561 resultados para Predictability
Resumo:
In the emotion literature, appraisals of an event's pleasantness and goal conduciveness are often considered as interchangeable and subsumed under the term valence. Some appraisal theories, however, emphasize that there is a conceptual difference between these two appraisals. With the current study, we investigated whether such a conceptual difference would be reflected in different somatovisceral response profiles for intrinsic pleasantness and goal conduciveness. Participants viewed unpleasant and pleasant pictures (intrinsic pleasantness) and performed either goal conducive (i.e., decreasing the size of unpleasant pictures, increasing the size of pleasant pictures) or goal obstructive (i.e., increasing the size of unpleasant pictures, decreasing the size of pleasant pictures) arm movements. Our data suggest that the two appraisals have somewhat similar, but not identical, response patterns. Thus, our results emphasize the importance of distinguishing between intrinsic pleasantness and goal conduciveness. Moreover, we find evidence that the efferent effects of the two appraisals combine multiplicatively, and that predictability of goal conduciveness may influence the impact of goal conduciveness appraisals on somatovisceral responding.
Resumo:
Over recent years, it has repeatedly been shown that optimal gaze strategies enhance motor control (e.g., Foulsham, 2015). However, little is known, whether, vice versa, visual performance can be improved by optimized motor control. Consequently, in two studies, we investigated visual performance as a function of motor control strategies and task parameters, respectively. In Experiment 1, 72 participants were tested on visual acuity (Landolt) and contrast sensitivity (Grating), while standing in two different postures (upright vs. squat) on a ZEPTOR-platform that vibrated at four different frequencies (0, 4, 8, 12 Hz). After each test, perceived exertion (Borg) was assessed. Significant interactions were revealed for both tests, Landolt: F(3,213)=13.25, p<.01, ηp2=.16, Grating: F(3,213)=4.27, p<.01, ηp2=.06, elucidating a larger loss of acuity/contrast sensitivity with increasing frequencies for the upright compared with the squat posture. For perceived exertion, however, a diametrical interaction for frequency was found for acuity, F(3,213)=7.45, p<.01, ηp2=.09, and contrast sensitivity, F(3,213)=7.08, p < .01, ηp2=.09, substantiating that the impaired visual performance cannot be attributed to exertion. Consequently, the squat posture could permit better head and, hence, gaze stabilization. In Experiment 2, 64 participants performed the same tests while standing in a squat position on a ski-simulator, which vibrated with two different frequencies (2.4, 3.6 Hz) and amplitudes (50, 100 mm) in a predictable or unpredictable manner. Control strategies were identified by tracking segmental motion, which allows to derive damping characteristics. Considerable main effects were found for frequency, all F’s(1,52)>10.31, all p’s<.01, all ηp2’s>.16, as well as, in the acuity test, for predictability, F(1,52)=10.31, p<.01, ηp2=.17, and by tendency for amplitude, F(1,52)=3.53, p=.06, ηp2=.06. A significant correlation between the damping amplitude in the knee joint and the performance drop in visual acuity, r=-.97, p<.001, again points towards the importance of motor control strategies to maintain optimal visual performance.
Resumo:
Background: A prerequisite for high performance in motor tasks is the acquisition of egocentric sensory information that must be translated into motor actions. A phenomenon that supports this process is the Quiet Eye (QE) defined as long final fixation before movement initiation. It is assumed that the QE facilitates information processing, particularly regarding movement parameterization. Aims: The question remains whether this facilitation also holds for the information-processing stage of response selection and – related to perception crucial – stage of stimulus identification. Method: In two experiments with sport science students, performance-enhancing effects of experimentally manipulated QE durations were tested as a function of target position predictability and target visibility, thereby selectively manipulating response selection and stimulus identification demands, respectively. Results: The results support the hypothesis of facilitated information processing through long QE durations since in both experiments performance-enhancing effects of long QE durations were found under increased processing demands only. In Experiment 1, QE duration affected performance only if the target position was not predictable and positional information had to be processed over the QE period. In Experiment 2, in a full vs. no target visibility comparison with saccades to the upcoming target position induced by flicker cues, the functionality of a long QE duration depended on the visual stimulus identification period as soon as the interval falls below a certain threshold. Conclusions: The results corroborate earlier findings that QE efficiency depends on demands put on the visuomotor system, thereby furthering the assumption that the phenomenon supports the processes of sensorimotor integration.
Resumo:
Peritoneal transport characteristics and residual renal function require regular control and subsequent adjustment of the peritoneal dialysis (PD) prescription. Prescription models shall facilitate the prediction of the outcome of such adaptations for a given patient. In the present study, the prescription model implemented in the PatientOnLine software was validated in patients requiring a prescription change. This multicenter, international prospective cohort study with the aim to validate a PD prescription model included patients treated with continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis. Patients were examined with the peritoneal function test (PFT) to determine the outcome of their current prescription and the necessity for a prescription change. For these patients, a new prescription was modeled using the PatientOnLine software (Fresenius Medical Care, Bad Homburg, Germany). Two to four weeks after implementation of the new PD regimen, a second PFT was performed. The validation of the prescription model included 54 patients. Predicted and measured peritoneal Kt/V were 1.52 ± 0.31 and 1.66 ± 0.35, and total (peritoneal + renal) Kt/V values were 1.96 ± 0.48 and 2.06 ± 0.44, respectively. Predicted and measured peritoneal creatinine clearances were 42.9 ± 8.6 and 43.0 ± 8.8 L/1.73 m2/week and total creatinine clearances were 65.3 ± 26.0 and 63.3 ± 21.8 L/1.73 m2/week, respectively. The analysis revealed a Pearson's correlation coefficient for peritoneal Kt/V of 0.911 and Lin's concordance coefficient of 0.829. The value of both coefficients was 0.853 for peritoneal creatinine clearance. Predicted and measured daily net ultrafiltration was 0.77 ± 0.49 and 1.16 ± 0.63 L/24 h, respectively. Pearson's correlation and Lin's concordance coefficient were 0.518 and 0.402, respectively. Predicted and measured peritoneal glucose absorption was 125.8 ± 38.8 and 79.9 ± 30.7 g/24 h, respectively, and Pearson's correlation and Lin's concordance coefficient were 0.914 and 0.477, respectively. With good predictability of peritoneal Kt/V and creatinine clearance, the present model provides support for individual dialysis prescription in clinical practice. Peritoneal glucose absorption and ultrafiltration are less predictable and are likely to be influenced by additional clinical factors to be taken into consideration.
Resumo:
Major volcanic eruptions generate widespread ocean cooling, which reduces upper ocean stratification. This effect has the potential to increase nutrient delivery into the euphotic zone and boost biological productivity. Using externally forced last millennium simulations of three climate/Earth System models (Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate (MIROC), Community Earth System Model (CESM), and LOch-Vecode-Ecbilt-CLio-agIsm Model (LOVECLIM)), we test the hypothesis that large volcanic eruptions intensify nutrient-driven export production. It is found that strong volcanic radiative forcing enhances the likelihood of eastern Pacific El Niño-like warming in CESM and LOVECLIM. This leads to an initial reduction of nutrients and export production in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, this initial response reverses after about 3 years in association with La Niña cooling. The resulting delayed enhancement of biological production resembles the multiyear response in MIROC. The model simulations show that volcanic impacts on tropical Pacific dynamics and biogeochemistry persist for several years, thus providing a new source for potential multiyear ecosystem predictability.
Resumo:
Parkinson disease (PD) is a movement disorder affecting over one million Americans, and 1% of our population over 60 years of age. Currently, PD has an unknown cause, no predictive biomarker, and no cure, yet there are effective treatments (medicine and surgery) to chronically manage the motor symptoms. But, PD patients also develop cognitive symptoms (e.g., distractibility, executive dysfunction) that remain untreated or may decline as a result of treating the motor symptoms. To address this important issue, I measured covert orienting of attention and overt eye movements in PD patients to assess the patients' ability to automatically detect stimuli in their visual field, to predict and attend to where the stimuli would appear, and to volitionally look somewhere else. ^ PD patients completed the cognitive tasks under multiple treatment conditions, and their performance was compared to healthy adults. PD patients first completed the tasks after they had withdrawn from medication. Their unmedicated performance revealed exaggerated automatic orienting, poor predictability, and weak volitional orienting. PD patients then repeated the tasks while medication was giving its peak benefit. The medication returned automatic covert orienting toward normal but did not improve volitional covert orienting. Several PD patients completed the tasks a third time after receiving surgery (specifically, implantation of stimulating electrodes in a subcortical brain region to alleviate motor symptoms). The stimulation (without medication) returned automatic orienting toward normal, did not change predictability, and further impaired volitional orienting. Taken together, treatments prescribed to alleviate the motor symptoms (a patient's primary concern) only improve some cognitive functions. Future studies may establish criteria to predict which patients are more likely to have cognitive benefit from medication over surgery, or vice versa. ^ I have also hypothesized an anatomical model relating orienting circuitry to abnormal PD circuitry and the therapeutic targets. My results suggest medication is more effective restoring the orienting circuitry than stimulation. Further, automatic and volitional orienting abilities seem to be modulated independently, which differs from an earlier model proposing a dependent, inverse relationship. My results are further discussed in terms of response inhibition, response selection, and the location of the selection. ^
Resumo:
The National Health Planning and Resources Development Act of 1974 (Public Law 93-641) requires that health systems agencies (HSAs) plan for their health service areas by the use of existing data to the maximum extent practicable. Health planning is based on the identificaton of health needs; however, HSAs are, at present, identifying health needs in their service areas in some approximate terms. This lack of specificity has greatly reduced the effectiveness of health planning. The intent of this study is, therefore, to explore the feasibility of predicting community levels of hospitalized morbidity by diagnosis by the use of existing data so as to allow health planners to plan for the services associated with specific diagnoses.^ The specific objectives of this study are (a) to obtain by means of multiple regression analysis a prediction equation for hospital admission by diagnosis, i.e., select the variables that are related to demand for hospital admissions; (b) to examine how pertinent the variables selected are; and (c) to see if each equation obtained predicts well for health service areas.^ The existing data on hospital admissions by diagnosis are those collected from the National Hospital Discharge Surveys, and are available in a form aggregated to the nine census divisions. When the equations established with such data are applied to local health service areas for prediction, the application is subject to the criticism of the theory of ecological fallacy. Since HSAs have to rely on the availability of existing data, it is imperative to examine whether or not the theory of ecological fallacy holds true in this case.^ The results of the study show that the equations established are highly significant and the independent variables in the equations explain the variation in the demand for hospital admission well. The predictability of these equations is good when they are applied to areas at the same ecological level but become poor, predominantly due to ecological fallacy, when they are applied to health service areas.^ It is concluded that HSAs can not predict hospital admissions by diagnosis without primary data collection as discouraged by Public Law 93-641. ^
Resumo:
Ecosystems at high northern latitudes are subject to strong climate change. Soil processes, such as carbon and nutrient cycles, which determine the functioning of these ecosystems, are controlled by soil fauna. Thus assessing the responses of soil fauna communities to environmental change will improve the predictability of the climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning. For this purpose, trait assessment is a promising method compared to the traditional taxonomic approach, but it has not been applied earlier. In this study the response of a sub-arctic soil Collembola community to long-term (16 years) climate manipulation by open top chambers was assessed. The drought-susceptible Collembola community responded strongly to the climate manipulation, which substantially reduced soil moisture and slightly increased soil temperature. The total density of Collembola decreased by 51% and the average number of species was reduced from 14 to 12. Although community assessment showed species-specific responses, taxonomically based community indices, species diversity and evenness, were not affected. However, morphological and ecological trait assessments were more sensitive in revealing community responses. Drought-tolerant, larger-sized, epiedaphic species survived better under the climate manipulation than their counterparts, the meso-hydrophilic, smaller-sized and euedaphic species. Moreover it also explained the significant responses shown by four taxa. This study shows that trait analysis can both reveal responses in a soil fauna community to climate change and improve the understanding of the mechanisms behind them.
Resumo:
Alejandro Kaufman (2008) señala que grandes transformaciones se están produciendo desde una perspectiva histórico - cultural en la relación que se establece entre la educación y la sociedad. Y que muchas de las tensiones entre ambas son el producto de lo que denomina "novedades" culturales. Sostiene que la educación se ha sustentado en una cierta previsibilidad y que, en cuanto que la modernidad representa progreso, el cual estaría asociado a la desaparición o transformación de muchas de esas certidumbres, la escuela estaría sufriendo ciertas modificaciones que involucran los propios cimientos de la institución escolar. La formación de los futuros maestros en el área de Ciencias Sociales debe ser ajustada a los requerimientos de esta nueva sociedad. El abordaje de la Didáctica de las Ciencias Sociales debe considerar las nuevas aproximaciones epistemológicas y temáticas relevantes en las propuestas pedagógicas. Es indispensable que, así como existen contenidos de Geografía en los planes de estudio de los profesorados y profusas indicaciones para su tratamiento en los diseños curriculares de Primero y Segundo ciclo, se verifique el desarrollo de los mismos desde una mirada crítica que permita tanto a docentes como alumnos un compromiso con el mundo en el que la escuela está inserta
Resumo:
Alejandro Kaufman (2008) señala que grandes transformaciones se están produciendo desde una perspectiva histórico - cultural en la relación que se establece entre la educación y la sociedad. Y que muchas de las tensiones entre ambas son el producto de lo que denomina "novedades" culturales. Sostiene que la educación se ha sustentado en una cierta previsibilidad y que, en cuanto que la modernidad representa progreso, el cual estaría asociado a la desaparición o transformación de muchas de esas certidumbres, la escuela estaría sufriendo ciertas modificaciones que involucran los propios cimientos de la institución escolar. La formación de los futuros maestros en el área de Ciencias Sociales debe ser ajustada a los requerimientos de esta nueva sociedad. El abordaje de la Didáctica de las Ciencias Sociales debe considerar las nuevas aproximaciones epistemológicas y temáticas relevantes en las propuestas pedagógicas. Es indispensable que, así como existen contenidos de Geografía en los planes de estudio de los profesorados y profusas indicaciones para su tratamiento en los diseños curriculares de Primero y Segundo ciclo, se verifique el desarrollo de los mismos desde una mirada crítica que permita tanto a docentes como alumnos un compromiso con el mundo en el que la escuela está inserta
Resumo:
Alejandro Kaufman (2008) señala que grandes transformaciones se están produciendo desde una perspectiva histórico - cultural en la relación que se establece entre la educación y la sociedad. Y que muchas de las tensiones entre ambas son el producto de lo que denomina "novedades" culturales. Sostiene que la educación se ha sustentado en una cierta previsibilidad y que, en cuanto que la modernidad representa progreso, el cual estaría asociado a la desaparición o transformación de muchas de esas certidumbres, la escuela estaría sufriendo ciertas modificaciones que involucran los propios cimientos de la institución escolar. La formación de los futuros maestros en el área de Ciencias Sociales debe ser ajustada a los requerimientos de esta nueva sociedad. El abordaje de la Didáctica de las Ciencias Sociales debe considerar las nuevas aproximaciones epistemológicas y temáticas relevantes en las propuestas pedagógicas. Es indispensable que, así como existen contenidos de Geografía en los planes de estudio de los profesorados y profusas indicaciones para su tratamiento en los diseños curriculares de Primero y Segundo ciclo, se verifique el desarrollo de los mismos desde una mirada crítica que permita tanto a docentes como alumnos un compromiso con el mundo en el que la escuela está inserta
Resumo:
We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.
Resumo:
Distributed real-time embedded systems are becoming increasingly important to society. More demands will be made on them and greater reliance will be placed on the delivery of their services. A relevant subset of them is high-integrity or hard real-time systems, where failure can cause loss of life, environmental harm, or significant financial loss. Additionally, the evolution of communication networks and paradigms as well as the necessity of demanding processing power and fault tolerance, motivated the interconnection between electronic devices; many of the communications have the possibility of transferring data at a high speed. The concept of distributed systems emerged as systems where different parts are executed on several nodes that interact with each other via a communication network. Java’s popularity, facilities and platform independence have made it an interesting language for the real-time and embedded community. This was the motivation for the development of RTSJ (Real-Time Specification for Java), which is a language extension intended to allow the development of real-time systems. The use of Java in the development of high-integrity systems requires strict development and testing techniques. However, RTJS includes a number of language features that are forbidden in such systems. In the context of the HIJA project, the HRTJ (Hard Real-Time Java) profile was developed to define a robust subset of the language that is amenable to static analysis for high-integrity system certification. Currently, a specification under the Java community process (JSR- 302) is being developed. Its purpose is to define those capabilities needed to create safety critical applications with Java technology called Safety Critical Java (SCJ). However, neither RTSJ nor its profiles provide facilities to develop distributed realtime applications. This is an important issue, as most of the current and future systems will be distributed. The Distributed RTSJ (DRTSJ) Expert Group was created under the Java community process (JSR-50) in order to define appropriate abstractions to overcome this problem. Currently there is no formal specification. The aim of this thesis is to develop a communication middleware that is suitable for the development of distributed hard real-time systems in Java, based on the integration between the RMI (Remote Method Invocation) model and the HRTJ profile. It has been designed and implemented keeping in mind the main requirements such as the predictability and reliability in the timing behavior and the resource usage. iThe design starts with the definition of a computational model which identifies among other things: the communication model, most appropriate underlying network protocols, the analysis model, and a subset of Java for hard real-time systems. In the design, the remote references are the basic means for building distributed applications which are associated with all non-functional parameters and resources needed to implement synchronous or asynchronous remote invocations with real-time attributes. The proposed middleware separates the resource allocation from the execution itself by defining two phases and a specific threading mechanism that guarantees a suitable timing behavior. It also includes mechanisms to monitor the functional and the timing behavior. It provides independence from network protocol defining a network interface and modules. The JRMP protocol was modified to include two phases, non-functional parameters, and message size optimizations. Although serialization is one of the fundamental operations to ensure proper data transmission, current implementations are not suitable for hard real-time systems and there are no alternatives. This thesis proposes a predictable serialization that introduces a new compiler to generate optimized code according to the computational model. The proposed solution has the advantage of allowing us to schedule the communications and to adjust the memory usage at compilation time. In order to validate the design and the implementation a demanding validation process was carried out with emphasis in the functional behavior, the memory usage, the processor usage (the end-to-end response time and the response time in each functional block) and the network usage (real consumption according to the calculated consumption). The results obtained in an industrial application developed by Thales Avionics (a Flight Management System) and in exhaustive tests show that the design and the prototype are reliable for industrial applications with strict timing requirements. Los sistemas empotrados y distribuidos de tiempo real son cada vez más importantes para la sociedad. Su demanda aumenta y cada vez más dependemos de los servicios que proporcionan. Los sistemas de alta integridad constituyen un subconjunto de gran importancia. Se caracterizan por que un fallo en su funcionamiento puede causar pérdida de vidas humanas, daños en el medio ambiente o cuantiosas pérdidas económicas. La necesidad de satisfacer requisitos temporales estrictos, hace más complejo su desarrollo. Mientras que los sistemas empotrados se sigan expandiendo en nuestra sociedad, es necesario garantizar un coste de desarrollo ajustado mediante el uso técnicas adecuadas en su diseño, mantenimiento y certificación. En concreto, se requiere una tecnología flexible e independiente del hardware. La evolución de las redes y paradigmas de comunicación, así como la necesidad de mayor potencia de cómputo y de tolerancia a fallos, ha motivado la interconexión de dispositivos electrónicos. Los mecanismos de comunicación permiten la transferencia de datos con alta velocidad de transmisión. En este contexto, el concepto de sistema distribuido ha emergido como sistemas donde sus componentes se ejecutan en varios nodos en paralelo y que interactúan entre ellos mediante redes de comunicaciones. Un concepto interesante son los sistemas de tiempo real neutrales respecto a la plataforma de ejecución. Se caracterizan por la falta de conocimiento de esta plataforma durante su diseño. Esta propiedad es relevante, por que conviene que se ejecuten en la mayor variedad de arquitecturas, tienen una vida media mayor de diez anos y el lugar ˜ donde se ejecutan puede variar. El lenguaje de programación Java es una buena base para el desarrollo de este tipo de sistemas. Por este motivo se ha creado RTSJ (Real-Time Specification for Java), que es una extensión del lenguaje para permitir el desarrollo de sistemas de tiempo real. Sin embargo, RTSJ no proporciona facilidades para el desarrollo de aplicaciones distribuidas de tiempo real. Es una limitación importante dado que la mayoría de los actuales y futuros sistemas serán distribuidos. El grupo DRTSJ (DistributedRTSJ) fue creado bajo el proceso de la comunidad de Java (JSR-50) con el fin de definir las abstracciones que aborden dicha limitación, pero en la actualidad aun no existe una especificacion formal. El objetivo de esta tesis es desarrollar un middleware de comunicaciones para el desarrollo de sistemas distribuidos de tiempo real en Java, basado en la integración entre el modelo de RMI (Remote Method Invocation) y el perfil HRTJ. Ha sido diseñado e implementado teniendo en cuenta los requisitos principales, como la predecibilidad y la confiabilidad del comportamiento temporal y el uso de recursos. El diseño parte de la definición de un modelo computacional el cual identifica entre otras cosas: el modelo de comunicaciones, los protocolos de red subyacentes más adecuados, el modelo de análisis, y un subconjunto de Java para sistemas de tiempo real crítico. En el diseño, las referencias remotas son el medio básico para construcción de aplicaciones distribuidas las cuales son asociadas a todos los parámetros no funcionales y los recursos necesarios para la ejecución de invocaciones remotas síncronas o asíncronas con atributos de tiempo real. El middleware propuesto separa la asignación de recursos de la propia ejecución definiendo dos fases y un mecanismo de hebras especifico que garantiza un comportamiento temporal adecuado. Además se ha incluido mecanismos para supervisar el comportamiento funcional y temporal. Se ha buscado independencia del protocolo de red definiendo una interfaz de red y módulos específicos. También se ha modificado el protocolo JRMP para incluir diferentes fases, parámetros no funcionales y optimizaciones de los tamaños de los mensajes. Aunque la serialización es una de las operaciones fundamentales para asegurar la adecuada transmisión de datos, las actuales implementaciones no son adecuadas para sistemas críticos y no hay alternativas. Este trabajo propone una serialización predecible que ha implicado el desarrollo de un nuevo compilador para la generación de código optimizado acorde al modelo computacional. La solución propuesta tiene la ventaja que en tiempo de compilación nos permite planificar las comunicaciones y ajustar el uso de memoria. Con el objetivo de validar el diseño e implementación se ha llevado a cabo un exigente proceso de validación con énfasis en: el comportamiento funcional, el uso de memoria, el uso del procesador (tiempo de respuesta de extremo a extremo y en cada uno de los bloques funcionales) y el uso de la red (consumo real conforme al estimado). Los buenos resultados obtenidos en una aplicación industrial desarrollada por Thales Avionics (un sistema de gestión de vuelo) y en las pruebas exhaustivas han demostrado que el diseño y el prototipo son fiables para aplicaciones industriales con estrictos requisitos temporales.