The role of ligneous vegetation for livestock nutrition in the sub-Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa: Potential effects of climate change

Climate change and variability in sub-Saharan West Africa is expected to have negative consequences for crop and livestock farming due to the strong dependence of these sectors on rainfall and natural resources, and the low adaptive capacity of crops farmers, agro-pastoralist and pastoralists in the region. The objective of this PhD research was to investigate the anticipated impacts of expected future climate change and variability on nutrition and grazing management of livestock in the prevailing extensive agro-pastoral and pastoral systems of the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of Burkina Faso. To achieve this, three studies were undertaken in selected village territories (100 km² each) in the southern Sahelian (Taffogo), northern Sudanian (Nobere, Safane) and southern Sudanian (Sokouraba) zone of the country during 2009 and 2010. The choice of two villages in the northern Sudanian zone was guided by the dichotomy between intense agricultural land use and high population density near Safane, and lower agricultural land use in the tampon zone between the village of Nobere and the National Park Kaboré Tambi of Pô. Using global positioning and geographical information systems tools, the spatio-temporal variation in the use of grazing areas by cattle, sheep and goats, and in their foraging behaviour in the four villages was assessed by monitoring three herds each per species during a one-year cycle (Chapter 2). Maximum itinerary lengths (km/d) were observed in the hot dry season (March-May); they were longer for sheep (18.8) and cattle (17.4) than for goats (10.5, p<0.05). Daily total grazing time spent on pasture ranged from 6 - 11 h with cattle staying longer on pasture than small ruminants (p<0.05). Feeding time accounted for 52% - 72% of daily time on pasture, irrespective of species. Herds spent longer time on pasture and walked farther distances in the southern Sahelian than the two Sudanian zones (p<0.01), while daily feeding time was longer in the southern Sudanian than in the other two zones (p>0.05). Proportional time spent resting decreased from the rainy (June - October) to the cool (November - February) and hot dry season (p<0.05), while in parallel the proportion of walking time increased. Feeding time of all species was to a significantly high proportion spent on wooded land (tree crown cover 5-10%, or shrub cover >10%) in the southern Sahelian zone, and on forest land (tree crown cover >10%) in the two Sudanian zones, irrespective of season. It is concluded that with the expansion of cropland in the whole region, remaining islands of wooded land, including also fields fallowed for three or more years with their considerable shrub cover, are particularly valuable pasturing areas for ruminant stock. Measures must be taken that counteract the shrinking of wooded land and forests across the whole region, including also active protection and (re)establishment of drought-tolerant fodder trees. Observation of the selection behaviour of the above herds of cattle and small ruminant as far as browse species were concerned, and interviews with 75 of Fulani livestock keepers on use of browse as feed by their ruminant stock and as remedies for animal disease treatment was undertaken (Chapter 3) in order to evaluate the consequence of climate change for the contribution of browse to livestock nutrition and animal health in the extensive grazing-based livestock systems. The results indicated that grazing cattle and small ruminants do make considerable use of browse species on pasture across the studied agro-ecological zones. Goats spent more time (p<0.01) feeding on browse species than sheep and cattle, which spent a low to moderate proportion of their feeding time on browsing in any of the study sites. As far as the agro-ecological zones were concerned, the contribution of browse species to livestock nutrition was more important in the southern Sahelian and northern Sudanian zone than the southern Sudanian zone, and this contribution is higher during the cold and hot dry season than during the rainy season. A total of 75 browse species were selected on pasture year around, whereby cattle strongly preferred Afzelia africana, Pterocarpus erinaceus and Piliostigma sp., while sheep and goats primarily fed on Balanites aegyptiaca, Ziziphus mauritiana and Acacia sp. Crude protein concentration (in DM) of pods or fruits of the most important browse species selected by goats, sheep and cattle ranged from 7% to 13% for pods, and from 10% to 18% for foliage. The concentration of digestible organic matter of preferred browse species mostly ranged from 40% to 60%, and the concentrations of total phenols, condensed tannins and acid detergent lignin were low. Linear regression analyses showed that browse preference on pasture is strongly related to its contents (% of DM) of CP, ADF, NDF and OM digestibility. Interviewed livestock keepers reported that browse species are increasingly use by their grazing animals, while for animal health care use of tree- and shrub-based remedies decreased over the last two decades. It is concluded that due to climate change with expected negative impact on the productivity of the herbaceous layer of communal pastures browse fodder will gain in importance for animal nutrition. Therefore re-establishment and dissemination of locally adapted browse species preferred by ruminants is needed to increase the nutritional situation of ruminant stock in the region and contribute to species diversity and soil fertility restoration in degraded pasture areas. In Chapter 4 a combination of household surveys and participatory research approaches was used in the four villages, and additionally in the village of Zogoré (southern Sahelian zone) and of Karangasso Vigué (northern Sudanian zone) to investigate pastoralists’ (n= 76) and agro-pastoralists’ (n= 83) perception of climate change, and their adaptation strategies in crop and livestock production at farm level. Across the three agro-ecological zones, the majority of the interviewees perceived an increase in maximum day temperatures and decrease of total annual rainfall over the last two decades. Perceptions of change in climate patterns were in line with meteorological data for increased temperatures while for total rainfall farmers’ views contrasted the rainfall records which showed a slight increase of precipitation. According to all interviewees climate change and variability have negative impacts on their crop and animal husbandry, and most of them already adopted some coping and adaptation strategies at farm level to secure their livelihoods and reduce negative impacts on their farming system. Although these strategies are valuable and can help crop and livestock farmers to cope with the recurrent droughts and climate variability, they are not effective against expected extreme climate events. Governmental and non-governmental organisations should develop effective policies and strategies at local, regional and national level to support farmers in their endeavours to cope with climate change phenomena; measures should be site-specific and take into account farmers’ experiences and strategies already in place.

Wild food trees in Eastern Nuba Mountains, Sudan: Use diversity and threatening factors

This study was conducted in 2010 in Eastern Nuba Mountains, Sudan to investigate ethnobotanical food and non-food uses of 16 wild edible fruit producing trees. Quantitative and qualitative information was collected from 105 individuals distributed in 7 villages using a semi-structured questionnaire. Also gathering of data was done using a number of rapid rural appraisal techniques, including key informant interviews, group discussion, secondary data sources and direct observations. Data was analysed using fidelity level and informant consensus factor methods to reveal the cultural importance of species and use category. Utilizations for timber products were found of most community importance than food usages, especially during cultivated food abundance. Balanites aegyptiaca, Ziziphus spina-christi and Tamarindus indica fruits were asserted as most preferable over the others and of high marketability in most of the study sites. Harvesting for timber-based utilizations in addition to agricultural expansion and overgrazing were the principal threats to wild edible food producing trees in the area. The on and off prevailing armed conflict in the area make it crucial to conserve wild food trees which usually play a more significant role in securing food supply during emergency times, especially in times of famine and wars. Increasing the awareness of population on importance of wild food trees and securing alternative income sources, other than wood products, is necessary in any rural development programme aiming at securing food and sustaining its resources in the area.

From Regression to Classification in Support Vector Machines

We study the relation between support vector machines (SVMs) for regression (SVMR) and SVM for classification (SVMC). We show that for a given SVMC solution there exists a SVMR solution which is equivalent for a certain choice of the parameters. In particular our result is that for $epsilon$ sufficiently close to one, the optimal hyperplane and threshold for the SVMC problem with regularization parameter C_c are equal to (1-epsilon)^{- 1} times the optimal hyperplane and threshold for SVMR with regularization parameter C_r = (1-epsilon)C_c. A direct consequence of this result is that SVMC can be seen as a special case of SVMR.

On the Noise Model of Support Vector Machine Regression

Support Vector Machines Regression (SVMR) is a regression technique which has been recently introduced by V. Vapnik and his collaborators (Vapnik, 1995; Vapnik, Golowich and Smola, 1996). In SVMR the goodness of fit is measured not by the usual quadratic loss function (the mean square error), but by a different loss function called Vapnik"s $epsilon$- insensitive loss function, which is similar to the "robust" loss functions introduced by Huber (Huber, 1981). The quadratic loss function is well justified under the assumption of Gaussian additive noise. However, the noise model underlying the choice of Vapnik's loss function is less clear. In this paper the use of Vapnik's loss function is shown to be equivalent to a model of additive and Gaussian noise, where the variance and mean of the Gaussian are random variables. The probability distributions for the variance and mean will be stated explicitly. While this work is presented in the framework of SVMR, it can be extended to justify non-quadratic loss functions in any Maximum Likelihood or Maximum A Posteriori approach. It applies not only to Vapnik's loss function, but to a much broader class of loss functions.

On the V(subscript gamma) Dimension for Regression in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces

This paper presents a computation of the $V_gamma$ dimension for regression in bounded subspaces of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS) for the Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression $epsilon$-insensitive loss function, and general $L_p$ loss functions. Finiteness of the RV_gamma$ dimension is shown, which also proves uniform convergence in probability for regression machines in RKHS subspaces that use the $L_epsilon$ or general $L_p$ loss functions. This paper presenta a novel proof of this result also for the case that a bias is added to the functions in the RKHS.

Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Regression analysis of compositional data when both the dependent variable and independent variable are components

It is well known that regression analyses involving compositional data need special attention because the data are not of full rank. For a regression analysis where both the dependent and independent variable are components we propose a transformation of the components emphasizing their role as dependent and independent variables. A simple linear regression can be performed on the transformed components. The regression line can be depicted in a ternary diagram facilitating the interpretation of the analysis in terms of components. An exemple with time-budgets illustrates the method and the graphical features

An alternative method for dating unknown tephras based on a segmented regression model

In CoDaWork’05, we presented an application of discriminant function analysis (DFA) to 4 different compositional datasets and modelled the first canonical variable using a segmented regression model solely based on an observation about the scatter plots. In this paper, multiple linear regressions are applied to different datasets to confirm the validity of our proposed model. In addition to dating the unknown tephras by calibration as discussed previously, another method of mapping the unknown tephras into samples of the reference set or missing samples in between consecutive reference samples is proposed. The application of these methodologies is demonstrated with both simulated and real datasets. This new proposed methodology provides an alternative, more acceptable approach for geologists as their focus is on mapping the unknown tephra with relevant eruptive events rather than estimating the age of unknown tephra. Kew words: Tephrochronology; Segmented regression

Regression periods in infancy. A case study from Catalonia.

Based on Rijt-Plooij and Plooij’s (1992) research on emergence of regression periods in the first two years of life, the presence of such periods in a group of 18 babies (10 boys and 8 girls, aged between 3 weeks and 14 months) from a Catalonian population was analyzed. The measurements were a questionnaire filled in by the infants’ mothers, a semi-structured weekly tape-recorded interview, and observations in their homes. The procedure and the instruments used in the project follow those proposed by Rijt-Plooij and Plooij. Our results confirm the existence of the regression periods in the first year of children’s life. Inter-coder agreement for trained coders was 78.2% and within-coder agreement was 90.1 %. In the discussion, the possible meaning and relevance of regression periods in order to understand development from a psychobiological and social framework is commented upon

Use of decision trees in colour feature selection: application to object recognition in outdoor scenes

A new method for the automated selection of colour features is described. The algorithm consists of two stages of processing. In the first, a complete set of colour features is calculated for every object of interest in an image. In the second stage, each object is mapped into several n-dimensional feature spaces in order to select the feature set with the smallest variables able to discriminate the remaining objects. The evaluation of the discrimination power for each concrete subset of features is performed by means of decision trees composed of linear discrimination functions. This method can provide valuable help in outdoor scene analysis where no colour space has been demonstrated as being the most suitable. Experiment results recognizing objects in outdoor scenes are reported

Use of multilevel logistic regression to identify the causes of differential item functioning

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Regression-based techniques for statistical decision making in singlecase designs

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Trees

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