Damage tolerance analysis for Blackshape BS 115 programme, EASA CS VLA & CS-23

The thesis project has been developed in partnership with the Design Department of Blackshape Spa, a carbon – fiber ultra – light airplane company in Monopoli (Bari, Italy). The main goal is the assessment of a starting point for a damage tolerant concept during the design and certification phases of the Blackshape BS 115 airplane, with respect to EASA CS VLA & CS 23 Regulations. This approach has been carried out starting from an initial literary review as far as the way of modeling composites fractures is concerned. Further on, three finite element models have been generated and implemented in order to simulate defects occurring during manufacturing and service phases. At last, the procedures of non - destructive inspections have been taken into account, in order to establish how to investigate primary structures defects and delaminations during maintenance.

Older Breast Cancer Survivors: Geriatric Assessment Domains Are Associated With Poor Tolerance of Treatment Adverse Effects and Predict Mortality Over 7 Years of Follow-Up

Purpose To evaluate geriatric assessment (GA) domains in relation to clinically important outcomes in older breast cancer survivors. Methods Six hundred sixty women diagnosed with primary breast cancer in four US geographic regions (Los Angeles, CA; Minnesota; North Carolina; and Rhode Island) were selected with disease stage I to IIIA, age ≥ 65 years at date of diagnosis, and permission from attending physician to contact. Data were collected over 7 years of follow-up from consenting patients' medical records, telephone interviews, physician questionnaires, and the National Death Index. Outcomes included self-reported treatment tolerance and all-cause mortality. Four GA domains were described by six individual measures, as follows: sociodemographic by adequate finances; clinical by Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and body mass index; function by number of physical function limitations; and psychosocial by the five-item Mental Health Index (MHI5) and Medical Outcomes Study Social Support Survey (MOS-SSS). Associations were evaluated using t tests, χ2 tests, and regression analyses. Results In multivariable regression including age and stage, three measures from two domains (clinical and psychosocial) were associated with poor treatment tolerance; these were CCI ≥ 1 (odds ratio [OR] = 2.49; 95% CI, 1.18 to 5.25), MHI5 score less than 80 (OR = 2.36; 95% CI, 1.15 to 4.86), and MOS-SSS score less than 80 (OR = 3.32; 95% CI, 1.44 to 7.66). Four measures representing all four GA domains predicted mortality; these were inadequate finances (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.89; 95% CI, 1.24 to 2.88; CCI ≥ 1 (HR = 1.38; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.88), functional limitation (HR = 1.40; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.93), and MHI5 score less than 80 (HR = 1.34; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.85). In addition, the proportion of women with these outcomes incrementally increased as the number of GA deficits increased. Conclusion This study provides longitudinal evidence that GA domains are associated with poor treatment tolerance and predict mortality at 7 years of follow-up, independent of age and stage of disease.

Older Breast Cancer Survivors: Factors Associated with Self-reported Symptoms of Persistent Lymphedema Over 7 years of Follow-up

Lymphedema of the arm is a common complication of breast cancer with symptoms that can persist over long periods of time. For older women (over 50% of breast cancer cases) it means living with the potential for long-term complications of persistent lymphedema in conjunction with the common diseases and disabilities of aging over survivorship. We identified women > or =65 years diagnosed with primary stage I-IIIA breast cancer. Data were collected over 7 years of follow-up from consenting patients' medical records and telephone interviews. Data collected included self-reported symptoms of persistent lymphedema, breast cancer characteristics, and selected sociodemographic and health-related characteristics. The overall prevalence of symptoms of persistent lymphedema was 36% over 7 years of follow-up. Having stage II or III (OR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.07-2.93) breast cancer and having a BMI >30 (OR = 3.04, 95% CI: 1.69-5.45) were statistically significantly predictive of symptoms of persistent lymphedema. Women > or =80 years were less likely to report symptoms of persistent lymphedema when compared to younger women (OR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.18-0.95). Women with symptoms of persistent lymphedema consistently reported worse general mental health and physical function. Symptoms of persistent lymphedema were common in this population of older breast cancer survivors and had a noticeable effect on both physical function and general mental health. Our findings provide evidence of the impact of symptoms of persistent lymphedema on the quality of survivorship of older women. Clinical and research efforts focused on risk factors for symptoms of persistent lymphedema in older breast cancer survivors may lead to preventative and therapeutic measures that help maintain their health and well-being over increasing periods of survivorship.

Primary tuberculosis of the TMJ: presentation of a case and literature review

Tuberculosis (TB) is a frequent health problem. The prevalence of extrapulmonary TB has increased in the last couple of years. Head and neck tuberculosis forms nearly 10% of all extrapulmonary manifestations of the disease. TB of the temporomandibular joint (TMJ) is rare; only a few cases have been reported. The clinical appearance of TB infection of the TMJ has been described as unspecific, resembling arthritis, osteomyelitis, cancer or any kind of chronic joint diseases. This article describes a 22-year-old woman with pain and left preauricular swelling. Magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography showed an expansive process with destruction of the left condyle and condylar fossa. A fine needle aspiration examination of the swelling showed non-specific granulomatous inflammation. In the following days, a preauricular fistula developed, of which a swab and biopsy specimens were taken. Histological and microbiological examinations revealed an infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The initial antituberculosis treatment consisted of a combination of four antibiotics and could be reduced to two antibiotics in the course of treatment. The treatment was completed successfully after 9 months.

Long-term stability of surgical bone regenerative procedures of peri-implantitis lesions in a prospective case-control study over 3 years

Objectives: To evaluate the extent of bone fill over 3 years following the surgical treatment of peri-implantitis with bone grafting with or without a membrane. Material and Methods: In a non-submerged wound-healing mode, 15 subjects with 27 implants were treated with a bone substitute (Algipore®) alone and 17 subjects with 29 implants were treated with the bone substitute and a resorbable membrane (Osseoquest®). Implants with radiographic bone loss ≥1.8 mm following the first year in function and with bleeding and/or pus on probing were included. Following surgery, subjects were given systemic antibiotics (10 days) and rinsed with chlorhexidine. After initial healing, the subjects were enrolled in a strict maintenance programme. Results: Statistical analysis failed to demonstrate changes in bone fill between 1 and 3 years both between and within procedure groups. The mean defect fill at 3 years was 1.3 ± (SD) 1.3 mm if treated with the bone substitute alone and 1.6 ± (SD) 1.2 mm if treated with an adjunct resorbable membrane, (p=0.40). The plaque index decreased from approximately 40–10%, remaining stable during the following 2 years. Conclusion: Defect fill using a bone substitute with or without a membrane technique in the treatment of peri-implantitis can be maintained over 3 years.

The effect of 3 versus 6 years of zoledronic acid treatment of osteoporosis: a randomized extension to the HORIZON-Pivotal Fracture Trial (PFT)

Zoledronic acid 5 mg (ZOL) annually for 3 years reduces fracture risk in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. To investigate long-term effects of ZOL on bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk, the Health Outcomes and Reduced Incidence with Zoledronic acid Once Yearly-Pivotal Fracture Trial (HORIZON-PFT) was extended to 6 years. In this international, multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled extension trial, 1233 postmenopausal women who received ZOL for 3 years in the core study were randomized to 3 additional years of ZOL (Z6, n = 616) or placebo (Z3P3, n = 617). The primary endpoint was femoral neck (FN) BMD percentage change from year 3 to 6 in the intent-to-treat (ITT) population. Secondary endpoints included other BMD sites, fractures, biochemical bone turnover markers, and safety. In years 3 to 6, FN-BMD remained constant in Z6 and dropped slightly in Z3P3 (between-treatment difference = 1.04%; 95% confidence interval 0.4 to 1.7; p = 0.0009) but remained above pretreatment levels. Other BMD sites showed similar differences. Biochemical markers remained constant in Z6 but rose slightly in Z3P3, remaining well below pretreatment levels in both. New morphometric vertebral fractures were lower in the Z6 (n = 14) versus Z3P3 (n = 30) group (odds ratio = 0.51; p = 0.035), whereas other fractures were not different. Significantly more Z6 patients had a transient increase in serum creatinine >0.5 mg/dL (0.65% versus 2.94% in Z3P3). Nonsignificant increases in Z6 of atrial fibrillation serious adverse events (2.0% versus 1.1% in Z3P3; p = 0.26) and stroke (3.1% versus 1.5% in Z3P3; p = 0.06) were seen. Postdose symptoms were similar in both groups. Reports of hypertension were significantly lower in Z6 versus Z3P3 (7.8% versus 15.1%, p < 0.001). Small differences in bone density and markers in those who continued versus those who stopped treatment suggest residual effects, and therefore, after 3 years of annual ZOL, many patients may discontinue therapy up to 3 years. However, vertebral fracture reductions suggest that those at high fracture risk, particularly vertebral fracture, may benefit by continued treatment.

Pirfenidone in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (CAPACITY): two randomised trials

Background Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive and fatal lung disease with inevitable loss of lung function. The CAPACITY programme (studies 004 and 006) was designed to confirm the results of a phase 2 study that suggested that pirfenidone, a novel antifibrotic and anti-inflammatory drug, reduces deterioration in lung function in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Methods In two concurrent trials (004 and 006), patients (aged 40–80 years) with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis were randomly assigned to oral pirfenidone or placebo for a minimum of 72 weeks in 110 centres in Australia, Europe, and North America. In study 004, patients were assigned in a 2:1:2 ratio to pirfenidone 2403 mg/day, pirfenidone 1197 mg/day, or placebo; in study 006, patients were assigned in a 1:1 ratio to pirfenidone 2403 mg/day or placebo. The randomisation code (permuted block design) was computer generated and stratified by region. All study personnel were masked to treatment group assignment until after final database lock. Treatments were administered orally, 801 mg or 399 mg three times a day. The primary endpoint was change in percentage predicted forced vital capacity (FVC) at week 72. Analysis was by intention to treat. The studies are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, numbers NCT00287729 and NCT00287716. Findings In study 004, 174 of 435 patients were assigned to pirfenidone 2403 mg/day, 87 to pirfenidone 1197 mg/day, and 174 to placebo. In study 006, 171 of 344 patients were assigned to pirfenidone 2403 mg/day, and 173 to placebo. All patients in both studies were analysed. In study 004, pirfenidone reduced decline in FVC (p=0·001). Mean FVC change at week 72 was −8·0% (SD 16·5) in the pirfenidone 2403 mg/day group and −12·4% (18·5) in the placebo group (difference 4·4%, 95% CI 0·7 to 9·1); 35 (20%) of 174 versus 60 (35%) of 174 patients, respectively, had a decline of at least 10%. A significant treatment effect was noted at all timepoints from week 24 and in an analysis over all study timepoints (p=0·0007). Mean change in percentage FVC in the pirfenidone 1197 mg/day group was intermediate to that in the pirfenidone 2403 mg/day and placebo groups. In study 006, the difference between groups in FVC change at week 72 was not significant (p=0·501). Mean change in FVC at week 72 was −9·0% (SD 19·6) in the pirfenidone group and −9·6% (19·1) in the placebo group, and the difference between groups in predicted FVC change at week 72 was not significant (0·6%, −3·5 to 4·7); however, a consistent pirfenidone effect was apparent until week 48 (p=0·005) and in an analysis of all study timepoints (p=0·007). Patients in the pirfenidone 2403 mg/day group had higher incidences of nausea (125 [36%] of 345 vs 60 [17%] of 347), dyspepsia (66 [19%] vs 26 [7%]), vomiting (47 [14%] vs 15 [4%]), anorexia (37 [11%] vs 13 [4%]), photosensitivity (42 [12%] vs 6 [2%]), rash (111 [32%] vs 40 [12%]), and dizziness (63 [18%] vs 35 [10%]) than did those in the placebo group. Fewer overall deaths (19 [6%] vs 29 [8%]) and fewer deaths related to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (12 [3%] vs 25 [7%]) occurred in the pirfenidone 2403 mg/day groups than in the placebo groups. Interpretation The data show pirfenidone has a favourable benefit risk profile and represents an appropriate treatment option for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Comparative expression profiling of E. coli and S. aureus inoculated primary mammary gland cells sampled from cows with different genetic predispositions for somatic cell score

BACKGROUND: During the past ten years many quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting mastitis incidence and mastitis related traits like somatic cell score (SCS) were identified in cattle. However, little is known about the molecular architecture of QTL affecting mastitis susceptibility and the underlying physiological mechanisms and genes causing mastitis susceptibility. Here, a genome-wide expression analysis was conducted to analyze molecular mechanisms of mastitis susceptibility that are affected by a specific QTL for SCS on Bos taurus autosome 18 (BTA18). Thereby, some first insights were sought into the genetically determined mechanisms of mammary gland epithelial cells influencing the course of infection. METHODS: Primary bovine mammary gland epithelial cells (pbMEC) were sampled from the udder parenchyma of cows selected for high and low mastitis susceptibility by applying a marker-assisted selection strategy considering QTL and molecular marker information of a confirmed QTL for SCS in the telomeric region of BTA18. The cells were cultured and subsequently inoculated with heat-inactivated mastitis pathogens Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus, respectively. After 1, 6 and 24 h, the cells were harvested and analyzed using the microarray expression chip technology to identify differences in mRNA expression profiles attributed to genetic predisposition, inoculation and cell culture. RESULTS: Comparative analysis of co-expression profiles clearly showed a faster and stronger response after pathogen challenge in pbMEC from less susceptible animals that inherited the favorable QTL allele 'Q' than in pbMEC from more susceptible animals that inherited the unfavorable QTL allele 'q'. Furthermore, the results highlighted RELB as a functional and positional candidate gene and related non-canonical Nf-kappaB signaling as a functional mechanism affected by the QTL. However, in both groups, inoculation resulted in up-regulation of genes associated with the Ingenuity pathways 'dendritic cell maturation' and 'acute phase response signaling', whereas cell culture affected biological processes involved in 'cellular development'. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that the complex expression profiling of pathogen challenged pbMEC sampled from cows inheriting alternative QTL alleles is suitable to study genetically determined molecular mechanisms of mastitis susceptibility in mammary epithelial cells in vitro and to highlight the most likely functional pathways and candidate genes underlying the QTL effect.

Multicycle dose-intensive chemotherapy for women with high-risk primary breast cancer: results of International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial 15-95

PURPOSE: To compare adjuvant dose-intensive epirubicin and cyclophosphamide chemotherapy administered with filgrastim and progenitor cell support (DI-EC) with standard-dose anthracycline-based chemotherapy (SD-CT) for patients with early-stage breast cancer and a high risk of relapse, defined as stage II disease with 10 or more positive axillary nodes; or an estrogen receptor-negative or stage III tumor with five or more positive axillary nodes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Three hundred forty-four patients were randomized after surgery to receive seven cycles of SD-CT over 22 weeks, or three cycles of DI-EC (epirubicin 200 mg/m2 plus cyclophosphamide 4 gm/m2 with filgrastim and progenitor cell support) over 6 weeks. All patients were assigned tamoxifen at the completion of chemotherapy. The primary end point was disease-free survival (DFS). RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 5.8 years (range, 3 to 8.4 years), 188 DFS events had occurred (DI-EC, 86 events; SD-CT, 102 events). The 5-year DFS was 52% for DI-EC and 43% for SD-CT, with hazard ratio of DI-EC compared with SD-CT of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.58 to 1.02; P = .07). The 5-year overall survival was 70% for DI-EC and 61% for SD-CT, with a hazard ratio of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.56 to 1.11; P = .17). There were eight cases (5%) of anthracycline-induced cardiomyopathy (two fatal) among those who received DI-EC. Women with hormone receptor-positive tumors benefited significantly from DI-EC. CONCLUSION: There was a trend in favor of DI-EC with respect to disease-free survival. A larger trial or meta-analysis will be required to reveal the true effect of dose-intensive therapy.

