Small area population disease burden

Small area health statistics has assumed increasing importance as the focus of population and public health moves to a more individualised approach of smaller area populations. Small populations and low event occurrence produce difficulties in interpretation and require appropriate statistical methods, including for age adjustment. There are also statistical questions related to multiple comparisons. Privacy and confidentiality issues include the possibility of revealing information on individuals or health care providers by fine cross-tabulations. Interpretation of small area population differences in health status requires consideration of migrant and Indigenous composition, socio-economic status and rural-urban geography before assessment of the effects of physical environmental exposure and services and interventions. Burden of disease studies produce a single measure for morbidity and mortality - disability adjusted life year (DALY) - which is the sum of the years of life lost (YLL) from premature mortality and the years lived with disability (YLD) for particular diseases (or all conditions). Calculation of YLD requires estimates of disease incidence (and complications) and duration, and weighting by severity. These procedures often mean problematic assumptions, as does future discounting and age weighting of both YLL and YLD. Evaluation of the Victorian small area population disease burden study presents important cross-disciplinary challenges as it relies heavily on synthetic approaches of demography and economics rather than on the empirical methods of epidemiology. Both empirical and synthetic methods are used to compute small area mortality and morbidity, disease burden, and then attribution to risk factors. Readers need to examine the methodology and assumptions carefully before accepting the results.

The co-segregation of psychosis and selected physical disorders within families of patients with psychosis versus well controls

While it has been reported that individuals with psychosis are at increased or decreased risk of various physical disorders such as cancer and rheumatoid arthritis, there has been less research on the co-segregation of physical disorders within the first-degree relatives of those with psychosis compared to relatives of well controls. The aim of this study was to examine these issues in an epidemiologically informed catchment-area based case-control study. Patients with psychosis were drawn from a prevalence study undertaken as part of the Australian National Mental Health Survey. In addition, we recruited well controls who resided in the same catchment area. For each subject, we drew pedigrees and used a structured checklist to assess the presence of selected psychiatric disorders, and selected disorders such as multiple sclerosis, epilepsy, spina bifida, thyroid disorders, diabetes, asthma and eczema. Data based on pedigrees from 293 individuals with psychosis and 292 well controls was available. As expected, the odds of havingschizophrenia and affective disorders were significantly increased in the families of cases versus controls. The odds of havingeczema were significantly reduced in the relatives of those with psychosis. All other disorders occurred with equal frequency in cases versus control pedigrees. Current theories of eczema suggest that an absence of early life exposure to antigens and infectious agents may fail to prime the na¨ıve immune system, and leave the person at increased risk of eczema. The results of this study suggest that genetic andror environmental factors that facilitate psychosis may protect against eczema. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Developing a reliable audit instrument to measure the physical environment for physical activity

Background: The physical environment plays an important role in influencing participation in physical activity, although which factors of the physical environment have the greatest effect on patterns of activity remain to be determined. We describe the development of a comprehensive instrument to measure the physical environmental factors that may influence walking and cycling in local neighborhoods and report on its reliability. Methods: Following consultation with experts from a variety of fields and a literature search, we developed a Systematic Pedestrian and Cycling Environmental Scan (SPACES) instrument and used it to collect data over a total of 1987 kilometers of roads in metropolitan Perth, Western Australia. The audit instrument is available from the first author on request. Additional environmental information was collected using desktop methods and geographic information systems (GIS) technology. We assessed inter- and intra-rater reliability of the instrument among the 16 observers who collected the data. Results: The observers reported that the audit instrument was easy to use. Both inter- and intra-rater reliability of the environmental scan instrument were generally high. Conclusions: Our instrument provides a reliable, practical, and easy to-use method for collecting detailed street-level data on physical environmental factors that are potential influences on walking in local neighborhoods.

Participation in recreational physical activity: Why do socioeconomic groups differ?

This qualitative study explored how influences on recreational physical activity (RPA) were patterned by socioeconomic position. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 10 males and 10 females in three socioeconomic groups (N = 60). Influences salient across all groups included previous opportunities, physical health, social assistance, safety, environmental aesthetics and urban design, physical and health benefits, and barriers of self-consciousness, low skill, and weather/time of year. Influences more salient to the high socioeconomic group included social benefits, achieving a balanced lifestyle, and the barrier of an unpredictable lifestyle. Influences more salient to the high and mid socioeconomic groups included efficacy, perceived need, activity demands, affiliation, emotional benefits, and the barrier of competing demands. Influences more salient to the low socioeconomic group included poor health and barriers of inconvenient access and low personal functioning. Data suggest that efforts to increase RPA in the population should include both general and socioeconomically targeted strategies.

Triggers of subarachnoid hemorrhage - Role of physical exertion, smoking, and alcohol in the Australasian Cooperative Research on Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Study (ACROSS)

Background and Purpose - Unaccustomed strenuous physical exertion can trigger myocardial infarction, but little is known about the mechanisms precipitating subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods - We identified all cases of first-ever SAH among the combined populations (2.8 million) of 4 urban centers in Australia and New Zealand. Information on the type, time, and intensity of exposures in the 26 hours before the onset of SAH was ascertained by structured interviews. We used the case-crossover technique to assess the risk of SAH associated with transient exposures of moderate to extreme physical exertion, heavy cigarette smoking, and binge alcohol consumption. Results - We registered 432 first-ever cases of SAH (62% women; mean age, 56.5 years). A definite time of onset of SAH was established for 393 patients (91%), and information on the levels of physical activity in the preceding 26 hours was obtained in 338 ( 78%). Of these patients, 19% engaged in moderate to extreme exertion (greater than or equal to5 metabolic equivalents) in the 2 hours before SAH, which was associated with a tripling in the risk of SAH (odds ratio [OR], 2.7; 95% CI, 1.6 to 4.6). There was no evidence of any association between heavy cigarette smoking or binge drinking and risk of SAH in the subsequent 2 hours ( OR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.4 to 3.7; and OR, 0.41; 95% CI, -infinity to 5.3). Habitual exercise did not appear to alter the risk of SAH associated with moderate to extreme exertion. Conclusions - Moderate to extreme physical exertion tripled the risk of SAH, but there was no association between transient heavy smoking or binge drinking and risk of SAH. These data suggest that heavy physical activity may trigger SAH.

Ecosystem process models at multiple scales for mapping tropical forest productivity

Quantifying mass and energy exchanges within tropical forests is essential for understanding their role in the global carbon budget and how they will respond to perturbations in climate. This study reviews ecosystem process models designed to predict the growth and productivity of temperate and tropical forest ecosystems. Temperate forest models were included because of the minimal number of tropical forest models. The review provides a multiscale assessment enabling potential users to select a model suited to the scale and type of information they require in tropical forests. Process models are reviewed in relation to their input and output parameters, minimum spatial and temporal units of operation, maximum spatial extent and time period of application for each organization level of modelling. Organizational levels included leaf-tree, plot-stand, regional and ecosystem levels, with model complexity decreasing as the time-step and spatial extent of model operation increases. All ecosystem models are simplified versions of reality and are typically aspatial. Remotely sensed data sets and derived products may be used to initialize, drive and validate ecosystem process models. At the simplest level, remotely sensed data are used to delimit location, extent and changes over time of vegetation communities. At a more advanced level, remotely sensed data products have been used to estimate key structural and biophysical properties associated with ecosystem processes in tropical and temperate forests. Combining ecological models and image data enables the development of carbon accounting systems that will contribute to understanding greenhouse gas budgets at biome and global scales.

The Mesozoic and Cenozoic motion of Adria (central Mediterranean): a review of constraints and limitations

This paper presents kinematic analysis on the motion of Adria, which is the continental mass that bridges Africa and Europe in the central Mediterranean. Palaeomagnetic data show a general coherence between the motion of Adria and Africa since the Late Paleozoic. This mutual motion, for the period from 120 Ma and the present, is verified by comparing inferred palaeolatitudes from relatively stable parts of Adria (Apulia, Gargano, Istria, and the Southern Alps) and the Hyblean Plateau, with latitudinal changes that are calculated from the motion of Africa with respect to hotspots. Additional constraints on the motion of Adria are provided from the Late Paleozoic-Early Mesozoic passive margin of Adria in the Ionian Sea. The seismic structure of the floor of the Ionian Sea resembles the structure of the oceanic crust in marginal back-arc basins, suggesting that it formed as a small ocean basin. Furthermore, the Ionian lithosphere in the Calabrian arc has been subjected to rapid rollback, which commonly occurs only when the subducting slab is made of oceanic lithosphere. This oceanic domain marks the Pennian-Triassic to Jurassic plate boundary between Adria and Africa, suggesting that a small amount of independent motion between Adria and Africa took place at that time. Since the Jurassic, Adria and Africa have shared a relatively coherent motion path. (C) 2004 Lavoisier SAS. All rights reserved.

Phylogeography of the cactophilic species Drosophila gouveai: demographic events and divergence timing in dry vegetation enclaves in eastern Brazil

Aim The aim of this study was to assess the causal mechanisms underlying populational subdivision in Drosophila gouveai, a cactophilic species associated with xeric vegetation enclaves in eastern Brazil. A secondary aim was to investigate the genetic effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations on these environments. Location Dry vegetation enclaves within the limits of the Cerrado domain in eastern Brazil. Methods We determined the mitochondrial DNA haplotypes of 55 individuals (representing 12 populations) based on sequence data of a 483-bp fragment from the cytochrome c oxidase subunit II (COII) gene. Phylogenetic and coalescent analyses were used to test for the occurrence of demographic events and to infer the time of divergence amongst genetically independent groups. Results Our analyses revealed the existence of two divergent subclades (G1 and G2) plus an introgressed clade restricted to the southernmost range of D. gouveai. Subclades G1 and G2 displayed genetic footprints of range expansion and segregated geographical distributions in south-eastern and some central highland regions, east and west of the Parana River valley. Molecular dating indicated that the main demographic and diversification events occurred in the late to middle Pleistocene. Main conclusions The phylogeographical and genetic patterns observed for D. gouveai in this study are consistent with changes in the distribution of dry vegetation in eastern Brazil. All of the estimates obtained by molecular dating indicate that range expansion and isolation pre-dated the Last Glacial Maximum, occurring during the late to middle Pleistocene, and were probably triggered by climatic changes during the Pleistocene. The current patchy geographical distribution and population subdivision in D. gouveai is apparently closely linked to these past events.

Observations of anti-winds in a deep alpine valley, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand

This paper presents observations of summertime anti-winds monitored under ideal conditions in the Lake Tekapo hydro-catchment situated in the central Southern Alps, New Zealand. Onset and cessation of anti-winds was observed to coincide with the change in phase of the surface limbs of thermally generated valley and mountain winds under settled anti-cyclonic conditions. Anti-winds were best developed in the early morning before surface heating and associated convective mixing of the valley atmosphere began to mask the boundaries between the surface based limb of the mountain-valley wind and the corresponding anti-wind. By mid-day, the anti-valley wind exceeded the height of the surrounding ridgeline and became embedded in the topographically channeled gradient wind. Observations presented here have both theoretical and applied implications with regard to the development of thermally generated wind systems in deep alpine valleys, and their role in the dispersion of air pollution.