Assessing influence in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates

Diagnostic methods have been an important tool in regression analysis to detect anomalies, such as departures from error assumptions and the presence of outliers and influential observations with the fitted models. Assuming censored data, we considered a classical analysis and Bayesian analysis assuming no informative priors for the parameters of the model with a cure fraction. A Bayesian approach was considered by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods with Metropolis-Hasting algorithms steps to obtain the posterior summaries of interest. Some influence methods, such as the local influence, total local influence of an individual, local influence on predictions and generalized leverage were derived, analyzed and discussed in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates. The relevance of the approach was illustrated with a real data set, where it is shown that, by removing the most influential observations, the decision about which model best fits the data is changed.

Turbulent magnetic pumping in a Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model

Context. The turbulent pumping effect corresponds to the transport of magnetic flux due to the presence of density and turbulence gradients in convectively unstable layers. In the induction equation it appears as an advective term and for this reason it is expected to be important in the solar and stellar dynamo processes. Aims. We explore the effects of turbulent pumping in a flux-dominated Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model with a solar-like rotation law. Methods. As a first step, only vertical pumping has been considered through the inclusion of a radial diamagnetic term in the induction equation. In the second step, a latitudinal pumping term was included and then, a near-surface shear was included. Results. The results reveal the importance of the pumping mechanism in solving current limitations in mean field dynamo modeling, such as the storage of the magnetic flux and the latitudinal distribution of the sunspots. If a meridional flow is assumed to be present only in the upper part of the convective zone, it is the full turbulent pumping that regulates both the period of the solar cycle and the latitudinal distribution of the sunspot activity. In models that consider shear near the surface, a second shell of toroidal field is generated above r = 0.95 R(circle dot) at all latitudes. If the full pumping is also included, the polar toroidal fields are efficiently advected inwards, and the toroidal magnetic activity survives only at the observed latitudes near the equator. With regard to the parity of the magnetic field, only models that combine turbulent pumping with near-surface shear always converge to the dipolar parity. Conclusions. This result suggests that, under the Babcock-Leighton approach, the equartorward motion of the observed magnetic activity is governed by the latitudinal pumping of the toroidal magnetic field rather than by a large scale coherent meridional flow. Our results support the idea that the parity problem is related to the quadrupolar imprint of the meridional flow on the poloidal component of the magnetic field and the turbulent pumping positively contributes to wash out this imprint.

Respiratory allergy to Blomia tropicalis: Immune response in four syngeneic mouse strains and assessment of a low allergen-dose, short-term experimental model

Background: The dust mite Blomia tropicalis is an important source of aeroallergens in tropical areas. Although a mouse model for B. tropicalis extract (BtE)-induced asthma has been described, no study comparing different mouse strains in this asthma model has been reported. The relevance and reproducibility of experimental animal models of allergy depends on the genetic background of the animal, the molecular composition of the allergen and the experimental protocol. Objectives: This work had two objectives. The first was to study the anti-B. tropicalis allergic responses in different mouse strains using a short-term model of respiratory allergy to BtE. This study included the comparison of the allergic responses elicited by BtE with those elicited by ovalbumin in mice of the strain that responded better to BtE sensitization. The second objective was to investigate whether the best responder mouse strain could be used in an experimental model of allergy employing relatively low BtE doses. Methods: Groups of mice of four different syngeneic strains were sensitized subcutaneously with 100 mu g of BtE on days 0 and 7 and challenged four times intranasally, at days 8, 10, 12, and 14, with 10 mu g of BtE. A/J mice, that were the best responders to BtE sensitization, were used to compare the B. tropicalis-specific asthma experimental model with the conventional experimental model of ovalbumin (OVA)-specific asthma. A/J mice were also sensitized with a lower dose of BtE. Results: Mice of all strains had lung inflammatory-cell infiltration and increased levels of anti-BtE IgE antibodies, but these responses were significantly more intense in A/J mice than in CBA/J, BALB/c or C57BL/6J mice. Immunization of A/J mice with BtE induced a more intense airway eosinophil influx, higher levels of total IgE, similar airway hyperreactivity to methacholine but less intense mucous production, and lower levels of specific IgE, IgG1 and IgG2 antibodies than sensitization with OVA. Finally, immunization with a relatively low BtE dose (10 mu g per subcutaneous injection per mouse) was able to sensitize A/J mice, which were the best responders to high-dose BtE immunization, for the development of allergy-associated immune and lung inflammatory responses. Conclusions: The described short-term model of BtE-induced allergic lung disease is reproducible in different syngeneic mouse strains, and mice of the A/J strain was the most responsive to it. In addition, it was shown that OVA and BtE induce quantitatively different immune responses in A/J mice and that the experimental model can be set up with low amounts of BtE.