Impact of Helicobacter pylori eradication on dyspepsia, health resource use, and quality of life in the Bristol helicobacter project: randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of a community based Helicobacter pylori screening and eradication programme on the incidence of dyspepsia, resource use, and quality of life, including a cost consequences analysis. DESIGN: H pylori screening programme followed by randomised placebo controlled trial of eradication. SETTING: Seven general practices in southwest England. PARTICIPANTS: 10,537 unselected people aged 20-59 years were screened for H pylori infection (13C urea breath test); 1558 of the 1636 participants who tested positive were randomised to H pylori eradication treatment or placebo, and 1539 (99%) were followed up for two years. INTERVENTION: Ranitidine bismuth citrate 400 mg and clarithromycin 500 mg twice daily for two weeks or placebo. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary care consultation rates for dyspepsia (defined as epigastric pain) two years after randomisation, with secondary outcomes of dyspepsia symptoms, resource use, NHS costs, and quality of life. RESULTS: In the eradication group, 35% fewer participants consulted for dyspepsia over two years compared with the placebo group (55/787 v 78/771; odds ratio 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.94; P = 0.021; number needed to treat 30) and 29% fewer participants had regular symptoms (odds ratio 0.71, 0.56 to 0.90; P = 0.05). NHS costs were 84.70 pounds sterling (74.90 pounds sterling to 93.91 pounds sterling) greater per participant in the eradication group over two years, of which 83.40 pounds sterling (146 dollars; 121 euro) was the cost of eradication treatment. No difference in quality of life existed between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Community screening and eradication of H pylori is feasible in the general population and led to significant reductions in the number of people who consulted for dyspepsia and had symptoms two years after treatment. These benefits have to be balanced against the costs of eradication treatment, so a targeted eradication strategy in dyspeptic patients may be preferable.

Tooth loss over five years

Objectives: To assess the ability to predict tooth loss on the basis of clinical and radiographic parameters. Methods: Clinical and radiographic data from a five year prospective cohort were studied to identify cause of progressive tooth loss in older subjects. Results: 363 subjects with a baseline mean age of 67.1 years (S.D. + 4.7, range : 60-75), and 51.4% women were studied including 59.5% never smokers, and 33.0% current smokers. At baseline the subjects had, on average, 22.4 teeth (S.D. + 6.4). Self-assessed tooth loss risk was identified by 16.0 % of subjects while 34% of subjects lost teeth. Tooth loss due to caries was found in 24.7% (178 teeth), periodontitis in 15.4% (133 teeth), peri-apical lesions 5.9% (32 teeth), combined periodontal/peri-apical in 3.4% (18 teeth), and teeth irrational to treat in 7.5% (58 teeth) of the subjects. 122 of the extracted teeth (34%) should have been possible to save but were extracted. At year five severe caries, periodontitis, peri-apical lesions, periodontal/peri-apical, irrational to treat were found in 6.3%, 7.2%, 2.6%, 4.6%, and 1.2% of subjects, respectively. Signs of osteoporosis increased by 11.2 % (Klemetti index). Linear regression analysis failed to include smoking habits as being explanatory. Explanatory factors were researcher prediction of extraction needs, subject self assessment of risk and change in ostoporosis status (r2 = 0.39, ANOVA, F=22.6, p< 0.001). Conclusions: Caries and periodontitis are primary causes for extraction. Progressive osteoporosis is associated with tooth loss. Radiographs, and subjects self-assessment of risk for tooth loss are robust predictors.

Substitutions due to antiretroviral toxicity or contraindication in the first 3 years of antiretroviral therapy in a large South African cohort

INTRODUCTION: The patterns and reasons for antiretroviral therapy (ART) drug substitutions are poorly described in resource-limited settings. METHODS: Time to and reason for drug substitution were recorded in treatment-naive adults receiving ART in two primary care treatment programmes in Cape Town. The cumulative proportion of patients having therapy changed because of toxicity was described for each drug, and associations with these changes were explored in multivariate models. RESULTS: Analysis included 2,679 individuals followed for a median of 11 months. Median CD4+ T-cell count at baseline was 85 cells/microl. Mean weight was 59 kg, mean age was 32 years and 71% were women. All started non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based ART (60% on efavrienz) and 75% started on stavudine (d4T). After 3 years, 75% remained in care on-site, of whom 72% remained on their initial regimen. Substitutions due to toxicity of nevirapine (8% by 3 years), efavirenz (2%) and zidovudine (8%) occurred early. Substitutions on d4T occurred in 21% of patients by 3 years, due to symptomatic hyperlactataemia (5%), lipodystrophy (9%) or peripheral neuropathy (6%), and continued to accumulate over time. Those at greatest risk of hyperlactataemia or lipodystrophy were women on ART > or =6 months, weighing > or =75 kg at baseline. DISCUSSION: A high proportion of adult patients are able to tolerate their initial ART regimen for up to 3 years. In most instances treatment-limiting toxicities occur early, but continue to accumulate over time in patients on d4T. Whilst awaiting other treatment options, the risks of known toxicities could be minimized through early identification of patients at the highest risk.

Healthcare and patient costs of a proactive chlamydia screening programme: the Chlamydia Screening Studies project

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Most economic evaluations of chlamydia screening do not include costs incurred by patients. The objective of this study was to estimate both the health service and private costs of patients who participated in proactive chlamydia screening, using mailed home-collected specimens as part of the Chlamydia Screening Studies project. METHODS: Data were collected on the administrative costs of the screening study, laboratory time and motion studies and patient-cost questionnaire surveys were conducted. The cost for each screening invitation and for each accepted offer was estimated. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effects of variations in patient costs and the number of patients accepting the screening offer. RESULTS: The time and costs of processing urine specimens and vulvo-vaginal swabs from women using two nucleic acid amplification tests were similar. The total cost per screening invitation was 20.37 pounds (95% CI 18.94 pounds to 24.83). This included the National Health Service cost per individual screening invitation 13.55 pounds (95% CI 13.15 pounds to 14.33) and average patient costs of 6.82 pounds (95% CI 5.48 pounds to 10.22). Administrative costs accounted for 50% of the overall cost. CONCLUSIONS: The cost of proactive chlamydia screening is comparable to those of opportunistic screening. Results from this study, which is the first to collect private patient costs associated with a chlamydia screening programme, could be used to inform future policy recommendations and provide unique primary cost data for economic evaluations.

Outcome of elderly patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention for acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction

AIM: To investigate the outcome of primary percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) in elderly patients (>/=>/=75 years) with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). METHODS AND RESULTS: Between 1995 and 2003, a total of 319 consecutive patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction presenting within 6-12 hr after onset of symptoms were prospectively enrolled in a registry. Of 296 patients undergoing primary PCI, 40 patients were >/=>/=75 years old (group A) and 256 patients younger than 75 years (group B). Elderly patients presented with a lower ejection fraction (49 +/- 14% vs. 53 +/- 13%, P = 0.046) and a higher number of cardiovascular risk factors. PCI success was achieved in 80% (group A) and 91% (group B, P = 0.031), respectively with comparable door-to-balloon times (87 +/- 49 and 95 +/- 79 min, P = ns). Periprocedural complications in both groups were low and major adverse cardiac events (death, myocardial infarction, target vessel revascularization and cardiac rehospitalization) after 6 months amounted to 23% (group A) and 20% (group B, P = ns), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical outcome of elderly patients (>/=>/=75 years) with acute STEMI is favorable and comparable with the middle-aged population. However, procedural success was significantly lower in elderly (80%) compared to younger patients (90%). Acute percutaneous coronary intervention appears to be safe and not associated with higher periprocedural complications, in elderly patients.

Soft tissue profile changes following mandibular advancement and setback surgery an average of 12 years postoperatively

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to assess long-term changes in position of soft tissue landmarks following mandibular advancement and setback surgery. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty-seven patients (14 women, 13 men; mean age, 36 years) who had undergone either mandibular advancement (15 patients) or setback surgery (12 patients), were available for a long-term follow-up an average of 12 years postoperatively. In all of these cases, lateral cephalometric radiographs taken immediately before operation, at 1 week, 14 months, and 12 years postoperatively, were studied. RESULTS: During the 14 months postoperatively, soft tissue chin and mentolabial fold followed its underlying hard tissue in all patients. A continuous skeletal relapse was observable 12 years after mandibular advancement, but soft tissue chin moved more in an anterior direction. After mandibular setback, soft and hard tissue landmarks remained almost unchanged. Over the entire observation period, a thickening of soft tissue at pogonion was generally seen, and particularly a thickening of the whole chin in the setback group. All patients showed a significant lengthening and thinning of the upper lip. In all except 2 males, the patient's body weight increased markedly. CONCLUSION: In contrast to the immediate postoperative stage, soft tissue changes observed an average of 12 years after the primary operation do not directly follow the movements of the underlying skeletal structure. The soft tissue profile changes observed over such a long term seem to be influenced not only by the underlying skeletal structure but also by other factors such as weight gain and aging process.