953 resultados para Prediction Models for Air Pollution


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Spectral sensors are a wide class of devices that are extremely useful for detecting essential information of the environment and materials with high degree of selectivity. Recently, they have achieved high degrees of integration and low implementation cost to be suited for fast, small, and non-invasive monitoring systems. However, the useful information is hidden in spectra and it is difficult to decode. So, mathematical algorithms are needed to infer the value of the variables of interest from the acquired data. Between the different families of predictive modeling, Principal Component Analysis and the techniques stemmed from it can provide very good performances, as well as small computational and memory requirements. For these reasons, they allow the implementation of the prediction even in embedded and autonomous devices. In this thesis, I will present 4 practical applications of these algorithms to the prediction of different variables: moisture of soil, moisture of concrete, freshness of anchovies/sardines, and concentration of gasses. In all of these cases, the workflow will be the same. Initially, an acquisition campaign was performed to acquire both spectra and the variables of interest from samples. Then these data are used as input for the creation of the prediction models, to solve both classification and regression problems. From these models, an array of calibration coefficients is derived and used for the implementation of the prediction in an embedded system. The presented results will show that this workflow was successfully applied to very different scientific fields, obtaining autonomous and non-invasive devices able to predict the value of physical parameters of choice from new spectral acquisitions.

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This article deals with the scavenging processes modeling of the particulate sulfate and the gas sulfur dioxide, emphasizing the synoptic conditions at different sampling sites in order to verify the domination of the in-cloud or below-cloud scavenging processes in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (RMSP). Three sampling sites were chosen: GV (Granja Viana) at RMSP surroundings, IAG-USP and Mackenzie (RMSP center). Basing on synoptic conditions, it was chosen a group of events where the numerical modeling, a simple scavenging model, was used. These synoptic conditions were usually convective cloud storms, which are usual at RMSP. The results show that the in-cloud processes were dominant (80%) for sulfate/sulfur dioxide scavenging processes, with below-cloud process indicating around 20% of the total. Clearly convective events, with total rainfall higher than 20 mm, are better modeled than the stratiform events, with correlation coefficient of 0.92. There is also a clear association with events presenting higher rainfall amount and the ratio between modeled and observed data set with correlation coefficient of 0.63. Additionally, the suburb sampling site, GV, as expected due to the pollution source distance, presents in general smaller amount of rainwater sulfate (modeled and observed) than the center sampling site, Mackenzie, where the characterization event explains partially the rainfall concentration differences.

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Rainfall samples collected in the downtown area of São Paulo city, during 2003, exhibited average concentrations of cadmium, lead and copper of 1.33, 8.52 and 49.5 nmol L-1, respectively. Among the major ions, NH4+ was the predominant species followed by NO3-, SO4(2-) and Ca2+, with volume weighed mean (VWM) concentrations of 37.1, 20.1, 11.9 and 10.8 µmol L-1, respectively. All the determined species showed high inter-events variability, including free H+ ions whose VWM concentration was 4.03 µmol L-1, corresponding to a pH value of 5.39.

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OBJETIVO: Verificar a associação entre relato de sibilância em crianças e adolescentes e o local de residência em relação à dispersão dos poluentes atmosféricos emitidos pelo Pólo Petroquímico (PPQ) de Guamaré (RN). MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal de relato de sibilância em crianças e adolescentes de 0 a 14 anos de idade, residentes no entorno do PPQ de Guamaré, em 2006. Foi utilizado o questionário padronizado do International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood, acrescido de questões relativas ao tabagismo, renda, moradia e escolaridade. Concentrações diárias de PM10, PM2,5, carbono grafítico, SO2, NO2, O3, benzeno, tolueno e xilenos foram medidas em uma estação de monitoramento fixa. As comunidades residentes na área de influência das emissões do PPQ foram classificadas, segundo a direção preferencial dos ventos, em expostas e de referência. RESULTADOS: Participaram do estudo 209 crianças e adolescentes. As concentrações médias diárias dos poluentes monitorados mantiveram-se abaixo dos limites estabelecidos nos padrões de qualidade do ar. A prevalência de sibilos nos últimos 12 meses foi de 27,3%. Associações estatisticamente significantes com sibilos nos últimos 12 meses foram verificadas mesmo após ajustamentos para comunidades expostas [razão de chances (odds ratio, ORajust) = 2,01; intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC95%) 1,01-4,01], gênero masculino (ORajust = 2,50; IC95% 1,21-5,18) e idade de 0 a 6 anos (ORajust = 5,00; IC95% 2,41-10,39). CONCLUSÃO: Mesmo em baixas concentrações de poluentes atmosféricos, a ocorrência de sintomas respiratórios em crianças e adolescentes nas comunidades no entorno de um PPQ esteve associada a residência na direção preferencial dos ventos, mostrando-se mais vulnerável o grupo de pré-escolares do gênero masculino.