Phase diagram of a model for a binary mixture of nematic molecules on a Bethe lattice

We investigate the phase diagram of a discrete version of the Maier-Saupe model with the inclusion of additional degrees of freedom to mimic a distribution of rodlike and disklike molecules. Solutions of this problem on a Bethe lattice come from the analysis of the fixed points of a set of nonlinear recursion relations. Besides the fixed points associated with isotropic and uniaxial nematic structures, there is also a fixed point associated with a biaxial nematic structure. Due to the existence of large overlaps of the stability regions, we resorted to a scheme to calculate the free energy of these structures deep in the interior of a large Cayley tree. Both thermodynamic and dynamic-stability analyses rule out the presence of a biaxial phase, in qualitative agreement with previous mean-field results.

Phase transitions and spatially ordered counterion association in ionic-lipid membranes: A statistical model

We propose a statistical model to account for the gel-fluid anomalous phase transitions in charged bilayer- or lamellae-forming ionic lipids. The model Hamiltonian comprises effective attractive interactions to describe neutral-lipid membranes as well as the effect of electrostatic repulsions of the discrete ionic charges on the lipid headgroups. The latter can be counterion dissociated (charged) or counterion associated (neutral), while the lipid acyl chains may be in gel (low-temperature or high-lateral-pressure) or fluid (high-temperature or low-lateral-pressure) states. The system is modeled as a lattice gas with two distinct particle types-each one associated, respectively, with the polar-headgroup and the acyl-chain states-which can be mapped onto an Ashkin-Teller model with the inclusion of cubic terms. The model displays a rich thermodynamic behavior in terms of the chemical potential of counterions (related to added salt concentration) and lateral pressure. In particular, we show the existence of semidissociated thermodynamic phases related to the onset of charge order in the system. This type of order stems from spatially ordered counterion association to the lipid headgroups, in which charged and neutral lipids alternate in a checkerboard-like order. Within the mean-field approximation, we predict that the acyl-chain order-disorder transition is discontinuous, with the first-order line ending at a critical point, as in the neutral case. Moreover, the charge order gives rise to continuous transitions, with the associated second-order lines joining the aforementioned first-order line at critical end points. We explore the thermodynamic behavior of some physical quantities, like the specific heat at constant lateral pressure and the degree of ionization, associated with the fraction of charged lipid headgroups.

Statistical models of mixtures with a biaxial nematic phase

We consider a simple Maier-Saupe statistical model with the inclusion of disorder degrees of freedom to mimic the phase diagram of a mixture of rodlike and disklike molecules. A quenched distribution of shapes leads to a phase diagram with two uniaxial and a biaxial nematic structure. A thermalized distribution, however, which is more adequate to liquid mixtures, precludes the stability of this biaxial phase. We then use a two-temperature formalism, and assume a separation of relaxation times, to show that a partial degree of annealing is already sufficient to stabilize a biaxial nematic structure.

Generalized Sznajd model for opinion propagation

In the last decade the Sznajd model has been successfully employed in modeling some properties and scale features of both proportional and majority elections. We propose a version of the Sznajd model with a generalized bounded confidence rule-a rule that limits the convincing capability of agents and that is essential to allow coexistence of opinions in the stationary state. With an appropriate choice of parameters it can be reduced to previous models. We solved this model both in a mean-field approach (for an arbitrary number of opinions) and numerically in a Barabaacutesi-Albert network (for three and four opinions), studying the transient and the possible stationary states. We built the phase portrait for the special cases of three and four opinions, defining the attractors and their basins of attraction. Through this analysis, we were able to understand and explain discrepancies between mean-field and simulation results obtained in previous works for the usual Sznajd model with bounded confidence and three opinions. Both the dynamical system approach and our generalized bounded confidence rule are quite general and we think it can be useful to the understanding of other similar models.

Modeling and analysis of laminate composite plates with embedded active-passive piezoelectric networks

The objective of this work is to present the finite element modeling of laminate composite plates with embedded piezoelectric patches or layers that are then connected to active-passive resonant shunt circuits, composed of resistance, inductance and voltage source. Applications to passive vibration control and active control authority enhancement are also presented and discussed. The finite element model is based on an equivalent single layer theory combined with a third-order shear deformation theory. A stress-voltage electromechanical model is considered for the piezoelectric materials fully coupled to the electrical circuits. To this end, the electrical circuit equations are also included in the variational formulation. Hence, conservation of charge and full electromechanical coupling are guaranteed. The formulation results in a coupled finite element model with mechanical (displacements) and electrical (charges at electrodes) degrees of freedom. For a Graphite-Epoxy (Carbon-Fibre Reinforced) laminate composite plate, a parametric analysis is performed to evaluate optimal locations along the plate plane (xy) and thickness (z) that maximize the effective modal electromechanical coupling coefficient. Then, the passive vibration control performance is evaluated for a network of optimally located shunted piezoelectric patches embedded in the plate, through the design of resistance and inductance values of each circuit, to reduce the vibration amplitude of the first four vibration modes. A vibration amplitude reduction of at least 10 dB for all vibration modes was observed. Then, an analysis of the control authority enhancement due to the resonant shunt circuit, when the piezoelectric patches are used as actuators, is performed. It is shown that the control authority can indeed be improved near a selected resonance even with multiple pairs of piezoelectric patches and active-passive circuits acting simultaneously. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of organic shock loads in an ASBBR treating synthetic wastewater with different concentration levels

Safe application of the anaerobic sequencing biofilm batch reactor (ASBBR) still depends on deeper insight into its behavior when faced with common operational problems in wastewater treatments such as tolerance to abrupt variations in influent concentration, so called shock loads. To this end the current work shows the effect of organic shock loads on the performance of an ASBBR, with a useful volume of 5 L, containing 0.5-cm polyurethane cubes and operating at 30 degrees C with mechanical stirring of 500 rpm. In the assays 2 L of two types of synthetic wastewater were treated in 8-h cycles. Synthetic wastewater I was based on sucrose-amide-cellulose with concentration of 500 mg COD/L and synthetic wastewater II was based on volatile acids with concentration ranging from 500 to 2000 mg COD/L. Organic shock loads of 2-4 times the operation concentration were applied during one and two cycles. System efficiency was monitored before and after application of the perturbation. When operating with concentrations from 500 to 1000 mg COD/L and shock loads of 2-4 times the influent concentration during one or two cycles the system was able to regain stability after one cycle and the values of organic matter, total and intermediate volatile acids, bicarbonate alkalinity and pH were similar to those prior to the perturbations. At a concentration of 2000 mg COD/L the reactor appeared to be robust, regaining removal efficiencies similar to those prior to perturbation at shock loads twice the operation concentration lasting one cycle and stability was recovered after two cycles. However, for shock loads twice the operation concentration during two cycles and shock loads four times the operation concentration during one or two cycles filtered sample removal efficiency decreased to levels different from those prior to perturbation, on an average of 90-80%, approximately, yet the system managed to attain stability within two cycles after shock application. Therefore, this investigation envisions the potential of full scale application of this type of bioreactor which showed robustness to organic shock loads, despite discontinuous operation and the short times available for treating total wastewater volume. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Imaging in Electrical Impedance Tomography of the Human Chest With Online Transition Matrix Identification

