Sequential female assessment drives complex sexual selection on bower shape in a cichlid fish

In many animals, sexual selection on male traits results from female mate choice decisions made during a sequence of courtship behaviors. We use a bower-building cichlid fish, Nyassachromis cf. microcephalus, to show how applying standard selection analysis to data on sequential female assessment provides new insights into sexual selection by mate choice. We first show that the cumulative selection differentials confirm previous results suggesting female choice favors males holding large volcano-shaped sand bowers. The sequential assessment analysis reveals these cumulative differentials are the result of selection acting on different bower dimensions during the courtship sequence; females choose to follow males courting from tall bowers, but choose to engage in premating circling with males holding bowers with large diameter platforms. The approach we present extends standard selection analysis by partitioning the variances of increasingly accurate estimates of male reproductive fitness and is applicable to systems in which sequential female assessment drives sexual selection on male traits.

Locational and Temporal Risk Associated With Campus Sexual Assault

The present study investigates the rates of victimization of sexual assault reported by undergraduates at Bucknell University. Specifically, the study aimed to determine where and when sexual assault took place, in order to pinpoint both temporal risks and locational risks associated with certain events on campus. Results of the survey were analyzed for victimization rates across class year, time of year, where victimization took place, as well as where victims and perpetrators met. Data for the study was gathered by means of anonymous survey, sent out to 1752 randomly selected undergraduates via email. Participants filled out the survey which asked if they had ever been sexually assaulted or committed a sexual assault during their past year studying at Bucknell. The results of the survey indicated that dormitories, fraternity houses, and off-campus student houses displayed significantly higher rates of victimization than other locations. In addition, increased risk of unwanted sexual contact in the fall semester was shown to be statistically significant. Moreover, results of the current study support that parties were statistically significant locations for meeting perpetrators of sexual assault. The results suggest that it may be beneficial to direct special attention towards campus sexual assault, specifically to certain locations, times of the year, and campus activities.

Review of assessment, design, and mitigation of multiple hazards

Large parts of the world are subjected to one or more natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, tropical storms (hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons), costal inundation and flooding. Virtually the entire world is at risk of man-made hazards. In recent decades, rapid population growth and economic development in hazard-prone areas have greatly increased the potential of multiple hazards to cause damage and destruction of buildings, bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure; thus posing a grave danger to the community and disruption of economic and societal activities. Although an individual hazard is significant in many parts of the United States (U.S.), in certain areas more than one hazard may pose a threat to the constructed environment. In such areas, structural design and construction practices should address multiple hazards in an integrated manner to achieve structural performance that is consistent with owner expectations and general societal objectives. The growing interest and importance of multiple-hazard engineering has been recognized recently. This has spurred the evolution of multiple-hazard risk-assessment frameworks and development of design approaches which have paved way for future research towards sustainable construction of new and improved structures and retrofitting of the existing structures. This report provides a review of literature and the current state of practice for assessment, design and mitigation of the impact of multiple hazards on structural infrastructure. It also presents an overview of future research needs related to multiple-hazard performance of constructed facilities.

Multicentre validation of the Geneva Risk Score for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism. Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE).

There is a need to validate risk assessment tools for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We investigated whether a predefined cut-off of the Geneva Risk Score, as compared to the Padua Prediction Score, accurately distinguishes low-risk from high-risk patients regardless of the use of thromboprophylaxis. In the multicentre, prospective Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE) cohort study, 1,478 hospitalised medical patients were enrolled of whom 637 (43%) did not receive thromboprophylaxis. The primary endpoint was symptomatic VTE or VTE-related death at 90 days. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01277536. According to the Geneva Risk Score, the cumulative rate of the primary endpoint was 3.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-4.6%) in 962 high-risk vs 0.6% (95% CI 0.2-1.9%) in 516 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.5% vs 0.8% (p=0.029), respectively. In comparison, the Padua Prediction Score yielded a cumulative rate of the primary endpoint of 3.5% (95% CI 2.3-5.3%) in 714 high-risk vs 1.1% (95% CI 0.6-2.3%) in 764 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.2% vs 1.5% (p=0.130), respectively. Negative likelihood ratio was 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.83) for the Geneva Risk Score and 0.51 (95% CI 0.28-0.93) for the Padua Prediction Score. In conclusion, among hospitalised medical patients, the Geneva Risk Score predicted VTE and VTE-related mortality and compared favourably with the Padua Prediction Score, particularly for its accuracy to identify low-risk patients who do not require thromboprophylaxis.