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The present work has aimed to determine the 16 US EPA priority PAH atmospheric particulate matter levels present in three sites around Salvador, Bahia: (i) Lapa bus station, strongly impacted by heavy-duty diesel vehicles; (ii) Aratu harbor, impacted by an intense movement of goods, and (iii) Bananeira village on Maré Island, a non vehicle-influenced site with activities such as handcraft work and fisheries. Results indicated that BbF (0.130-6.85 ng m-3) is the PAH with highest concentration in samples from Aratu harbor and Bananeira and CRY (0.075-6.85 ng m-3) presented higher concentrations at Lapa station. PAH sources from studied sites were mainly of anthropogenic origin such as gasoline-fueled light-duty vehicles and diesel-fueled heavy-duty vehicles, discharges in the port, diesel burning from ships, dust ressuspension, indoor soot from cooking, and coal and wood combustion for energy production.

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OBJETIVO: Estimar a prevalência de sintomas respiratórios e analisar fatores associados, bem como medidas de pico de fluxo expiratório em escolares. MÉTODOS: Estudo descritivo transversal com escolares de dez a 14 anos de Monte Aprazível, SP. Foram aplicados questionários sobre sintomas de asma e de rinite do protocolo International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood, questões sociodemográficas, fatores predisponentes e antecedentes pessoais e familiares. Foram realizadas medidas repetidas do pico de fluxo expiratório nas crianças e dos níveis de concentração de material particulado (MP2,5) e de black carbon. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de sintomas de asma foi de 11% e de 33,2% de rinite; 10,6% apresentaram mais de quatro crises de sibilos nos últimos 12 meses. Antecedentes familiares para bronquite e rinite associaram-se à presença de asma (p = 0,002 e p < 0,001) e de rinite atuais (p < 0,001 e p < 0,001, respectivamente). Para rinite, houve associação com presença de mofo ou rachadura na casa (p = 0,009). Houve maior freqüência de rinite nos meses de junho a outubro, período de safra da cana de açúcar. Prevalência diária de pico de fluxo expiratório abaixo de 20% da mediana de medidas na criança foi maior em dias com maior concentração de MP2,5. CONCLUSÕES: A prevalência de sintomas de asma está abaixo e a de rinite está acima da média nacional. Ainda que dentro dos níveis aceitáveis, a poluição nos períodos de queima da palha da cana-de-açúcar pode contribuir para a exacerbação de episódios de asma e de rinite.

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Pesquisa em Espírito Santo do Turvo (SP) analisou poluição atmosférica causada por queima de cana-de-açúcar e saúde respiratória de crianças. Realizaram-se medições de PM10, PTS e NO2, durante safra, em 2004 e 2005, em pátio de escola, e aplicou-se questionário para avaliar morbidade respiratória referida dos alunos. No município, há cultivo de cana, queimada no pré-corte e usina próxima à área urbana. Resultados dos questionários foram comparados àqueles obtidos em Juquitiba (SP) previamente. As medições de poluentes, realizadas em dias em que havia queima de cana, estiveram abaixo dos padrões de qualidade do ar. Entretanto, foram indicadas altas prevalências de sintomas e doenças respiratórias.

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Cloud-aerosol interaction is a key issue in the climate system, affecting the water cycle, the weather, and the total energy balance including the spatial and temporal distribution of latent heat release. Information on the vertical distribution of cloud droplet microphysics and thermodynamic phase as a function of temperature or height, can be correlated with details of the aerosol field to provide insight on how these particles are affecting cloud properties and their consequences to cloud lifetime, precipitation, water cycle, and general energy balance. Unfortunately, today's experimental methods still lack the observational tools that can characterize the true evolution of the cloud microphysical, spatial and temporal structure in the cloud droplet scale, and then link these characteristics to environmental factors and properties of the cloud condensation nuclei. Here we propose and demonstrate a new experimental approach (the cloud scanner instrument) that provides the microphysical information missed in current experiments and remote sensing options. Cloud scanner measurements can be performed from aircraft, ground, or satellite by scanning the side of the clouds from the base to the top, providing us with the unique opportunity of obtaining snapshots of the cloud droplet microphysical and thermodynamic states as a function of height and brightness temperature in clouds at several development stages. The brightness temperature profile of the cloud side can be directly associated with the thermodynamic phase of the droplets to provide information on the glaciation temperature as a function of different ambient conditions, aerosol concentration, and type. An aircraft prototype of the cloud scanner was built and flew in a field campaign in Brazil. The CLAIM-3D (3-Dimensional Cloud Aerosol Interaction Mission) satellite concept proposed here combines several techniques to simultaneously measure the vertical profile of cloud microphysics, thermodynamic phase, brightness temperature, and aerosol amount and type in the neighborhood of the clouds. The wide wavelength range, and the use of multi-angle polarization measurements proposed for this mission allow us to estimate the availability and characteristics of aerosol particles acting as cloud condensation nuclei, and their effects on the cloud microphysical structure. These results can provide unprecedented details on the response of cloud droplet microphysics to natural and anthropogenic aerosols in the size scale where the interaction really happens.

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In-situ measurements in convective clouds (up to the freezing level) over the Amazon basin show that smoke from deforestation fires prevents clouds from precipitating until they acquire a vertical development of at least 4 km, compared to only 1-2 km in clean clouds. The average cloud depth required for the onset of warm rain increased by similar to 350 m for each additional 100 cloud condensation nuclei per cm(3) at a super-saturation of 0.5% (CCN0.5%). In polluted clouds, the diameter of modal liquid water content grows much slower with cloud depth (at least by a factor of similar to 2), due to the large number of droplets that compete for available water and to the suppressed coalescence processes. Contrary to what other studies have suggested, we did not observe this effect to reach saturation at 3000 or more accumulation mode particles per cm(3). The CCN0.5% concentration was found to be a very good predictor for the cloud depth required for the onset of warm precipitation and other microphysical factors, leaving only a secondary role for the updraft velocities in determining the cloud drop size distributions. The effective radius of the cloud droplets (r(e)) was found to be a quite robust parameter for a given environment and cloud depth, showing only a small effect of partial droplet evaporation from the cloud's mixing with its drier environment. This supports one of the basic assumptions of satellite analysis of cloud microphysical processes: the ability to look at different cloud top heights in the same region and regard their r(e) as if they had been measured inside one well developed cloud. The dependence of r(e) on the adiabatic fraction decreased higher in the clouds, especially for cleaner conditions, and disappeared at r(e)>=similar to 10 mu m. We propose that droplet coalescence, which is at its peak when warm rain is formed in the cloud at r(e)=similar to 10 mu m, continues to be significant during the cloud's mixing with the entrained air, cancelling out the decrease in r(e) due to evaporation.

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Biomass burning is an important source of atmospheric Particulate Matter (PM) in Brazil: the burning of forests in the northwest and of sugar cane plantations in the southeast are important examples. The objective of this work is the measurement of the PM emission profile of burning of sugar cane and other characteristic vegetative burning in the region of Sao Carlos-SP/Brazil. Samples of PM(10) and PM(2.5) were collected in different conditions, including small laboratory controlled burnings and real ones. The samples were analysed by X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) and 14 chemical elements quantified. t-Student tests were performed to compare the obtained profiles, using as a reference a vegetative burn profile taken from the USEPA data bank SPECIATE. All measured profiles presented significant amounts of Cl and K, which are confirmed as tracers of sugar cane foliage burning.

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Epiphytic bromeliads have been used as biomonitors of air pollution since they have specialized structures in leaves for absorbing humidity and nutrients available in the atmosphere. Leaves of five bromeliad species were collected in the conservation unit Parque Estadual Ilha do Cardoso, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, and analyzed by INAA. Vriesea carinata was the species showing most accumulation, with the highest mass fractions of K, Na, Rb and Zn. Similar results were previously found for the same species collected in the dense ombrophilous forest. Chemical composition of bromeliads provided an indication of the atmosphere status in the conservation unit.

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Through the assessment of three decades of the Alcohol Program in Brazil, the paper shows that adequate public policies regarding biomass production can deliver direct benefits like energy security improvement, foreign exchange savings, and local employment generation, reduced urban air pollution and avoided CO(2) emissions. Moreover, the paper shows that Brazilian produced ethanol has faced economies of scale, technical progress and productivity gains and is no longer dependent on subsidies to be competitive. The paper also examines the potential in Brazil for fostering other biofuels, namely biodiesel obtained from vegetable oils, as well as their implications on sustainable energy development. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Fourier transform near infrared (FT-NIR) spectroscopy was evaluated as an analytical too[ for monitoring residual Lignin, kappa number and hexenuronic acids (HexA) content in kraft pulps of Eucalyptus globulus. Sets of pulp samples were prepared under different cooking conditions to obtain a wide range of compound concentrations that were characterised by conventional wet chemistry analytical methods. The sample group was also analysed using FT-NIR spectroscopy in order to establish prediction models for the pulp characteristics. Several models were applied to correlate chemical composition in samples with the NIR spectral data by means of PCR or PLS algorithms. Calibration curves were built by using all the spectral data or selected regions. Best calibration models for the quantification of lignin, kappa and HexA were proposed presenting R-2 values of 0.99. Calibration models were used to predict pulp titers of 20 external samples in a validation set. The lignin concentration and kappa number in the range of 1.4-18% and 8-62, respectively, were predicted fairly accurately (standard error of prediction, SEP 1.1% for lignin and 2.9 for kappa). The HexA concentration (range of 5-71 mmol kg(-1) pulp) was more difficult to predict and the SEP was 7.0 mmol kg(-1) pulp in a model of HexA quantified by an ultraviolet (UV) technique and 6.1 mmol kg(-1) pulp in a model of HexA quantified by anion-exchange chromatography (AEC). Even in wet chemical procedures used for HexA determination, there is no good agreement between methods as demonstrated by the UV and AEC methods described in the present work. NIR spectroscopy did provide a rapid estimate of HexA content in kraft pulps prepared in routine cooking experiments.

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An experimental laboratory was designed and assembled at the Botanical Institute of So Paulo, Brazil, in order to research atmosphere-plant interactions through the use of a system of fumigation chambers. A system of three ""closed"" fumigation chambers was designed to be used inside or outside the laboratory. The system was built to be used with a single pollutant or a mix of them. The innovation in this system is to allow chemical reactions inside the chambers that simulate atmospheric chemistry, especially photochemical processes involving high levels of ozone. Assessment of the performance and applicability of the system was based on the response of Nicotiana tabacum Bel W3 exposed to ozone produced alternatively by a generator and inside the chamber by reactions of its precursors. The results showed that the system can be well applied to the study of atmospheric chemistry interactions and the effects on plants.

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This study proposes a new PSOS-model based damage identification procedure using frequency domain data. The formulation of the objective function for the minimization problem is based on the Frequency Response Functions (FRFs) of the system. A novel strategy for the control of the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) parameters based on the Nelder-Mead algorithm (Simplex method) is presented; consequently, the convergence of the PSOS becomes independent of the heuristic constants and its stability and confidence are enhanced. The formulated hybrid method performs better in different benchmark functions than the Simulated Annealing (SA) and the basic PSO (PSO(b)). Two damage identification problems, taking into consideration the effects of noisy and incomplete data, were studied: first, a 10-bar truss and second, a cracked free-free beam, both modeled with finite elements. In these cases, the damage location and extent were successfully determined. Finally, a non-linear oscillator (Duffing oscillator) was identified by PSOS providing good results. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved