884 resultados para Prediction error method


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A total of 2400 samples of commercial Brazilian C gasoline were collected over a 6-month period from different gas stations in the São Paulo state, Brazil, and analysed with respect to 12 physicochemical parameters according to regulation 309 of the Brazilian Government Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP). The percentages (v/v) of hydrocarbons (olefins, aromatics and saturated) were also determined. Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) was employed to select 150 representative samples that exhibited least similarity on the basis of their physicochemical parameters and hydrocarbon compositions. The chromatographic profiles of the selected samples were measured by gas chromatography with flame ionisation detection and analysed using soft independent modelling of class analogy (SIMCA) method in order to create a classification scheme to identify conform gasolines according to ANP 309 regulation. Following the optimisation of the SIMCA algorithm, it was possible to classify correctly 96% of the commercial gasoline samples present in the training set of 100. In order to check the quality of the model, an external group of 50 gasoline samples (the prediction set) were analysed and the developed SIMCA model classified 94% of these correctly. The developed chemometric method is recommended for screening commercial gasoline quality and detection of potential adulteration. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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As a new modeling method, support vector regression (SVR) has been regarded as the state-of-the-art technique for regression and approximation. In this study, the SVR models had been introduced and developed to predict body and carcass-related characteristics of 2 strains of broiler chicken. To evaluate the prediction ability of SVR models, we compared their performance with that of neural network (NN) models. Evaluation of the prediction accuracy of models was based on the R-2, MS error, and bias. The variables of interest as model output were BW, empty BW, carcass, breast, drumstick, thigh, and wing weight in 2 strains of Ross and Cobb chickens based on intake dietary nutrients, including ME (kcal/bird per week), CP, TSAA, and Lys, all as grams per bird per week. A data set composed of 64 measurements taken from each strain were used for this analysis, where 44 data lines were used for model training, whereas the remaining 20 lines were used to test the created models. The results of this study revealed that it is possible to satisfactorily estimate the BW and carcass parts of the broiler chickens via their dietary nutrient intake. Through statistical criteria used to evaluate the performance of the SVR and NN models, the overall results demonstrate that the discussed models can be effective for accurate prediction of the body and carcass-related characteristics investigated here. However, the SVR method achieved better accuracy and generalization than the NN method. This indicates that the new data mining technique (SVR model) can be used as an alternative modeling tool for NN models. However, further reevaluation of this algorithm in the future is suggested.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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The objective of this study was to test a device developed to improve the functionality, accuracy and precision of the original technique for sweating rate measurements proposed by Schleger and Turner [Schleger AV, Turner HG (1965) Aust J Agric Res 16:92-106]. A device was built for this purpose and tested against the original Schleger and Turner technique. Testing was performed by measuring sweating rates in an experiment involving six Mertolenga heifers subjected to four different thermal levels in a climatic chamber. The device exhibited no functional problems and the results obtained with its use were more consistent than with the Schleger and Turner technique. There was no difference in the reproducibility of the two techniques (same accuracy), but measurements performed with the new device had lower repeatability, corresponding to lower variability and, consequently, to higher precision. When utilizing this device, there is no need for physical contact between the operator and the animal to maintain the filter paper discs in position. This has important advantages: the animals stay quieter, and several animals can be evaluated simultaneously. This is a major advantage because it allows more measurements to be taken in a given period of time, increasing the precision of the observations and diminishing the error associated with temporal hiatus (e.g., the solar angle during field studies). The new device has higher functional versatility when taking measurements in large-scale studies (many animals) under field conditions. The results obtained in this study suggest that the technique using the device presented here could represent an advantageous alternative to the original technique described by Schleger and Turner.

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A parameter-free variational iterative method is proposed for scattering problems. The present method yields results that are far better, in convergence, stability and precision, than any other momentum space method. Accurate result is obtained for the atomic exponential (Yukawa) potential with an estimated error of less than 1 in 1015 (1010) after some 13 (10) iterations.

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A fourth-order numerical method for solving the Navier-Stokes equations in streamfunction/vorticity formulation on a two-dimensional non-uniform orthogonal grid has been tested on the fluid flow in a constricted symmetric channel. The family of grids is generated algebraically using a conformal transformation followed by a non-uniform stretching of the mesh cells in which the shape of the channel boundary can vary from a smooth constriction to one which one possesses a very sharp but smooth corner. The generality of the grids allows the use of long channels upstream and downstream as well as having a refined grid near the sharp corner. Derivatives in the governing equations are replaced by fourth-order central differences and the vorticity is eliminated, either before or after the discretization, to form a wide difference molecule for the streamfunction. Extra boundary conditions, necessary for wide-molecule methods, are supplied by a procedure proposed by Henshaw et al. The ensuing set of non-linear equations is solved using Newton iteration. Results have been obtained for Reynolds numbers up to 250 for three constrictions, the first being smooth, the second having a moderately sharp corner and the third with a very sharp corner. Estimates of the error incurred show that the results are very accurate and substantially better than those of the corresponding second-order method. The observed order of the method has been shown to be close to four, demonstrating that the method is genuinely fourth-order. © 1977 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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The ability of neural networks to realize some complex nonlinear function makes them attractive for system identification. This paper describes a novel barrier method using artificial neural networks to solve robust parameter estimation problems for nonlinear model with unknown-but-bounded errors and uncertainties. This problem can be represented by a typical constrained optimization problem. More specifically, a modified Hopfield network is developed and its internal parameters are computed using the valid-subspace technique. These parameters guarantee the network convergence to the equilibrium points. A solution for the robust estimation problem with unknown-but-bounded error corresponds to an equilibrium point of the network. Simulation results are presented as an illustration of the proposed approach.

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The aim of this paper is to present a photogrammetric method for determining the dimensions of flat surfaces, such as billboards, based on a single digital image. A mathematical model was adapted to generate linear equations for vertical and horizontal lines in the object space. These lines are identified and measured in the image and the rotation matrix is computed using an indirect method. The distance between the camera and the surface is measured using a lasermeter, providing the coordinates of the camera perspective center. Eccentricity of the lasermeter center related to the camera perspective center is modeled by three translations, which are computed using a calibration procedure. Some experiments were performed to test the proposed method and the achieved results are within a relative error of about 1 percent in areas and distances in the object space. This accuracy fulfills the requirements of the intended applications. © 2005 American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing.

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The present paper deals with estimation of variance components, prediction of breeding values and selection in a population of rubber tree [Hevea brasiliensis (Willd. ex Adr. de Juss.) Müell.-Arg.] from Rio Branco, State of Acre, Brazil. The REML/BLUP (restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction) procedure was applied. For this purpose, 37 rubber tree families were obtained and assessed in a randomized complete block design, with three unbalanced replications. The field trial was carried out at the Experimental Station of UNESP, located in Selvíria, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The quantitative traits evaluated were: girth (G), bark thickness (BT), number of latex vessel rings (NR), and plant height (PH). Given the unbalanced condition of the progeny test, the REML/BLUP procedure was used for estimation. The narrow-sense individual heritability estimates were 0.43 for G, 0.18 for BT, 0.01 for NR, and 0.51 for PH. Two selection strategies were adopted: one short-term (ST - selection intensity of 8.85%) and the other long-term (LT - selection intensity of 26.56%). For G, the estimated genetic gains in relation to the population average were 26.80% and 17.94%, respectively, according to the ST and LT strategies. The effective population sizes were 22.35 and 46.03, respectively. The LT and ST strategies maintained 45.80% and 28.24%, respectively, of the original genetic diversity represented in the progeny test. So, it can be inferred that this population has potential for both breeding and ex situ genetic conservation as a supplier of genetic material for advanced rubber tree breeding programs. Copyright by the Brazilian Society of Genetics.

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Piezoelectric actuators are widely used in positioning systems which demand high resolution such as scanning microscopy, fast mirror scanners, vibration cancellation, cell manipulation, etc. In this work a piezoelectric flextensional actuator (PFA), designed with the topology optimization method, is experimentally characterized by the measurement of its nanometric displacements using a Michelson interferometer. Because this detection process is non-linear, adequate techniques must be applied to obtain a linear relationship between an output electrical signal and the induced optical phase shift. Ideally, the bias phase shift in the interferometer should remain constant, but in practice it suffers from fading. The J1-J4 spectral analysis method provides a linear and direct measurement of dynamic phase shift in a no-feedback and no-phase bias optical homodyne interferometer. PFA application such as micromanipulation in biotechnology demands fast and precise movements. So, in order to operate with arbitrary control signals the PFA must have frequency bandwidth of several kHz. However as the natural frequencies of the PFA are low, unwanted dynamics of the structure are often a problem, especially for scanning motion, but also if trajectories have to be followed with high velocities, because of the tracking error phenomenon. So the PFA must be designed in such a manner that the first mechanical resonance occurs far beyond this band. Thus it is important to know all the PFA resonance frequencies. In this work the linearity and frequency response of the PFA are evaluated up to 50 kHz using optical interferometry and the J1-J4 method.

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Purpose: Selecting artificial teeth for edentulous patients is difficult when pre-extraction records are not available. Various guidelines have been suggested for determining the width of the maxillary anterior denture teeth. This study was undertaken to evaluate the use of the nasal width as a guide for the selection of proper width maxillary anterior denture teeth in four racial groups of the Brazilian population. Materials and Methods: One hundred and sixty subjects (40 Whites, 40 Mulattos, 40 Blacks, and 40 Asians) were selected. Using a sliding caliper, the nasal width and the intercanine distance were measured. The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient was used to determine the relationship between the above measurements. A prediction was made of the percentage of subjects of the White, Mulatto, Black, and Asian populations in which the selection error due to the clinical application of the method of the nasal width would be within 0 to 2 mm, within 2 to 4 mm, and greater than 4 mm. Results: The four racial groups showed a weak correlation between the intercanine distance and the nasal width. In 39.7% of the White, 55.7% of the Mulatto, 81.9% of the Black, and 48.2% of the Asian populations, errors greater than 4 mm would be present with the use of the nasal width. Conclusions: The correlation found between the intercanine distance and the nasal width was not high enough to be used as a predictive factor. The relationship between natural tooth width and artificial tooth width as predicted by the nasal width showed that the nasal width method is not accurate for all the studied groups. Copyright © 2006 by The American College of Prosthodontists.

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Several systems are currently tested in order to obtain a feasible and safe method for automation and control of grinding process. This work aims to predict the surface roughness of the parts of SAE 1020 steel ground in a surface grinding machine. Acoustic emission and electrical power signals were acquired by a commercial data acquisition system. The former from a fixed sensor placed near the workpiece and the latter from the electric induction motor that drives the grinding wheel. Both signals were digitally processed through known statistics, which with the depth of cut composed three data sets implemented to the artificial neural networks. The neural network through its mathematical logical system interpreted the signals and successful predicted the workpiece roughness. The results from the neural networks were compared to the roughness values taken from the worpieces, showing high efficiency and applicability on monitoring and controlling the grinding process. Also, a comparison among the three data sets was carried out.

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To ensure high accuracy results from GPS relative positioning, the multipath effects have to be mitigated. Although the careful selection of antenna site and the use of especial antennas and receivers can minimize multipath, it cannot always be eliminated and frequently the residual multipath disturbance remains as the major error in GPS results. The high-frequency multipath from large delays can be attenuated by double difference (DD) denoising methods. But the low-frequency multipath from short delays is very difficult to be reduced or modeled. In this paper, it is proposed a method based on wavelet regression (WR), which can effectively detect and reduce the low-frequency multipath. The wavelet technique is firstly applied to decompose the DD residuals into the low-frequency bias and high-frequency noise components. The extracted bias components by WR are then directly applied to the DD observations to correct them from the trend. The remaining terms, largely characterized by the high-frequency measurement noise, are expected to give the best linear unbiased solutions from a least-squares (LS) adjustment. An experiment was carried out using objects placed close to the receiver antenna to cause, mainly, low-frequency multipath. The data were collected for two days to verify the multipath repeatability. The ground truth coordinates were computed with data collected in the absence of the reflector objects. The coordinates and ambiguity solution were compared with and without the multipath mitigation using WR. After mitigating the multipath, ambiguity resolution became more reliable and the coordinates were more accurate.

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An analytical approach for spin stabilized attitude propagation is presented, considering the coupled effect of the aerodynamic torque and the gravity gradient torque. A spherical coordination system fixed in the satellite is used to locate the satellite spin axis in relation to the terrestrial equatorial system. The spin axis direction is specified by its right ascension and the declination angles and the equation of motion are described by these two angles and the magnitude of the spin velocity. An analytical averaging method is applied to obtain the mean torques over an orbital period. To compute the average components of both aerodynamic torque and the gravity gradient torque in the satellite body frame reference system, an average time in the fast varying orbit element, the mean anomaly, is utilized. Afterwards, the inclusion of such torques on the rotational motion differential equations of spin stabilized satellites yields conditions to derive an analytical solution. The pointing deviation evolution, that is, the deviation between the actual spin axis and the computed spin axis, is also availed. In order to validate the analytical approach, the theory developed has been applied for spin stabilized Brazilian satellite SCD1, which are quite appropriated for verification and comparison of the data generated and processed by the Satellite Control Center of the Brazil National Research Institute (INPE). Numerical simulations performed with data of Brazilian Satellite SCD1 show the period that the analytical solution can be used to the attitude propagation, within the dispersion range of the attitude determination system performance of Satellite Control Center of the Brazilian Research Institute.

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Semi-supervised learning is applied to classification problems where only a small portion of the data items is labeled. In these cases, the reliability of the labels is a crucial factor, because mislabeled items may propagate wrong labels to a large portion or even the entire data set. This paper aims to address this problem by presenting a graph-based (network-based) semi-supervised learning method, specifically designed to handle data sets with mislabeled samples. The method uses teams of walking particles, with competitive and cooperative behavior, for label propagation in the network constructed from the input data set. The proposed model is nature-inspired and it incorporates some features to make it robust to a considerable amount of mislabeled data items. Computer simulations show the performance of the method in the presence of different percentage of mislabeled data, in networks of different sizes and average node degree. Importantly, these simulations reveals the existence of the critical points of the mislabeled subset size, below which the network is free of wrong label contamination, but above which the mislabeled samples start to propagate their labels to the rest of the network. Moreover, numerical comparisons have been made among the proposed method and other representative graph-based semi-supervised learning methods using both artificial and real-world data sets. Interestingly, the proposed method has increasing better performance than the others as the percentage of mislabeled samples is getting larger. © 2012 IEEE.