Childhood sexual victimization: Risk factor for drug use and sexual risk behaviors

The purpose of this dissertation was to survey men in the Harris County Jail (HCJ) to establish a more valid estimate of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) prevalence in a jailed-based population; to assess whether inmates with a history of CSA were at greater risk for use of drugs and alcohol and engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors than those without histories of childhood sexual abuse. ^ The first study determined the prevalence of childhood sexual abuse among incarcerated males in a county jail. In this study, sixty-three percent of the subjects reported having been sexually abused. Sixty-one percent reported abuse pre-puberty and 10% reported abuse post puberty. In pre-puberty abuse the initiation of first abuse occurred at a mean age of 5.6 years (SD 5.096, range: 2–13 years). ^ The second study explored the association between inmates with histories of CSA as a risk factor for sexual risk behaviors. A history of sexual abuse did not appear to be associated with an elevated risk of sexual risk behaviors. ^ The third study explored a history of drug use and a history of CSA among the inmates. A chi-square test showed that the inmates who reported a history of CSA, was significantly greater for the following drugs: Marijuana (02), Crack (03), Heroin/Morphine (.03), Amphetamines/Speed (01), Downers/Barbiturates (.001), Methamphetamine/Crystal Meth (.001), Valium .02), LSD/Acid (.001), and Inhalants (.001), p < .05). Significance was not found in alcohol, tobacco, cocaine, Quaaludes and methadone. ^ The research from this study provides empirical data supporting previous research. The current data shows that incarcerated inmates have a high prevalence of childhood sexual abuse and drug use. Sexual victimization as a child does not appear to be associated with an elevated risk of unsafe sexual behaviors. However, men who used drugs were twice as likely to have engaged in unprotected sex with casual and regular partners, and rarely used condoms with paid sex. Although our study methods do not permit a causal explanation for this association, we believe it is of concern. Finally, data in this study shows that sexually abused children are likely candidates for adult criminal behavior. ^

High-risk drug use and sexual behaviors among out-of-treatment drug users: An aging and life course perspective

High-risk injection drug use and the sexual behaviors that accompany it have large social and financial costs. Tailored treatments have been shown to successfully reduce high-risk behaviors. However, little is known about how age and age at first drug use are related to high-risk injection or sex behaviors. The current study draws on life course theory and hypothesizes that age will have a strong relationship with high-risk behaviors of out-of-treatment drug users. Data from the NIDA Cooperative Agreement was used to analyze the relationship between (1) age, and (2) age at first drug use with seven high-risk injection and sexual behavior variables. Negative binomial regression models revealed that high-risk sexual behavior decreases between 15.8 and 20.9% with each decade of age, while high-risk injection behavior increases between 32 and 67% with each decade of age after the addition of demographic controls. Both high-risk injection and high-risk sex behaviors are significantly reduced with a delayed age at first drug use. Previous research promotes interventions to reduce the high-risk sexual behaviors of older drug users. The current study suggests a refocusing of public health efforts on the high-risk injection habits of older drug users.^

Intermediate hosts of Toxoplasma gondii and food safety:epidemiology, genetics and parasite survival in meat-producing animals in Italy

Toxoplasma gondii is a coccidian parasite with a global distribution. The definitive host is the cat (and other felids). All warm-blooded animals can act as intermediate hosts, including humans. Sexual reproduction (gametogony) takes place in the final host and oocysts are released in the environment, where they then sporulate to become infective. In intermediate hosts the cycle is extra-intestinal and results in the formation of tachyzoites and bradyzoites. Tachyzoites represent the invasive and proliferative stage and on entering a cell it multiplies asexually by endodyogeny. Bradyzoites within tissue cysts are the latent form. T. gondii is a food-borne parasite causing toxoplasmosis, which can occur in both animals and humans. Infection in humans is asymptomatic in more than 80% of cases in Europe and North-America. In the remaining cases patients present fever, cervical lymphadenopathy and other non-specific clinical signs. Nevertheless, toxoplasmosis is life threatening if it occurs in immunocompromised subjects. The main organs involved are brain (toxoplasmic encephalitis), heart (myocarditis), lungs (pulmonary toxoplasmosis), eyes, pancreas and parasite can be isolated from these tissues. Another aspect is congenital toxoplasmosis that may occur in pregnant women and the severity of the consequences depends on the stage of pregnancy when maternal infection occurs. Acute toxoplasmosis in developing foetuses may result in blindness, deformation, mental retardation or even death. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), in recent reports on zoonoses, highlighted that an increasing numbers of animals resulted infected with T. gondii in EU (reported by the European Member States for pigs, sheep, goats, hunted wild boar and hunted deer, in 2011 and 2012). In addition, high prevalence values have been detected in cats, cattle and dogs, as well as several other animal species, indicating the wide distribution of the parasite among different animal and wildlife species. The main route of transmission is consumption of food and water contaminated with sporulated oocysts. However, infection through the ingestion of meat contaminated with tissue cysts is frequent. Finally, although less frequent, other food products contaminated with tachyzoites such as milk, may also pose a risk. The importance of this parasite as a risk for human health was recently highlighted by EFSA’s opinion on modernization of meat inspection, where Toxoplasma gondii was identified as a relevant hazard to be addressed in revised meat inspection systems for pigs, sheep, goats, farmed wild boar and farmed deer (Call for proposals -GP/EFSA/BIOHAZ/2013/01). The risk of infection is more highly associated to animals reared outside, also in free-range or organic farms, where biohazard measure are less strict than in large scale, industrial farms. Here, animals are kept under strict biosecurity measures, including barriers, which inhibit access by cats, thus making soil contamination by oocysts nearly impossible. A growing demand by the consumer for organic products, coming from free-range livestock, in respect of animal-welfare, and the desire for the best quality of derived products, have all led to an increase in the farming of free-range animals. The risk of Toxoplasma gondii infection increases when animals have access to environment and the absence of data in Italy, together with need for in depth study of both the prevalence and genotypes of Toxoplasma gondii present in our country were the main reasons for the development of this thesis project. A total of 152 animals have been analyzed, including 21 free-range pigs (Suino Nero race), 24 transhumant Cornigliese sheep, 77 free-range chickens and 21 wild animals. Serology (on meat juice) and identification of T. gondii DNA through PCR was performed on all samples, except for wild animals (no serology). An in-vitro test was also applied with the aim to find an alternative and valid method to bioassay, actually the gold standard. Meat samples were digested and seeded onto Vero cells, checked every day and a RT-PCR protocol was used to determine an eventual increase in the amount of DNA, demonstrating the viability of the parasite. Several samples were alos genetically characterized using a PCR-RFLP protocol to define the major genotypes diffused in the geographical area studied. Within the context of a project promoted by Istituto Zooprofilattico of Pavia and Brescia (Italy), experimentally infected pigs were also analyzed. One of the aims was to verify if the production process of cured “Prosciutto di Parma” is able to kill the parasite. Our contribution included the digestion and seeding of homogenates on Vero cells and applying the Elisa test on meat juice. This thesis project has highlighted widespread diffusion of T. gondii in the geographical area taken into account. Pigs, sheep, chickens and wild animals showed high prevalence of infection. The data obtained with serology were 95.2%, 70.8%, 36.4%, respectively, indicating the spread of the parasite among numerous animal species. For wild animals, the average value of parasite infection determined through PCR was 44.8%. Meat juice serology appears to be a very useful, rapid and sensitive method for screening carcasses at slaughterhouse and for marketing “Toxo-free” meat. The results obtained on fresh pork meat (derived from experimentally infected pigs) before (on serum) and after (on meat juice) slaughter showed a good concordance. The free-range farming put in evidence a marked risk for meat-producing animals and as a consequence also for the consumer. Genotyping revealed the diffusion of Type-II and in a lower percentage of Type-III. In pigs is predominant the Type-II profile, while in wildlife is more diffused a Type-III and mixed profiles (mainly Type-II/III). The mixed genotypes (Type-II/III) could be explained by the presence of mixed infections. Free-range farming and the contact with wildlife could facilitate the spread of the parasite and the generation of new and atypical strains, with unknown consequences on human health. The curing process employed in this study appears to produce hams that do not pose a serious concern to human health and therefore could be marketed and consumed without significant health risk. Little is known about the diffusion and genotypes of T. gondii in wild animals; further studies on the way in which new and mixed genotypes may be introduced into the domestic cycle should be very interesting, also with the use of NGS techniques, more rapid and sensitive than PCR-RFLP. Furthermore wildlife can become a valuable indicator of environmental contamination with T. gondii oocysts. Other future perspectives regarding pigs include the expansion of the number of free-range animals and farms and for Cornigliese sheep the evaluation of other food products as raw milk and cheeses. It should be interesting to proceed with the validation of an ELISA test for infection in chickens, using both serum and meat juice on a larger number of animals and the same should be done also for wildlife (at the moment no ELISA tests are available and MAT is the reference method for them). Results related to Parma ham do not suggest a concerning risk for consumers. However, further studies are needed to complete the risk assessment and the analysis of other products cured using technological processes other than those investigated in the present study. For example, it could be interesting to analyze products such as salami, produced with pig meat all over the Italian country, with very different recipes, also in domestic and rural contexts, characterized by a very short period of curing (1 to 6 months). Toxoplasma gondii is one of the most diffuse food-borne parasites globally. Public health safety, improved animal production and protection of endangered livestock species are all important goals of research into reliable diagnostic tools for this infection. Future studies into the epidemiology, parasite survival and genotypes of T. gondii in meat producing animals should continue to be a research priority.

Concepts and methods of quantitative assessment of risk to groundwater resources

This work presents a two-dimensional approach of risk assessment method based on the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby synthetic contaminant source terms were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring pollution events or a priori potential probability distribution. The spatial and temporal distributions of the generated contaminant concentrations at pre-defined monitoring points within the aquifer were then simulated from repeated realisations using integrated mathematical models. The number of times when user defined ranges of concentration magnitudes were exceeded is quantified as risk. The utilities of the method were demonstrated using hypothetical scenarios, and the risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated. The results are presented in the form of charts and spatial maps. The generated risk maps show the risk of pollution at each observation borehole, as well as the trends within the study area. This capability to generate synthetic pollution events from numerous potential sources of pollution based on historical frequency of their occurrence proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary methods.

Maltreatment, Psychiatric Symptoms and Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Sexual Transmitted Infection Risk Behavior Among Youth with Alcohol and Other Drug Use Problems: A Person-Centered Analysis

Multi-problem youth undergoing treatment for substance use problems are at high behavioral risk for exposure to sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Specific risk factors include childhood adversities such as maltreatment experiences and subsequent forms of psychopathology. The current study used a person-centered analytical approach to examine how childhood maltreatment experiences were related to patterns of psychiatric symptoms and HIV/STI risk behaviors in a sample of adolescents (N = 408) receiving treatment services. Data were collected in face-to-face interviews at two community-based facilities. Descriptive statistics and Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) were used to (a) classify adolescents into groups based on past year psychiatric symptoms, and (b) examine relations between class membership and forms of childhood maltreatment experiences, as well as past year sexual risk behavior (SRB). LPA results indicated significant heterogeneity in psychiatric symptoms among the participants. The three classes generated via the optimal LPA solution included: (a) a low psychiatric symptoms class, (b) a high alcohol symptoms class and (c) a high internalizing symptoms class. Class membership was associated significantly with adolescents’ self-reported scores for childhood sexual abuse and emotional neglect. ANOVAs documented significant differences in mean scores for multiple indices of SRB indices by class membership, demonstrating differential risk for HIV/STI exposure across classes. The two classes characterized by elevated psychiatric symptom profiles and more severe maltreatment histories were at increased behavioral risk for HIV/STI exposure, compared to the low psychiatric symptoms class. The high internalizing symptoms class reported the highest scores for most of the indices of SRB assessed. The heterogeneity of psychiatric symptom patterns documented in the current study has important implications for HIV/STI prevention programs implemented with multi-problem youth. The results highlight complex relations between childhood maltreatment experiences, psychopathology and multiple forms of health risk behavior among adolescents. The results underscore the importance of further integration between substance abuse treatment and HIV/STI risk reduction efforts to improve morbidity and mortality among vulnerable youth.

Towards a Better Modelling and Assessment of Construction Risk: Insights from a Literature Review

This paper reviews the literature of construction risk modelling and assessment. It also reviews the real practice of risk assessment. The review resulted in significant results, summarised as follows. There has been a major shift in risk perception from an estimation variance into a project attribute. Although the Probability–Impact risk model is prevailing, substantial efforts are being put to improving it reflecting the increasing complexity of construction projects. The literature lacks a comprehensive assessment approach capable of capturing risk impact on different project objectives. Obtaining a realistic project risk level demands an effective mechanism for aggregating individual risk assessments. The various assessment tools suffer from low take-up; professionals typically rely on their experience. It is concluded that a simple analytical tool that uses risk cost as a common scale and utilises professional experience could be a viable option to facilitate closing the gap between theory and practice of risk assessment.

The Use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Performing Alternatives Assessment and Comparative Risk Analysis: The Case Study of Codling Moth Pesticides

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Role of assessment components and recent adverse outcomes in risk estimation and prediction: use of the Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) in an adult secure inpatient mental health service

The Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability is a structured judgement tool used to inform risk estimation for multiple adverse outcomes. In research, risk estimates outperform the tool's strength and vulnerability scales for violence prediction. Little is known about what its’component parts contribute to the assignment of risk estimates and how those estimates fare in prediction of non-violent adverse outcomes compared with the structured components. START assessment and outcomes data from a secure mental health service (N=84) was collected. Binomial and multinomial regression analyses determined the contribution of selected elements of the START structured domain and recent adverse risk events to risk estimates and outcomes prediction for violence, self-harm/suicidality, victimisation, and self-neglect. START vulnerabilities and lifetime history of violence, predicted the violence risk estimate; self-harm and victimisation estimates were predicted only by corresponding recent adverse events. Recent adverse events uniquely predicted all corresponding outcomes, with the exception of self-neglect which was predicted by the strength scale. Only for victimisation did the risk estimate outperform prediction based on the START components and recent adverse events. In the absence of recent corresponding risk behaviour, restrictions imposed on the basis of START-informed risk estimates could be unwarranted and may be unethical.

Performance of protective factors assessment in risk prediction for adults: systematic review and meta-analysis

Protective factors are neglected in risk assessment in adult psychiatric and criminal justice populations. This review investigated the predictive efficacy of selected tools that assess protective factors. Five databases were searched using comprehensive terms for records up to June 2014, resulting in 17 studies (n = 2,198). Results were combined in a multilevel meta-analysis using the R (R Core Team, R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2015) metafor package (Viechtbauer, Journal of Statistical Software, 2010, 36, 1). Prediction of outcomes was poor relative to a reference category of violent offending, with the exception of prediction of discharge from secure units. There were no significant differences between the predictive efficacy of risk scales, protective scales, and summary judgments. Protective factor assessment may be clinically useful, but more development is required. Claims that use of these tools is therapeutically beneficial require testing.

Improving risk stratification in non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction with combined assessment of GRACE and CRUSADE risk scores

BACKGROUND: Risk assessment is fundamental in the management of acute coronary syndromes (ACS), enabling estimation of prognosis. AIMS: To evaluate whether the combined use of GRACE and CRUSADE risk stratification schemes in patients with myocardial infarction outperforms each of the scores individually in terms of mortality and haemorrhagic risk prediction. METHODS: Observational retrospective single-centre cohort study including 566 consecutive patients admitted for non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. The CRUSADE model increased GRACE discriminatory performance in predicting all-cause mortality, ascertained by Cox regression, demonstrating CRUSADE independent and additive predictive value, which was sustained throughout follow-up. The cohort was divided into four different subgroups: G1 (GRACE<141; CRUSADE<41); G2 (GRACE<141; CRUSADE≥41); G3 (GRACE≥141; CRUSADE<41); G4 (GRACE≥141; CRUSADE≥41). RESULTS: Outcomes and variables estimating clinical severity, such as admission Killip-Kimbal class and left ventricular systolic dysfunction, deteriorated progressively throughout the subgroups (G1 to G4). Survival analysis differentiated three risk strata (G1, lowest risk; G2 and G3, intermediate risk; G4, highest risk). The GRACE+CRUSADE model revealed higher prognostic performance (area under the curve [AUC] 0.76) than GRACE alone (AUC 0.70) for mortality prediction, further confirmed by the integrated discrimination improvement index. Moreover, GRACE+CRUSADE combined risk assessment seemed to be valuable in delineating bleeding risk in this setting, identifying G4 as a very high-risk subgroup (hazard ratio 3.5; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Combined risk stratification with GRACE and CRUSADE scores can improve the individual discriminatory power of GRACE and CRUSADE models in the prediction of all-cause mortality and bleeding. This combined assessment is a practical approach that is potentially advantageous in treatment decision-making.

Ciblage des délinquants sexuels : regard sur la qualité et la pertinence d'un programme de surveillance en communauté

Les crimes sexuels génèrent beaucoup d’inquiétudes chez la société, particulièrement quand vient le temps de libérer certains délinquants sexuels à risque élevé de récidive. Les évaluations du risque sont ainsi pertinentes puisque la majorité des délinquants sexuels sont libérés suivant une peine d’emprisonnement déterminée (Wilson, Picheca and Prinzo, 2005). Certaines méthodes sont donc mises en place servant à gérer les délinquants sexuels en communauté. Un cadre légal impose certaines conditions de remise en liberté et vise à réduire le risque de récidive (Hanson and Morton-Bourgon, 2005). Toutefois, une fois leur sentence complétée, certains délinquants posent toujours un risque pour la société. Pour répondre à ce problème, des partenariats ont été développés au Québec entre les services correctionnels et policiers. Ils imposent une surveillance accrue des personnes à risque élevé de récidive (PRER). Les décisions qui sont prises peuvent être lourdes de conséquences. Il est donc important d’évaluer si les méthodes de ciblage sont efficaces, soit orientées vers les individus à haut risque de récidive. Les données utilisées dans le cadre de ce mémoire proviennent de deux sources. Premièrement, un échantillon comparatif issu d’une compilation de données comprenant l’ensemble des délinquants sexuels condamnés depuis 20 ans a été utilisé (n = 235). Puis, un registre développé depuis 10 ans regroupant l’ensemble des individus soumis au programme a été analysé (n = 235). Les participants ont été évalués en fonction des variables disponibles de la Statique-99R. L’utilité de l’outil pour la police a été mise en perspective. Le programme ne semble pas n’impliquer que des délinquants sexuels à haut risque de récidive. Les taux de récidive sont relativement bas et similaires dans les deux échantillons. Les services de police ont des données pertinentes qui permettent d’étudier la qualité du ciblage fait dans le cadre du programme. Des évaluations plus fiables pourraient améliorer l’allocation des ressources et les stratégies de ciblage.