Reward-risk efficiency in proportional reinsurance with different risk measures

We have studied, in particular under normality of the implied random variables, the connections between different measures of risk such as the standard deviation, the W-ruin probability and the p-V@R. We discuss conditions granting the equivalence of these measures with respect to risk preference relations and the equivalence of dominance and efficiency of risk-reward criteria involving these measures. Then more specifically we applied these concepts to rigorously face the problem of finding the efficient set of de Finetti’s variable quota share proportional reinsurance.

Preferências por alimentos doces e cárie dentária em pré-escolares

OBJETIVO: Avaliar as preferências pelo sabor doce e sua associação com as condições socioeconômicas e a prevalência de cárie dentária em pré-escolares. MÉTODOS: A amostra foi composta por 572 crianças de 4 a 6 anos, matriculadas em pré-escolas, dividida em estratos socioeconômicos segundo a procedência (um bairro central, um periférico e Programa de Desfavelamento). Estudo transversal, foi desenvolvido em duas etapas. A preferência pelo sabor doce foi avaliada através do Sweet Preference Inventory modificado. A concentração das soluções variou de 0 a 400 g/litro (0 a 1,17 molar). Foi utilizado o índice ceos para verificar a prevalência de cárie. RESULTADOS: Foram encontradas diferenças estatisticamente significantes entre as crianças do Programa de Desfavelamento e dos demais grupos na preferência pelo sabor doce e no consumo de açúcar, bem como associação entre a procedência e o percentual de crianças livres de cárie, sendo o grupo do Desfavelamento o menos favorecido (p<0,05). CONCLUSÃO: Os achados sustentam a hipótese de que o nível socioeconômico influencia a preferência por açúcar e esta, por sua vez, está associada à prevalência de cárie dentária na dentição decídua.

Palaeomagnetic study of a subaerial volcanic ridge (Sao Jorge Island, Azores) for the past 1.3 Myr: evidence for the Cobb Mountain Subchron, volcano flank instability and tectonomagmatic implications

We present a palaeomagnetic study on 38 lava flows and 20 dykes encompassing the past 1.3 Myr on S. Jorge Island (Azores ArchipelagoNorth Atlantic Ocean). The sections sampled in the southeastern and central/western parts of the island record reversed and normal polarities, respectively. They indicate a mean palaeomagnetic pole (81.3 degrees N, 160.7 degrees E, K= 33 and A95= 3.4 degrees) with a latitude shallower than that expected from Geocentric Axial Dipole assumption, suggesting an effect of non-dipolar components of the Earth magnetic field. Virtual Geomagnetic Poles of eight flows and two dykes closely follow the contemporaneous records of the Cobb Mountain Subchron (ODP/DSDP programs) and constrain the age transition from reversed to normal polarity at ca. 1.207 +/- 0.017 Ma. Volcano flank instabilities, probably related to dyke emplacement along an NNWSSE direction, led to southwestward tilting of the lava pile towards the sea. Two spatially and temporally distinct dyke systems have been recognized on the island. The eastern is dominated by NNWSSE trending dykes emplaced before the end of the Matuyama Chron, whereas in the central/western parts the eruptive fissures oriented WNWESE controlled the westward growth of the S. Jorge Island during the Brunhes Chron. Both directions are consistent with the present-day regional stress conditions deduced from plate kinematics and tectonomorphology and suggest the emplacement of dykes along pre-existing fractures. The distinct timing and location of each dyke system likely results from a slight shift of the magmatic source.

Exercício físico e cancro da mama: uma revisão

Introdução – Os efeitos fisiológicos da atividade física e do treino são atualmente motivo de extensa investigação cujos resultados mostraram já de forma incontroversa os seus benefícios em diferentes condições clínicas. Diferentes estudos mostraram já os efeitos benéficos do exercício regular de intensidade leve a moderada na diminuição do risco de cancro, bem como na aptidão física de indivíduos portadores de cancro, submetidos ou não a cirurgia. A prescrição do exercício mais adequado para a sua maior eficácia na melhoria da aptidão física e para a diminuição da fadiga não é, no entanto, ainda consensual. O objetivo deste estudo foi o de rever o conhecimento atual sobre os benefícios do exercício físico em sobreviventes de cancro da mama, bem como sistematizar as linhas orientadoras atuais para a prescrição do exercício físico na referida população. Metodologia – Recorreu-se a uma revisão da literatura, tendo como base as palavras-chave: cancro da mama, sobreviventes de cancro da mama, risco de cancro, exercício físico, atividade física e treino, dando preferência a estudos que, na classificação de Oxford, correspondessem aos níveis I (ensaios clínicos randomizados e revisões sistemáticas) e II de evidência científica (ensaios clínicos não randomizados). Conclusão – Embora se reconheça que o exercício físico é benéfico para a população em geral e existam linhas orientadoras para a prescrição do exercício físico em indivíduos com cancro, estas não são ainda absolutamente consensuais, necessitando sempre de individualização no treino. A investigação em torno das questões que envolvem a adequada prescrição do exercício físico em indivíduos com ou em risco de desenvolver cancro é primordial. ABSTRACT - Introduction – Physiological effects of physical activity and training are currently subject of extensive research which has already showed uncontroversial benefits in different clinical conditions. Different studies have already shown the beneficial effects of mild to moderate regular exercise in decreasing cancer risk and increasing physical fitness of individuals suffering from cancer, undergoing surgery or not. However, the appropriate exercise prescription for greater efficacy in improving physical fitness and decreasing fatigue is not yet consensus. The aim of this study was to review current knowledge about the benefits of exercise on breast cancer survivors and systematize the existing guidelines for prescribing exercise in this population. Methodology – A literature review was conducted based on the keywords: breast cancer, breast cancer survivors, cancer risk, physical exercise, physical activity and training, giving preference to studies in the classification of Oxford corresponded to level I (randomized clinical trials and systematic reviews) and II (no randomized clinical trials) scientific evidence. Conclusion – Although it is recognized that exercise is beneficial for general population and that there are guidelines for exercise prescription for individuals with cancer, there is no absolute agreement and they constantly require individual adaptations in training. Research on issues involving the correct prescription of exercise for individuals with or at risk of developing cancer is vital.

Learning business strategies for competitive electronic marketplaces

This paper presents a Multi-Agent Market simulator designed for developing new agent market strategies based on a complete understanding of buyer and seller behaviors, preference models and pricing algorithms, considering user risk preferences and game theory for scenario analysis. This tool studies negotiations based on different market mechanisms and, time and behavior dependent strategies. The results of the negotiations between agents are analyzed by data mining algorithms in order to extract rules that give agents feedback to improve their strategies. The system also includes agents that are capable of improving their performance with their own experience, by adapting to the market conditions, and capable of considering other agent reactions.

Agent-based simulation of electronic marketplaces with decision support

This paper presents a Multi-Agent Market simulator designed for analyzing agent market strategies based on a complete understanding of buyer and seller behaviors, preference models and pricing algorithms, considering user risk preferences and game theory for scenario analysis. The system includes agents that are capable of improving their performance with their own experience, by adapting to the market conditions, and capable of considering other agents reactions.

A decision-support system based on particle swarm optimization for multiperiod hedging in electricity markets

This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to support electricity producers for multiperiod optimal contract allocation. The producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the tradeoff between the expectation and variance of the return. Variance estimation and expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a price range forecasting model developed by the authors. A certain confidence level is associated to each forecasted scenario interval. The proposed model makes use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. PSO performance was evaluated by comparing it with a genetic algorithm-based approach. This model can be used by producers in deregulated electricity markets but can easily be adapted to load serving entities and retailers. Moreover, it can easily be adapted to the use of other type of contracts.

Multi-agent systems and birtual producers in electronic marketplaces

This paper presents an agent-based simulator designed for analyzing agent market strategies based on a complete understanding of buyer and seller behaviours, preference models and pricing algorithms, considering user risk preferences. The system includes agents that are capable of improving their performance with their own experience, by adapting to the market conditions. In the simulated market agents interact in several different ways and may joint together to form coalitions. In this paper we address multi-agent coalitions to analyse Distributed Generation in Electricity Markets

A long-term swarm intelligence hedging tool applied to electricity markets

This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Avaliação do ambiente térmico em piscinas cobertas

Este estudo teve como objectivo avaliar as condições do ambiente térmico em piscinas cobertas através de duas abordagens distintas. A abordagem objectiva consistiu na análise da temperatura da água e dos parâmetros de ambiente térmico. A abordagem subjectiva teve por base a aplicação de um questionário. Os resultados dos parâmetros físicos apresentaram-se elevados na maioria das situações avaliadas, nomeadamente no que respeita à temperatura da água e à humidade relativa. A análise subjectiva evidenciou percentagens de insatisfeitos inferiores à obtida na análise objectiva. Verificou-se ainda que os utilizadores das piscinas preferem ambientes considerados ligeiramente quentes ou quentes.

O conteúdo orgânico do sedimento influencia na distribuição intraespecífica de caranguejos-chama-maré

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

Ética e responsabilidade social das organizações perante os Técnicos Oficiais de Contas

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Manutenção preventiva de um edifício hospitalar

Os Hospitais, equipamentos de interesse público, são edifícios cujos desempenho e disponibilidade das suas instalações e equipamentos podem comprometer a prestação de cuidados de saúde, pelo que nestes estabelecimentos, a Manutenção Preventiva assume um papel relevante. Nesse sentido, pretendeu-se nesta dissertação definir uma estratégia específica que permita efectuar o planeamento da manutenção preventiva de um edifício hospitalar, enquanto infraestrutura para desenvolvimento da actividade clínica. Para tal, foi efectuada uma pesquisa bibliográfica, com a qual se identificaram conceitos de manutenção e requisitos a serem tidos em conta na manutenção de edifícios hospitalares. Foi efectuada uma caracterização genérica do objecto de manutenção, limitada no âmbito desta dissertação às principais componentes dos sistemas de construção e das instalações de águas e esgotos, que podem integrar um edifício hospitalar actual, atendendo às especificações e recomendações técnicas vigentes para este tipo de edifícios. Foram identificados os objectivos e requisitos de manutenção nestes edifícios, estabelecidos pelas condições de funcionamento pretendidas, pelos critérios de durabilidade exigidos pelo Dono de Obra, pelo nível de desempenho funcional requerido para as suas componentes e pelo grau de operacionalidade imposto nas suas diferentes unidades funcionais. Tendo em consideração que a criticidade de uma componente não depende só do contexto operacional da área funcional em se insere mas também das consequências que o seu estado de funcionamento pode acarretar para a unidade funcional. Foi exemplificada a análise dos modos de falha, sua criticidade e seus efeitos para hierarquização do risco associado nas componentes estudadas. As fichas exemplificativas dos planos de manutenção preventiva, que se apresentam no âmbito desta dissertação para algumas componentes básicas, integram acções e procedimentos que derivam de uma análise aos seus modos de falha e seus efeitos, bem como de recomendações técnicas exigências da regulamentação em vigor.

ISEM: a multi-agent system that simulates competitive electronic marketplaces

With the increasing importance of large commerce across the Internet it is becoming increasingly evident that in a few years the Iternet will host a large number of interacting software agents. a vast number of them will be economically motivated, and will negociate a variety of goods and services. It is therefore important to consider the economic incentives and behaviours of economic software agents, and to use all available means to anticipate their collective interactions. This papers addresses this concern by presenting a multi-agent market simulator designed for analysing agent market strategies based on a complete understanding of buyer and seller behaviours, preference models and pricing algorithms, consideting risk preferences. The system includes agents that are capable of increasing their performance with their own experience, by adapting to the market conditions. The results of the negotiations between agents are analysed by data minig algorithms in order to extract rules that give agents feedback to imprive their strategies.