One-year prevalence of low back pain in two Swiss regions: estimates from the population participating in the 1992-1993 MONICA project.

STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey was performed. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the extent of low back pain as a public health problem. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Health surveys converge on very high estimates of low back pain in general populations, but few studies have included severity criteria in their definition and conclusions. Because it is unlikely that interventions will influence the prevalence of minimal and infrequent symptoms, greater attention should be paid to characteristics of low back pain that indicate some impact on the life of survey respondents. METHODS: Two regions participated in the MONICA (MONitoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) project in Switzerland. Participants randomly selected from the general population completed a standard self-administered questionnaire on cardiovascular risk factors. A special section on low back pain was added in the third (1992-1993) MONICA survey and completed by 3227 participants. RESULTS: A regional difference found in the 12-month prevalence rate disappeared with the inclusion of severity criteria. Low back pain over more than seven cumulated days was reported among men by 20.2% (age range, 25-34 years) to 28.5% (age range, 65-74 years), respectively, among women by 31.1% to 38.5%. Similar rates of reduction in activity (professional, housekeeping, and leisure time) and medical consultation (conventional and nonconventional) motivated by low back pain characterized the two participating regions. The cumulative duration of pain was related to all the indicators showing the impact of low back pain on everyday life. CONCLUSIONS: Determining the cumulative duration of low back pain over the preceding year is a straightforward task, and a cutoff at 1 week seems appropriate for distinguishing between low- and high-impact low back pain.

Gender and socioeconomic disparities in BMI trajectories in the Seychelles using birth cohorts generated from serial population-based surveys.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and socioeconomic status (SES) tends to change over time and across populations. In this study, we examined, separately in men and women, whether the association between BMI and SES changed over successive birth cohorts in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African region). METHODS: We used data from all participants in three surveys conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004 in independent random samples of the population aged 25-64 years in the Seychelles (N= 3'403). We used linear regression to model mean BMI according to age, cohort, SES and smoking status, allowing for a quadratic term for age to account for a curvilinear relation between BMI and age and interactions between SES and age and between SES and cohorts to test whether the relation between SES and BMI changed across subsequent cohorts. All analyses were performed separately in men and women. RESULTS: BMI increased with age in all birth cohorts. BMI was lower in men of low SES than high SES but was higher in women of low SES than high SES. In all SES categories, BMI increased over successive cohorts (1.24 kg/m2 in men and 1.51 kg/m2 for a 10-year increase in birth cohorts, p <0.001). The difference in BMI between men or women of high vs. low SES did not change significantly across successive cohorts (the interaction between SES and year of birth of cohort was statistically not significant). Smoking was associated with lower BMI in men and women (respectively -1.55 kg/m2 and 2.46 kg/m2, p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although large differences exist between men and women, social patterning of BMI did not change significantly over successive cohorts in this population of a middle-income country in the African region.

Reliable selfing rate estimates from imperfect population genetic data.

Genotypic frequencies at codominant marker loci in population samples convey information on mating systems. A classical way to extract this information is to measure heterozygote deficiencies (FIS) and obtain the selfing rate s from FIS = s/(2 - s), assuming inbreeding equilibrium. A major drawback is that heterozygote deficiencies are often present without selfing, owing largely to technical artefacts such as null alleles or partial dominance. We show here that, in the absence of gametic disequilibrium, the multilocus structure can be used to derive estimates of s independent of FIS and free of technical biases. Their statistical power and precision are comparable to those of FIS, although they are sensitive to certain types of gametic disequilibria, a bias shared with progeny-array methods but not FIS. We analyse four real data sets spanning a range of mating systems. In two examples, we obtain s = 0 despite positive FIS, strongly suggesting that the latter are artefactual. In the remaining examples, all estimates are consistent. All the computations have been implemented in a open-access and user-friendly software called rmes (robust multilocus estimate of selfing) available at http://ftp.cefe.cnrs.fr, and can be used on any multilocus data. Being able to extract the reliable information from imperfect data, our method opens the way to make use of the ever-growing number of published population genetic studies, in addition to the more demanding progeny-array approaches, to investigate selfing rates.

Public health impact of statin prescribing strategies based on JUPITER Modeling study from a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the public health impact of statin prescribing strategies based on the Justification for the Use of Statins in Primary Prevention: An Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin Study (JUPITER). METHODS: We studied 2268 adults aged 35-75 without cardiovascular disease in a population-based study in Switzerland in 2003-2006. We assessed the eligibility for statins according to the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATPIII) guidelines, and by adding "strict" (hs-CRP≥2.0mg/L and LDL-cholesterol <3.4mmol/L), and "extended" (hs-CRP≥2.0mg/L alone) JUPITER-like criteria. We estimated the proportion of CHD deaths potentially prevented over 10years in the Swiss population. RESULTS: Fifteen % were already taking statins, 42% were eligible by ATPIII guidelines, 53% by adding "strict", and 62% by adding "extended" criteria, with a total of 19% newly eligible. The number needed to treat with statins to avoid one CHD death over 10years was 38 for ATPIII, 84 for "strict" and 92 for "extended" JUPITER-like criteria. ATPIII would prevent 17% of CHD deaths, compared with 20% for ATPIII+"strict" and 23% for ATPIII + "extended" criteria (+6%). CONCLUSION: Implementing JUPITER-like strategies would make statin prescribing for primary prevention more common and less efficient than it is with current guidelines.

Ambiguous nucleotide calls from population-based sequencing of HIV-1 are a marker for viral diversity and the age of infection.

Background. The time passed since the infection of a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individual (the age of infection) is an important but often only poorly known quantity. We assessed whether the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides obtained from bulk sequencing as done for genotypic resistance testing can serve as a proxy of this parameter. Methods. We correlated the age of infection and the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides in partial pol sequences of HIV-1 sampled before initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Three groups of Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants were analyzed, for whom the age of infection was estimated on the basis of Bayesian back calculation (n = 3,307), seroconversion (n = 366), or diagnoses of primary HIV infection (n = 130). In addition, we studied 124 patients for whom longitudinal genotypic resistance testing was performed while they were still ART-naive. Results. We found that the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides increased with the age of infection with a rate of .2% per year within the first 8 years but thereafter with a decreasing rate. We show that this pattern is consistent with population-genetic models for realistic parameters. Finally, we show that, in this highly representative population, a fraction of ambiguous nucleotides of >.5% provides strong evidence against a recent infection event < 1 year prior to sampling (negative predictive value, 98.7%). Conclusions. These findings show that the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides is a useful marker for the age of infection.

Evidence for chronic low-grade systemic inflammation in individuals with agoraphobia from a population-based prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Anxiety disorders have been linked to an increased risk of incident coronary heart disease in which inflammation plays a key pathogenic role. To date, no studies have looked at the association between proinflammatory markers and agoraphobia. METHODS: In a random Swiss population sample of 2890 persons (35-67 years, 53% women), we diagnosed a total of 124 individuals (4.3%) with agoraphobia using a validated semi-structured psychiatric interview. We also assessed socioeconomic status, traditional cardiovascular risk factors (i.e., body mass index, hypertension, blood glucose levels, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio), and health behaviors (i.e., smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical activity), and other major psychiatric diseases (other anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, drug dependence) which were treated as covariates in linear regression models. Circulating levels of inflammatory markers, statistically controlled for the baseline demographic and health-related measures, were determined at a mean follow-up of 5.5 ± 0.4 years (range 4.7 - 8.5). RESULTS: Individuals with agoraphobia had significantly higher follow-up levels of C-reactive protein (p = 0.007) and tumor-necrosis-factor-α (p = 0.042) as well as lower levels of the cardioprotective marker adiponectin (p = 0.032) than their non-agoraphobic counterparts. Follow-up levels of interleukin (IL)-1β and IL-6 did not significantly differ between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest an increase in chronic low-grade inflammation in agoraphobia over time. Such a mechanism might link agoraphobia with an increased risk of atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease, and needs to be tested in longitudinal studies.

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009 : analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75 000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems. FUNDING: Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (Toronto, Canada), Cancer Focus Northern Ireland (Belfast, UK), Cancer Institute New South Wales (Sydney, Australia), Cancer Research UK (London, UK), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA), Swiss Re (London, UK), Swiss Cancer Research foundation (Bern, Switzerland), Swiss Cancer League (Bern, Switzerland), and University of Kentucky (Lexington, KY, USA).

Aspirin and statin use and the subsequent development of depression in men and women: Results from a longitudinal population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Low-grade chronic inflammation is one potential mechanism underlying the well-established association between major depressive disorder (MDD) and increased cardiovascular morbidity. Both aspirin and statins have anti-inflammatory properties, which may contribute to their preventive effect on cardiovascular diseases. Previous studies on the potentially preventive effect of these drugs on depression have provided inconsistent results. The aim of the present paper was to assess the prospective association between regular aspirin or statin use and the incidence of MDD. METHOD: This prospective cohort study included 1631 subjects (43.6% women, mean age 51.7 years), randomly selected from the general population of an urban area. Subjects underwent a thorough physical evaluation as well as semi-structured interviews investigating DSM-IV mental disorders at baseline and follow-up (mean duration 5.2 years). Analyses were adjusted for a wide array of potential confounders. RESULTS: Our main finding was that regular aspirin or statin use at baseline did not reduce the incidence of MDD during follow-up, regardless of sex or age (hazard ratios, aspirin: 1.19; 95%CI, 0.68-2.08; and statins: 1.25; 95%CI, 0.73-2.14; respectively). LIMITATIONS: Our study is not a randomized clinical trial and could not adjust for all potential confounding factors, information on aspirin or statin use was collected only for the 6 months prior to the evaluations, and the sample was restricted to subjects between 35 and 66 years of age. CONCLUSION: Our data do not support a large scale preventive treatment of depression using aspirin or statins in subjects aged from 35 to 66 years from the community.

Reproducibility of Vertebral Fracture Assessment Readings From Dual-energy X-ray Absorptiometry in Both a Population-based and Clinical Cohort: Cohen's and Uniform Kappa.

Vertebral fracture assessments (VFAs) using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry increase vertebral fracture detection in clinical practice and are highly reproducible. Measures of reproducibility are dependent on the frequency and distribution of the event. The aim of this study was to compare 2 reproducibility measures, reliability and agreement, in VFA readings in both a population-based and a clinical cohort. We measured agreement and reliability by uniform kappa and Cohen's kappa for vertebral reading and fracture identification: 360 VFAs from a population-based cohort and 85 from a clinical cohort. In the population-based cohort, 12% of vertebrae were unreadable. Vertebral fracture prevalence ranged from 3% to 4%. Inter-reader and intrareader reliability with Cohen's kappa was fair to good (0.35-0.71 and 0.36-0.74, respectively), with good inter-reader and intrareader agreement by uniform kappa (0.74-0.98 and 0.76-0.99, respectively). In the clinical cohort, 15% of vertebrae were unreadable, and vertebral fracture prevalence ranged from 7.6% to 8.1%. Inter-reader reliability was moderate to good (0.43-0.71), and the agreement was good (0.68-0.91). In clinical situations, the levels of reproducibility measured by the 2 kappa statistics are concordant, so that either could be used to measure agreement and reliability. However, if events are rare, as in a population-based cohort, we recommend evaluating reproducibility using the uniform kappa, as Cohen's kappa may be less accurate.

Associations between fruit and vegetable consumption and psychological distress: results from a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Several studies observed associations of various aspects of diet with mental health, but little is known about the relationship between following the 5-a-day recommendation for fruit and vegetables consumption and mental health. Thus, we examined the associations of the Swiss daily recommended fruit and vegetable intake with psychological distress. METHODS: Data from 20,220 individuals aged 15+ years from the 2012 Swiss Health Survey were analyzed. The recommended portions of fruit and vegetables per day were defined as 5-a-day (at least 2 portions of fruit and 3 of vegetables). The outcome was perceived psychological distress over the previous 4 weeks (measured by the 5-item mental health index [MHI-5]). High distress (MHI-5 score ≤ 52), moderate distress (MHI-5 > 52 and ≤ 72) and low distress (MHI-5 > 72 and ≤ 100) were differentiated and multinomial logistic regression analyses adjusted for known confounding factors were performed. RESULTS: The 5-a-day recommendation was met by 11.6 % of the participants with low distress, 9.3 % of those with moderate distress, and 6.2 % of those with high distress. Consumers fulfilling the 5-a-day recommendation had lower odds of being highly or moderately distressed than individuals consuming less fruit and vegetables (moderate vs. low distress: OR = 0.82, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.69-0.97; high vs. low distress: OR = 0.55, 95 % CI 0.41-0.75). CONCLUSIONS: Daily intake of 5 servings of fruit and vegetable was associated with lower psychological distress. Longitudinal studies are needed to further determine the causal nature of this relationship.

2015 Update on Acute Adverse Reactions to Gadolinium based Contrast Agents in Cardiovascular MR. Large Multi-National and Multi-Ethnical Population Experience With 37788 Patients From the EuroCMR Registry.

OBJECTIVES: Specifically we aim to demonstrate that the results of our earlier safety data hold true in this much larger multi-national and multi-ethnical population. BACKGROUND: We sought to re-evaluate the frequency, manifestations, and severity of acute adverse reactions associated with administration of several gadolinium- based contrast agents during routine CMR on a European level. METHODS: Multi-centre, multi-national, and multi-ethnical registry with consecutive enrolment of patients in 57 European centres. RESULTS: During the current observation 37,788 doses of Gadolinium based contrast agent were administered to 37,788 patients. The mean dose was 24.7 ml (range 5-80 ml), which is equivalent to 0.123 mmol/kg (range 0.01 - 0.3 mmol/kg). Forty-five acute adverse reactions due to contrast administration occurred (0.12%). Most reactions were classified as mild (43 of 45) according to the American College of Radiology definition. The most frequent complaints following contrast administration were rashes and hives (15 of 45), followed by nausea (10 of 45) and flushes (10 of 45). The event rate ranged from 0.05% (linear non-ionic agent gadodiamide) to 0.42% (linear ionic agent gadobenate dimeglumine). Interestingly, we also found different event rates between the three main indications for CMR ranging from 0.05% (risk stratification in suspected CAD) to 0.22% (viability in known CAD). CONCLUSIONS: The current data indicate that the results of the earlier safety data hold true in this much larger multi-national and multi-ethnical population. Thus, the "off-label" use of Gadolinium based contrast in cardiovascular MR should be regarded as safe concerning the frequency, manifestation and severity of acute events.

The Genomic Signature of Population Reconnection Following Isolation: From Theory to HIV.

Ease of worldwide travel provides increased opportunities for organisms not only to colonize new environments but also to encounter related but diverged populations. Such events of reconnection and secondary contact of previously isolated populations are widely observed at different time scales. For example, during the quaternary glaciation, sea water level fluctuations caused temporal isolation of populations, often to be followed by secondary contact. At shorter time scales, population isolation and reconnection of viruses are commonly observed, and such events are often associated with epidemics and pandemics. Here, using coalescent theory and simulations, we describe the temporal impact of population reconnection after isolation on nucleotide differences and the site frequency spectrum, as well as common summary statistics of DNA variation. We identify robust genomic signatures of population reconnection after isolation. We utilize our development to infer the recent evolutionary history of human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) in Asia and South America, successfully retrieving the successive HIV subtype colonization events in these regions. Our analysis reveals that divergent HIV-1 subtype populations are currently admixing in these regions, suggesting that HIV-1 may be undergoing a process of homogenization, contrary to popular belief.

Individual differences in gene expression : insights from transcriptional control of the CSL gene and from human population studies

CSL is a key transcription factor, mostly acting as a repressor, which has been shown to have a highly context-dependent function. While known as the main effector of Notch signaling, it can also exert Notch-independent functions. The downstream effects of the Notch/CSL signaling pathway and its involvement in several biological processes have been intensively studied. We recently showed that CSL is important to maintain skin homeostasis, as its specific deletion in mouse dermal fibroblasts -or downmodulation in human stromal fibroblasts- creates an inducing environment for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) development, possibly due to the conversion of stromal fibroblasts into cancer associated fibroblasts (CAFs). Despite the wide interest in CSL as a transcriptional regulator, the mechanism of its own regulation has so far been neglected. We show here that CSL expression levels differ between individuals, and correlate among others with genes involved in DNA damage response. Starting from this finding we show that in dermal fibroblasts CSL is under transcriptional control of stress inducers such as UVA irradiation and Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) induction, and that a main player in CSL transcriptional regulation is the transcription factor p53. In a separate line of work, we focused on individual variability, studying the differences in gene expression between human populations in various cancer types, particularly focusing on the Caucasian and African populations. It is indeed widely known that these populations have different incidences and mortalities for various cancers, and response to cancer treatment may also vary between them. We show here several genes that are differentially expressed and could be of interest in the study of population differences in cancer. -- CSL est un facteur de transcription agissant essentiellement comme répresseur, et qui a une fonction hautement dépendant du contexte. C'est l'effecteur principal de la voie de signalisation de Notch, mais il peut également exercer ses fonctions dans une façon Notch- indépendante. Nous avons récemment montré que CSL est important pour maintenir l'homéostasie de la peau. Sa suppression spécifique dans les fibroblastes dermiques de la souris ou dans les fibroblastes stromales humaines crée un environnement favorable pour le développement du carcinome épidermoïde (SCC), probablement en raison de la conversion des fibroblastes en fibroblastes associé au cancer (CAF). Malgré le grand intérêt de CSL comme régulateur transcriptionnel, le mécanisme de sa propre régulation a été jusqu'ici négligée. Nous montrons ici que dans les fibroblastes dermiques CSL est sous le contrôle transcriptionnel de facteurs de stress tels que l'irradiation UVA et l'induction des ROS dont p53 est l'acteur principal de cette régulation. Nous montrons aussi que les niveaux d'expression de CSL varient selon les individus, en corrélation avec d'autres gènes impliqués dans la réponse aux dommages de l'ADN. Dans une autre axe de recherche, concernant la variabilité individuelle, nous avons étudié les différences dans l'expression des gènes dans différents types de cancer entre les populations humaines, en se concentrant particulièrement sur les populations africaines et caucasiennes. Il est en effet bien connu que ces populations montrent des variations dans l'incidence des cancers, la mortalité, ainsi que pour les réponses au traitement. Nous montrons ici plusieurs gènes qui sont exprimés différemment et pourraient être digne d'intérêt dans l'étude du cancer au sein de différentes populations.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. METHODS: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18·5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), ≥40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21·3-22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m(2) (24·0-24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m(2) (21·7-22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m(2) (24·2-24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m(2) (28·6-29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m(2) (21·4-22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m(2) (31·5-32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5-17·4) to 8·8% (7·4-10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6-17·9) to 9·7% (8·3-11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8-29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9-29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4-4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7-12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1-7·8) to 14·9% (13·6-16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0-2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4-5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46-0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3-1·9) in women. INTERPRETATION: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada.