCR) is a major cause of vision threat among middle-aged male individuals. Multimodal imaging led to the description of a wide range of CSCR manifestations, and highlighted the contribution of the choroid and pigment epithelium in CSCR pathogenesis. However, the exact molecular mechanisms of CSCR have remained uncertain. The aim of this review is to recapitulate the clinical understanding of CSCR, with an emphasis on the most recent findings on epidemiology, risk factors, clinical and imaging diagnosis, and treatments options. It also gives an overview of the novel mineralocorticoid pathway hypothesis, from animal data to clinical evidences of the biological efficacy of oral mineralocorticoid antagonists in acute and chronic CSCR patients. In rodents, activation of the mineralocorticoid pathway in ocular cells either by intravitreous injection of its specific ligand, aldosterone, or by over-expression of the receptor specifically in the vascular endothelium, induced ocular phenotypes carrying many features of acute CSCR. Molecular mechanisms include expression of the calcium-dependent potassium channel (KCa2.3) in the endothelium of choroidal vessels, inducing subsequent vasodilation. Inappropriate or over-activation of the mineralocorticoid receptor in ocular cells and other tissues (such as brain, vessels) could link CSCR with the known co-morbidities observed in CSCR patients, including hypertension, coronary disease and psychological stress.

Disentangling the formation of contrasting tree line physiognomies combining model selection and Bayesian parameterization for simulation models.

Alpine tree-line ecotones are characterized by marked changes at small spatial scales that may result in a variety of physiognomies. A set of alternative individual-based models was tested with data from four contrasting Pinus uncinata ecotones in the central Spanish Pyrenees to reveal the minimal subset of processes required for tree-line formation. A Bayesian approach combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods was employed to obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters, allowing the use of model selection procedures. The main features of real tree lines emerged only in models considering nonlinear responses in individual rates of growth or mortality with respect to the altitudinal gradient. Variation in tree-line physiognomy reflected mainly changes in the relative importance of these nonlinear responses, while other processes, such as dispersal limitation and facilitation, played a secondary role. Different nonlinear responses also determined the presence or absence of krummholz, in agreement with recent findings highlighting a different response of diffuse and abrupt or krummholz tree lines to climate change. The method presented here can be widely applied in individual-based simulation models and will turn model selection and evaluation in this type of models into a more transparent, effective, and efficient exercise.

Differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with the Five-Factor and HEXACO models of personality.

Recent literature evidences differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with constructs in the interpersonal domain. In line with this research, we examine the respective relationships of each just-world belief with the Five-Factor and the HEXACO models of personality in one representative sample of the working population of Switzerland and one sample of the general US population, respectively. One suppressor effect was observed in both samples: Neuroticism and emotionality was positively associated with general just-world belief, but only after controlling for personal just-world belief. In addition, agreeableness was positively and honesty-humility negatively associated with general just-world belief but unrelated to personal just-world belief. Conscientiousness was consistently unrelated to any of the just-world belief and extraversion and openness to experience revealed unstable coefficients across studies. We discuss these points in light of just-world theory and their implications for future research taking both dimensions into account.

Studying the recent situation of information and communication technology industry

Globaalinen liiketoimintaympäristö on muutoksessa. Uudet teknologiat muuttavat toimintaympäristöä ja talouden säännöt muuttuvat nopeasti. Uusia liiketoimintamalleja tarvitaan. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli analysoida tieto- ja viestintäteollisuuden (ICT-teollisuus) nykytilannetta strategisesta ja kilpailuanalyyttisestä näkökulmasta, sekä luoda kuva ICT-teollisuudesta ja sen suurista pelureista Euroopassa ja USA:ssa. Tutkimus analysoi viittä suurta ICT-alan yritystä. Tutkimus oli luonteeltaan sekä kvalitatiivinen että kvantitatiivinen. Yrityksiä analysoitiin käyttäen numeerista ja laadullista materiaalia. Tutkimus perustui kirjallisuuteen, artikkeleihin, tutkimusraportteihin, yritysten internet-kotisivuihin ja vuosikertomuksiin. Tutkimuksen tuloksena voitiin löytää sekä yhtäläisyyksiä että eroavaisuuksia yritysten liiketoimintamallien ja taloudellisen menestymisen väliltä.

Comparison of accelerated T1-weighted whole-brain structural-imaging protocols.

Imaging in neuroscience, clinical research and pharmaceutical trials often employs the 3D magnetisation-prepared rapid gradient-echo (MPRAGE) sequence to obtain structural T1-weighted images with high spatial resolution of the human brain. Typical research and clinical routine MPRAGE protocols with ~1mm isotropic resolution require data acquisition time in the range of 5-10min and often use only moderate two-fold acceleration factor for parallel imaging. Recent advances in MRI hardware and acquisition methodology promise improved leverage of the MR signal and more benign artefact properties in particular when employing increased acceleration factors in clinical routine and research. In this study, we examined four variants of a four-fold-accelerated MPRAGE protocol (2D-GRAPPA, CAIPIRINHA, CAIPIRINHA elliptical, and segmented MPRAGE) and compared clinical readings, basic image quality metrics (SNR, CNR), and automated brain tissue segmentation for morphological assessments of brain structures. The results were benchmarked against a widely-used two-fold-accelerated 3T ADNI MPRAGE protocol that served as reference in this study. 22 healthy subjects (age=20-44yrs.) were imaged with all MPRAGE variants in a single session. An experienced reader rated all images of clinically useful image quality. CAIPIRINHA MPRAGE scans were perceived on average to be of identical value for reading as the reference ADNI-2 protocol. SNR and CNR measurements exhibited the theoretically expected performance at the four-fold acceleration. The results of this study demonstrate that the four-fold accelerated protocols introduce systematic biases in the segmentation results of some brain structures compared to the reference ADNI-2 protocol. Furthermore, results suggest that the increased noise levels in the accelerated protocols play an important role in introducing these biases, at least under the present study conditions.

Facing Structural Disadvantage: The Role of Ingroup Connectedness

This thesis focuses on the social-psychological factors that help coping with structural disadvantage, and specifically on the role of cohesive ingroups and the sense of connectedness and efficacy they entail in this process. It aims to complement existing group-based models of coping that are grounded in a categorization perspective to groups and consequently focus exclusively on the large-scale categories made salient in intergroup contexts of comparisons. The dissertation accomplishes this aim through a reconsideration of between-persons relational interdependence as a sufficient and independent antecedent of a sense of groupness, and the benefits that a sense of group connectedness in one's direct environment, regardless of the categorical or relational basis of groupness, might have in the everyday struggles of disadvantaged group members. The three empirical papers aim to validate this approach, outlined in the first theoretical introduction, by testing derived hypotheses. They are based on data collected with youth populations (15-30) from three institutions in French-speaking Switzerland within the context of a larger project on youth transitions. Methods of data collection are paper-pencil questionnaires and in-depth interviews with a selected sub-sample of participants. The key argument of the first paper is that members of socially disadvantaged categories face higher barriers to their life project and that a general sense of connectedness, either based on categorical identities or other proximal groups and relations, mitigates the feeling of powerlessness associated with this experience. The second paper develops and tests a model that defines individual needs satisfaction as antecedent of self-group bonds and the efficacy beliefs derived from these intragroup bonds as the mechanism underlining the role of ingroups in coping. The third paper highlights the complexities that might be associated with the construction of a sense of groupness directly from intergroup comparisons and categorization-based disadvantage, and points out a more subtle understanding of the processes underling the emergence of groupness out of the situation of structural disadvantage. Overall, the findings confirm the central role of ingroups in coping with structural disadvantage and the importance of an understanding of groupness and its role that goes beyond the dominant focus on intergroup contexts and categorization processes.

NMR chemical shifts of the rhodopsin chromophore in the dark state and in bathorhodopsin: a hybrid QM/MM molecular dynamics study.

We investigate nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) parameters of the rhodopsin chromophore in the dark state of the protein and in the early photointermediate bathorhodopsin via first-principles molecular dynamics simulations and NMR chemical shift calculations in a hybrid quantum/classical (QM/MM) framework. NMR parameters are particularly sensitive to structural properties and to the chemical environment, which allows us to address different questions about the retinal chromophore in situ. Our calculations show that both the 13C and the 1H NMR chemical shifts are rather insensitive to the protonation state of Glu181, an ionizable amino acid side chain located in the vicinity of the isomerizing 11-cis bond. Thus, other techniques should be better suited to establish its protonation state. The calculated chemical shifts for bathorhodopsin further support our previously published theoretical structure, which is in very good agreement with more recent X-ray data.