Almirante: Evaluating the board game: Board game, startup, discounted cash flow, venture capital method, real options

This thesis evaluates a start-up company (Jogos Almirante Lda) whose single asset is a board game named Almirante. It aims to conclude whether it makes sense to create a company or just earn copyrights. The thesis analyzes the board game’s market, as part of the general toy’s market, from which some data exists: European countries as well as the USA. In this work it is analyzed the several ways to finance a start-up company and then present an overview of the valuation of the Jogos Almirante based on three different methods: Discounted Cash Flow, Venture Capital Method and Real Options.

Managing marginal capital requirements in solvency II: Analysis of a real insurance portfolio

This thesis provides a complete analysis of the Standard Capital Requirements given by Solvency II for a real insurance portfolio. We analyze the investment portfolio of BPI Vida e Pensões, an insurance company affiliated with a Portuguese bank BPI, both at security, sub-portfolio and asset class levels. By using the Standard Formula from EIOPA, Total SCR amounts to 239M€. This value is mostly explained by Market and Default Risk whereas the former is driven by Spread and Concentration Risks. Following the methodology of Leblanc (2011), we examine the Marginal Contribution of an asset to the SCR which allows for the evaluation of the risks of each security given its characteristics and interactions in the portfolio. The top contributors to the SCR are Corporate Bonds and Term Deposits. By exploring further the composition of the portfolio, our results show that slight changes in allocation of Term and Cash Deposits have severe impacts on the total Concentration and Default Risks, respectively. Also, diversification effects are very relevant by representing savings of 122M€. Finally, Solvency II represents an opportunity for the portfolio optimization. By constructing efficient frontiers, we find that as the target expected return increases, a shift from Term Deposits/ Commercial Papers to Eurozone/Peripheral and finally Equities occurs.

Structural transformation in the product space: Patterns and implications

Product fundamentals are essential in explaining heterogeneity in the product space. The scope for adapting and transferring capabilities into the production of different goods determines the speed and intensity of the structural transformation process and entails dissimilar development opportunities for nations. Future specialization patterns become then partly determined by the current network of products’ relatedness. Building on previous literature, this paper explicitly compares methodological concepts of product connectivity to conclude in favor of the density measure we propose combined with the Revealed Relatedness Index (RRI) approach presented by Freitas and Salvado (2011). Overall, RRI specifications displayed more consistent behavior when different time horizons are equated.

Value creation in the nursing home real estate investment market - A case study

The underlying thesis examines the value drivers of direct investments in nursing home real estate in Germany. A survey among investors and operators is conducted in order to identify significant value drivers. Moreover, based on survey results, a framework for assessing German nursing home real estate is developed. This is applied in a case-study about the set-up of a nursing home value-add fund which will demonstrate the value creation process of redeveloping an existing nursing home real estate portfolio. Through a concluding analysis the sources of value creation, sensitivities and future prospects of direct investing into German nursing home real estate are concluded.

Reallocation of resources between the tradable and non-tradable sector in Portugal: Assessing the degree of structural transformation in the Portuguese economy

Portugal implemented a large number of structural reforms in the recent years, which are expected to enhance the allocation of resources in the economy, namely from the non-tradable to tradable sector. We argue that the methodology to identify the tradable sector used by some international institutions is outdated and may hamper an accurate assessment of the progress achieved so far. Based on an enhanced methodology to identify the tradable sector, we are able to provide a more accurate, clearer picture of the recent structural developments of the Portuguese economy.

Real convergence in per capita output and growth in Eurozone: A time-series approach

The real convergence hypothesis has spurred a myriad of empirical tests and approaches in the economic literature. This Work Project intends to test for real output and growth convergence in all N(N-1)/2 possible pairs of output and output growth gaps of 14 Eurozone countries. This paper follows a time-series approach, as it tests for the presence of unit roots and persistence changes in the above mentioned pairs of output gaps, as well as for the existence of growth convergence with autoregressive models. Overall, significantly greater evidence has been found to support growth convergence rather than output convergence in our sample.

Dois alçados inéditos do Palácio Real de Campo de Ourique

A recente descoberta de dois magníficos desenhos para o alçado do Palácio Real a construir em Campo de Ourique levantam, pela erudição das suas opções arquitectónicas como pela sua superlativa qualidade estética, uma série de questões sobre a cultura arquitectónica e o desenho de arquitectura em Portugal, nos meados do século XVIII. Sendo um conjunto indissociável, um dos desenhos apresenta a data de 1760 com a assinatura, algo inusitada, do Capitão Dionizio de S. Dionizio, figura de pouco relevo na conjuntura dos arquitectos da Casa Real implicados nas grandes obras de renovação da cidade de Lisboa pós terramoto. Perante este personagem pouco conhecido pretendemos neste texto apresentar uma primeira abordagem abrindo, num futuro, um debate alargado sobre o quadro conceptual de influências de que o elevado nível artístico destes desenhos, sem paralelo na época, dá testemunho.

Recensão: David Santos, "A Reinvenção do real – Curadoria e Arte contemporânea no Museu do Neo-realismo"

Recensão de: David Santos, "A Reinvenção do real – Curadoria e Arte contemporânea no Museu do Neo-realismo", Lisboa: Sistema Solar CRL (Documenta), 2014

Implementação e validação do método de deteção de alergénios em alimentos por PCR em tempo real no Laboratório SGS

As alergias alimentares são um grande problema de saúde pública a nível mundial, que ocorre em todas as faixas etárias, tendo maior incidência em crianças. Mediada pelo sistema imunitário, a alergia alimentar é uma reação adversa que ocorre devido à presença de alergénios alimentares, que são identificados erroneamente como sendo um perigo ao organismo. Como é uma patologia que não possui cura, a prevenção é a melhor forma de evitar que ocorram reações alérgicas em indivíduos sensíveis, sendo a rotulagem um componente indispensável para a identificação dos alergénios presentes nos alimentos. Dentro dos métodos utilizados para a deteção de alergénios está a Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase em tempo real (PCR em tempo real), que é capaz de identificar o gene que codifica a proteína alergénica. Este método possui elevada sensibilidade e especificidade, sendo atualmente utilizado na área alimentar para a deteção de organismos genéticamente modificados e alergénios. Devido a uma grande procura de clientes e consumidores, para identificação de alergénios em alimentos, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi implementar e validar, a partir de análises de sensibilidade, precisão e robustez, o método de PCR em tempo real. Dessa forma, foi testada a deteção qualitativa de oito alergénios em alimentos, sendo estes o aipo, amendoim, avelã, caju, noz, pistáchio, sésamo e soja, no Laboratório da SGS - Société Générale de Surveillance. Destes alergénios, foi possível a validação de sete, demonstrando que o método de PCR em tempo real, para os presentes alergénios, possui elevada precisão e sensibilidade nos resultados obtidos.

Vivências do Quotidiano do Hospital Real de Todos-os-Santos (Lisboa) : os contextos do poço SE do claustro NE

As intervenções arqueológicas concretizadas entre 1999-2001 permitiram o reconhecimento de contextos referentes ao Hospital Real de Todos-os-Santos, nomeadamente o claustro NE, bem como uma estrutura hidráulica no seu perímetro interno. A identificação do espólio cerâmico e vítreo aqui descartado permite, numa primeira fase, a aferição cronológica e tipológica destes e, consequentemente, do perfil funcional (utilitário, de cozinha e medicinal), numa tentativa de padronização do conjunto arte factual no edifício hospitalar e na cidade de Lisboa. Num segundo estágio, pretendese obter uma leitura concreta no que concerne ao período de utilização desta estrutura, indo de encontro às distintas áreas a vigorar no espaço claustral.

Valuing an offshore exploration project through real options analysis

This thesis applied real options analysis to the valuation of an offshore oil exploration project, taking into consideration the several options typically faced by the management team of these projects. The real options process is developed under technical and price uncertainties, where it is considered that the mean reversion stochastic process is more adequate to describe the movement of oil price throught time. The valuation is realized to two case scenarios, being the first a simplified approach to develop the intuition of the used concepts, and the later a more complete cases that is resolved using both the binomial and trinomial processes to describe oil price movement. Real options methodology demonstrated to be capable of assessing and valuing the projects options, and of overcoming common capital budgeting methodologies flexibility limitation. The added value of the application of real options is evident, but so is the method's increased complexity, which adversely influence its widespread implementation.

Língua escrita e língua real: o que um corpus oral permite descobrir

Esta comunicação, baseando-se num extenso corpus oral que está a ser recolhido, procurará refletir de que modo a língua realizada oralmente nos permite perceber o que realmente são e como funcionam as línguas para além da dimensão formalizada da escrita. Pretende-se demonstrar que é a linguagem em uso que melhor evidencia muitos aspetos impossíveis de perceber por uma designada do sistema. Assim, procurar-se-á verificar até que ponto a verdadeira realização linguística da oralidade respeita a noção de frase e de norma, bem assim como especificamente realiza várias dimensões lexicais e pragmáticas.

Seismic vulnerability of vernacular buildings in urban centres: the case of Vila Real de Santo António

Following detailed studies of Portuguese vernacular building typologies, this paper deals with buildings located in historical urban centres. An analysis of the history of the urban centre and, in particular, of some vernacular buildings is enhanced. Additionally, a discussion on the influence of changes of the geometry, and on added built volumes to original buildings in the seismic vulnerability of the buildings is also provided.

Wi-Fi fingerprinting in the real world – RTLS@UM at the EvAAL competition

Research and development around indoor positioning and navigation is capturing the attention of an increasing number of research groups and labs around the world. Among the several techniques being proposed for indoor positioning, solutions based on Wi-Fi fingerprinting are the most popular since they exploit existing WLAN infrastructures to support software-only positioning, tracking and navigation applications. Despite the enormous research efforts in this domain, and despite the existence of some commercial products based on Wi-Fi fingerprinting, it is still difficult to compare the performance, in the real world, of the several existing solutions. The EvAAL competition, hosted by the IPIN 2015 conference, contributed to fill this gap. This paper describes the experience of the RTLS@UM team in participating in track 3 of that competition.