Agricultural commodity markets : reference point for the real value of a currency

Using monthly time-series data 1999-2013, the paper shows that markets for agricultural commodities provide a yardstick for real purchasing power, and thus a reference point for the real value of fiat currencies. The daily need for each adult to consume about 2800 food calories is universal; data from FAO food balance sheets confirm that the world basket of food consumed daily is non-volatile in comparison to the volatility of currency exchange rates, and so the replacement cost of food consumed provides a consistent indicator of economic value. Food commodities are storable for short periods, but ultimately perishable, and this exerts continual pressure for markets to clear in the short term; moreover, food calories can be obtained from a very large range of foodstuffs, and so most households are able to use arbitrage to select a near optimal weighting of quantities purchased. The paper proposes an original method to enable a standard of value to be established, definable in physical units on the basis of actual worldwide consumption of food goods, with an illustration of the method.

Predicting early data revisions to US GDP and the effects of releases on equity markets

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting early revisions to US GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently anticipate the first-revised estimate of GDP, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the second-revised estimate. We consider the implications of these findings for analyses of the impact of surprises in GDP revision announcements on equity markets, and for analyses of the impact of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns.

Macroeconomic announcements, price discovery, and order flow efects in the stock market: evidence from incomplete data and multiple financial markets

This paper investigates heterogeneity in the market assessment of public macro- economic announcements by exploring (jointly) two main mechanisms through which macroeconomic news might enter stock prices: instantaneous fundamental news im- pacts consistent with the asset pricing view of symmetric information, and permanent order ow e¤ects consistent with a microstructure view of asymmetric information related to heterogeneous interpretation of public news. Theoretical motivation and empirical evidence for the operation of both mechanisms are presented. Signi cant in- stantaneous news impacts are detected for news related to real activity (including em- ployment), investment, in ation, and monetary policy; however, signi cant order ow e¤ects are also observed on employment announcement days. A multi-market analysis suggests that these asymmetric information e¤ects come from uncertainty about long term interest rates due to heterogeneous assessments of future Fed responses to em- ployment shocks.

Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

Practical methods of tracking of nonstationary time series applied to real-world data

In this paper, we discuss some practical implications for implementing adaptable network algorithms applied to non-stationary time series problems. Two real world data sets, containing electricity load demands and foreign exchange market prices, are used to test several different methods, ranging from linear models with fixed parameters, to non-linear models which adapt both parameters and model order on-line. Training with the extended Kalman filter, we demonstrate that the dynamic model-order increment procedure of the resource allocating RBF network (RAN) is highly sensitive to the parameters of the novelty criterion. We investigate the use of system noise for increasing the plasticity of the Kalman filter training algorithm, and discuss the consequences for on-line model order selection. The results of our experiments show that there are advantages to be gained in tracking real world non-stationary data through the use of more complex adaptive models.

Combined production of sugar, ethanol and electricity: Thermoeconomic and environmental analysis and optimization

Many works have shown the potential of the Brazilian sugarcane industry as an electricity supplier. However, few studies have studied how this potential could be achieved without jeopardizing the production of sugar and ethanol. Also, the impact of modifications in the cogeneration plant on the costs of production of sugar and ethanol has not been evaluated. This paper presents an approach to the problem of exergy optimization of cogeneration systems in sugarcane mills. A general model to the sugar and ethanol production processes is developed based on data supplied by a real plant, and an exergy analysis is performed. A discussion is made about the variables that most affect the performance of the processes. Then, a procedure is presented to evaluate modifications in the cogeneration system and in the process, and their impact on the production costs of sugar, ethanol and electricity. Furthermore, a discussion on the renewability of processes is made based on an exergy index of renewability. As a general conclusion, besides adding a new revenue to the mill, the generation of excess electricity improves the exergo-environmental performance of the mill as a whole. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Real-time 3D interactive segmentation of echocardiographic data through user-based deformation of B-spline explicit active surfaces

Image segmentation is an ubiquitous task in medical image analysis, which is required to estimate morphological or functional properties of given anatomical targets. While automatic processing is highly desirable, image segmentation remains to date a supervised process in daily clinical practice. Indeed, challenging data often requires user interaction to capture the required level of anatomical detail. To optimize the analysis of 3D images, the user should be able to efficiently interact with the result of any segmentation algorithm to correct any possible disagreement. Building on a previously developed real-time 3D segmentation algorithm, we propose in the present work an extension towards an interactive application where user information can be used online to steer the segmentation result. This enables a synergistic collaboration between the operator and the underlying segmentation algorithm, thus contributing to higher segmentation accuracy, while keeping total analysis time competitive. To this end, we formalize the user interaction paradigm using a geometrical approach, where the user input is mapped to a non-cartesian space while this information is used to drive the boundary towards the position provided by the user. Additionally, we propose a shape regularization term which improves the interaction with the segmented surface, thereby making the interactive segmentation process less cumbersome. The resulting algorithm offers competitive performance both in terms of segmentation accuracy, as well as in terms of total analysis time. This contributes to a more efficient use of the existing segmentation tools in daily clinical practice. Furthermore, it compares favorably to state-of-the-art interactive segmentation software based on a 3D livewire-based algorithm.

Data mining techniques to support the classification of MV electricity customers

This paper describes a methodology that was developed for the classification of Medium Voltage (MV) electricity customers. Starting from a sample of data bases, resulting from a monitoring campaign, Data Mining (DM) techniques are used in order to discover a set of a MV consumer typical load profile and, therefore, to extract knowledge regarding to the electric energy consumption patterns. In first stage, it was applied several hierarchical clustering algorithms and compared the clustering performance among them using adequacy measures. In second stage, a classification model was developed in order to allow classifying new consumers in one of the obtained clusters that had resulted from the previously process. Finally, the interpretation of the discovered knowledge are presented and discussed.

A data-mining based methodology for wind forecasting

In many countries the use of renewable energy is increasing due to the introduction of new energy and environmental policies. Thus, the focus on the efficient integration of renewable energy into electric power systems is becoming extremely important. Several European countries have already achieved high penetration of wind based electricity generation and are gradually evolving towards intensive use of this generation technology. The introduction of wind based generation in power systems poses new challenges for the power system operators. This is mainly due to the variability and uncertainty in weather conditions and, consequently, in the wind based generation. In order to deal with this uncertainty and to improve the power system efficiency, adequate wind forecasting tools must be used. This paper proposes a data-mining-based methodology for very short-term wind forecasting, which is suitable to deal with large real databases. The paper includes a case study based on a real database regarding the last three years of wind speed, and results for wind speed forecasting at 5 minutes intervals.

ANN based day-ahead ancillary services forecast for electricity market simulation

Adequate decision support tools are required by electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services (AS) represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. Based on the ancillary services forecasting, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead ancillary services markets. For this reason, ancillary services market simulation is being included in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator that can be used by market players to test and enhance their bidding strategies. The paper presents the methodology used to undertake ancillary services forecasting, based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach. ANNs are used to day-ahead prediction of non-spinning reserve (NS), regulation-up (RU), and regulation down (RD). Spinning reserve (SR) is mentioned as past work for comparative analysis. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

Mode-Controlled Data-Flow Modeling of Real-Time Memory Controllers

Accepted in 13th IEEE Symposium on Embedded Systems for Real-Time Multimedia (ESTIMedia 2015), Amsterdam, Netherlands.

A framework for using real data with distributed low cost sensors

Currently, due to the widespread use of computers and the internet, students are trading libraries for the World Wide Web and laboratories with simulation programs. In most courses, simulators are made available to students and can be used to proof theoretical results or to test a developing hardware/product. Although this is an interesting solution: low cost, easy and fast way to perform some courses work, it has indeed major disadvantages. As everything is currently being done with/in a computer, the students are loosing the “feel” of the real values of the magnitudes. For instance in engineering studies, and mainly in the first years, students need to learn electronics, algorithmic, mathematics and physics. All of these areas can use numerical analysis software, simulation software or spreadsheets and in the majority of the cases data used is either simulated or random numbers, but real data could be used instead. For example, if a course uses numerical analysis software and needs a dataset, the students can learn to manipulate arrays. Also, when using the spreadsheets to build graphics, instead of using a random table, students could use a real dataset based, for instance, in the room temperature and its variation across the day. In this work we present a framework which uses a simple interface allowing it to be used by different courses where the computers are the teaching/learning process in order to give a more realistic feeling to students by using real data. A framework is proposed based on a set of low cost sensors for different physical magnitudes, e.g. temperature, light, wind speed, which are connected to a central server, that the students have access with an Ethernet protocol or are connected directly to the student computer/laptop. These sensors use the communication ports available such as: serial ports, parallel ports, Ethernet or Universal Serial Bus (USB). Since a central server is used, the students are encouraged to use sensor values results in their different courses and consequently in different types of software such as: numerical analysis tools, spreadsheets or simply inside any programming language when a dataset is needed. In order to do this, small pieces of hardware were developed containing at least one sensor using different types of computer communication. As long as the sensors are attached in a server connected to the internet, these tools can also be shared between different schools. This allows sensors that aren't available in a determined school to be used by getting the values from other places that are sharing them. Another remark is that students in the more advanced years and (theoretically) more know how, can use the courses that have some affinities with electronic development to build new sensor pieces and expand the framework further. The final solution provided is very interesting, low cost, simple to develop, allowing flexibility of resources by using the same materials in several courses bringing real world data into the students computer works.

IPTV data reduction strategy to measure real users’ behaviours

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática