A framework for understanding and generating integrated solutions for residential peak energy demand

Supplying peak energy demand in a cost effective, reliable manner is a critical focus for utilities internationally. Successfully addressing peak energy concerns requires understanding of all the factors that affect electricity demand especially at peak times. This paper is based on past attempts of proposing models designed to aid our understanding of the influences on residential peak energy demand in a systematic and comprehensive way. Our model has been developed through a group model building process as a systems framework of the problem situation to model the complexity within and between systems and indicate how changes in one element might flow on to others. It is comprised of themes (social, technical and change management options) networked together in a way that captures their influence and association with each other and also their influence, association and impact on appliance usage and residential peak energy demand. The real value of the model is in creating awareness, understanding and insight into the complexity of residential peak energy demand and in working with this complexity to identify and integrate the social, technical and change management option themes and their impact on appliance usage and residential energy demand at peak times.

Analysing student programs in the PHP intelligent tutoring system

Programming is a subject that many beginning students find difficult. The PHP Intelligent Tutoring System (PHP ITS) has been designed with the aim of making it easier for novices to learn the PHP language in order to develop dynamic web pages. Programming requires practice. This makes it necessary to include practical exercises in any ITS that supports students learning to program. The PHP ITS works by providing exercises for students to solve and then providing feedback based on their solutions. The major challenge here is to be able to identify many semantically equivalent solutions to a single exercise. The PHP ITS achieves this by using theories of Artificial Intelligence (AI) including first-order predicate logic and classical and hierarchical planning to model the subject matter taught by the system. This paper highlights the approach taken by the PHP ITS to analyse students’ programs that include a number of program constructs that are used by beginners of web development. The PHP ITS was built using this model and evaluated in a unit at the Queensland University of Technology. The results showed that it was capable of correctly analysing over 96 % of the solutions to exercises supplied by students.

Learning experiences for the transition to professional work

A better educated workforce contributes to a more informed and tolerant society with higher economic output, and this is also associated with higher levels of personal health, interpersonal trust and civic and social engagement. Against this backdrop, the role of universities has expanded, as university learning has moved beyond providing an education to preparing students for leadership positions within society. This article examines the effectiveness of final-year learning experiences from the perception of recent graduates. The aim is to improve undergraduate curriculum to facilitate the transition to professional employment. An online quantitative and qualitative survey instrument was developed to investigate graduates’ perceptions of their different learning experiences and assessment types in their senior year. Four hundred and twelve alumni from five universities completed the survey. Our results indicate that graduates value case studies, group work and oral presentations, and that graduates rate lectures and guest lectures from practitioners as the least important in their transition to work. The results validate the use of graduate capability frameworks and mapping the development of the skills over the curriculum. These results are useful for curriculum designers to assist with designing programmes on the transition to professional work.

Forward: Which childhood? Whose deficit?

A commentary on Whiteness studies, linguistic and cultural minority and Indigenous studies in early childhood language and literacy socialization. When the literature on ‘Whiteness’ first emerged in the 1990s, I was offended and skeptical. As an Asian who has lived in White-dominant cultures most of my life, my reflex was to say something like: “Yeah – they want to be ‘special’ too. After all our struggles to get beyond an unmarked place of deficit in the fields of disciplinary knowledge and social sciences – now they want ‘Whiteness’ as their own ethnic studies”...

Impaction of spray droplets on leaves: Influence of formulation and leaf character on shatter, bounce and adhesion

This paper combines experimental data with simple mathematical models to investigate the influence of spray formulation type and leaf character (wettability) on shatter, bounce and adhesion of droplets impacting with cotton, rice and wheat leaves. Impaction criteria that allow for different angles of the leaf surface and the droplet impact trajectory are presented; their predictions are based on whether combinations of droplet size and velocity lie above or below bounce and shatter boundaries. In the experimental component, real leaves are used, with all their inherent natural variability. Further, commercial agricultural spray nozzles are employed, resulting in a range of droplet characteristics. Given this natural variability, there is broad agreement between the data and predictions. As predicted, the shatter of droplets was found to increase as droplet size and velocity increased, and the surface became harder to wet. Bouncing of droplets occurred most frequently on hard to wet surfaces with high surface tension mixtures. On the other hand, a number of small droplets with low impact velocity were observed to bounce when predicted to lie well within the adhering regime. We believe this discrepancy between the predictions and experimental data could be due to air layer effects that were not taken into account in the current bounce equations. Other discrepancies between experiment and theory are thought to be due to the current assumption of a dry impact surface, whereas, in practice, the leaf surfaces became increasingly covered with fluid throughout the spray test runs.

Erratum: Multicentric carpotarsal osteolysis is caused by mutations clustering in the amino-terminal transcriptional activation domain of MAFB

(The American Journal of Human Genetics, 90, 494–501; March 9, 2012) In the published version of this article, the amino acid alteration caused by c.161C>T should have been notated as p.Ser54Leu and not p.Pro54Leu. The wild-type amino acid is incorrectly notated in the main text, in Table 2, and in Figure 4. The authors regret this error. Additionally, The Journal regrets that this erratum, originally requested in 2012, was not published in a timely fashion.

Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Integration of Geospatial and Built Environment - National Data Policy

Digital technology offers enormous benefits (economic, quality of design and efficiency in use) if adopted to implement integrated ways of representing the physical world in a digital form. When applied across the full extent of the built and natural world, it is referred to as the Digital Built Environment (DBE) and encompasses a wide range of approaches and technology initiatives, all aimed at the same end goal: the development of a virtual world that sufficiently mirrors the real world to form the basis for the smart cities of the present and future, enable efficient infrastructure design and programmed maintenance, and create a new foundation for economic growth and social well-being through evidence-based analysis. The creation of a National Data Policy for the DBE will facilitate the creation of additional high technology industries in Australia; provide Governments, industries and citizens with greater knowledge of the environments they occupy and plan; and offer citizen-driven innovations for the future. Australia has slipped behind other nations in the adoption and execution of Building Information Modelling (BIM) and the principal concern is that the gap is widening. Data driven innovation added $67 billion to the Australian economy in 20131. Strong open data policy equates to $16 billion in new value2. Australian Government initiatives such as the Digital Earth inspired “National Map” offer a platform and pathway to embrace the concept of a “BIM Globe”, while also leveraging unprecedented growth in open source / open data collaboration. Australia must address the challenges by learning from international experiences—most notably the UK and NZ—and mandate the use of BIM across Government, extending the Framework for Spatial Data Foundation to include the Built Environment as a theme and engaging collaboration through a “BIM globe” metaphor. This proposed DBE strategy will modernise the Australian urban planning and the construction industry. It will change the way we develop our cities by fundamentally altering the dynamics and behaviours of the supply chains and unlocking new and more efficient ways of collaborating at all stages of the project life-cycle. There are currently two major modelling approaches that contribute to the challenge of delivering the DBE. Though these collectively encompass many (often competing) approaches or proprietary software systems, all can be categorised as either: a spatial modelling approach, where the focus is generally on representing the elements that make up the world within their geographic context; and a construction modelling approach, where the focus is on models that support the life cycle management of the built environment. These two approaches have tended to evolve independently, addressing two broad industry sectors: the one concerned with understanding and managing global and regional aspects of the world that we inhabit, including disciplines concerned with climate, earth sciences, land ownership, urban and regional planning and infrastructure management; the other is concerned with planning, design, construction and operation of built facilities and includes architectural and engineering design, product manufacturing, construction, facility management and related disciplines (a process/technology commonly known as Building Information Modelling, BIM). The spatial industries have a strong voice in the development of public policy in Australia, while the construction sector, which in 2014 accounted for around 8.5% of Australia’s GDP3, has no single voice and because of its diversity, is struggling to adapt to and take advantage of the opportunity presented by these digital technologies. The experience in the UK over the past few years has demonstrated that government leadership is very effective in stimulating industry adoption of digital technologies by, on the one hand, mandating the use of BIM on public procurement projects while at the same time, providing comparatively modest funding to address the common issues that confront the industry in adopting that way of working across the supply chain. The reported result has been savings of £840m in construction costs in 2013/14 according to UK Cabinet Office figures4. There is worldwide recognition of the value of bringing these two modelling technologies together. Australia has the expertise to exercise leadership in this work, but it requires a commitment by government to recognise the importance of BIM as a companion methodology to the spatial technologies so that these two disciplinary domains can cooperate in the development of data policies and information exchange standards to smooth out common workflows. buildingSMART Australasia, SIBA and their academic partners have initiated this dialogue in Australia and wish to work collaboratively, with government support and leadership, to explore the opportunities open to us as we develop an Australasian Digital Built Environment. As part of that programme, we must develop and implement a strategy to accelerate the adoption of BIM processes across the Australian construction sector while at the same time, developing an integrated approach in concert with the spatial sector that will position Australia at the forefront of international best practice in this area. Australia and New Zealand cannot afford to be on the back foot as we face the challenges of rapid urbanisation and change in the global environment. Although we can identify some exemplary initiatives in this area, particularly in New Zealand in response to the need for more resilient urban development in the face of earthquake threats, there is still much that needs to be done. We are well situated in the Asian region to take a lead in this challenge, but we are at imminent risk of losing the initiative if we do not take action now. Strategic collaboration between Governments, Industry and Academia will create new jobs and wealth, with the potential, for example, to save around 20% on the delivery costs of new built assets, based on recent UK estimates.

Acute infectious diarrhea lessons learned from the past?

The Journal of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition (JPGN) has been at the forefront of many of the seminal advances into research on infectious diarrhea. In 1982, the first article of the JPGN was entitled “Oral Therapy for Dehydration in Diarrheal Diseases as a Global Problem” and has set the scene for several thousand subsequent articles. In his initial editorial, Finberg (1) posed several questions, which still have relevance 30 years later: 1. When is oral rehydration not appropriate, if ever? 2. What should be the composition of the oral solution and should there be more than one? 3. Should recommended practice be different in lesser-developed countries from those in developed countries? 4. Should the salts and glucose be prepackaged or should home supplies be used by instructed mothers? 5. When should standard feedings be resumed?

Exploring boredom proneness as a predictor of mobile phone use in the car

Driver distraction through mobile phone use in the car is a growing road safety concern. This paper presents findings of a survey (N = 528), which seeks to better understand the predictors of mobile phone use while driving in young (18-25) adult drivers. The survey investigated factors and motivations such as young adults' boredom proneness and their social connectedness, as well as their general mobile phone use and phone use in the car. We found, e.g., that boredom proneness plays a larger role (compared to social connectedness) in determining how much a young male uses their phone in the car (compared to young females). Despite the study’s limitations, this initial understanding allows us to better design and develop innovative HCI interventions that prevent young adults, particularly males, from phone use while driving in a way that appeals to their needs.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Small nerve fiber quantification in the diagnosis of diabetic sensorimotor polyneuropathy: Comparing corneal confocal microscopy with intraepidermal nerve fiber density

OBJECTIVE Quantitative assessment of small fiber damage is key to the early diagnosis and assessment of progression or regression of diabetic sensorimotor polyneuropathy (DSPN). Intraepidermal nerve fiber density (IENFD) is the current gold standard, but corneal confocal microscopy (CCM), an in vivo ophthalmic imaging modality, has the potential to be a noninvasive and objective image biomarker for identifying small fiber damage. The purpose of this study was to determine the diagnostic performance of CCM and IENFD by using the current guidelines as the reference standard. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Eighty-nine subjects (26 control subjects and 63 patients with type 1 diabetes), with and without DSPN, underwent a detailed assessment of neuropathy, including CCM and skin biopsy. RESULTS Manual and automated corneal nerve fiber density (CNFD) (P < 0.0001), branch density (CNBD) (P < 0.0001) and length (CNFL) (P < 0.0001), and IENFD (P < 0.001) were significantly reduced in patients with diabetes with DSPN compared with control subjects. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for identifying DSPN was 0.82 for manual CNFD, 0.80 for automated CNFD, and 0.66 for IENFD, which did not differ significantly (P = 0.14). CONCLUSIONS This study shows comparable diagnostic efficiency between CCM and IENFD, providing further support for the clinical utility of CCM as a surrogate end point for DSPN.

Water activity of poultry litter: Relationship to moisture content during a grow-out

Poultry grown on litter floors are in contact with their own waste products. The waste material needs to be carefully managed to reduce food safety risks and to provide conditions that are comfortable and safe for the birds. Water activity (Aw) is an important thermodynamic property that has been shown to be more closely related to microbial, chemical and physical properties of natural products than moisture content. In poultry litter, Aw is relevant for understanding microbial activity; litter handling and rheological properties; and relationships between in-shed relative humidity and litter moisture content. We measured the Aw of poultry litter collected throughout a meat chicken grow-out (from fresh pine shavings bedding material to day 52) and over a range of litter moisture content (10–60%). The Aw increased non-linearly from 0.71 to 1.0, and reached a value of 0.95 when litter moisture content was only 22–33%. Accumulation of manure during the grow-out reduced Aw for the same moisture content. These results are relevant for making decisions regarding litter re-use in multiple grow-outs as well as setting targets for litter moisture content to minimise odour, microbial risks and to ensure necessary litter physical conditions are maintained during a grow-out. Methods to predict Aw in poultry litter from moisture content are proposed.