One of the electrical impedance tomography objectives is to estimate the electrical resistivity distribution in a domain based only on electrical potential measurements at its boundary generated by an imposed electrical current distribution into the boundary. One of the methods used in dynamic estimation is the Kalman filter. In biomedical applications, the random walk model is frequently used as evolution model and, under this conditions, poor tracking ability of the extended Kalman filter (EKF) is achieved. An analytically developed evolution model is not feasible at this moment. The paper investigates the identification of the evolution model in parallel to the EKF and updating the evolution model with certain periodicity. The evolution model transition matrix is identified using the history of the estimated resistivity distribution obtained by a sensitivity matrix based algorithm and a Newton-Raphson algorithm. To numerically identify the linear evolution model, the Ibrahim time-domain method is used. The investigation is performed by numerical simulations of a domain with time-varying resistivity and by experimental data collected from the boundary of a human chest during normal breathing. The obtained dynamic resistivity values lie within the expected values for the tissues of a human chest. The EKF results suggest that the tracking ability is significantly improved with this approach.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for zero-inflated negative binomial regression models

The zero-inflated negative binomial model is used to account for overdispersion detected in data that are initially analyzed under the zero-Inflated Poisson model A frequentist analysis a jackknife estimator and a non-parametric bootstrap for parameter estimation of zero-inflated negative binomial regression models are considered In addition an EM-type algorithm is developed for performing maximum likelihood estimation Then the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and some ways to perform global influence analysis are derived In order to study departures from the error assumption as well as the presence of outliers residual analysis based on the standardized Pearson residuals is discussed The relevance of the approach is illustrated with a real data set where It is shown that zero-inflated negative binomial regression models seems to fit the data better than the Poisson counterpart (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Use of diamond-like carbon with tungsten (W-DLC) films as biocompatible material

Diamond-like carbon (DLC), also known as amorphous hydrogenated carbon (a-C:H), are a class of materials with excellent mechanical, tribological and biological properties. When the DLC films are enhanced with other elements, all of these properties can be changed within a certain range. In this work, reactive magnetron sputtering was used to deposit W-DLC (hydrogenated tungsten carbide) films on Ti6A14V (implant material). Many films were made using pure tungsten (99.99%) target and different plasmas processes, with different ratio among argon and methane. It was possible to change the films composition (from pure amorphous carbon to carbon enhanced with tungsten) according to ratio of argon and methane plasma. Between all films processed, the carbon films enhanced with tungsten showed good results in the ""in vitro"" cytotoxicity testing. Raman spectroscopy was used to analyze the chemical bonds kinds and the chemical bonds quantities. The Rutherford Back Scattering (RBS) was used to analyze the films compositions. The chemical inertness was analyzed by scanning voltametry. W-DLC thin films obtained in these processes have low roughness, high chemical resistance, good adhesion and show a high biocompatibility, when compared with common DLC thin films. Hence we have concluded that the tungsten concentrations in the DLC films make an important role to improve the properties of the DLC layers. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temperature dependence of the magnetic susceptibility for triangular-lattice antiferromagnets with spatially anisotropic exchange constants

We present the temperature dependence of the uniform susceptibility of spin-half quantum antiferromagnets on spatially anisotropic triangular lattices, using high-temperature series expansions. We consider a model with two exchange constants J1 and J2 on a lattice that interpolates between the limits of a square lattice (J1=0), a triangular lattice (J2=J1), and decoupled linear chains (J2=0). In all cases, the susceptibility, which has a Curie-Weiss behavior at high temperatures, rolls over and begins to decrease below a peak temperature Tp. Scaling the exchange constants to get the same peak temperature shows that the susceptibilities for the square lattice and linear chain limits have similar magnitudes near the peak. Maximum deviation arises near the triangular-lattice limit, where frustration leads to much smaller susceptibility and with a flatter temperature dependence. We compare our results to the inorganic materials Cs2CuCl4 and Cs2CuBr4 and to a number of organic molecular crystals. We find that the former (Cs2CuCl4 and Cs2CuBr4) are weakly frustrated and their exchange parameters determined through the temperature dependence of the susceptibility are in agreement with neutron-scattering measurements. In contrast, the organic materials considered are strongly frustrated with exchange parameters near the isotropic triangular-lattice limit.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Eight-state supersymmetric U model of strongly correlated fermions

An integrable eight-state supersymmetric U model is proposed, which is a fermion model with correlated single-particle and pair hoppings as well as uncorrelated triple-particle hopping. It has a gl(3/1) supersymmetry and contains one symmetry-preserving free parameter. The model is solved and the Bethe ansatz equations are obtained. [S0163-1829(98)00616-X].